… on a quiet day, I can hear her breathing

Category: Roger Hallam

  • Terrifying climate crisis report predicts 4 Billion Dead by 2050

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    https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2026/08/22/climate-crisis-report/

    Climate crisis — A new climate-focused campaign group, 4 Billion Dead, has launched in response to a buried report that its name could become reality. It urges people to wake up to our impending disaster of untold proportions.

    4 Billion Dead takes its name from a 2025 report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, in conjunction with the University of Exeter. Its superficially cheery-sounding name glosses over its worst predictions:

    Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature:

    Global risk management for human prosperity

    The report comes from professionals whose entire careers and profits are based on being able to accurately predict and “risk price” the future. It flew almost entirely under the radar.

    …

    This wasn’t helped by the fact that the report downplays its true findings, burying the worst deep in the appendix. Ultimately, it’s not in corporations’ interests to induce panic in the world. But it is needed.

    It was written for the insurance industry, the sector whose entire business depends on pricing risk accurately. At 3°C of warming by 2050, the report puts mortality risk at up to four billion people. That’s an “extreme” trajectory, albeit one that ongoing corporate and government policies globally broadly align with.

    If it sounds alarming, it is. If it sounds alarmist, that doesn’t make it any less true. Burying our heads in the sand now will cost us potentially billions of lives in decades to come. We cannot afford to dither.

    …

    Even in the scenario where global warming is limited to 2°C by 2050, the report still predicts “decimation.” That means 10% of humanity, or around 800 million people would be wiped out.

    At this level, which we’re almost certainly on track for without major reversals in greenhouse gas emissions, the consequences are still unfathomably drastic. The report predicts that at 2°C by 2050 we’ll see:

    • Severe reduction in several critical ecosystem services.
    • Major extinction events in some geographies.
    • Frequent global food and water crises.
    • Severe socio-political fragmentation in regions exposed to climate and/or nature impacts.
    • Failure of vulnerable states and mass mortality events in impacted areas.
    Image shows a table ranging from limited, through decimation, to extreme climate crises. At the upper extreme end, 3°C by 2050, four billion people die and half of global GDP is wiped out. Alongside ecological disaster it predicts high levels of extinction of higher-order life on Earth and frequent large scale mortality events.
    Screenshot of the predictions table from the report — via the Canary

    …

    Roger Hallam co-founded and co-ordinated campaign groups including Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain. His tireless, “revolutionary” campaigning efforts have made him globally famous and also a target of the British state. He’s been imprisoned multiple times for his peaceful activism and arrested countless more. Upon launching this newest campaign, 4 Billion Dead, Hallam said:

    This is just the beginning of something that will become very big. Because, as we have been saying for years now: there comes a point when people want the truth — when people become revolted by being lied to. For years now we have been told you can only mobilise people if you tone it down, if you give hope, because otherwise people will not be able to cope. The idea is that people are actually children — they have to be protected. They have to be told fairy tales.

    We are entering a time when millions of people have become sick of feeling sick. We finally realise we are going to get hurt anyway — that we are hurting so much already — that the pain of hearing the truth actually becomes a release.

    This call is a moment of liberation. At points like this history is made. Regimes fall. New ways explode into being. We all sense this is going to happen. Things cannot carry on as they are. Humans are not designed to just roll over and die. We are better than that.

    Hallam’s words are a reckoning and a call to action. Our governments and ‘leaders’ have let us down for far too long. It’s up to all of us to demand a better, greener, liveable future. It’s on all our heads.

    See the original article at https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2026/08/22/climate-crisis-report/

    Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark Richards
    Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark Richards
    Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London.
    Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London. (Photo: Handout/Chris J. Ratcliffe for Greenpeace via Getty Images)

  • 4 Billion Dead: The Insurance Industry Predicts Mass Death

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    This video is far longer than I like but so important. Are you listening Mr. Burnham?

    Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.
    Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.
    Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
    Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
    Power-mad orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Power-mad orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.

  • Roger Hallam – 4 Billion Dead – ‘Suicide: The Political & Legal Implications Of Endless Mass Death

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  • Go Fekk Yourself: The Air Conditioning “Debate”

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    Article by Roger Hallam republished from Roger Hallam. I have made a slight change in spelling to the title. View the original.

    The real question isn’t whether everyone should have air conditioning. It’s why we’re still accepting the choices offered by those overseeing ecological collapse.

    Go Fuck Yourself: The Air Conditioning "Debate"
    Francisco de Zurbarán – Agnus Dei.

    I sent this piece to the New Statesman. They turned it down within 2 hours. This is itself a central part of the story here — how the left’s thinks about “climate” is effectively the same as the way the Victorians thought about “sex”. Everyone knows something enormous and defining is going on. But nobody in polite company will say what it actually is, or what needs to happen. 

    So what is actually going on, and what does the actual situation demand of us?

