OBR: Net-zero is much cheaper than thought for UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly

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Original article by Simon Evans republished from Carbon Brief under a CC license.

Aerial view of a solar farm, north west England, UK. Credit: Paul White – UK Industries / Alamy Stock Photo

Reaching net-zero will be much cheaper for the UK government than previously expected – and the economic damages of unmitigated climate change far more severe.

These are two key conclusions from the latest report on risks to the government finances from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which includes a chapter on climate change.

The new OBR report shows very clearly that the cost of cutting emissions to net-zero is significantly smaller than the economic damages of failing to act.

Here are four key charts from the OBR report.

Climate damages could reach 8% of GDP by 2070s

The UK could take an 8% hit to its economy by the early 2070s, if the world warms by 3C this century, according to the new OBR report.

(This aspect of the OBR report has been picked up in a Reuters headline: “Global 3C warming would hurt UK economy much more than previously predicted, OBR says.”)

Its latest estimate (blue line) of the impact of “climate-related damages” by the 2070s is three percentage points (60%) higher than thought just last year (yellow), as shown in the figure below.

Chart 1.9: Impact on GDP and government borrowing of climate change damage
Left: Impact of climate damages on UK GDP, if global warming reaches 3C by the end of the century. Right: Impact on government borrowing. Blue lines show the latest estimates whereas yellow lines are from last year’s report. Credit: OBR

The OBR says that the increase in its estimate of climate damages is due to using a “more comprehensive and up-to-date analysis”.

(The world is currently on track to warm by only slightly less than 3C this century.)

Unchecked damages could double hit to borrowing

The impact of climate damages on government borrowing would be nearly twice as high by the 2070s, if global warming goes unchecked and reaches 3C, according to the OBR report.

This is shown in the figure below, which compares additional government borrowing each year, as a share of GDP, if warming is limited to less than 2C this century (left) or if it climbs to 3C (right).

Chart 4.6: Additional public sector net borrowing from climate damage costs
Additional government borrowing each year due to climate damages, as a share of GDP, %, if warming is limited to less than 2C this century (left) or 3C (right). Credit: OBR.

The OBR explains that the largest impact of climate damages on government borrowing is “lower productivity and employment and, therefore, lower tax receipts”.

Cost of net-zero halved

When it comes to cutting UK emissions, the OBR says the government will only need to invest just over half as much on reaching net-zero, compared with what it expected four years earlier.

This is shown in the figure below, with the latest 2025 estimate (right) showing a cumulative government investment of 6% of GDP across the 25 years to 2050, down from 11% (left).

(Note that the large majority of “lost government receipts”, shown in yellow in the figure below, are due to fuel duty evaporating as drivers shift to electric vehicles. As the OBR notes, the government could choose to recoup these losses via other types of motoring taxes.)

Chart 4.12: Change in cumulative real spending and receipts impacts by 2050-51
Cumulative change in government lost receipts (yellow) and extra investment (green), as a share of GDP, %. Left: OBR’s 2021 report. Right: Latest 2025 report. Credit: OBR.

The OBR takes its estimates of the costs and benefits of cutting emissions to net-zero from the government’s Climate Change Committee (CCC). The CCC recently issued significantly lower estimates for net-zero investment costs, due to more rapidly falling clean-technology costs.

Acknowledging this shift, the OBR says the latest CCC estimates on the cost of reaching net-zero are “significantly lower” than earlier figures.

It notes that the net cost to the economy of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 is now put at £116bn over 25 years, some £204bn lower than previously expected.

In very rough terms, this figure – which excludes health co-benefits due to cutting emissions and avoided climate damages – is equivalent to less than £70 per person per year.

Cost of action far lower than cost of inaction

Taken together, the OBR findings show more clearly than ever before that the cost of taking action to tackle climate change would be far lower than the cost of unchecked warming.

For the first time, its latest report combines the estimated cost of cutting emissions with the expected damages due to rising temperatures in a single figure, shown below.

The comparison illustrates that climate damages (blue bars in the chart) are set to impose severe costs on the UK public finances, even if warming is limited to less than 2C this century (left).

The OBR also shows how the cost of government investment in cutting emissions (yellow) is both temporary and relatively small in comparison to climate damages.

Moreover, it highlights how unchecked warming of 3C this century (right) would impose far higher climate damages on the UK government’s finances than if global temperatures are kept in check.

