Tag: Roger Hallam

  • Terrifying climate crisis report predicts 4 Billion Dead by 2050

    Spread the love

    https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2026/08/22/climate-crisis-report/

    Climate crisis — A new climate-focused campaign group, 4 Billion Dead, has launched in response to a buried report that its name could become reality. It urges people to wake up to our impending disaster of untold proportions.

    4 Billion Dead takes its name from a 2025 report by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, in conjunction with the University of Exeter. Its superficially cheery-sounding name glosses over its worst predictions:

    Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature:

    Global risk management for human prosperity

    The report comes from professionals whose entire careers and profits are based on being able to accurately predict and “risk price” the future. It flew almost entirely under the radar.

    …

    This wasn’t helped by the fact that the report downplays its true findings, burying the worst deep in the appendix. Ultimately, it’s not in corporations’ interests to induce panic in the world. But it is needed.

    It was written for the insurance industry, the sector whose entire business depends on pricing risk accurately. At 3°C of warming by 2050, the report puts mortality risk at up to four billion people. That’s an “extreme” trajectory, albeit one that ongoing corporate and government policies globally broadly align with.

    If it sounds alarming, it is. If it sounds alarmist, that doesn’t make it any less true. Burying our heads in the sand now will cost us potentially billions of lives in decades to come. We cannot afford to dither.

    …

    Even in the scenario where global warming is limited to 2°C by 2050, the report still predicts “decimation.” That means 10% of humanity, or around 800 million people would be wiped out.

    At this level, which we’re almost certainly on track for without major reversals in greenhouse gas emissions, the consequences are still unfathomably drastic. The report predicts that at 2°C by 2050 we’ll see:

    • Severe reduction in several critical ecosystem services.
    • Major extinction events in some geographies.
    • Frequent global food and water crises.
    • Severe socio-political fragmentation in regions exposed to climate and/or nature impacts.
    • Failure of vulnerable states and mass mortality events in impacted areas.
    Image shows a table ranging from limited, through decimation, to extreme climate crises. At the upper extreme end, 3°C by 2050, four billion people die and half of global GDP is wiped out. Alongside ecological disaster it predicts high levels of extinction of higher-order life on Earth and frequent large scale mortality events.
    Screenshot of the predictions table from the report — via the Canary

    …

    Roger Hallam co-founded and co-ordinated campaign groups including Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion and Insulate Britain. His tireless, “revolutionary” campaigning efforts have made him globally famous and also a target of the British state. He’s been imprisoned multiple times for his peaceful activism and arrested countless more. Upon launching this newest campaign, 4 Billion Dead, Hallam said:

    This is just the beginning of something that will become very big. Because, as we have been saying for years now: there comes a point when people want the truth — when people become revolted by being lied to. For years now we have been told you can only mobilise people if you tone it down, if you give hope, because otherwise people will not be able to cope. The idea is that people are actually children — they have to be protected. They have to be told fairy tales.

    We are entering a time when millions of people have become sick of feeling sick. We finally realise we are going to get hurt anyway — that we are hurting so much already — that the pain of hearing the truth actually becomes a release.

    This call is a moment of liberation. At points like this history is made. Regimes fall. New ways explode into being. We all sense this is going to happen. Things cannot carry on as they are. Humans are not designed to just roll over and die. We are better than that.

    Hallam’s words are a reckoning and a call to action. Our governments and ‘leaders’ have let us down for far too long. It’s up to all of us to demand a better, greener, liveable future. It’s on all our heads.

    See the original article at https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2026/08/22/climate-crisis-report/

    Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark Richards
    Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark Richards
    Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London.
    Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London. (Photo: Handout/Chris J. Ratcliffe for Greenpeace via Getty Images)
  • Go Fekk Yourself: The Air Conditioning “Debate”

    Spread the love

    Article by Roger Hallam republished from Roger Hallam. I have made a slight change in spelling to the title. View the original.

    The real question isn’t whether everyone should have air conditioning. It’s why we’re still accepting the choices offered by those overseeing ecological collapse.

    Go Fuck Yourself: The Air Conditioning "Debate"
    Francisco de Zurbarán – Agnus Dei.

    I sent this piece to the New Statesman. They turned it down within 2 hours. This is itself a central part of the story here — how the left’s thinks about “climate” is effectively the same as the way the Victorians thought about “sex”. Everyone knows something enormous and defining is going on. But nobody in polite company will say what it actually is, or what needs to happen. 

    So what is actually going on, and what does the actual situation demand of us?


    Participating in the “public debate” about whether everyone should have AC has the same logic as the Jewish councils negotiating with the Nazis over the Holocaust in World War Two. The framing is this: do you want to die this way or do you want to die that way? You choose. Do you want people to die by not having AC because it will get so hot they will die in their apartments, or do you want everyone to get AC, which will massively increase emissions so even more people will die through starvation and wars as food production collapses? For the record, put the question “what does 7 days of 40C heat in temperate climate countries — that is, Europe — do to food supplies” into an AI chatbot and you get the answer: a 20 to 50% reduction in food outputs for that year. And that is just the beginning. It goes on and on.

