Just Stop Oil at Parliament Square protest 30 October 2023. Police issued and made arrests under a Section 7 order. Image: Just Stop Oil.
65 Just Stop Oil marchers were arrested at Parliament Square on Monday after 10 minutes marching. Unlike previous Just Stop Oil slow marches which were policed using Section 12 orders, they issued a Section 7 order which criminalises members of the public based on alleged interference with ‘the use or operation of key national infrastructure’.
“Just in the last week, seven people have died in the UK as a result of extreme weather and scientists are telling us it will only get worse. Neither major political party is serving the interests of the country- they are serving the mass murderers profiting while the world burns. There is no real opposition.
“In times of crisis, it is down to ordinary people to take a stand against the rich and powerful by disrupting business-as-usual. We know it works. A mass road blocking campaign has just forced the Dutch government to halt oil and gas subsidies. That’s why people are coming together from all over the UK to march day after day in London from today. Its People vs Oil! Sign up at JustStopOil.org”
One of the participants, Dr Ian Chapman, 52, a GP from Bury St Edmunds said:
“20 or 30 years from now, I won’t look back and regret having taken direct action, but I will regret it if I don’t. I expect to get arrested today, whilst the people in the building I’m marching past are making decisions that will kill millions. I will get off the road when the police take action against the real criminals.”
“We’re running out of time, and we all need to do what we can, right now. I don’t see how you can say you care about future generations, or your nieces and nephews or your grandchildren – I don’t see how you can say you love your children – if you do nothing to stop the destruction of the world they are going to grow up in.”
Imogen May, 24, a food producer from Halesworth said:
“I’m marching with Just Stop Oil because I have a six month old nephew, and I am so scared to think what his world will look like in five or ten years’ time. I’d love to live a normal life, without worrying about climate collapse. I know that to have a chance at having a normal life later, we have to take action now.”
“We’re simply demanding that the UK government does what its own advisors are asking it to do; the same thing as the United Nations, the Climate Change Committee and the Independent Panel on Climate Change. We must halt all new licences for fossil fuel production in the UK.”
The Labour leader Keir Starmer has reaffirmed his opposition to a ceasefire in Gaza in a major speech today. Starmer made the speech to set out the Labour Party’s position on the ongoing situation in the Middle East amidst deep divisions in his party.
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Starmer’s speech has received a mixed response.
A spokesperson for Labour’s left wing faction Momentum said: “For all the fine words, Keir Starmer hasn’t shifted one inch: his speech today still backs Israel’s war on Gaza and opposes the ceasefire demanded by everyone from the UN to Save the Children.
“Thus Starmer backs a pause in hostilities – then a resumption of Israeli bombing which has already killed more than 3,000 children. To call this ‘humanitarian’ is an insult to the Palestinian people.”
Deputy leader of the Green Party Zack Polanski said: “Keir Starmer siding with the Conservatives by refusing to call for a ceasefire. He says that he’s not saying this to start “a new round of arguments or hand wringing.” If there’s any justice, they won’t get away with this. The UK population calling: we need a ceasefire now.”
If humanity wants to have a 50-50 chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, we can only emit 250 another gigatonnes (billion metric tonnes) of CO₂. This effectively gives the world just six years to get to net zero, according to calculations in our new paper published in Nature Climate Change.
The global level of emissions is presently 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year. And, as this figure was calculated from the start of 2023, the time limit may be actually closer to five years.
Our estimate is consistent with an assessment published by 50 leading climate scientists in June and updates with new climate data many of the key figures reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August 2021.
How much CO₂ can still be emitted while remaining under a certain level of warming is referred to as the “carbon budget”. The carbon budget concept works because the increase in Earth’s global mean surface temperature has increased in a linear fashion with the total amount of CO₂ people have emitted since the industrial revolution.
The other side of this equation is that, roughly speaking, warming stops when CO₂ emissions stop: in other words, at net zero CO₂. This explains why net zero is such an important concept and why so many countries, cities, and companies have adopted net zero targets.
We revised the remaining carbon budget down from the 500 gigatonnes reported by the the IPCC from the start of 2020. Some of this revision is merely timing: three years and 120 gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions later, the world is closer to the 1.5°C threshold. Improvements we made to the method for calculating budget adjustments shrank the remaining budget further.
Clearing the air
Alongside CO₂, humanity emits other greenhouse gases and air pollutants that contribute to climate change. We adjusted the budget to account for the projected warming caused by these non-CO₂ pollutants. To do this, we used a large database of future emissions scenarios to determine how non-CO₂ warming is related to total warming.
Some of the warming caused by greenhouse gases is offset by cooling aerosols such as sulphates – air pollutants that are emitted along with CO₂ from car exhausts and furnaces. Almost all emissions scenarios project a reduction in aerosol emissions in the future, regardless of whether fossil fuels are phased out or CO₂ emissions continue unabated. Even in scenarios where CO₂ emissions increase, scientists expect stricter air quality legislation and cleaner combustion.
