Hannah Spencer (left) and Zack Polanski. A new technique that predicted Spencer’s byelection win forecasts that Labour could lose Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
[Guardian] Exclusive: Senior party figures share data suggesting Green surge could put Labour in fourth place in capital in May
Senior Labour politicians across London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, with concerns the party faces a “political earthquake” in the capital in May after a surge in support for the Greens.
They have been privately circulating new data that suggests Labour could drop from first to fourth place in London in the May elections – losing control of all but two of their councils – with the Greens soaring into first place to take nine.
“The government needs to demonstrate that they’re not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted,” a senior London Labour figure warned.
Another added: “It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed. We need to start listening to them.”
A new technique, which builds on MRP modelling and correctly predicted the Gorton and Denton byelection result, forecasts that Labour, which holds 21 boroughs in London, could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens.
The modelling, from the data firm Bombe, will spook Labour MPs, who hold 59 of London’s 75 parliamentary seats, and include Keir Starmer, David Lammy, Steve Reed and Wes Streeting.
According to the forecast, the party would lose more than half its council seats – many to the Greens – in the prime minister’s own back yard, Camden, which would fall to no overall control.
…
Mike Joslin, the chief executive of Bombe, which is non-political, said: “Labour is facing wipeout in London in the face of a Green tidal wave. The data shows that Labour’s core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza, social equality issues and Brexit. They want someone that shares their values.
‘Labour’s core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza.’ Demonstrators at a pro-Palestine march in 2024. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer
Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone object to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities, mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.Keir Starmer says that the Labour Party under his leadership is intensely relaxed about assaulting those least able to defend themselves – the very poorest and most vulnerable.
A transport aircraft arrives at the UK’s RAF Akrotiri air base near Limassol, Cyprus, March 5, 2026
Major protests to take place as campaigners warn against war on Iran
MAJOR demonstrations will be held outside the US embassy and at RAF Fairford today amid growing fears Donald Trump’s war on Iran will kill hundreds of thousands of people.
Campaigners warned that Britain was at a “dangerous turning point” as the US-Israel bombings of Tehran continues to escalate.
PM Sir Keir Starmer’s claims the US can only use British bases for so-called “defensive” bombings will be branded “nonsense” by Your Party leader Jeremy Corbyn MP, who is set to speak outside the embassy in central London.
Stop the War Coalition national convener Lindsey German said: “We are at such a dangerous turning point and must redouble our efforts to oppose Trump’s wars, to call for an end to our government’s support for them and to stop arming and backing Israel.
“Keir Starmer knows the US and Israel are waging an illegal war on Iran, but the fact is Britain is deeply involved.
“That’s why this is such an important demonstration in building a movement in this country as strong as the Palestine movement, as strong as the opposition to the Iraq war — one that rejects a world based on barbarism and Trump’s gangster imperialism and instead builds one based on peace and justice.”
Donald Trump warns against following the https://onaquietday.org blog, says that it’s easy atm, she only needs to report war crimes supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion.Zionist Keir Starmer is quoted “I support Zionism without qualification.” He’s asked whether that means that he supports Zionism under all circumstances, whatever Zionists do.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
Caskets are carried by mourners as funerals are held for students and staff from a girls’ school, who authorities said were killed in a US-Israeli strike on February 28, on March 3, 2026 in Minab, Iran. (Photo by Handout/Getty Images)
“There are straight lines between what Israel has attempted to do… in Gaza, to completely decimate and collapse the systems that existed there, to what we are seeing in Iran,” said one expert.
US and Israeli missiles have hit a school in Iran for the fourth time in six days, according to videos shared on social media by a spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry on Friday.
Spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said that the Shahid Hamedani School, an elementary school in Niloufar Square, Tehran, had been “targeted by the American/Israeli aggressors.”
He posted a video showing the school filled with dozens of young students prior to the attack, followed by scenes of the school in ruins, with several empty classrooms filled with rubble.
Baquaei said it showed “how the United States administration is helping the people of Iran.” He did not include any information about the number of casualties or the circumstances of the attack.
🚨 BREAKING: U.S.–Israeli missiles have hit an elementary school in Tehran — the fourth school in 6 days
➤ Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei shared video that shows Shahid Hamedani Elementary School before and after the strike. A casualty toll was not immediately… https://t.co/QZLcxGlktO
According to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), at least 192 children have been killed across the Middle East since the US and Israel launched a regime change war this past Saturday.
Most of them were girls ages 7-12 who were killed on Saturday during an attack at a girls’ school in the southern Iranian town of Minab.
At least 175 people were reported to have been killed in the attack, which unnamed officials have said was “likely” carried out by the United States, according to Reuters. HuffPost reported that Pentagon officials have briefed Congress that the US “was most likely responsible.”
Eyewitnesses and relatives of the victims have toldMiddle East Eye that the attack was a “double-tap” strike in which survivors and first responders were targeted following the initial bombing. An Al Jazeera investigation has concluded that the attack was likely “deliberate.”
Iranian media have also published CCTV video of a separate strike on the same day, in which a missile landed next to a boys’ school in Qazvin, resulting in scenes of terrified students and teachers running for their lives.
On Thursday, two other schools in the town of Parand, southwest of Tehran, were hit by missiles fired by the US and Israel, according to Iranian state media. The FarsNews Agency shared photos of a classroom filled with debris. So far, no casualties from the attack have been reported.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has said that as it wages its war in Iran, the US is not abiding by “stupid rules of engagement,” and has boasted of raining down “death and destruction from the sky all day long.”
