Stagnating population growth would lead to fewer tax revenues and cause the government to borrow more, according to the thinktank. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Live News.
Jump of £37bn in budget deficit by 2040 would force government to increase taxes, NIESR predicts
The UK economy would be 3.6% smaller by 2040 if net migration fell to zero, forcing the government to raise taxes to combat a much bigger budget deficit, a thinktank has predicted.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said falling birthrates in the UK and a sharp decrease in net migration last year had led it to consider what would happen if this trend continued to the end of the decade.
In this scenario the UK population would stop growing at about 70 million in 2030. The latest official figures showed the UK population was 69.3 million in 2024.
Dr Benjamin Caswell, a senior economist at NIESR, said: “Net zero migration leaves the economy 3.6% smaller by 2040 and this reflects slower employment growth and a smaller workforce.”
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The forecast came after a sharp fall in net migration in 2025, from 649,000 to 204,000 in the year to June, after a tightening of work visa requirements by the Conservative government.
Additional measures by the Labour government around recruiting foreign workers within health and social care may bring down migration further, NIESR said. At the same time, the number of births and deaths in the UK have been more or less equal since the start of the decade, with any change in the UK population being driven by migration.
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Fossil fuel advertising in public spaces will be banned in Amsterdam from May 1, 2026. Credit: World Without Fossil Ads
The world’s largest outdoor advertising company warned city councillors of “far-reaching consequences” hours before the landmark vote.
Amsterdam city council has passed a legally binding ban on advertising for fossil fuels and meat products across public spaces in the city, becoming the first capital in the world to prohibit such ads through local law.
The city council voted 27-17 on Thursday (January 22) to approve the measure, which from May 1 prohibits advertising for high-carbon products and services such as flights, petrol and diesel vehicles, gas heating contracts and meat products across all public spaces in the city, including on buses, trams, and in metro and train stations.
The day before the vote, JCDecaux — the world’s largest outdoor advertising operator, controlling ad space on bus shelters, billboards, and street furniture, all of which are covered by the ban — sent an email to all party groups in the Amsterdam city council, warning the ban would have “far-reaching financial and legal consequences”.
In the email, seen by DeSmog, JCDecaux said it was “deeply concerned” about the proposal and accused councillors of failing to exercise due diligence in preparing the advertising ban, claiming the city had not adequately consulted the industry and created unclear definitions of the restrictions based on “incorrect and incomplete information”.
JCDecaux — which reported global revenues of nearly €4 billion ($4.7 billion) in 2024 — stressed its 40-year partnership with the city and warned that advertising revenue pays for maintenance of public infrastructure. This is a common business model for outdoor advertising companies, which provide and maintain public amenities (such as bus shelters, public toilets, and street furniture) in exchange for the right to sell advertising on them.
In its letter, JCDecaux told city councillors that it manages and maintains 1,500 bus shelters in greater Amsterdam and warned that without advertising revenue these services could come under pressure.
Anke Bakker, Party for the Animals councillor and co-sponsor of the ban, disputed the implication that infrastructure funding was at risk. “I am confident that they will be able to continue filling the advertising space, but with vegetarian and emission-free products,” she said. JCDecaux’s email “illustrates how deeply fossil fuels and meat are rooted in the advertising industry,” Bakker said, adding that there was “widespread support in society” for pro-climate advertising bans.
JCDecaux had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.
The ban covers product advertising –– ads for flights, petrol cars, and meat –– but not corporate branding by fossil fuel and aviation companies, which can continue until contracts expire. Fossil fuel companies and other high-carbon industries can still run campaigns in public spaces, as long as they don’t advertise specific products. That continues until Amsterdam’s contract with JCDecaux expires in 2028, after which all corporate advertising will be prohibited under the new terms.
The pushback followed The Hague’s successful defence of its similar legal fossil fuel advertising ban in April this year. Travel industry groups ANVR and TUI sued to overturn The Hague’s ordinance, which prohibits advertising for petrol, diesel, aviation and cruise ships. The court upheld the ban, ruling it complies with EU law and serves a clear public interest in addressing the climate crisis.
“The Hague paved the way for cities to legally install an ad ban for climate-damaging products,” said Rémi ter Haar of campaign group Reclame Fossielvrij, which has spent years pushing for a nationwide fossil fuel advertising ban in the Netherlands.
“That a big city like Amsterdam now follows suit is no small feat and sends the message worldwide that fossil fuel advertising is on its way out, just like tobacco.”
