Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth testifies during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on April 30, 2026. (Photo by Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Analysts have also cast serious doubt on the Pentagon’s official estimate of the Iran war’s price tag, with one arguing the conflict cost more than $25 billion “in the first two weeks.”
Iran’s foreign minister on Friday accused the Pentagon of deliberately misleading the American public with its formal estimate that the war on Iran has so far cost the US $25 billion—a number that the chief Iranian diplomat said was a fourfold undercount of the conflict’s true price tag.
“The Pentagon is lying,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on social media. “[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s gamble has directly cost America $100 billion so far, four times what is claimed. Indirect costs for US taxpayers are FAR higher. Monthly bill for each American household is $500 and rising fast.”
Outside analysts’ estimates of the illegal war’s total cost to American taxpayers have varied widely, but most put the number higher than the $25 billion offered by the Pentagon.
The Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, estimated earlier this month that the Pentagon was likely to have spent more than $33 billion during the first 39 days of the conflict. An April 10 assessment released by the conservative American Enterprise Institute after the ceasefire began put the war’s cost between $25 billion and $35 billion.
Independent policy analyst Stephen Semler has estimated that the US spent nearly $29 billion on the Iran war during just the first two weeks of the conflict—an average of $2.1 billion per day.
“Hegseth lied to Congress when he said the Iran war has cost $25 billion,” Semler wrote Thursday on social media. “It cost more than that in the first two weeks.”
On top of direct war spending, lawmakers and experts have pointed to indirect costs of war in the form of higher gas and food prices paid by American consumers.
US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said on the House floor on Thursday that the Iran war has cost Americans over $630 billion—or $5,000 per household on average—“because of the increase in the price of food, the price of gas, the price of electricity.”
“We need to end this war now, and help the American people reduce costs,” said Khanna.
Linda Bilmes, a public policy expert at the Harvard Kennedy School, said in early April that the Iran war’s cost to the US is likely to exceed $1 trillion in the long-term, when accounting for veterans’ care and other outlays.
“It is hard to measure the exact cost,” said Bilmes. “But based on what we know now, it is costing about two billion dollars a day in short-term, upfront costs, which is the tip of the iceberg.”
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Strait of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.
Public sector pensions have ploughed billions into opaque investment funds which are financing ruinous gas projects on the US Gulf Coast
In brief
UK public sector pension schemes are bankrolling rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas production in the US South, posing a major climate threat
US gas projects are reaping rewards from price shocks caused by Trump’s war in Iran
Gas terminals are frequently built in poor neighbourhoods, causing health problems in nearby communities
Trump’s war in Iran has boosted the fortunes of US gas companies – and UK savers are unwittingly bankrolling their expansion.
Sixty local government pension funds have invested a total of £8bn into funds paying for the rapid construction of gas infrastructure on the Gulf Coast of the US. Residents say these terminals are already causing health problems in their communities. Experts say they represent one of the biggest threats to the future of the planet.
Over 7 million school staff, civil servants and other public sector workers either save with, or receive their pension from, local government pension schemes. Our revelations have sparked concerns among local councillors, who have urged fund managers to divest from fossil fuels.
While the companies behind these projects are enjoying a boost from the war in Iran, they could tumble in value as the world switches to renewable forms of energy. Councillor Andrew Scopes, who sits on an advisory panel for West Yorkshire Pension Fund, said: “We will still be paying benefits out in 60 years’ time. We need to be looking beyond the possible short-term gains, at the long-term risk.”
Members of the scheme were dismayed to find what they were bankrolling. “The UK could be funding a safer, healthier future for all via renewable energy generated in the UK that is cheap, safe, clean and owned by us,” said Jane Thewlis, a retired social worker.
The news comes as the government is making changes to the law governing pension schemes. During a debate in the House of Lords, peers from several parties raised the issue of pension fund investments in climate-wrecking companies.
Baroness Hayman, a crossbench peer, told us: “Many UK pension funds are already reducing their exposure to fossil fuels, recognising the risks these investments pose. But with £3 trillion held in UK pensions, and the climate and nature challenge growing, there is a clear opportunity to better protect savers from rising financial and environmental risks.”
A gas explosion
The giant white orbs containing liquefied natural gas (LNG) look almost alien. Scores of these terminals are popping up along the 1,200km Louisiana and Texas coastline, a building frenzy turbo-charged by Trump’s second term. If all the planned terminals are built, the LNG produced in the US would generate the same amount of greenhouse gases each year as every EU country combined, says Jeremy Symons, a former official at the US environmental regulator.
UK pension funds have supported this expansion for years. In 2019, a little-known infrastructure fund called Stonepeak put up $1.3bn to complete the construction of the Calcasieu Pass gas terminal in the south-west corner of Louisiana. Twenty miles inland, building has started on another terminal also funded by Stonepeak.
Calcasieu Pass LNG terminalVenture Global
UK savers in 12 local government pension schemes, including West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and Worcestershire, have invested over £360m in Stonepeak funds that financed these plants, according to figures from council records and data provider Pitchbook.