    The Jewish Councils were given the obscene proposition that they should cooperate with the Nazi authorities to send just a few people to the death camps in order to save everyone else. Except, of course, their tormentors were lying. Like today’s corporate elites on AC, the Nazis just wanted to reduce their “costs”. Duping the leaders of Jewish communities was a way to do this. And yes, as we now know, the plan was always to progressively exterminate the whole of the Jewish population. In the famous example of the Warsaw ghetto, it took the decline of population from over 300,000 to 60,000 for the penny to drop about what was actually going on — and for the remaining population to revolt: to die on their feet rather than like sheep.

    Bodies of Jews killed during the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising (1943)

    The Jewish political philosopher Hannah Arendt pointed out the indisputable fact that the Jewish Councils’ cooperation with their murderers significantly aided the ability of the Nazis to enact the mass murder of six million people. She was heavily criticised for merely stating what is, of course, obvious. But, as she tried to make clear, she was not making a moral judgement on their actions — she was simply pointing out what happens when you cooperate with such intensity of evil. In a sense, we could say “they did not know.” This level of deliberate genocide had never been enacted before in Europe.

    But this is the key point: we do know. After the Second World War, the core moral slogan of Western democracies became “never again” — meaning never again for anyone. We now know what humans are capable of. We cannot pretend. We know the Nazi Holocaust happened. And we know how it happened: by the systematic dehumanisation of the other. Core to this strategy is the framing of “do this and fewer people will die” — the disgusting cesspit of instrumental calculation.

    To the Unknown Painter (1983) by German artist Anselm Kiefer. The composition is a tribute to artists and artworks destroyed during the Nazi era.

    Which brings us to the disgusting cesspit of the mainstream media at the present moment: the framing of the AC debate. The elites, who have no intention of stopping their mass death project of blocking emergency reduction in emissions, use the ever-gullible liberal media class to create “debates” which, by design, take the real question off the agenda. That question being: how do we live a life of integrity when murderers are in the process of murdering all of humanity? The answer to this — the real question — is of course simple: we revolt. And critically, we revolt with no instrumentalist calculation. We revolt because our very humanity demands it. So if we are to die, we die on our feet, not like sheep.

    And then the divine paradox comes into play — virtue shows itself to be more effective in getting results than any vile instrumentalism which accepts the options presented to us by those in power.

    Let me give you a small example of how this works — of what happens when we choose to live in truth. Last week I was called up by Good Morning Britain to participate in this “Jewish Council” style discussion on whether or not everyone should have AC. I said that if I participated, I would say that 2C is now locked in and unless we overcome capitalism, we will starve to death. They decided not to have me on. I put what I had said on social media and got over 2 million views, landing me on the front page of Reddit.

    My action was a tiny echo of the action of one of the Jewish leaders who broke ranks in the Warsaw ghetto. He was taken to a meeting with Nazi officials and told to cooperate in murder to supposedly stop more murders from happening. He told the Nazis, words to the effect: go fuck yourselves. He was shot on the spot.

    Does anyone out there get it yet? You die on your feet, or you die like sheep. In the face of radical evil, those are the only choices. And being asked to participate in the murder of our children — billions of them — is the most obscene, most radical evil in human history.

    Isn’t it?

    Zanele Muholi. Portraits of dignity under oppression.

    Article by Roger Hallam republished from Roger Hallam. I have made a slightly change in spelling to the title. I agree that it is totally ridiculous to both accept the choices offered by the ultra-genocidalists and to actively participate in our own mass deaths instead of rebelling. I tried What does 7 days of 40C heat in Europe do to food supplies?

  • We are all going to die, you f*cking idiots

    Spread the love

    https://rogerhallam.com/our-grandchildren-will-starve

    Good News: Our Grandchildren Will Starve, Not Our Children

    The most extreme climate scenarios are off, according to scientists in the conservative IPCC. However, the Godfather of Climate Science says otherwise.

    Good news from The Times: our grandchildren will starve to death rather than our children. The new worst case is just 3.5C. Phew.

    Adam Vaughan, Most Apocalyptic Climate Scenario Thrown Out by Experts, The Times, 11 May 2026.

    Firstly, let’s remember what a 3.5C world actually means.

    1. Mass food system collapse, particularly in the Global South.
    2. Vast areas of Africa, South and West Asia will become uninhabitable within the lifetimes of people already born. Translation: billions will die from impending poverty and disaster.

    That is what this headline is supposedly reassuring us of.

    Secondly, this report is not telling the truth about the science because it is based on outdated models. Even Trump jumped on it to advance his end-times fascist agenda.

    To understand why both Trump and the Times are deeply wrong about where we are heading, let’s turn to the godfather of climate science, James Hansen, and look at one of his latest papers on climate sensitivity.

