Science shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction

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An offshore drilling platform.
Mike Mareen/Shutterstock

Ed Hawkins, University of Reading

The world has just suffered through its warmest month ever recorded. Heatwaves have swept across southern Europe, the US and China, breaking many temperature records in the process.

Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades that this type of event will become more frequent as the world continues to warm. The major culprit behind this is the burning of fossil fuels. So it’s extremely concerning that the UK government has announced its intention to grant hundreds of licences for new North Sea oil and gas extraction.

Although burning fossil fuels to generate power and heat has enabled society to develop and flourish, we are now experiencing the unintended side effects. The carbon dioxide that has been added to the atmosphere is leading to a rise in global temperatures, causing heatwaves to become hotter and downpours more intense. The resulting large-scale disruption and suffering is becoming ever more visible.

This warming will continue, with worsening climatic consequences, until we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to “net zero”. After that, we will still have to live and suffer in a warmer climate for generations. The collective choices we make now will matter in the future.

The small-scale, but high-profile, disruptions caused by Just Stop Oil protesters in the UK are extremely frustrating for many. But their single demand – for no licenses for new UK coal, oil and gas projects – is consistent with the science underpinning the international agreements that the UK has signed.

Temperatures are rising

Since the 1860s, the scientific community has understood that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would warm the climate. And as long ago as 1938, the burning of fossil fuels was linked to the observed rise in both carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. Fast forward to now and global temperatures are warmer, and increasing faster, than at any point in human civilisation.

In response to the overwhelming scientific evidence, the UK and 193 other nations came together in 2015 to ratify the Paris agreement on climate change. One of the agreed goals is to limit global warming to well below 2℃, and even aim for 1.5℃, compared to the pre-industrial era.

However, the latest synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which all governments explicitly endorsed, paints a stark reality. If we burn all of the fossil fuels that we currently have access to, then global warming will exceed 1.5℃ and may reach 2℃.

To avoid breaching the limits set out by the Paris agreement, some of the coal, oil and gas that we can already extract must remain unburnt. New fossil fuel extraction projects will make it even harder to stop further global warming.

Build up renewable infrastructure

There are other options. The UK government’s official advisers, the Climate Change Committee, have put forward a vision for UK power generation consistent with a net zero future. They say that the UK could provide all of its energy needs by 2050 through a combination of renewables, bioenergy, nuclear, hydrogen, storage and demand management, with some carbon capture and storage for fossil gas-based generation in the meantime.

A family walking dogs on a beach in front of an offshore wind farm.
The UK can achieve energy security without causing additional global warming.
Nigel Jarvis/Shutterstock

If the UK followed the example of China and rapidly increased its investments in renewable energy, then it could achieve energy security without causing additional global warming. China emits the most carbon dioxide of any country in the world. But it is installing more renewable energy generation than the rest of the world combined.

Rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, and not issuing new licenses to extract oil and gas, is the most effective way of minimising future climate-related disruptions. The sooner those with the power to shape our future recognise this, the better.


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Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue ReadingScience shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction

Conservatives are the ‘political wing of the fossil fuel industry’ as Sunak invites BP and Shell to Downing Street

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Extinction Rebellion protests at BP
Extinction Rebellion protests at BP. Banner reads big profits before planet

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/conservatives-are-the-political-wing-of-the-fossil-fuel-industry-as-sunak-invites-bp-and-shell-to-downing-street/

New Global Witness analysis shows that government ministers met with fossil fuel companies 54 times between January and March.

London, August 1st, 2023 – Between January and March of this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and climate and energy ministers met with fossil fuel companies 54 times, on average more than once every two days, according to new Global Witness analysis of UK government data. This amounts to around 20 per cent of all lobbying meetings they held in that period. (1)

This analysis comes as the Times reports that Sunak will meet with fossil fuel bosses on Wednesday, just two days after announcing that the Government would grant 100 new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea.

Scientists and campaigners have denounced the Government’s plans to U-turn on its climate commitments and “max out” North Sea oil and gas. This would lock the country deeper into a fossil fuel dependency that has left the UK with the highest energy bills in Western Europe.  

(1)    See Transparency International UK’s database on UK government lobbying, available at openaccess.transparency.org.uk.