    Participating in the “public debate” about whether everyone should have AC has the same logic as the Jewish councils negotiating with the Nazis over the Holocaust in World War Two. The framing is this: do you want to die this way or do you want to die that way? You choose. Do you want people to die by not having AC because it will get so hot they will die in their apartments, or do you want everyone to get AC, which will massively increase emissions so even more people will die through starvation and wars as food production collapses? For the record, put the question “what does 7 days of 40C heat in temperate climate countries — that is, Europe — do to food supplies” into an AI chatbot and you get the answer: a 20 to 50% reduction in food outputs for that year. And that is just the beginning. It goes on and on.

    The Jewish Councils were given the obscene proposition that they should cooperate with the Nazi authorities to send just a few people to the death camps in order to save everyone else. Except, of course, their tormentors were lying. Like today’s corporate elites on AC, the Nazis just wanted to reduce their “costs”. Duping the leaders of Jewish communities was a way to do this. And yes, as we now know, the plan was always to progressively exterminate the whole of the Jewish population. In the famous example of the Warsaw ghetto, it took the decline of population from over 300,000 to 60,000 for the penny to drop about what was actually going on — and for the remaining population to revolt: to die on their feet rather than like sheep.

    Bodies of Jews killed during the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising (1943)

    The Jewish political philosopher Hannah Arendt pointed out the indisputable fact that the Jewish Councils’ cooperation with their murderers significantly aided the ability of the Nazis to enact the mass murder of six million people. She was heavily criticised for merely stating what is, of course, obvious. But, as she tried to make clear, she was not making a moral judgement on their actions — she was simply pointing out what happens when you cooperate with such intensity of evil. In a sense, we could say “they did not know.” This level of deliberate genocide had never been enacted before in Europe.

    But this is the key point: we do know. After the Second World War, the core moral slogan of Western democracies became “never again” — meaning never again for anyone. We now know what humans are capable of. We cannot pretend. We know the Nazi Holocaust happened. And we know how it happened: by the systematic dehumanisation of the other. Core to this strategy is the framing of “do this and fewer people will die” — the disgusting cesspit of instrumental calculation.

    To the Unknown Painter (1983) by German artist Anselm Kiefer. The composition is a tribute to artists and artworks destroyed during the Nazi era.

    Which brings us to the disgusting cesspit of the mainstream media at the present moment: the framing of the AC debate. The elites, who have no intention of stopping their mass death project of blocking emergency reduction in emissions, use the ever-gullible liberal media class to create “debates” which, by design, take the real question off the agenda. That question being: how do we live a life of integrity when murderers are in the process of murdering all of humanity? The answer to this — the real question — is of course simple: we revolt. And critically, we revolt with no instrumentalist calculation. We revolt because our very humanity demands it. So if we are to die, we die on our feet, not like sheep.

    And then the divine paradox comes into play — virtue shows itself to be more effective in getting results than any vile instrumentalism which accepts the options presented to us by those in power.

    Let me give you a small example of how this works — of what happens when we choose to live in truth. Last week I was called up by Good Morning Britain to participate in this “Jewish Council” style discussion on whether or not everyone should have AC. I said that if I participated, I would say that 2C is now locked in and unless we overcome capitalism, we will starve to death. They decided not to have me on. I put what I had said on social media and got over 2 million views, landing me on the front page of Reddit.

    My action was a tiny echo of the action of one of the Jewish leaders who broke ranks in the Warsaw ghetto. He was taken to a meeting with Nazi officials and told to cooperate in murder to supposedly stop more murders from happening. He told the Nazis, words to the effect: go fuck yourselves. He was shot on the spot.

    Does anyone out there get it yet? You die on your feet, or you die like sheep. In the face of radical evil, those are the only choices. And being asked to participate in the murder of our children — billions of them — is the most obscene, most radical evil in human history.

    Isn’t it?

    Zanele Muholi. Portraits of dignity under oppression.

    Article by Roger Hallam republished from Roger Hallam. I have made a slightly change in spelling to the title. I agree that it is totally ridiculous to both accept the choices offered by the ultra-genocidalists and to actively participate in our own mass deaths instead of rebelling. I tried What does 7 days of 40C heat in Europe do to food supplies?

  • Roger Hallam: Makerfield and the Myth of the Moderate Left

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    While liberals hesitate, the clock doesn’t.

    I am republishing this article by Roger Hallam. I’ve not asked and hope that he doesn’t mind. I’ll pull it down – of course – if he objects. There is a brief comment of my own at the end.

    Going to Work, L.S Lowry

    The real division in western politics is between the pathological centre and challenge on the so-called “far” left and right — meaning political forces reasonably enough challenging the centre’s mass death project. Of course, the far right is based upon a con — its core spaces are dominated by the same billionaire-funded mass death agenda as the centre’s, but the sentiment on the ground is very similar to that on the left.

