A woman battling with her umbrella on Brighton beach. The Met Office expert said there were signals for increased UK rainfall this autumn. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images
‘Unprecedented’ weather pattern over Pacific Ocean to be felt worldwide, with severe droughts expected in some areas
The El Niño event developing over the Pacific Ocean is likely to be the strongest for more than a century and make 2027 another record-breaking year for heat, the UK’s Met Office has said.
Increased rainfall and storms are forecast to hit the UK this autumn as a result of the “unprecedented” weather pattern, while the pulse in heat it generates means the global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the preindustrial average, according to the national weather service.
Some scientists have said temperatures could rise by as much as 1.7C during 2027. “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,” said Prof Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting. “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
Scaife said a typical El Niño involved Pacific sea temperatures rising by more than 1C, “with 2C being a really big event”. This year Pacific sea temperatures are expected to rise by 3C, making this El Niño “the largest since the 19th century”, according to the Met Office.
…
A series of record heatwaves and a lack of rainfall in recent months has brought the driest July in 190 years and has pushed almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England, and all of Wales, into drought, putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Orcas comment on killer apes destroying the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels.
A maize crop affected by lack of rain in Zimbabwe. ‘The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season,’ one expert said. Photograph: Aaron Ufumeli/EPA
UN forecasters warn of worsening conditions in 45 countries currently experiencing severe food insecurity
About 50 million people are likely to be pushed into acute hunger before the end of next year by the rapidly developing El Niño weather system, according to forecasting.
This is in addition to the hundreds of millions of people already facing dangerous levels of hunger, owing to years of drought in parts of Africa and pressure on food prices from the war in Iran.
Even if the forecast El Niño is less strong than some models predict, it will tip many countries over the edge, adding more than a fifth to the 225 million people in 45 countries currently in acute food insecurity, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday.
Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to be worst affected, according to the analysis. In south and south-east Asia there is likely to be less rainfall than usual, which would cause serious problems for agriculture and farmers.
This year’s El Niño – a weather system that develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean and brings changes to rainfall patterns around the world – is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years. Some are calling it a “super El Niño”, though this term is not officially recognised.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Power-mad orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of south Asia. Photograph: Kevin Herbian/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
UN agency predicts phenomenon that supercharges weather extremes has 80% chance of forming before September
The world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned.
The powerful natural weather pattern, which raises global temperatures and worsens some rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
It found most models projected the return of the cyclical phenomenon in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” in strength, and possibly strong.
Scientists have previously warned that it could be the strongest this century. However, the WMO stopped short of backing such projections and said forecasters were still in a window of uncertainty.
Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark RichardsGreenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London. (Photo: Handout/Chris J. Ratcliffe for Greenpeace via Getty Images)Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
Southern Vietnam in 2024, the hottest year ever recorded globally. Photograph: Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images
Global temperature record could be broken as soon as 2027, with El Niño expected later this year
A record-breaking hot year is almost certain by 2030 as the climate crisis intensifies, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization has warned.
With an El Niño event expected later this year, the global temperature record could fall as soon as 2027.
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are continuing to rise, trapping more heat and driving more extreme weather, including the record-breaking heatwave that has hit the UK and Europe this week.
Global heating is already estimated to be taking one life every minute, with the toll likely to rise unless emissions fall rapidly.
The report, produced for the WMO by the UK Met Office, predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.
Simon Stiell, the UN climate chief, said: “The latest heatwave in Europe is a brutal reminder of the spiralling impacts of the climate crisis, both human and economic. Many other parts of the world are also getting hit hard, such as India and other parts of Asia.”
Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
The waters of southern California historically warm every few years. But the marine heatwave that started last fall wasn’t caused by tropical currents. Photograph: Kevin Carter/Getty Images
Researchers warn the high-pressure conditions could disrupt marine life and ecosystems if it continues
…
The waters of southern California historically warm every few years as tropical currents make their way north, a phenomenon known as El Niño. But the marine heatwave that started last fall wasn’t caused by tropical currents. Instead, a high-pressure atmospheric system – think of calm, sunny days – has perched above southern California, warming both air and sea above historic levels. The same phenomenon has helped fuel a ferocious California heatwave on land.
The extended ocean warming has drawn comparisons to “the Blob”, a three-year marine heatwave caused by similar prolonged high-pressure conditions a decade ago that devastated marine life. The next few weeks are likely to determine whether this marine heatwave fizzles out or evolves into something more Blob-like, scientists say.
“The biggest concern is how the year plays out,” Andrew Leising, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said. “We could be looking at much larger impacts next fall and winter, if it stays warm and then it’s followed by a strong El Niño.”
…
Prolonged ocean heat has a devastating impact on phytoplankton and can cause harmful algal blooms. Those changes can wreak havoc on many forms of marine life, from sea lions and dolphins, to shore birds and halibut. The Blob years led to one of the worst Dungeness crab seasons in recent history, said Melissa Carter, a researcher at the UC-San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Such heatwaves are becoming more common and lasting longer, partly because of the slow warming of the oceans driven by the climate crisis, and partly because of atmospheric changes that scientists are still struggling to understand.
Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Experienced climbers scale a rock face near the historic Dumbarton castle in Glasgow, releasing a banner that reads “Climate on a Cliff Edge.” One activist, dressed as a globe, symbolically looms near the edge, while another plays the bagpipes on the shores below. | Photo courtesy of Extinction Rebellion and Mark Richards
