56 days before Israeli elections, Prime Minister Netanyahu grows weaker: Analysis

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Hundreds of people gather for a protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government and demanding his resignation and early elections in Tel Aviv, Israel on March 16, 2024. [Saeed Qaq – Anadolu Agency]

With 56 days left until Israel’s elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears increasingly weakened as his rivals gain ground, Anadolu reports.

Israel’s Knesset elections are scheduled for Oct. 27, with polls showing declining support for Netanyahu and his Likud party.

Netanyahu views the vote as decisive for his political and personal future as he faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

In addition to corruption charges, Netanyahu has faced an International Criminal Court arrest warrant since 2024 on charges related to war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza Strip.

He sees remaining in power as protection from a possible criminal conviction, as Israel’s Central Court continues to hear the corruption case against him.

Netanyahu hopes the election will either allow him to form the next government or lead to a deadlock in which both he and the opposition fail to assemble a coalition, forcing another election and keeping him in office until a new government is formed.

A poll published Sunday evening by the Israeli public broadcaster showed that if elections were held now, Netanyahu’s bloc would win 52 seats, while the non-Arab opposition would secure 55 seats and Arab lawmakers 13.

A party bloc needs the support of at least 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat Knesset to form a government.

Opposition parties could seek Arab lawmakers’ support to form a government, but most of their leaders reject such a move.

Attention is now turning to former Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who is seen as the strongest opposition figure to form a government.

READ: Israeli finance minister unveils plan to ‘Judaize’ Negev, Galilee ahead of elections

His newly established Yashar party has advanced in recent weeks, even overtaking Netanyahu’s Likud, which dominated Israeli politics for years.

According to the poll, Yashar would win 24 seats, compared with 21 for Likud.

The survey also showed Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu in suitability for premiership, with 40% of respondents saying he is better suited to lead the next government, compared with 37% for Netanyahu.

Netanyahu is using all available means to boost votes for right-wing parties.

He has faced accusations in Israel of turning a blind eye to occupier violence against Palestinians in the West Bank in order to keep occupiers within the electoral base of the hard-right.

Netanyahu and far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have also boasted that the government formed in late 2022 approved the construction of 104 illegal settlements and allowed the establishment of 160 agricultural settlement outposts in the occupied West Bank.

But Netanyahu faces two main challenges: the rise of new right-wing parties, which he says could “burn” tens of thousands of right-wing votes, and the unity of three Arab parties under the Joint List, which is expected to increase Arab turnout.

While earlier polls gave Arab lawmakers 10 seats, recent surveys indicate they could win at least 13.

Higher turnout among Arab citizens, who make up around 20% of Israel’s population of 10 million, could reduce the chances of small right-wing parties crossing the electoral threshold, weakening Netanyahu’s ability to form a government and improving the opposition’s chances.

Netanyahu has therefore been trying to unite small right-wing parties under the banner of preventing the loss of right-wing votes.

READ: Netanyahu in closed talks: Likud will lose election unless situation changes

He called for a merger between Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Jewish Power party and Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party, but the effort failed.

Netanyahu is now backing unity between Smotrich and former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin.

Israeli Channel 24 reported Monday that, as the deadline for submitting election lists approaches, Netanyahu is exerting heavy pressure to form a three-way right-wing alliance involving Smotrich, Feiglin, and either Ben-Gvir or Ofer Winter.

“The situation is Russian roulette that no one wants to play. We are not succeeding in bringing about unity,” the channel quoted an unnamed Likud source.

The channel said only 10 days remain before lists close and less than two months before election day.

Likud officials realize that without right-wing alliances, some parties may fail to pass the electoral threshold, endangering the entire bloc’s seat count, the report said.

Netanyahu has also stepped up interviews with right-wing platforms and Channel 14, which is close to him, trying to present himself as the only figure capable of providing security.

He accused the opposition of planning to end the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran and of allowing the establishment of a Palestinian state.

“What we saw yesterday in Netanyahu’s interview was a bizarre performance by a hysterical, frightened, obsessive, and unfocused man. I’ve never seen him like that. And I was there with him in those situations. It was heartbreaking,” prominent Maariv columnist Ben Caspit wrote on US social media platform X, quoting an unnamed figure who has accompanied Netanyahu through dozens of interviews and election campaigns in recent years.

READ: Netanyahu urges Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to unite ahead of elections

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