    The point is the level of maturation — whether these forces are confident enough to separate themselves from the hegemony of the “centre” so that a credible and coherent message can be presented to the electorate that they really are “not them”. As usual, the far right has a big head start.

    This requires that the leadership of Left spaces actually believe in themselves. When this happens — as in the case of Mamdani and Polanski — then the voter response is dramatic. The Green Party has risen from around 6% to nearly 20% in a year. Of course, this is helped by local factors — the collapse of Your Party and the tactical incompetence of Labour. But the structural factor is the key determinant — a political leader who directly addresses the decimation of the cultural and material means of life of the majority under monopoly finance capital. There is the conventional economic wave — the “internal contradictions of capital” — and then fusing with the new and final wave: the destruction of the biosphere.

    Inadequate maturation of a Left party that promises systemic change is again catastrophically on display in the Green Party’s weak response to the Makerfield by-election. If Zack had believed in his own rhetoric — that the party is taking over from Labour — then he would have shown charismatic and strategic leadership and been out there on the streets from day one, making the self-fulfilling prophecy that Labour can never look after the interests of working people, for all the reasons everyone knows.

    Instead, like docile peasants in the face of aristocratic charm (i.e. lies), the weight of tradition has again won the day. The myth held that the Left can only go through the motions of opposition to the centre, which has the divine (i.e. neo-liberal) right to rule.

    Join Me

    This failure is catastrophic because, as any realist worthy of the label knows, next year the world will hit 1.7°C, and this will signal the end of our civilisation, beginning with the collapse of insurance markets. Think of 2008, then multiply it by 100. Capital in the twenty-first century is the biggest Ponzi scheme in human history. It sells you prosperity while knowing it is destroying the very basis of life. This does not end well.

    The far right response will be to double down on denial and ever greater psychotic short-termism, as shown by the present Trump regime. In other words, the far right has only one agenda: treason — to bring mass death down onto the British people. After all, it only took Hitler twelve years to do this to Germany. It will take about a decade to do the same this time around, but with the truly appalling outcome of the permanent desolation of our country. You cannot “rebuild” without a functioning biosphere.

    Even the billionaire owned Daily Mail sees disaster ahead.

    What the Green Party has to do but won’t do is tell the people of Makerfield that they will die the slow way with Burnham and the fast way with Farage. Both are happy to have AMOC collapse locked in, for example. AMOC collapse means the end of the UK — no question about it. This is a physical, not a social, situation. You cannot grow potatoes in northern Norway, as one expert put it.

    Of course, telling the UK public this “blood, sweat and tears” reality is most likely to fail. Never underestimate the effects of forty years of neo-liberal programming. But that is not the point. The point is that there is an absolute time limit here. There is no more time. We are at 1.5°C and 2°C is locked in (0.5°C, for instance, will be added to global temperatures once the air pollution from stopping burning fossil fuels is removed).

    This means it’s now or never. You can jump over the fence and most likely get shot, or you can wait a little longer and be guaranteed to die in the gas chamber, which is the earth’s atmosphere with over 500ppm of CO₂ in it.

    Sometimes choices are limited.

    Let me finish on a rather British positive note. I recently spoke to a woman who was part of one of the many trials of people who have taken part in civil disobedience with Just Stop Oil. The convention now is that the judge will not allow any evidence relating to the criminality of the elites with regard to carbon emissions. Unsurprisingly, these show trials lead to guilty outcomes from juries. In one of those trials, I was given a five-year prison sentence. For some reason, in her trial, the judge allowed the presentation of evidence, including the “agreed fact” that at 3°C there will be at least 4 billion deaths — as predicted by a recent major report by the UK insurance industry. These people, we hopefully can all agree, deal in facts.

    The jury went out for less than an hour and came back with a not guilty verdict. After all, who wants their kids and grandkids subjected to the equivalent of 80 World Wars Twos in the next two generations? Maybe the good citizens of Makerfield don’t want that fate either. But first, they need Mr Polanski to tell them some of these “agreed facts”.

    There is a reason the “blood, sweat and tears” speech is the best-known of the twentieth century. Could it have something to do with being told the truth?

    If this political moment feels like a dead end, that’s because it is — my new book Suicide names it. From the structural failure of liberal democracy to the legal and moral case for resistance, this is the argument the mainstream won’t make.

    Order Suicide

    dizzy: I have estimated for myself when the World becomes uninhabitable. I don’t have any particular insight into this – I am not a climate scientist and know much less about climate than Roger Hallam – and have instead simply decided at what temperature life is unsustainable and considered likely warming to that point. In a sense that I’m not an expert is not that important because nobody really knows what’s going to happen, there are only theories, best guesses because it is yet to happen. Anyway, I agree with Roger that it is imminent, not long at all. The date I reached is 2060. It’s the rich who are driving climate destruction, the rich who are in charge of our governments and the solution is to do away with the rich. Tax them to extinction, use the money to address the climate. If we continue with Capitalism / Neo-Liberalism we have very little time.