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A growing share of Republican voters in the United States believe that Washington should end its decades-long programme of taxpayer-funded military aid to Israel, a new poll reveals. The figures are much higher among Democrat voters where the decline in support for Israel is unprecedented. 

Conducted by YouGov and the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project, and reported by Responsible Statecraft, the findings mark a sharp shift in Republican sentiment and reflect a broader erosion of public support for Israel in US politics.

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According to the survey, 42 per cent of Republican respondents oppose renewing the current Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which allocates $38 billion in US-funded weapons to Israel over ten years. By contrast, only 35 per cent support renewing the deal. The opposition is most pronounced among younger Republicans: 53 per cent of those aged 18 to 44 say US aid to Israel should end.

The poll, which surveyed 1,287 Republican voters in mid-November, arrives as the Biden administration considers whether to renew or renegotiate the existing US–Israel defence agreement, set to expire in 2028. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly seeks to extend the next MoU to 20 years—double the typical duration—but the findings suggest such a move would face even greater resistance. Among Republicans over 45, 40 per cent oppose a longer-term deal.

While the numbers may not yet signal a full-scale departure from pro-Israel orthodoxy among Republican voters, they do indicate mounting discomfort with the financial and political costs of the alliance. Though 51 per cent of Republicans support selling weapons to Israel, support declines sharply—to 38 per cent—when those weapons are paid for by US taxpayers.

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Media consumption habits also appear to influence attitudes: 53 per cent of Fox News viewers support taxpayer-funded military aid to Israel, compared with just 23 per cent of non-Fox viewers. Among the latter, 41 per cent explicitly oppose additional aid.

Despite deepening fractures within the Republican base, the poll reveals near-consensus on at least one issue: 59 per cent support independent US investigations into the killings of American civilians by Israeli forces or settlers. Only 15 per cent oppose such investigations.

The findings form part of a growing body of evidence showing declining bipartisan support for unconditional military assistance to Israel. Recent national surveys have documented historic declines in favourability towards Israel and increased opposition to US arms transfers.

Yet US policy remains largely unmoved. Successive administrations have continued to provide billions in military assistance to Israel, despite rising public scepticism. Critics argue this policy inertia is the result of the disproportionate influence wielded by pro-Israel lobbying organisations, which shield Israel from public scrutiny and democratic accountability.

These critics contend that, even as polls reflect surging opposition—particularly among younger Americans—Washington’s position remains firmly aligned with Israeli interests, undermining the stated US commitment to human rights and international law.

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