It is not the first time JCDecaux has resisted restrictions on fossil fuel advertising. When Amsterdam first moved to exclude ads on high-carbon products from metro stations in 2020, managing director Hannelore Majoor told Adformatie, a Dutch advertising trade publication, that the measure was “a form of censorship” and complained, “It’s not our role to decide on communication for products that aren’t prohibited.”
‘Drawing a Clear Line’
Advertising for fossil fuel-intensive products and by fossil fuel companies has come under growing scrutiny for normalising climate-damaging consumption and undermining government climate policies.
Multiple Dutch government advisory bodies haverecommended restricting both product advertising (such as for flights and petrol cars) and corporate brand advertising by oil and gas companies as essential climate measures.
The ban goes considerably further than Amsterdam’s landmark 2020 decision to voluntarily exclude fossil fuel ads from metro stations. Unlike voluntary agreements, the ban is written into Amsterdam’s APV – the local ordinance governing public order and safety in Dutch municipalities.
Violations will incur administrative fines, though the specific penalty has not yet been determined. The city expects enforcement to be largely complaint-based, with officials expecting advertising companies to comply without needing enforcement.
A narrow exemption allows businesses to advertise at their own physical premises, meaning a local butcher can display meat promotions in their shop window, but oil and gas companies, and other high-carbon industries cannot buy billboard space across the city –– even to advertise renewable energy initiatives or sustainability programmes.
Creatives for Climate, a global network that coordinated an open letter signed by almost 100 advertising professionals, backed the ban. Community Manager Andrea Mancuso said it represented the industry holding itself accountable: “Advertising doesn’t just sell products, it grants social licence. Our network backed this ban because they know that promoting fossil fuels undermines climate action and public trust.”
The letter noted that Amsterdam’s 2020 commitment to ban fossil fuel advertising in metro stations had “sent a powerful signal” globally but remained “unfinished”, with fossil fuel ads still promoting flights, cruises, high-emission vehicles, and gas contracts across the city. “As the first capital city in the world to legally ban fossil fuel and meat advertising, Amsterdam is drawing a clear line,” Mancuso said.
The city’s metro station ban sparked a global movement, with Sydney, Edinburgh, and Stockholm among the cities to introduce similar voluntary restrictions on municipal advertising spaces.
Several Dutch cities have adopted legally binding bans through local ordinances which prohibit fossil fuel ads, regardless of existing contracts. The Hague was the first to use this approach in 2024. Utrecht and Bloemendaal followed with legal bans in 2025, upgrading their earlier contract-based restrictions.
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As rivers swell and homes are cut off, scientists say UK winter rainfall is already 20 years ahead of predictions
When flooding hit the low-lying Somerset Levels in 2014, it took two months for the waters to rise. This week it took two days, said Rebecca Horsington, chair of the Flooding on the Levels Action Group and a born-and-bred resident. A fierce barrage of storms from the Atlantic has drenched south-west England in January, saturating soils and supercharging rivers.
“It’s déjà vu,” she said. “The stress and anxiety is palpable in the community. We’ve all been here before, we know what happens and it shouldn’t. But since 2014, the weather events are becoming more and more frequent and the rain just dumps now.”
The climate crisis is here and now and this is its face in Britain, scientists told the Guardian. But the devastating impacts are accelerating faster than the work to keep communities protected, they said: torrential winter rains are arriving 20 years earlier than climate models projected. While those forced from homes engulfed by filthy water are suffering today, a darker question is looming: will some settlements have to be abandoned?
Storm Chandra, which pummelled the south-west this week, followed hot on the heels of Storms Goretti and Ingrid. New 24-hour rainfall records were set in places in Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. Setting new records is the new normal in the climate crisis.
Somerset council declared a major incident on Tuesday and across the south-west homes and businesses were flooded, communities cut off, schools closed, trains cancelled and dozens of people were rescued from stranded vehicles.
“These events are getting more frequent and more serious,” said Bryony Sadler, a hairdresser from Moorland, a village on the Levels. She was planning an evacuation of her family and animals when the Guardian spoke to her this week as the waters rose. “The rain is heavier and more intense, the winds stronger.”
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Tory defector Suella Braverman speaks with Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage(Image: Getty Images)
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s latest high-profile recruit, Suella Braverman, had a trip paid for by The Heritage Foundation — a supporter of the controversial US immigration agency ICE
Reform defector Suella Braverman has been bankrolled by a think-tank backing the US immigration agency behind a deadly shooting.