Since starting operations, Calcasieu Pass has reported hundreds of emissions violations and paid authorities a $245,000 settlement. That’s unlikely to make much difference to its owner, Venture Global, a major Trump donor. Its shares rocketed by more than 80% after the US and Israel started bombing targets in Iran.
Roishetta Ozane, a resident turned activist, lives near both terminals. She told us that pollution from the nearby gas, petrochemicals and oil infrastructure has caused asthma and an increase of cancer in the area – an account borne out by academic research.
“We’re seeing more women develop health issues that are living near these facilities, having pre-term babies or having miscarriages,” she said. “We’re seeing our air quality deteriorate. We have a drinking water crisis.” She said residents had to deal with noise pollution from construction and the flaring of excess gas from the terminals.
Roishetta Ozane (second left)
Two of her children have asthma. She told us the doctor said pollution may have exacerbated the seizures suffered by her son, who died last year. “When my son passed away, I was like, what are we doing this for?” she said. “We’re fighting for our children, for our future, for our community, but yet they’re dying.”
Further down the coast, a huge fireball at Freeport LNG in June 2022 made the risks of these installations vividly clear. IFM Global Infrastructure Fund – which counts among its investors more than 20 UK pension funds, including Avon, East Sussex and Aberdeen – paid $1.3bn to help build Freeport LNG in 2013. It continues to hold a stake in the project.
Travelling south, the construction boom continues. Right next to the Mexican border, Rio Grande LNG is building a sprawling complex that the NGO Sierra Club estimates will match the emissions of 50 coal-fired power plants every year. Campaigners say the project is already contributing to habitat loss in an area critical for endangered animals such as ocelots, falcons and sea turtles.
French bank Société Générale backed out of funding the controversial project. But it was able to proceed thanks to a $5bn commitment from BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners Fund V – which is supported by nearly £200m of UK savers’ pensions, from Waltham Forest to Greater Manchester.
In total, we found eight US-based LNG terminals backed by UK pension money. Taken together, those terminals would give rise to more CO₂ every year than the entire UK several times over, according to Sierra Club data.
A spokesperson for IFM Investors told us that the fund publicly discloses its infrastructure equity assets. They added: “Natural gas is increasingly utilised as a transition fuel for decarbonisation globally … These assets benefit from investment from long-term, trusted capital partners like pension funds, who can reinvest in them and pave the way for carbon emissions reduction.”
LNG is often promoted as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels. However, a peer-reviewed study found it is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over a 20-year period compared with coal.
Worcestershire Pension Fund said it invests through structures that mean “exposure to any single asset is indirect, limited, and a very small component of a broader portfolio.” It said the Stonepeak fund in question “publishes detailed annual reports and complies fully with statutory disclosure requirements”.
A greener pension
When it comes to curbing carbon emissions, council pension funds and campaigners have tended to focus on selling their shares in companies like BP and Shell. But a growing portion of pension funds are invested in so-called “private markets”. Typically this involves putting money into a number of big funds, which in turn invest in everything from private equity to property to company loans.
Private markets can offer healthy returns. They’re also something of a black hole for information, which makes following the money much more difficult. And they’re often excluded from the scope of council climate commitments.
The upshot is that even pension schemes that have promised not to invest in fossil fuels have ploughed money into funds that are paying for major gas projects.
Take Waltham Forest Pension Fund, which in 2016 became the first local authority to make such a commitment. Simon Miller, a former councillor who chaired the pension fund committee, said the council already had a number of green goals to improve the lives of residents. “[But] we had a pension fund that was merrily invested in fossil fuels that was absolutely out of lockstep with the political direction and philosophy of the borough.”
The council’s pension fund proceeded to sell its investments in fossil fuel companies over the following five years.
According to its latest report, however, Waltham Forest is still invested in funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners that have financed Rio Grande LNG and Allete, which owns an 18,000-acre coal mine in North Dakota.
Lewisham Pension Fund has also brought down the emissions associated with its investments after committing to sell its holdings in fossil fuel companies. But it remains invested in a huge infrastructure fund operated by JP Morgan Asset Management. While this fund has substantial investments in renewable energy, it continues to hold a 50% stake in Third Coast, which spilled over 1 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2023.
In February 2024, West Yorkshire Pension Fund said it would no longer lend to the oil, gas and coal sector. According to the new standards set by the authority, councillor Andrew Scopes said, the decision to invest in a Stonepeak fund that bankrolled an LNG plant on Ozane’s doorstep would be “very difficult to justify”.
Jane Thewlis, a campaigner and member of the scheme, said: “We are particularly concerned if [West Yorkshire Pension Fund] is funding LNG infrastructure in the US, which is not compatible with a livable climate. We expect our elected representatives to use our money to fund a safe future – not to hasten the end of humanity.”
West Yorkshire Pension Fund said its environmental, social and governance policy “takes account of the current status and role of gas and oil within the energy transition, particularly with regard to reliability, affordability and coal displacement”. It said LNG is seen as “a bridge between today’s fossil‑fuel‑dominated energy system and a future low or zero‑carbon one”.