Specifically, global action to limit warming to 2C instead of 3C could prevent more than 1 percentage point of climate damages being added to annual government borrowing by the 2070s.

In contrast, the combined estimated cost to government of action to cut emissions never exceeds 0.6 percentage points – even if lost receipts due to fuel duty are not replaced (green).

CHart 4.13: Annual additional primary borrowing from the combined costs of damage and transition, relative to the 2024 FRS central long-term projection
Annual additional government borrowing as a result of action to cut emissions (yellow, green) and from climate damages (blue, purple). Left: 2C of warming this century. Right: 3C. Credit: OBR.

Beyond these new numbers, the OBR acknowledges that it still does not include the cost of adapting to climate change, or the impact this could have on reducing damages.

Nor does it consider the potential for accelerated transitions towards clean energy, technological advances that make this shift cheaper or the risk of tipping points, which could cause “large and irreversible changes” to the global climate.

Original article by Simon Evans republished from Carbon Brief under a CC license.

Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.
Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that Reform UK has received millions and millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him. He says that Reform UK has received millions and millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
Continue ReadingOBR: Net-zero is much cheaper than thought for UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly

The Guardian view on Israel and Gaza: they make a desert and call it peace

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/08/the-guardian-view-on-israel-and-gaza-they-make-a-desert-and-call-it-peace

‘Perhaps the indirect talks between Hamas and Israel will reach a temporary deal again, with more aid allowed in. Even so, no one few expect that a lasting peace would result.’ Photograph: Getty

Visiting Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu delighted in telling Donald Trump that he had nominated him for the Nobel peace prize. The Israeli prime minister cited Mr Trump’s efforts to end conflicts in the Middle East. But in truth he is grateful to the US president for joining his war against Iran last month and for allowing carnage in Gaza to continue after a brief pause. He is also eager that the US president does not strong‑arm him into another ceasefire. Perhaps the indirect talks between Hamas and Israel in Qatar will reach a temporary deal again, with hostages released and possibly more aid allowed in. Even so, few expect that a lasting peace would result.

Words matter. They have become so detached from reality when it comes to Israel’s war in Gaza that it is not merely absurd, or despicable, but obscene. The defence minister, Israel Katz, has laid out plans for a “humanitarian city”: this means forcing all Palestinians in Gaza into a camp that the military would bar them from leaving. Prof Amos Goldberg, a historian of the Holocaust, used the accurate words: it would be “a concentration camp or a transit camp for Palestinians before they expel them”. The “emigration plan” which Mr Katz says “will happen”, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, is in fact an ethnic cleansing plan. No departure can be considered voluntary when the alternative is starvation or indefinite imprisonment in inhuman conditions.

Destroying Palestinians’ means of survival, planning the removal of Gaza’s population and envisioning its outright destruction are surely not merely brutal acts but ones committed with “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group” – the definition of genocide in the UN convention.

Article continues at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jul/08/the-guardian-view-on-israel-and-gaza-they-make-a-desert-and-call-it-peace

Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone obect to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza's hospitals and universities,mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.
Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone obect to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities,mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.
Continue ReadingThe Guardian view on Israel and Gaza: they make a desert and call it peace

Kristi Noem Guts ICE Oversight as Detainee Deaths Surge

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https://newrepublic.com/post/197698/kristi-noem-guts-ice-oversight-detainee-deaths-surge

Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

ICE Barbie Kristi Noem is making it harder to hold ICE accountable.

As DHS carries out a massive reduction in force, the size of its detainment and deportation operation has only grown. Since Trump’s inauguration in January, 60 local, state, and federal prisons—public and private—have been detaining immigrants for DHS and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

At least 12 people have already died in ICE custody so far this year, the same number that died in all of 2024. Administration officials have brushed off these deaths as business as usual, but Michelle Brané, a former Immigration Detention Ombudsman, told CNN that the death toll “could be much higher.”

“People’s lives are at risk,” Brané said.

Katie Shepherd, who previously served as a senior policy advisor at CRCL before she was removed as part of the DHS oversight cuts, said the agency was moving in the wrong direction.

“As the Trump administration is doubling down on immigration enforcement, and the number of people in custody is rapidly increasing, we should be increasing oversight, not eliminating it,” Shepherd said.