The ex-Home Secretary became the latest high-profile Tory to join Nigel Farage‘s party this week. But we can reveal she accepted a freebie trip worth more than £9,000 from The Heritage Foundation — a supporter of controversial ICE in the wake of a mum being killed. In recent weeks, the award-winning poet’s death and that of an ICU nurse at the hands of another US agency have sparked outrage. In an interview on Tuesday, Donald Trump said his administration was “going to de-escalate a little bit” in Minnesota. “Bottom line, it was terrible. Both of them were terrible,” the US president said.
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Hope Not Hate’s Director of Research, Joe Mulhall, added: “Sadly, it is no surprise that Suella Braverman has accepted funds from the Heritage Foundation. Her own increasingly radical politics, which have seen her defect to Reform UK, align well with much of the output of this infamous US think-tank. Braverman was the Home Secretary who described asylum seekers arriving in the UK by boat as an ‘invasion’, adopting and normalising the language of the far right. She’s now in Reform, a party that has called for ‘mass deportations,’ a plan that if enacted would require something akin to a British version of ICE.”
Braverman, who represents Fareham and Waterlooville in Hampshire, accepted flights, accommodation and airport transfers valued at £9,358.71 from The Heritage Foundation in January last year, her register of interests shows. During the visit, she delivered the annual Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture. In a tweet promoting her speech, she echoed Trump’s rhetoric, writing: “Too many people are coming into our country who do not abide by our laws, sign up to our values or respect our culture. In fact, too many wish to do us harm. We have all had enough. It’s time to Make Britain Great Again.”
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage at the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Abu Dhabi, December 2025. Credit: Nigel Farage / X
The leader of Reform, a pro-oil party, received lavish hospitality from Abu Dhabi.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage received freebies worth £10,000 from the Abu Dhabi government, new records show.
Farage’s latest register of interests shows that he accepted flights and accommodation to attend the Abu Dhabi Formula 1 Grand Prix in December, paid for by the regime that runs the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This included a front-row “paddock” pass to the event worth £4,500.
The records show that Farage also attended “meetings” during his visit.
The Reform leader has previously mocked Prime Minister Keir Starmer for receiving gifts from donors.
Reform campaigns for the UK to dramatically expand its fossil fuel production, scrap its clean energy policies, and dismantle its climate targets.
The UAE is an autocratic monarchy and petrostate. Roughly 30 percent of the country’s GDP is directly based on its oil and gas output.
Reform received 92 percent of its donations between the 2019 and 2024 UK elections from polluting sources and climate science deniers, while its treasurer Nick Candy has claimed the party is actively raising money from oil executives.
Senior party figures have also praised U.S. President Donald Trump’s “drill baby drill” agenda, which has seen his administration recently capture Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro and pledge that the U.S. oil industry will “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country”.
Farage denies basic climate science, claiming it’s “absolutely nuts” for carbon dioxide to be considered a pollutant. The party is being advised by the Heartland Institute, a U.S.-based pro-Trump climate denial group. Farage helped to launch Heartland’s UK-EU branch in December last year.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading climate science body, has said “it is a statement of fact, we cannot be any more certain; it is unequivocal and indisputable that humans are warming the planet.”
The IPCC has also stated that carbon dioxide pollution “is responsible for most of global warming” since the late 19th century, which has increased the “severity and frequency of weather and climate extremes, like heat waves, heavy rains, and drought” – all of which “put a disproportionate burden on low-income households and thus increase poverty levels.”
Key individuals in Reform have also heaped praise on the UAE in recent months.
Reform deputy leader Richard Tice has said he travels to the UAE “every six to eight weeks” to visit his partner, Telegraph columnist Isabel Oakeshott, who moved to Dubai in January 2025.
Tice has praised the UAE for its sense of national pride, work ethic, law and order, integration of migrants, and energy sector, while stating that the UK is “decadent” and “going bust”.
In an article last January for the website Arabian Gulf Business Insight, Candy praised the UAE’s crime prevention and “robust law enforcement”, adding: “Coupled with a high standard of living, excellent healthcare and top-tier schools, the UAE offers a lifestyle that few other locations can match.”
Candy also lauded “the wisdom and visionary nature of the UAE’s leadership”, writing that “the quality of government officials is mind-blowing”. By contrast, he said that Western countries are ruled by “second-tier individuals” who “allow political agendas to get in the way of what is best for the country”.
The UAE does not hold popular elections, and there are no political parties. Critics of the government are often jailed, while migrant workers face “widespread abuses” according to Human Rights Watch, including wage theft and passport confiscation.
The country also discriminates against women and its penal code allows the authorities to arrest people for campaigns promoting the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people.
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