After a summer of extreme temperatures, drought and a food production crisis, with more than 2,800 excess deaths due to consecutive heatwaves in May and June alone, you’d think the government might be taking a more muscular approach to the climate emergency.
But just days before the UK was plunged into killer-storm territory, Andy Burnham’s government approved new North Sea drilling in the form of the Jackdaw gas field.
Climate experts are clear: no new oil and gas fields are compatible with keeping global heating around the 1.5°C mark. Jackdaw and the as-yet-unapproved Rosebank oil field, the two new North Sea projects previously halted in the courts over their climate impact, are not an exception.
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And congratulations might be in order for the climate-wreckers once again, with Whitehall ‘sources’ briefing on Saturday night that Burnham and chancellor John Healey are set to “defy eco-zealot Ed Miliband” and approve Rosebank, despite energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh insisting she’s the only one who can make the final decision.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that he’s delayed the go-ahead for Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea oil and gas extraction until after the Holborn and St. Pancras by-election – don’t want democracy interfering with Capitalism.
Climate campaigners in London earlier this month protesting against the possible approval of drilling at the Rosebank oilfield in the North Sea. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/EPA
Letter to PM argues series of wrong choices on North Sea oil, Heathrow, EVs and heat pumps will scupper net zero plans
Andy Burnham will “sleepwalk” into climate disaster if he fails to get a grip on a series of important policies whose combined impact could scupper plans to reach net zero, campaigners have said.
But they should be considered in the context of their cumulative impacts rather than be taken separately by different government departments, according to Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth (FoE) in a letter to the prime minister.
Taken together, the emissions resulting from approving drilling at the Rosebank oilfield, expanding Heathrow airport, watering down the UK’s EV targets and cutting heat pump grants would be 402m tonnes of CO2 over the next 25 years, the letter says.
The emissions would be greater than those of 106 coal plants running for a year, more than enough to prevent the UK meeting its carbon budgets and net zero.
Doug Parr, chief scientist at Greenpeace, said: “The Burnham government is facing a series of big decisions over the next few months that could define its legacy on climate. This administration seems to get the urgency of cutting the emissions causing deadly heatwaves and droughts, but there’s a real risk they could still sleepwalk into reversing the strong progress the UK has made so far.”
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that he’s delayed the go-ahead for Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea oil and gas extraction until after the Holborn and St. Pancras by-election – don’t want democracy interfering with Capitalism.
The richest 0.1% have reportedly contributed by 125 times more than the average person to extreme heat events, through their investments and lifestyles such as the use of private jets. Photograph: Julio Cortez/AP
The world’s wealthiest people are not just profiting from the polluting causes of climate breakdown, they are also increasingly cashing in on the catastrophic consequences, according to a study by Oxfam.
The global equality organisation has found that the richest 0.1% of the world’s population are heavily invested in disaster preparedness, recovery and reconstruction – a market that is projected to grow from $70bn to $92bn a year by 2029.
This gives the planet’s wealthiest and most powerful people a “double dividend” from the climate crisis and, more alarmingly, an incentive to delay or disrupt action to solve the problem, the NGO says.
It also worsens global inequality as those least responsible for global heating end up having to pay those most responsible in terms of higher food prices, repairing homes damaged by extreme weather or relocating to other areas.
Jean McLean, Oxfam’s chief influencing officer, accused billionaires of turning chaos into profit. “The super-rich benefit at both ends of the crisis: first, through continued investment in polluting industries, and second, through investment in the booming ‘adaptation economy’ – recovery and rebuilding services are sold back to a warming world,” she said.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that he’s delayed the go-ahead for Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea oil and gas extraction until after the Holborn and St. Pancras by-election – don’t want democracy interfering with Capitalism.
Global temperatures are forecast to rise to 2.8C above preindustrial levels if current government policies around the world remain unchanged. Photograph: Jon Cherry/Getty Images
Action needed to avoid disastrous overshoot of climate targets, according to organisation’s environment body
The world needs to cut carbon emissions by nearly a fifth in the next four years, and by close to half within a decade, to avoid overshooting climate targets by a disastrous margin.
Although the “window has closed” on holding temperature rises to 1.5C, in line with scientific advice, limiting the “overshoot” of that target is still possible, according to the UN Environment Programme (Unep).
At the Cop30 climate summit in Brazil last November, governments were supposed to make fresh commitments under the Paris agreement to cut emissions. But the commitments made were nowhere near strong enough.