Article at https://newrepublic.com/post/197698/kristi-noem-guts-ice-oversight-detainee-deaths-surge

Donald Fuhrump says that Amerikkka doesn't bother with crimes or charges anymore, not being 100% Amerikkkan and opposing his real estate intentions is enough.
Donald Fuhrump says that Amerikkka doesn’t bother with crimes or charges anymore, not being 100% Amerikkkan and opposing his real estate intentions is enough.
Power-mad orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
Power-mad Neo-Fascist orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
Continue ReadingKristi Noem Guts ICE Oversight as Detainee Deaths Surge

Lula demands respect for Brazil’s sovereignty after Trump’s statements

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Original article by Pablo Meriguet republished from peoples dispatch under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA) license.

Brazilian President Lula da Silva leads the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 6, 2025. Photo: X

New tensions have arisen between the United States and Brazil after Trump claims that former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, an ultra-right-wing leader, is innocent

On July 7, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, published a message on Truth Social defending former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and claiming he has been mistreated and is innocent. Bolsonaro was los reelection in the 2022 elections and later the Supreme Court declared that he was ineligible to serve in public office due to his numerous violations.

Trump wrote: “Brazil is doing a terrible thing on their treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro. I have watched, as has the World, as they have done nothing but come after him, day after day, night after night, month after month, year after year! He is not guilty of anything, except having fought for THE PEOPLE… This is nothing more, or less, than an attack on a Political Opponent — Something I know much about! It happened to me, times 10, and now our Country is the “HOTTEST” in the World! The Great People of Brazil will not stand for what they are doing to their former President.”

He also claimed that the alleged persecution of Bolsonaro is a “witch hunt”: “I’ll be watching the WITCH HUNT of Jair Bolsonaro, his family, and thousands of his supporters, very closely. The only Trial that should be happening is a Trial by the Voters of Brazil — It’s called an Election. LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!”

In response to these statements, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva asserted that the US president’s declaration is interference and that Brazilian sovereignty must be respected. “The defense of democracy in Brazil is a matter for Brazilians. We are a sovereign country,” Lula reminded Trump. “We do not accept interference or tutelage from anyone. We have solid and independent institutions. No one is above the law. Especially those who attack freedom and the rule of law.”

For her part, Brazil’s secretary of state, Gleisi Hoffmann, was more confrontational: 

“Donald Trump is very mistaken if he thinks he can interfere in the Brazilian judicial process. The period when Brazil was subservient to the US was during Bolsonaro’s presidency, when he saluted his flag and failed to defend national interests. Today, he is answering for the crimes he committed against democracy and the electoral process in Brazil. You can’t talk about persecution when a sovereign country complies with due process in the democratic rule of law, which Bolsonaro and his coup plotters have tried to destroy. The US president should take care of his problems, of which there are many, and respect the sovereignty of Brazil and our judiciary.”

Trump’s comments were made while Lula leads the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, where the economic bloc denounced “unilateral, punitive, and discriminatory protectionist measures” and called for the strengthening of multilateralism to create a more equitable global order.

What is Bolsonaro accused of?

Former President Jair Bolsonaro (2019-2023), a longtime friend of Donald Trump, thanked the US president for his support: “I was delighted to receive the note from President Donald Trump. This lawsuit to which I am responding is a legal aberration (Lawfare), clear political persecution, already perceived by everyone with common sense … I thank the illustrious President and friend. You went through something similar … Your struggle for peace, justice, and freedom echoes across the planet. Thank you for existing and for giving us an example of faith and resilience.”

According to the Brazilian justice system, Bolsonaro led, together with several high-ranking military officers and other far-right politicians, an attempt to delegitimize and reverse the electoral results that marked his defeat in October 2022 by the current President Lula da Silva, who obtained 50.9% of the valid votes, to the far-right’s 49.1%. On January 8, 2023, hundreds of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the headquarters of the legislative and judicial branches in Brasilia.

The protesters entered the Three Powers Square a week after Lula assumed his mandate as president of the country. Following the declaration of a state of emergency, security forces took several hours to expel Bolsonaro’s supporters, while most governments around the world condemned the incursion.

