Warnings about the catastrophic effects of vital ecosystems collapsing were not published under previous PM
UK spy chiefs warned government ministers of the catastrophic impacts on national security from the collapse of vital ecosystems around the world, driven by the climate crisis and the overexploitation of nature. But their report, which was supposed to be published almost a year ago, was suppressed under Keir Starmer. Now the government is briefing foreign ministers from other countries on the findings, with a view to gathering global support for more concerted action on the risks.
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The report, which was originally commissioned under the previous Tory government, looked at the potential consequences of a range of scenarios such as the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, which scientists have warned could be close to switching from a rainforest to a savannah-like system under the impact of heating and deforestation. The authors found these could result in food shortages in the UK, which imports about 40% of its food. The report also reviewed the development of new pandemics from areas deforested and overexploited, border disputes among countries affected by the climate crisis, increased Russian and Chinese influence over critical mineral supply chains, and civil tensions within the UK as these impacts play out.
Collapsing ecosystems overseas – the Congo basin was also a focus – could result in mass migration as people are forced to leave areas no longer habitable, triggering potential unrest and “more polarised and populist politics in the UK and its allies”, along with “more strain on national infrastructure”, and conflict could result from countries fighting over scarce food supplies. While the risk of nuclear war is still regarded as small, it is a potential impact.
One person who had seen the whole report described it to the Guardian as “apocalyptic”.