Even if all of those updated pledges were fulfilled, temperatures would still rise to 2.6C above preindustrial levels, according to Unep’s projections, endangering life across swathes of the globe. Policy has also not kept up with pledges: on current policies around the world, temperatures would rise to 2.8C.
UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham says ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that he’s delayed the go-ahead for Jackdaw and Rosebank North Sea oil and gas extraction until after the Holborn and St. Pancras by-election – don’t want democracy interfering with Capitalism.Donald Trump urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
21.15 GMT dizzy: C’mon, time to engage your brains. Here’s your starter: “… on current policies around the world, temperatures would rise to 2.8C.”
So we’re currently near 1.5C, it might not be officially recognised yet, it might be 1.4C but close enough to 1.5C. We currently have extreme weather as a result of 1.5C – severe hurricanes, wildfires, drought, deluges. They’re almost biblical in their extent now.
Do you think that progression to 2.8C will be linear or logarithmic? I would go for logarithmic and I would also expect that the effects would be so extreme that we – humans – won’t survive them. My earlier rough calculation was based on a 4C increase, not sure that’s necessary.
Article by Industry insider republished from TBIJ under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
Our refusal to confront reality could prove catastrophic for homes, communities … and the entire economy
This is the first in our Secret Source series, a regular column from industry whistleblowers.
The world is facing greater risk than ever from extreme weather. We are not prepared – and that could have profound consequences for the global financial system.
I work for a major insurer, assessing the risk posed by natural disasters on properties around the world, from family homes to schools, government offices and multibillion-dollar commercial centres.
In the face of ever more dire and unpredictable climate risks, I am coming under pressure to cut my forecasts for the losses that disasters will cause in order to make insurance more affordable – and get my employer more business. In some instances, the questioning of my numbers and models is justified. But too often it is not being done to produce more accurate predictions, but to artificially lower prices. If this is happening at my firm, which is struggling to compete with rivals’ prices, it’s happening elsewhere.
Our sector is carrying more risk than we realise. The warming global climate has caused more high-intensity storms, rising sea levels, flooding, wildfires and drought.
While the immediate impact of these events is plain to see, the long-term effects will be compounded as insurers withdraw from entire regions, leaving the economy in freefall and people’s day-to-day lives in ruins.
For example, if subsidence – which is made worse by drought – damages a number of homes in your area, insurers may exclude this from your policy. If subsidence then damages or destroys your house, you won’t be covered.
When that happens to an entire community, businesses leave, investment dries up and the local economy tanks. Now imagine that happening in towns all around the country, all at the same time. And subsidence is only one such issue, alongside wildfires, coastal erosion, wind and floods. And that’s just the UK.
As a modeller it is my job to look scientifically at the data and calculate an expected loss from a natural disaster, which in turn affects the price of the premium for a given policy. As my analysis shows higher and more volatile risk, the price rises with it and we lose customers.
Our industry says it holds modellers’ numbers as sacrosanct, but in reality we are coming under pressure to reduce our projected losses. In the most basic terms, we are collectively fudging the numbers and taking on more risk than we should for a lower price than the expected loss demands.
Sometimes I will forecast losses that would normally be seen as much too risky for us to insure but we offer the policies anyway.
This will eventually lead to a sector built on “competitively-priced” contracts that underestimate risk, leaving gaping holes in the safety net that insurance is supposed to provide.
I have respect for underwriters who are just doing their jobs, and I know that no single individual is responsible. My concern lies with the attitude of the industry as a whole towards modellers, actuaries and researchers: there is a sense that we are an inconvenience to the deal-making process rather than an essential part of risk management. We are the failsafe that stops our industry from reckless gambling.
At the largest scale, misquoted insurance can damage insurers, companies, their employees and entire communities. The upshot is that our customers are likely much more exposed to climate-related risks than they realise. People are not budgeting for a major increase in their insurance premiums or planning for their homes becoming uninsurable, but many of them absolutely should be.
If the worst happens, the insurance industry may not have the money to pay every claim when a major disaster hits. That would have profound consequences for the economy as a whole – businesses could go bankrupt, the housing market will seize up. If people can’t pay their mortgages, banks could collapse.
As natural catastrophes continue to become less predictable and more severe, the foundations of our entire economy will only become more fragile. Our customers deserve to know.
Article by Anonymous republished from TBIJ under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.Donald Trump urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
