El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of south Asia. Photograph: Kevin Herbian/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
UN agency predicts phenomenon that supercharges weather extremes has 80% chance of forming before September
The world must prepare for the imminent return of El Niño and the supercharged weather extremes it brings, the UN has warned.
The powerful natural weather pattern, which raises global temperatures and worsens some rainfall, has an 80% chance of forming before September and a 90% chance before November, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.
It found most models projected the return of the cyclical phenomenon in the ocean and atmosphere to be “at least moderate” in strength, and possibly strong.
Scientists have previously warned that it could be the strongest this century. However, the WMO stopped short of backing such projections and said forecasters were still in a window of uncertainty.
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Tourists and locals paddleboard at the sunrise on the Mediterranean Sea in Barcelona, Spain July 2, 2025. REUTERS/Nacho Doce Purchase Licensing Rights
June 2 (Reuters) – Spain registered record sea temperatures for the month of May along much of its coastline, the country’s port authority said on Tuesday, as the UN forecast a moderate or possibly strong El Nino, which could drive up global temperatures in coming months.
Twelve out of 15 deep-water buoys recorded their highest-ever temperatures for the month of May, as well as six out of 14 buoys along the coast, according to the Spanish port authority.
Human-caused climate change was behind the phenomenon, said Ruben del Campo, spokesperson for Spanish weather agency AEMET.
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The south-east of England experienced mains water supply issues last week due to high demand in the hot weather
The UK could see a warmer-than-average summer with the potential for more heatwaves, according to latest forecasts.
The Met Office released its three-month summer outlook on 1 June – the first day of meteorological summer – citing higher-than-normal chances of hotter weather during the month.
And for the whole summer – which runs through to the end of August – the outlook suggests “an increased chance of heatwaves and heat-related impacts”.
It comes after a late spring heatwave saw temperature records shattered across the UK.
A new all-time May record of 35.1C was set in Kew Gardens, London, replacing the previous record of 32.8C from 1944.
Yellow and amber heat health alerts were also issued for the first time this year.
Now, long-range forecasts from the Met Office and MeteoGroup – the latter being providers of BBC Weather data – suggest the summer ahead will bring the risk of additional heatwaves.
A “few notable high temperature spikes” are also possible according to MeteoGroup.
They also go on to say that “above-average temperatures” are expected for each of the months of June, July and August, and “significant bursts” of heat are expected in the UK, and across Europe.
But, according to the Met Office, the higher than average temperatures forecast comes as having a hotter summer is now twice as likely than the reference averaging period of 1991-2020, consistent with our warming climate.
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Researchers prepare to deploy a glider instrument into the ocean. (Photo by Rebecca Travis/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
“Blinding the public to climate change won’t make it go away. It will only accelerate its profound consequences.”
In what a number of scientists suggested was the Trump administration’s latest effort to stop tracking the changing climate in hopes of convincing the public that the climate emergency isn’t happening, the National Science Foundation announced Monday that it was dismantling a crucial deep-ocean monitoring system that for years has helped researchers understand the impacts of the crisis on the world’s oceans.
The NSF said it plans to send ships this month to remove more than 900 instruments, part of a project called the Ocean Observatories Initiative. The project collects data on temperatures, currents, and the ocean’s absorption of carbon dioxide off the coasts of Oregon, Alaska, Washington, and North Carolina, as well as in the Irminger Sea between Iceland and Greenland.
A spokesperson for NSF told The New York Times that the dismantling of the initiative will help the NSF in “prioritizing support for evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies as well as a deliberate approach to smart life cycle management within its portfolio of research infrastructure.”
The reasoning given for the shuttering of the project, said Tara Blume, a journalist at Oklahoma City NBC affiliate KFOR, was “a master class in obfuscation and doublespeak.”
Genevieve Guenther of the group End Climate Silence shared her own interpretation of why the $368 million ocean observation system is being discontinued, despite the fact that it had been set to collect data for 25 years.
“We need to track ocean currents to assess how close we are to climate tipping points that will essentially destroy the world as we know it,” said Guenther. “The GOP doesn’t want us to be able to do that. That’s why they’re dismantling ocean monitoring.”
"By dismantling such a system, we push the United States back yet again into a rear seat in global scientific leadership." https://t.co/TSKsORuTX9
Scientists have used data gathered by moorings, robotic vehicles, and other instruments that transmit the information to research laboratories, to study changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC), a current system that moves warm water northward and cools the Arctic and Northern Atlantic regions while absorbing carbon dioxide deep into the ocean and keeping it out of the atmosphere.
