Exclusive: Economic harm of CO2 pollution from Rosebank and Jackdaw forecast to far outweigh any boost to UK
The climate damage caused by developing the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields under consideration by the UK government would destroy their economic benefits many times over, according to an analysis.
It estimates the economic damage caused by the carbon pollution from the oil and gas produced would be between £119bn and £336bn in the coming decades, compared with the £28.7bn in value to the UK estimated by Adura, the fossil fuel company promoting the new fields.
The assessment applies peer-reviewed research on how rising temperatures harm economies to the production estimates for the fields from the company. The figures are likely to be underestimates, as they do not include losses from amplified extreme weather, sea level rise or climate deaths. The analysis has been submitted to the Rosebank consultation and to an academic journal.
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The argument that approving Rosebank and Jackdaw would reduce UK bills and improve energy security is a “delusion”, according to energy experts, as they are internationally traded commodities. Proponents of new drilling argue it would boost the UK economy, but the new analysis indicates this would be outweighed by long-term economic damage.
“The numbers presented here show there’s going to be a very strong destruction of [economic] value above and beyond what Rosebank and Jackdaw could generate for the UK,” said Luke Hatton, at Imperial College London, who conducted the analysis. “The alternative is to really double down on clean energy technologies.” The UK’s net zero sector has grown three times faster than the overall UK economy in recent years.
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