Read more: Jair Bolsonaro will stand trial for coup attempt

For his part, Bolsonaro has denied his participation in the events, in which, according to the Brazilian justice system, generals Augusto Heleno and Walter Braga (former Secretary of Defense), as well as former Secretaries, Anderson Torres, Augusto Heleno, and the 2022 electoral campaign aide, Mauro Cid, are also involved.

The charges are attempted coup d’état, participation in an armed criminal organization, attempted abolition of the democratic rule of law, aggravated damages, and deterioration of historical heritage. The final decision of justice will be known in the coming months and will surely affect the political future of the Amazonian nation.

Original article by Pablo Meriguet republished from peoples dispatch under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA) license.

Continue ReadingLula demands respect for Brazil’s sovereignty after Trump’s statements

Israeli PM Netanyahu back in the US capital, defying ICC arrest warrant

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Original article by Peoples Dispatch republished from peoples dispatch under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA) license.

Netanyahu visits Trump in the White House (Photo via @WhiteHouse/X)

Israeli Prime Minister supports Trump’s plan for mass displacement of Palestinians and nominates US leader for Nobel Peace Prize

Israeli Prime Minister and wanted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu is once again visiting the United States capitol, discussing the “relocation” of the entire Palestinian population from Gaza, Trump’s push for a renewed ceasefire, and the renewal of US-Iran talks.

The controversial visit has been met with protests from pro-Palestine and anti-imperialist organizations in Washington DC.

Earlier this year, Trump floated a controversial plan to colonize the region – emptying Gaza of Palestinians and developing its coastline into what he called a “Riviera of the Middle East.” Although this proposal was denounced by everyone from human rights organizations to most countries in the West Asia region, Netanyahu appears to have issued renewed support for the idea of the mass displacement of Palestinians.

“It’s called free choice,” the Israeli Prime Minister told reporters on Monday. “If people want to stay, they can stay. But if they want to leave, they should be able to leave.”

The same day, during a dinner at the White House, Netanyahu handed Trump a letter nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize, citing Trump’s role in the Abraham Accords.

Palestinian diaspora and solidarity organizations have denounced Netanyahu’s visit. Activists with the Palestinian Youth Movement and the ANSWER Coalition, took to the streets of the US capital on July 7, chanting “Bibi out of DC now!”

The United States is one of the few countries that Netanyahu has visited since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him over his responsibility for war crimes in Gaza. The US is not a party to the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the ICC, and the Biden administration stated that it fundamentally rejected the arrest warrant when it was issued. However, the socialist candidate for mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani, a likely winner of the mayoralty in November, has stated that he would indeed arrest Netanyahu if the Israeli leader steps foot in the city.

Netanyahu has taken detours to avoid arrest in other countries that are parties to the Rome Statute, including Ireland, Iceland, and the Netherlands. 

“Wanted war criminal, Benjamin Netanyahu, is in Washington DC, yet again continuing to be received by the highest offices in the US while carrying out a mass slaughter campaign against the entire population of Gaza,” a member of the Palestinian Youth Movement told Peoples Dispatch. “We condemn Netanyahu’s presence here which will only siphon resources from the American people in service of the genocide on Gaza. The Trump administration could end the slaughter today, but they choose to continue fueling this holocaust against Palestinians despite the wishes of the American people.”

Original article by Peoples Dispatch republished from peoples dispatch under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (CC BY-SA) license.

Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone obect to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza's hospitals and universities,mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.
Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone obect to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities,mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.
Experiencing issues with this image not appearing. I suspect because it's so critical of Zionist Keir Starmer's support of and complicity in Israel's genocides.
Genocide denier and Current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quoted that he supports Zionism without qualification. He also confirms that UK air force support has been essential in Israel’s mass-murdering genocide. Includes URLs https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-100-spy-flights-over-gaza-in-support-of-israel/ and https://youtu.be/O74hZCKKdpA
UK Labour Party government Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves explain that they are participants and complicit in Israel's Gaza genocide providing Israel with army and air force support. They explain that they don't do gas chambers but do do forced marches, starvation, destroy hospitals, mass-murders of journalists and healthcare workers.
UK Labour Party government Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves explain that they are participants and complicit in Israel’s Gaza genocide providing Israel with army and air force support. They explain that they don’t do gas chambers but do do forced marches, starvation, destroy hospitals, mass-murders of journalists and healthcare workers.
Continue ReadingIsraeli PM Netanyahu back in the US capital, defying ICC arrest warrant