Scientists predict air pollution which cools the climate will decline in future. NadyGinzburg/Shutterstock
In its most recent report, the IPCC updated its best estimate of how much air pollution cools the climate. As a result, we expect that falling air pollution in future will contribute more to warming than previously assessed. This reduces the remaining 1.5°C budget by about another 110 gigatonnes.
Other updates we made to the carbon budget methodology tend to reduce the budget even more, such as projections of thawing permafrost that were not included in earlier estimates.
All is not lost
It is important to stress that many aspects of our carbon budget estimate are uncertain. The balance of non-CO₂ pollutants in future emissions scenarios can be as influential on the remaining carbon budget as different interpretations of how the climate is likely to respond.
We also do not know for sure whether the planet will really stop warming at net zero CO₂ emissions. On average, evidence from climate models tends to suggest it will, but some models show substantial warming continuing for decades after net zero is reached. If further warming after net zero is the case, the budget would be further reduced.
These uncertain factors are why we quote a 50/50 likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C at 250 gigatonnes of CO₂. A more risk-averse assessment would report a two-in-three chance of staying under 1.5°C with a remaining budget of 60 gigatonnes – or one-and-a-half years of current emissions.
Time is running out to limit global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While we have revised the remaining carbon budget, the message from earlier assessments is unchanged: a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to halt climate change.
It looks less likely that we will limit warming to 1.5°C, but this does not mean that we should give up hope. Our update also revised the budget for 2°C downwards relative to the IPCC’s 2021 estimate, but by a smaller amount – from 1,350 to 1,220 gigatonnes, or from 34 to 30 years of current emissions. If current national climate policies are fully implemented (admittedly, an optimistic scenario), this may be enough to hold warming below 2°C.
The risks of triggering tipping points such as the dieback of the Amazon rainforest increase – sometimes sharply – with increasing warming, but 1.5°C itself is not a hard boundary beyond which climate chaos abounds.
Tipping points in the Earth system could dramatically accelerate climate change. Beto Santillan/Shutterstock
With effective action on emissions, we can still limit peak warming to 1.6°C or 1.7°C, with a view to bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C in the longer term.
This is a goal absolutely worth pursuing.
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In the wake of the destructive Hurricane Otis, we find ourselves at a pivotal moment in the history of weather forecasting. The hurricane roared ashore with 165mph winds and torrential rainfall, slamming into the coastal city of Acapulco, Mexico and claiming the lives of at least 48 people.
The speed at which Otis intensified was unprecedented. Within 12 hours it went from a regular tropical storm to a “category 5” hurricane, the most powerful category and one which might occur only a few times worldwide each year.
This rare and alarming event, described by the US National Hurricane Center as a “nightmare scenario”, broke records for the fastest intensification rate over a 12-hour period in the eastern Pacific. Otis not only caught residents and authorities off guard but also exposed the limitations of our current predictive tools.
I specialise in the study of natural disasters with the goal of improving our ability to predict them and ultimately to save lives. It is critical that we address the pressing concerns related to the tools we use for forecasting these catastrophic events, all while recognising the significant influence of rapid climate change on our forecasting capabilities.
The predictive tools we rely on
At the core of weather forecasting are computer programs, or “models”, that blend atmospheric variables such as temperature, humidity, wind and pressure, with fundamental physics.
Since the atmospheric processes are nonlinear, a small degree of uncertainty in initial atmospheric conditions can lead to a large discrepancy in final forecasts. That’s why the general practice now is to forecast a set of possible scenarios rather than predict the single scenario most likely to occur.
Hurricane Otis reaches its maximum intensity just as it hits Acapulco on October 25. ABI / NOAA GOES-16 / wiki
But while these models are instrumental in issuing early warnings and evacuation orders, they have fundamental limitations and carry a significant degree of uncertainty, especially when dealing with rare or extreme weather. This uncertainty arises from various factors including the fundamentally chaotic nature of the system.
First, the historical data is incomplete, since a hurricane such as Otis might occur only once in several millennia. We don’t know when an east Pacific storm last turned into a category 5 hurricane overnight – if ever – but it was certainly before modern satellites and weather buoys. Our models struggle to account for these “one in 1,000-year events” because we simply haven’t observed them before.
The complex physics governing the weather also has to be simplified in these predictive models. While this approach is effective for common scenarios, it falls short when dealing with the intricacies of extreme events that involve rare combinations of variables and factors.
And then there are the unknown unknowns: factors our models cannot account for because we are unaware of them, or they have not been integrated into our predictive frameworks. Unanticipated interactions among various climatic drivers can lead to unprecedented intensification, as was the case with Hurricane Otis.
The role of climate change
To all this we can add the problem of climate change and its impact on extreme weather. Hurricanes, in particular, are influenced by rising sea surface temperatures, which provides more energy for storms to form and intensify.