    In May 2025, Hansen published a paper on Earth’s albedo (the reflectivity of solar radiation bounced back into space). Over the past 25 years of precise satellite data, Earth’s albedo has declined by 0.5%, leading to an increase of 1.7 watts per square metre of absorbed solar energy. Hansen describes this as a BFD (Big Fucking Deal), and he is right. That single number, in forcing terms, is equivalent to an additional 138 parts per million of CO2.

    Clouds reflect sunlight back into space. Fewer clouds, or thinner clouds, means more solar energy reaches the surface and stays there. As the planet warms, evidence now shows that cloud cover is decreasing and, crucially, that this decrease is itself a response to warming. In other words, warming reduces clouds, which in turn cause more warming, which further reduces clouds. This is what climate scientists mean by a feedback loop, and this one is a fucking big one.

    And a big cloud feedback means the planet is far more sensitive to CO2 than the IPCC’s standard figures suggest. The IPCC’s best estimate for climate sensitivity — the amount of warming you get from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 — is 3°C. Hansen’s three independent lines of evidence (of which the albedo data is one), all point to 4.5°C. The difference between 3°C and 4.5°C is the difference between devastation and extinction.

    The corporate media has barely engaged with this work, and when it has, it has often cast doubt on its truth. At the end of the climate sensitivity paper, Hansen notes:

    “Criticisms of the Acceleration paper in the media did not address the physics in our three assessments of climate sensitivity. Instead, criticisms were largely ad hoc opinions, even ad hominem attacks. How can science reporting have descended to this level? Climate science is now so complex, with many sub-disciplines, that the media must rely on opinions of climate experts. Although there are thousands of capable scientists in these disciplines, the media have come to depend on a handful of scientists, a clique of climate scientists who are willing, or even eager, to be the voice of the climate science community. But are they representative of the total community, of capable scientists who focus on climate science?”


    The Problem of Fragmented Science

    A key problem of scientific understanding is that it requires slicing reality into manageable chunks. Take “the doubling of CO2.” The slice aids understanding but paradoxically kills it too. Attending to the part deflects attention from the whole. Space. Time. The full arc of what’s coming.

    So when Hansen and colleagues write that climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 is 4.5°C, and that sensitivity as low as 3°C is excluded with greater than 99 percent confidence — they stop there. Slice completed. No return to the whole. No wonder the media shrugs. So what.

    Here’s the whole.

    1. Doubling CO2 means going from 280ppm to 560ppm. We’re at 420ppm now. At current trajectory — roughly 40ppm additional per decade — we hit 560ppm around 2055. That’s 4.5°C by roughly 2060. Not 2100. 2060. Hansen also shows Earth’s albedo has already darkened by 0.5%, an extra 1.7 W/m² of absorbed solar energy. The system is already running hotter than the models admit.
    2. Time doesn’t stop at 2060. At those temperatures, natural feedbacks (clouds, ice, permafrost) accelerate. There is no equilibrium, only continuation.
    3. Above 5°C, effective human extinction is locked in. We are on that path.
    4. Facts alone don’t move humans. Emotion does. We are human, after all. So the headline that would actually communicate the whole truth? “We are all going to die, you fucking idiots.”

    In my recent paper with the 4 Billion Dead team, we examine what an All Systems Approach could look like to counter this fragmented thinking.

    …

    See the full original article at https://rogerhallam.com/our-grandchildren-will-starve

  • Labour keeps knocking. The planet keeps burning. Don’t open the door.

    Spread the love
    Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.
    Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.

    Roger Hallam comments on the Greens indecision on how to oppose Andy Burnham at the Makerfield by-election.

    You may have noticed that I am supportive of the Green Party and Zack Polanski. Despite seriously considering joining the Green Party, I have not yet done it and I might actually be a liability. I have also seriously considered joining Your Party but can’t see that happening now unfortunately. I probably won’t ever join a political party and expect that some of you can understand why.

    The question is to what extent should the Green Party oppose Andy Burnham in the Makerfield by-election. I agree with Roger Hallam that the Labour Party is finished and should be opposed without holding back. The concern is that Greens actions could facilitate a Reform win. I raise three points:

    Firstly, it is the Labour Party insisting that Andy Burnham fights and wins an election to participate in a leadership challenge. It is Labour Party rules and the Labour Party NEC can change those rules if it was so minded.

    Secondly, so what if Burnham loses to Reform? it has been clear for years that Starmer & Co’s preferred successor is Wes Streeting. There is no certainty that Andy Burnham will defeat Streeting in a leadership contest and there are suggestions of dirty tricks already. A Reform win is instead of a win for Reform in a red rosette. So what if Burnham doesn’t get to compete?

    Third, Reform’s position is precarious as is Labour’s, things can change drastically during an election campaign and Farage is already on the missing list. A strong campaign by the Green’s would show that they’re taking the fight to Reform and Labour, that they’re serious about gaining power.

    dizzy

    Vote Labour for Genocide.
    Vote Labour for Genocide.