Analysis of Major Polls Shows Trump’s War on Iran Is Historically Unpopular
Original article by Brad Reed republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).
“Not merely negative-number-so-what unpopular, but worst-ever-support-for-war-when-it-started unpopular.”
President Donald Trump’s unprovoked and unconstitutional war against Iran is historically unpopular among US voters.
In an analysis published Friday, polling expert G. Elliott Morris calculated an average of eight high-quality polls conducted over the last week about the war and found just 38% of Americans approve of the military strikes against Iran, while 49% are opposed.
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Morris noted that there is simply no precedent for a US war being this unpopular from the very outset.
“The big takeaway from these numbers is that the new war in Iran is very unpopular,” he wrote. “Not merely negative-number-so-what unpopular, but worst-ever-support-for-war-when-it-started unpopular. With just 38% of Americans in favor, support for bombing Iran is lower than retrospective support for the war in Iraq was in 2014.”
Morris then offered some comparisons to past US military conflicts to show that the lack of support for Trump’s Iran war is simply in uncharted territory.
“No president in modern polling history has launched a major military operation with the public already against him,” he wrote. “After the September 11 attacks, a November 2001 Gallup poll found 90% of Americans approved of military action in Afghanistan, with just 5% opposed. The Gulf War in 1991 hit 79-80% approval. Gallup measured 76% support for the invasion of Iraq in March 2003 (Pew had it at 71%).”
Even comparatively unpopular operations, such as Trump’s strikes against Syria in 2017 or former President Barack Obama’s 2011 military operation in Libya, still had net-positive approvals at the times they occurred.
Morris added that Trump should be concerned about this because historically “wars only get less popular” over time as “casualties mount and costs become clear.”
CBS News polling director Anthony Salvanto on Tuesday also highlighted this phenomenon when analyzing a poll on the Iran war commissioned by his network that showed US voters’ support for the conflict dropped precipitously the longer they believed it would last.
“If you think it’s going to be a long conflict, months, even years… the numbers tilt toward disapproval overall,” he said.
Trump so far has not offered any kind of timeline for his war against Iran, and Politico reported on Wednesday that the US military is preparing for the conflict to last until at least September.
Trump on Friday insisted he would not end the conflict with Iran until its government offered its “unconditional surrender.”
Original article by Brad Reed republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).
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