According to data analyzed by the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), part of a US-based human rights monitor for Iran, at least 1,168 civilians have been killed by US-Israeli attacks since Saturday. The Iranian government on Friday put the death toll at 1,332 people.
More than 3,643 civilian sites have been damaged in attacks attributed to the US and Israel, according to figures released by the Iranian Red Crescent Society—among them have been 3,090 homes, 528 commercial centres, 13 medical facilities and nine Red Crescent centres.
Amjad Iraqi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that these routine attacks on civilian infrastructure increasingly resemble those carried out by Israel during its more than two-years of genocide in Gaza.
“There are straight lines between what Israel has attempted to do… in Gaza, to completely decimate and collapse the systems that existed there,” Iraqi said, “to what we are seeing in Iran, on a much more massive and dangerous scale, to bring down the Islamic Republic and to cause as much devastation as possible.”
Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.Genocide denier and Current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quoted that he supports Zionism without qualification. He also confirms that UK air force support has been essential in Israel’s mass-murdering genocide. Includes URLs https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-100-spy-flights-over-gaza-in-support-of-israel/ and https://youtu.be/O74hZCKKdpAElon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
Communist Party of Israel MP says US-Israeli attack on Iran was based on lies and only citizens standing up for peace can stop it
THE world risks being dragged into “forever war” by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu and only citizens standing up for peace can stop it, an Israeli MP warned today.
Knesset member Ofer Cassif of the Communist Party of Israel (CPI) told the Morning Star that the US-Israeli attack on Iran was based on lies — and was already a smokescreen for intensified violence and ethnic cleansing in occupied Palestine.
…
“Netanyahu wants forever war in his own interests. He’s interested in doing anything possible to keep himself out of prison, which by definition means staying in power, and he believes as long as the death and destruction in Israel doesn’t rise too high that war will help him in elections.
“Those around him, the coalition, are racist bigots — many of them, the majority are messianic and see this as part of a divine plan, and they’re bloodthirsty all right.
…
US aggression has been ramped up globally since the start of the year, and there is nothing defensive about the war in Iran. After all it was Trump himself who tore up the agreement that did exist between Iran and the West on its nuclear programme — which even the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency Isaac Ben-Israel acknowledged Tehran did not deviate from “by one millimetre.”
Last year, both Trump and Netanyahu claimed to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear programme. Eight months later they say it’s a threat again. “They lie.” Indeed, their aggression makes nuclear proliferation more likely: “The majority of experts in Israel, let alone outside it, say the harbinger of an Iranian nuclear bomb is Netanyahu.”
…
[T]he CPI was right to warn Israel would use the war to accelerate ethnic cleansing in Palestine.
Even before October 7, Cassif was warning Israel intended to carry out the “decisive plan” identified by its self-proclaimed fascist Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, which defines Palestine’s future in three options, “subjugation, expulsion and annihilation.”
Israel’s government plans to “annex all Palestinian territory without granting basic political or civil rights to Palestinians; expel all Palestinians who do not accept that fate; and kill those who try to resist.
“We saw that in Gaza — where the strategy was genocide. We see it in Israel, in fascism and the persecution of anyone who raises a voice against the government.
“And we see it in the West Bank. There is systematic ethnic cleansing in the West Bank, and since the war with Iran began, it’s worse. Entire communities are vanishing.”
Genocide denier and Current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quoted that he supports Zionism without qualification. He also confirms that UK air force support has been essential in Israel’s mass-murdering genocide. Includes URLs https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-100-spy-flights-over-gaza-in-support-of-israel/ and https://youtu.be/O74hZCKKdpAKeir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone object to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities, mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks to soldiers at the RAF base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, during his three-day trip to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Cyprus, December 10, 2024
JEREMY CORBYN’S Bill demanding parliamentary oversight of the use of British bases for foreign countries’ wars is urgent and necessary.
Our craven Prime Minister has already given the United States permission to use British bases in the Middle East for its war of aggression against Iran.
Reversing that is essential to keep Britain out of a war we did not choose and which most British people oppose. It is also the most immediate practical step we can take to limit the escalation of the war we are already seeing across the Middle East.
Donald Trump was emboldened to start war with Iran because no US ally was prepared to stand up to his illegal aggression against Venezuela at the start of the year.
Having kidnapped the leader of one country, he has now killed the leader of another; still our government won’t acknowledge that the Trump White House is the biggest threat to peace and stability worldwide.
War crimes of the worst sort are normalised by the refusal to hold perpetrators to account. Having watched his allies make excuse after excuse for the mass murder he has inflicted on Gaza, Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu fears no retaliation for incinerating 150 schoolgirls in Iran.
This impunity is dangerous: it leads the US and Israel to conclude they can do what they like. That means more atrocities and more wars.
Turning our bases into targets by allowing the US to use them to strike Iran increases the risk the war will spread.
And escalation is inherent in this war, started without defined aims or an exit strategy.
So poorly planned, in fact, that Trump himself admits the US didn’t make arrangements to evacuate its embassies in the region because “it happened very quickly” — a poor excuse in a conflict you started yourself. US Senator Elizabeth Warren, after a classified briefing, is blunt: “The Trump administration has no plan in Iran.”
Donald Trump explains why he established his Bored of PeaceGenocide denier and Current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quoted that he supports Zionism without qualification. He also confirms that UK air force support has been essential in Israel’s mass-murdering genocide. Includes URLs https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-100-spy-flights-over-gaza-in-support-of-israel/ and https://youtu.be/O74hZCKKdpAOrcas discuss rotting brain. Front Orca says “Wish someone would lock him up”.
A transport aircraft arrives at the UK’s RAF Akrotiri air base near Limassol, Cyprus, March 5, 2026