The connection between climate change and the intensification of hurricanes, coupled with other factors such as high precipitation or high tides, is becoming clearer.
With established weather patterns being altered, it is becoming even more challenging to predict the behaviour of storms and their intensification. Historical data may no longer serve as a reliable guide.
The way forward
The challenges are formidable but not insurmountable. There are a few steps we can take to enhance our forecasting and better prepare for the uncertainties that lie ahead.
The first would be to develop more advanced predictive models that integrate a broader range of factors and variables, as well as consider worst-case scenarios. Artificial intelligence and machine learning tools can help us process vast and complex datasets more efficiently.
But to get this additional data we’ll have to invest in more weather monitoring stations, satellite technology, AI tools and atmospheric and oceanographic research.
Since even world experts and their models can be caught out by sudden weather extremes, we also need to educate the public about the limitations and uncertainties in weather forecasting.
We must encourage preparedness and a proactive response to warnings, even when predictions seem uncertain. And of course we still have to mitigate climate change itself: the root cause of intensifying weather events.
Hurricane Otis provided a stark and immediate reminder of the inadequacies of our current predictive tools in the face of rapid climate change and increasingly extreme weather events. The urgency to adapt and innovate in the realm of weather forecasting has never been greater.
It is incumbent upon us to rise to the occasion and usher in a new era of prediction that can keep pace with the ever-shifting dynamics of our planet’s climate. Our future depends on it.
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“One child’s death is one too many, but these are grave violations of epic proportions,” said the humanitarian group Save the Children. “A cease-fire is the only way to ensure their safety.”
Over just a three-week period, the Israeli military has killed at least 3,195 children in the Gaza Strip—a death toll that surpasses the annual number of children killed in all of the world’s armed conflict zones since 2019.
That’s according to a disturbing new analysis by Save the Children, which observed that kids make up more than 40% of the total death toll in the Gaza Strip since October 7, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel that was met with a massive bombing campaign and an intensifying ground attack.
The humanitarian group noted that, according to the United Nations, at least 1,000 Gazan children have been reported missing and may be trapped under rubble, meaning the reported death toll is almost certainly an underestimate. UNICEF has called child deaths in Gaza “a growing stain on our collective conscience” and demanded a cease-fire.
Save the Children did the same on Sunday. Jason Lee, Save the Children’s country director for the occupied Palestinian territory, said in a statement that “three weeks of violence have ripped children from families and torn through their lives at an unimaginable rate.”
“The numbers are harrowing and with violence not only continuing but expanding in Gaza right now, many more children remain at grave risk,” Lee added. “One child’s death is one too many, but these are grave violations of epic proportions. A cease-fire is the only way to ensure their safety. The international community must put people before politics—every day spent debating is leaving children killed and injured. Children must be protected at all times, especially when they are seeking safety in schools and hospitals.”
Save the Children cites the most recent three annual reports from the U.N. secretary-general, which have found that 2,985 children were killed across two dozen countries last year, 2,515 were killed in 2021, and 2,674 were killed in 2020. More than 4,000 children were killed in global conflicts in 2019.
3,195 children killed in #Gaza in just three weeks has surpassed the annual number of children killed across the world's conflict zones since 2019. We are calling for an immediate ceasefire. pic.twitter.com/vrEQ846tPB
— Save the Children International (@save_children) October 29, 2023
The group’s analysis was released days after it warned that Israel’s expanded ground assault on the Gaza Strip has put children “at heightened risk of loss of life, physical harm, severe emotional distress, and protracted displacement.”
Israeli troops and tanks advanced toward Gaza City on Monday and “blocked one of the main roads connecting the northern part of the Gaza Strip to the south,” The Wall Street Journalreported, “a major advance that appeared aimed at encircling the enclave’s biggest population center.”
More than a million Gazans had already been displaced by Israeli airstrikes before the country launched its fresh ground attack late last week. Israeli bombing has also destroyed or damaged at least 45% of Gaza’s housing units.
On Friday, as Israel ruthlessly bombed northern Gaza and knocked out the territory’s internet and communications, a Save the Children team member in Gaza warned in a message that “we could all die, we could survive, we could survive, we could… pray for us.”
Save the Children said later in the day that it lost contact with its team on the ground in Gaza.
“This is pure horror for all children and their parents,” Lee said Friday. “Across the Gaza Strip, more than one million children are trapped in the middle of an active conflict zone with no safe place to go and no route to safety. With communications down, children are cut off from the world, more isolated than ever before. They are unable to speak to loved ones, or even to call an ambulance.”
“Despite Save the Children and thousands of other voices calling for an urgent cease-fire, we are seeing an increase in military operations,” he continued. “We call on all parties to the conflict to take immediate steps to protect the lives of children, and on the international community to support those efforts, as is their obligation.”
