This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Plans by the UK and France to recognise a Palestinian state at an upcoming international peace conference in New York this month have been shelved, marking yet another U-turn just weeks after both governments signalled support for Palestinian self-determination in response to Israel’s genocide in Gaza and ongoing ethnic cleansing in the occupied West Bank.

The three-day conference, scheduled between 17-20 June and co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, was initially framed as a diplomatic breakthrough that could see major Western powers recognise Palestinian statehood as a matter of principle. However, diplomats have now confirmed to the Guardian that the event will instead focus on vague “steps towards recognition.”

The reversal comes despite recent pledges by both London and Paris to re-evaluate their approach in light of Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza, which has killed over 55,000 Palestinians, most of them women and children, and the aggressive settlement expansion in the illegally occupied West Bank. Israeli officials have recently approved 22 new settlements, in what Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described as “a strategic move that prevents the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Read: US warns UK, France against recognising Palestinian State

French President Emmanuel Macron had previously declared Palestinian statehood a “moral duty and political requirement,” but according to officials who briefed Israeli counterparts this week, recognition will no longer be announced at the conference. Instead, it is being repositioned as a distant outcome contingent on a series of conditions, including a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the release of Israeli captives, and the restructuring of the Palestinian Authority to exclude Hamas.

The UK government, which has faced increasing pressure from MPs to take stronger measures against Israel, has taken a similar position.

According to the Guardian, British and French officials now view recognition not as a moral position or legal obligation, but as a reward contingent on the compliance of Palestinians with a framework shaped largely by Israel’s priorities. The Israeli public, however, has largely abandoned the idea of a two-state solution. According to figures cited by the Guardian, just 20 per cent of Israelis support the creation of a Palestinian state, while a staggering 56 per cent of Jewish Israelis back the “transfer” of Palestinian citizens of Israel to other countries, an explicit endorsement of ethnic cleansing.

Meanwhile, public support for Palestinian statehood continues to grow across Europe. Ireland, Spain and Norway formally recognised Palestine last year, and several Conservative MPs in Britain, including former Attorney General Sir Jeremy Wright, have broken ranks to endorse recognition.

Read: Labour MPs push Foreign Office to back Palestinian statehood at French-Saudi UN summit

Saudi Arabia, the conference’s co-host, has repeatedly accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, and there appears little prospect of Riyadh normalising relations with Tel Aviv. Analysts note that France’s vision of mutual recognition, Western states recognising Palestine in exchange for Arab normalisation with Israel, is rapidly collapsing in the face of Israeli escalation and public outrage across the Arab world.

Palestinians and their supporters are likely to view this latest shift as yet another instance of Western duplicity, offering rhetorical support while continuing to shield Israel from accountability. The Elders, a group of former global statesmen, urged Macron in an open letter to treat recognition as a “transformative step toward peace,” and not to view the self-determination of Palestinians as a chip to be negotiated with Israel.

Read: 80% of Israeli Jews support US President Trump’s proposal to ethnically cleanse Gaza, survey finds

This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.