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/conservatives-are-the-political-wing-of-the-fossil-fuel-industry-as-sunak-invites-bp-and-shell-to-downing-street/

Continue ReadingConservatives are the ‘political wing of the fossil fuel industry’ as Sunak invites BP and Shell to Downing Street

Twenty one Just Stop Oil supporters arrested

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Just Stop Oil are demanding that the UK government halt any new licensing or consents for oil, gas and coal extraction in the UK.

In an escalation of resistance from previous weeks, 180 Just Stop Oil supporters, in fourteen groups, began marching on key roads in central London. They marched in groups of between 5 and 25 supporters, carrying placards reading “new oil = murder”, “ hottest June ever” and “can’t eat oil”.

Police followed numerous groups before marches began and stopped and searched dozens of people. Police began issuing Public Order Act (Section 12) notices at 8:10am, just minutes after the first march set off. Three Just Stop Oil supporters were arrested after 15 minutes of marching on Liverpool Street. Around twenty Just Stop Oil supporters were arrested as they attempted to leave Lambeth bridge, however 11 of these were de-arrested. The team in Victoria was removed by 8:35. Police were seen following marchers on the tube at 9:00am. Another two were arrested on Liverpool Street at 9:45. At 10:30 two were arrested on Victoria Street.

Frances Davis, 20, from Norwich spoke to the camera as she was held in handcuffs:

“I’ve been marching for just under 15 minutes and I’m under arrest for demanding the same thing as the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the United Nations and the government’s own scientific advisors have been demanding- and we’ve just been ignored. We’ve tried everything else and now I’m in handcuffs, just for going on a march.”

This morning’s marches come as extreme heat continues to ravage Europe and now 110 million people have been issued extreme heat warnings in the US, as a heat dome over the US south-west has translated into coast to coast alerts. Temperature records could be broken in as many as 38 cities. In Las Vegas security guards can be seen guarding the fountains of upscale casinos and hotels to prevent people from jumping in, whilst mobile clinics are reporting treating homeless people suffering from third-degree burns.

Since the Just Stop Oil campaign launched on 14th February 2022, there have been over 2,200 arrests and 138 people have spent time in prison, many without trial. Just Stop Oil supporters Morgan Trowland and Marcus Decker are serving three-year prison sentences for resisting new oil, gas and coal in the longest sentences for peaceful climate action in British history.

Juststopoil.org.

Continue ReadingTwenty one Just Stop Oil supporters arrested

UK should quit ‘climate-wrecking’ energy treaty, say official advisers

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/10/uk-should-quit-energy-charter-treaty-climate-change-committee

The UK should quit a controversial energy treaty to stop it delaying vital climate action and triggering huge taxpayer payouts to fossil fuel companies, according to the government’s official advisers.

The energy charter treaty (ECT) is a system of secret courts that enables companies to sue governments over policies that would cut their future profits. Companies have sued over phasing out coal-fired power stations, ending offshore oil drilling and banning fracking. The UK’s Climate Change Committee said Britain should withdraw from the ECT because recently proposed reforms did not go far enough.

The UK and Japan are the only major economies not to have committed to exiting the ECT. France, Germany, Spain and others have already said they will leave and the EU is set to pull out en masse after saying that staying would “clearly undermine” climate targets.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/10/uk-should-quit-energy-charter-treaty-climate-change-committee

Continue ReadingUK should quit ‘climate-wrecking’ energy treaty, say official advisers

Taking Aim at Industry, UN Chief Warns Fossil Fuels ‘Incompatible With Human Survival’

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Original article republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

“The world must phase out fossil fuels in a just and equitable way—moving to leave oil, coal, and gas in the ground where they belong and massively boosting renewable investment in a just transition,” António Guterres said.

António Guterres (Image: ManfredFX licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Germany).

By Jessica Corbett Jun 15, 2023

As United Nations climate talks came to a disappointing conclusion in Germany on Thursday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres delivered remarks in New York City targeting “the polluted heart of the climate crisis: the fossil fuel industry.”

Guterres’ comments came just after he met with civil society leaders and ahead of his September Climate Ambition Summit in NYC, which is set to be followed in November by the U.N. conference COP28, hosted by the United Arab Emirates in Dubai.

“Countries are far off track in meeting climate promises and commitments. I see a lack of ambition. A lack of trust. A lack of support. A lack of cooperation. And an abundance of problems around clarity and credibility,” he said. “The climate agenda is being undermined. At a time when we should be accelerating action, there is backtracking. At a time when we should be filling gaps, those gaps are growing.”