Data gathered at the observation station in the Irminger Sea has been key to understanding AMOC, which scientists fear is gradually weakening due to planetary heating and could ultimately collapse, likely causing major global weather changes.
“This is absolutely crazy,” said David Doniger, a senior strategist and attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate and energy department. “Wouldn’t you want to know if the ocean currents are changing? Wouldn’t you want to know ocean temperatures? These things affect everything from fishing to hurricanes.”
Following the announcement that the stations will be dismantled in the coming weeks, said Blume, “science gasps for breath.”
President Donald Trump has attempted several times to shut down or drastically reduce the budget of the Ocean Observatories Initiative, which costs $48 million annually to run. Congress has restored the program’s funding.
The dismantling of the program comes months after the Environmental Protection Agencyrepealed the “endangerment finding,” which for years had underpinned the department’s environmental regulations; after the administration closed down the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which had gathered data on hurricanes and extreme weather to help improve forecasts; and after the National Aeronautics and Space Administration released a statement on record-breaking temperatures in 2024 and 2025—without any mention of the climate crisis or climate change.
“Blinding the public to climate change won’t make it go away. It will only accelerate its profound consequences,” said clinical researcher Iris Gorfinkel.
According to the Trump administration, said historian Nick Kapur, “apparently climate change doesn’t exist if you prevent scientists from measuring it.”
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New York Attorney General Letitia James leads a news conference in Albany, New York on Monday, March 16, 2026. (Will Waldron/Albany Times Union via Getty Images)
“We are fighting back to stop this illegal agreement that threatens to erase over a thousand union jobs and cheat millions of New Yorkers out of clean, affordable energy,” said New York AG Letitia James.
A group of state attorneys general sued the Trump administration on Tuesday, in an effort to block an unprecedented deal it made to pay an energy company to abandon a pair of large East Coast wind energy projects and invest in more polluting fossil fuel infrastructure instead.
As part of efforts to unilaterally block private wind power construction across the US while revving up fossil fuel production, the Interior Department agreed to pay $928 million in taxpayer funds to the French energy company TotalEnergies to scrap construction plans for a large wind project off the coast of New York and another off North Carolina, the leases for which had been approved back in 2022.
In exchange, the company agreed to halt any future development of clean power in the US and invest hundreds of millions of dollars in oil and gas projects instead.
On Tuesday, New York Attorney General Letitia James announced that she was leading a coalition of seven northeastern state AGs—from New Jersey, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont—in a lawsuit seeking to block the agreement.
James described the deal as an unlawful attempt to get around a previous court rejection of President Donald Trump’s Day One executive order halting all wind energy development in the US.
“The Trump administration is once again trying to kill clean energy projects and destroy good-paying jobs for New Yorkers,” James said. “After repeatedly losing in court, this administration cooked up a sham deal to pay a foreign energy company hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars to abandon offshore wind and invest in oil and gas instead. We are fighting back to stop this illegal agreement that threatens to erase over a thousand union jobs and cheat millions of New Yorkers out of clean, affordable energy.”
The canceled New York project was expected to produce up to 1.4 gigawatts of energy for the state, powering more than 700,000 homes annually. According to a press release from James’ office, it was projected to save New Yorkers $10 billion over its 25-year lifespan.
Another section of the Bight construction lease was slated for a wind farm projected to provide about 1.3 gigawatts to homes in New Jersey, powering 650,000 homes and generating $3 billion in economic benefits, according to state officials.
The other project set for North Carolina was projected by TotalEnergies to generate more than 1 gigawatt of power, enough for 300,000 homes.
The Oceantic Network, a nonprofit that supports the construction of offshore wind projects, estimated that the cancellation of a single 1-gigawatt offshore wind project costs between $8.5-9.5 billion in US economic output and about 3,350 construction jobs, along with hundreds of millions of dollars in lost wages.
Liz Burdock, the president and CEO of Oceantic, commended the states attempting to stop the Trump administration from killing the projects at a time when oil and gas costs are skyrocketing, largely due to Trump’s war with Iran.
“For more than a year, offshore wind has faced an unprecedented and unrelenting campaign of political interference despite billions in private investment, state commitments, and court rulings,” Burdock said. “These continued attacks on offshore wind are not just an assault on a single industry—they are an attack on American workers, energy affordability, national security, and the states’ right to shape their own energy future.”