JP Morgan, Stonepeak and Waltham Forest council declined to comment on the record. Lewisham council said it cannot comment in a pre-election period. Third Coast, the LNG port operators, Global Infrastructure Partners and other local councils did not respond to requests for comment.
What next?
We are providing our research to campaigners and pension fund advisory panels so they can challenge decision makers on investments in infrastructure funds
New rules mean that council pension funds will be combined into pension fund pools, limiting councillors’ power over investment decisions. We will investigate what that means for funds that have committed to invest responsibly
Parliament is discussing the first of a number of pension reforms, where campaigners are pushing for greater recognition of climate risk
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Iranians carry flags as they participate in a march pledging loyalty to new leader Mojtaba Khamenei, stretching from Imam Hussein Square to Azadi Square in Tehran, Iran, on April 29, 2026. [Fatemeh Bahrami – Anadolu Agency]
A commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force warned the United States on Thursday against potential military action amid reports Washington is considering new strikes against Tehran, Anadolu reports.
The warning followed a report by US news website Axios that US President Donald Trump is expected to receive a briefing from US Central Command (CENTCOM) on options for a “short and intense” series of strikes aimed at breaking the current stalemate.
In response, Majid Mousavi, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, said Tehran would respond to any such operations “even if short and rapid” with “prolonged and painful blows.”
“We have seen the fate of your bases in the region; we will also see your vessels,” he added in his comments carried by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
According to Axios, CENTCOM has prepared plans that could include strikes on Iranian infrastructure, as well as broader options such as increased naval pressure in the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposals are reportedly aimed at forcing Iran back to negotiations with greater flexibility, particularly on the nuclear issue.
The report also said Washington is considering steps to secure maritime routes in the Strait of Hormuz and is preparing for possible Iranian retaliation.
The US and Israel began strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, prompting retaliation from Tehran against US allies in the Gulf and closing the Strait of Hormuz.
A ceasefire was announced on April 8 through Pakistani mediation, followed by talks in Islamabad on April 11, but an agreement could not be reached. Trump later unilaterally extended the truce without any new time frame, at Pakistan’s request.
He also rejected a proposal from Iran, in which Tehran suggested reopening the Strait of Hormuz while leaving questions about its nuclear program for later negotiations.
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.
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A view of a banner featuring Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iran continue on March 14, 2026. [Fatemeh Bahrami – Anadolu Agency]
Iran’s supreme leader said Thursday the future of the Gulf will be “without US presence,” stressing that new legal and management frameworks for the Strait of Hormuz will bring stability and economic benefits to the region, Anadolu reports.
In a written statement released by his office to mark Persian Gulf National Day, Mojtaba Khamenei said the presence of foreign powers, particularly the United States, has been a source of instability in the region, adding that a “new phase is emerging.”
He said the Gulf is a key part of regional identity and global economic connectivity, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman.
Khamenei said Iran would ensure security in the Gulf through what he described as new management of the Strait of Hormuz, including updated legal frameworks.
“These frameworks will bring stability, progress and economic benefits for all nations in the region,” he added.
The supreme leader said regional countries share a common destiny in the Gulf and that external actors “from thousands of kilometers away” have no place in its future.
The message also referred to what it described as a “new regional order” emerging from recent developments.
The statement comes amid heightened tensions following the war that began on Feb. 28 between Iran and the United States and Israel, which disrupted shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
A ceasefire announced on April 8 has so far held, while diplomatic efforts continue to reach a broader agreement, including discussions over maritime access and security in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran designated April 30 as Persian Gulf National Day in 2005, commemorating the expulsion of Portuguese forces from the Strait of Hormuz during the Safavid era.
Mojtaba Khamenei was selected supreme leader on March 9 following the killing of his father, Ali Khamenei, in US-Israeli strikes on Feb. 28. Since taking office, he has communicated only through written statements.
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.
Tyche is launched into orbit on a SpaceX Falcon from California (Photo: SpaceX)
The UK government has played a quiet intelligence role in the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran, satellite data analysed by Declassified suggests.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) sent its first earth imaging satellite, named Tyche, into space in August 2024.
The satellite can obtain images with a 90cm resolution within a 5-kilometer imaging swath, enabling the identification of military targets with high resolution.
“The washing machine-sized spacecraft will have sufficient resolution to identify battlefield troop positions and vehicles”, the BBC reported.
Analysis of Tyche’s recent movements indicates the satellite increased passes over Iran before the Twelve-Day War last June as well as the latest conflict.
While the MoD says Tyche’s orbit has not been deliberately altered, the number of passes over Iran spiked from 12 in April last year to 39 in May and 50 in June, representing an overall increase of over 300%.
Passes over Iran declined between July and September before increasing again in October to 55, reaching an all-time high of 69 in December and remaining elevated during the 2026 war.
The satellite also passed over some military targets in Iran shortly before they were attacked by the US or Israel.
The information suggests Britain has played a more active intelligence role than ministers admit, and appears to further challenge the government’s claim of only “defensive” participation.
An MoD spokesperson refused to say whether British satellite imagery over Iran had been shared with the US or Israel, citing “intelligence” reasons.
Calcasieu Pass LNG terminalVenture Global
Roishetta Ozane (second left)