“Meanwhile, the human rights of climate activists are being trampled. The most vulnerable are suffering the most,” Guterres continued, noting that current policies put the world on track for a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century, nearly double the 2015 Paris climate agreement’s more ambitious 1.5°C goal. Hitting the higher number, he said, “spells catastrophe.”

“Yet the collective response remains pitiful. We are hurtling towards disaster, eyes wide open—with far too many willing [to bet it] all on wishful thinking, unproven technologies, and silver bullet solutions,” he declared. “It’s time to wake up and step up. It’s time to rebuild trust based on climate justice. It’s time to accelerate the just transition to a green economy.”

“It’s time to wake up and step up. It’s time to rebuild trust based on climate justice. It’s time to accelerate the just transition to a green economy.”

While acknowledging the important roles of governments and financial institutions—particularly from the Global No[r]th—in the worldwide transition to renewables, Guterres also said that “the fossil fuel industry and its enablers have a special responsibility.”

“The problem is not simply fossil fuel emissions. It’s fossil fuels—period,” he said in what was widely seen as a rebuke of recent remarks from Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, whose selection as COP28’s president-designate is controversial around the world given that he is also the UAE’s industry minister and CEO of the country’s Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.

“The solution is clear: The world must phase out fossil fuels in a just and equitable way—moving to leave oil, coal, and gas in the ground where they belong and massively boosting renewable investment in a just transition,” Guterres asserted. However, just a tiny fraction of the oil and gas industry’s record $4 trillion windfall last year was put toward a clean future.

Stressing that “the world needs the industry to apply its massive resources to drive, not obstruct, the global move from fossil fuels to renewables,” Guterres called for “credible” transition plans “that chart a company’s move to clean energy—and away from a product incompatible with human survival.”

“Otherwise, they are just proposals to become more efficient planet-wreckers,” he said. Condemning plans that “rely on dubious offsets,” the U.N. leader said that they “must include reducing emissions from production, processing, transmission, refining, distribution, and use.”

While the press conference was far from the first time Guterres has called out the fossil fuel industry, his comments were lauded by campaigners preparing for a global mobilization in September, planned for just before the U.N. chief’s summit.

“The U.N. secretary-general’s speech echoes the call from people from across the world today demanding an end to the era of fossil fuels,” said Alex Rafalowicz, executive director of the Fossil Fuel Nonproliferation Treaty Initiative. “The time for rhetoric, empty promises, and greenwashing is over.”

“Governments must work together to put in place an action plan to move away from dependence on oil, gas, and coal in the fairest and fastest way possible,” Rafalowicz added. “We will be on the streets to ensure peoples’ demands are carried into the negotiation halls in September. Climate impacts are escalating, fossil fuel corporations are digging in, but people are stepping up to end fossil fuels; fair, fast, and forever.”

Guterres’ remarks came as negotiators finished gathering in the German city of Bonn to prepare for COP28.

Oil Change International (OCI) global policy lead Romain Ioualalen said Thursday that “this speech by the U.N. secretary-general is a wake-up call for the countries that wasted two weeks arguing over procedural matters at the Bonn climate conference instead of charting a path towards a COP28 decision to phase out fossil fuels.”

“Countries must step up and fulfill the promises they made in Paris in 2015 to halt fossil fuel expansion and agree to a fair, fast, and full transition away from oil, gas, and coal and towards renewables,” Ioualalen continued. “Over 70 countries have called for a COP28 decision on fossil fuel phaseout in Bonn. Countries like Colombia and the members of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance are doing the hard work of implementing measures to keep oil and gas in the ground.”

“The contrast between this leadership and the actions of the world’s biggest historic polluter, the United States, could not be more striking,” he argued, adding that under President Joe Biden, “the U.S. has failed in its responsibility to lead a global and just transition away from fossil fuels and avert further climate disaster and has instead actively promoted fossil fuel expansion including with public money.”

OCI was among over 500 groups that sent a letter Thursday to Biden and leaders of key U.S. federal agencies demanding executive action “to stop expanding oil, gas, and coal production, the core driver of the climate emergency,” by the September summit.

Original article republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

Continue ReadingTaking Aim at Industry, UN Chief Warns Fossil Fuels ‘Incompatible With Human Survival’