‘Unprecedented’ weather pattern over Pacific Ocean to be felt worldwide, with severe droughts expected in some areas
The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than a century and make 2027 another record-breaking year for heat, the UK’s Met Office has said.
Increased rainfall and storms are forecast to hit the UK this autumn as a result of the “unprecedented” weather pattern, while the pulse in heat it generates means the global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the preindustrial average, according to the national weather service.
Some scientists have said temperatures could rise by as much as 1.7C during 2027. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
Scaife said a typical El Niño involved Pacific sea temperatures rising by more than 1C, “with 2C being a really big event”. This year Pacific sea temperatures are expected to rise by 3C, making this El Niño “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office.
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A series of record heatwaves and a lack of rainfall in recent months has brought the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England, and all of Wales, into drought, putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
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