https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/13/mahmood-migration-reforms-fraction-claimed-savings

Exclusive: Analysis of government figures indicates public finances will gain £600m not £10bn if migrants’ access to benefits is reduced

Shabana Mahmood’s migration changes are expected to save just £600m – about 6% of the £10bn the home secretary claimed, according to the government’s own data.

Under the plans, most people would have to wait 10 years to qualify for settled status, rather than the existing five-year period, which the home secretary argued would save costs on public services.

But only a fraction of the figure the home secretary suggested would be saved by the changes, according to data from the migration advisory committee obtained via a freedom of information request.

Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London who obtained the data, said the savings were likely to be offset by costs of migrants leaving the UK and high earners being deterred from moving to the UK.

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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/apr/13/mahmood-migration-reforms-fraction-claimed-savings