Scientists protest climate inaction 25 November 2022
Dubai, UAE – Analysis released today by the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network (PICAN) and Oil Change International confirms that:
At least 127 countries have called for or endorsed a decision to phaseout fossil fuels at this year’s UN climate negotiations
These countries account for 71.7% of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and represent 46.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 69.7% of global GDP
By comparison, at last year’s UN climate negotiations, 80 countries called for a phaseout or phase down of fossil fuels – and that call was limited to only the electricity sector. This analysis confirms that there is now unprecedented momentum to phaseout all fossil fuels.
Of those countries that have not yet endorsed phasing out fossil fuels, very few have actively opposed. Almost all the remaining countries would likely agree to phaseout fossil fuels if this was tied to financial support, coupled with a successful outcome on adaptation, and differentiated developed and developing countries.
Lavetanalagi Seru, Regional Coordinator for the Pacific Islands Climate Action Network, said:
“A call that originated in the Pacific has now become an unstoppable global force. Pacific nations were the first to call for an end to fossil fuel expansion and a just and complete phaseout of fossil fuels, as a matter of vital necessity, to guarantee our collective survival. Now, we urge countries present at COP28 to heed this call and deliver an agreement on the end of the fossil fuel era. A small minority of blockers cannot be allowed to jeopardize the future of our nations”.
Romain Ioualalen, Global Policy manager for Oil Change International, said:
“There is unprecedented people-powered momentum – supported by 127 countries – for a historic agreement on fossil fuel phaseout at COP28 to finally tackle the root cause of the climate crisis: oil, gas, and coal. The opposition comes from two groups. First, a small group of rich and powerful governments and companies are trying to prolong the fossil fuel economy, as illustrated by a letter sent by OPEC to OPEC member countries encouraging them to reject any language on fossil fuel phaseout. Second, there are developing countries who would agree to phaseout fossil fuels if wealthy nations provided real assurances of finance and support, unlocked a meaningful outcome on adaptation, and agreed to act first and fastest to phase out fossil fuels.
“We must call out the fossil fuel lobby’s lies, and push wealthy nations to hear developing states’ demands for equity and justice. 2023 can still be the year where countries commit to phaseout fossil fuels. As the negotiations heat up in their final hours, countries’ actions must match their words. There is no time to waste. We need action commensurate with the scientific consensus: a full, fast, fair, funded phaseout of fossil fuels.”
Scientists protest at UK Parliament 5 September 2023.Just Stop Oil protesting in London 6 December 2022.Morgan Trowland and Marcus Decker protest and close the M25 Dartford Bridge.
“Climate Crisis” only identifies the symptoms of oil and gas dependence. As time runs out, we need a term that focuses on what — and who — is to blame.
This article by Capital & Main is published here as part of the global journalism collaboration Covering Climate Now.
There’s always a lag between a rupture of the status quo and settling on a word for it. The planet is heating at a life-threatening pace. And yet the two words we use to describe this rupture — “climate” and “change” — are beginning to seem too stiff and one-dimensional for conveying the violence to life-sustaining ecosystems that threaten the world as we have known it.
As delegates from 196 countries attempt, for the 28th time, to reach a global agreement to reduce greenhouse gases, it is time for a new language. The violence of the atmospheric shifts, their deeply uneven impacts and the implications of mass extinctions that are expected at current emission levels, add up to much more than “climate change.” The 28th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates is being held in a region much of which could, according to current climate modeling, be uninhabitable by mid-century. It is time to more sharply focus the attention on those responsible for the violence of the changes underway.
Linguistic theory holds that words enable us to imagine a thing; it’s the words that come first. First there was the “greenhouse effect” — a phenomenon identified as early as 1856 by a largely unheralded woman scientist, Eunice Foote, who reported at the time that glass jars filled with air laced with carbon dioxide heated up much quicker than air without it. More than a century later, at a 1988 congressional hearing, James Hansen, then director of NASA’s Institute for Space Studies, would testify about the links between rising temperatures on Earth and rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere, and point the finger at those responsible: humans. The term “global warming” stuck. Over the 170 years since Foote’s discovery, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has leapt from 290 parts per million to more than 400 ppm today.
By the early 21st century, the effects of all that extra CO2 began to be widely felt. Scientists came to recognize that “warming” sets off a cascade of changes — from shifts in rainfall patterns to volatile swings between rain and drought, and heat and cold, as well as major disruptions to the flow of ocean currents. “Climate change” seemed to encompass more possibilities for derangements of the global ecosystem. And that term is rapidly being outrun by the speed of the changes.
“Climate emergency” was chosen as the Oxford English Dictionary’s “Word of the Year’’ in 2019. That was two years after the Guardianled the world’s newspapers in adopting the term “climate crisis,” to be used interchangeably with “emergency.” The Guardian was far ahead of the curve in evoking the urgency of reporting on the scale of disruptions triggered by greenhouse gases. That tonal change drove home the point that this was not merely a phenomenon to be described, but a tectonic shift demanding ongoing reporting. Nothing, however, can stay ahead of the curve for long; soon enough the curve curves. It’s time for journalists, and everyone else, to consider some additional words and subordinate clauses that evoke the violence of the changes in the present, and identify those accountable for the upending of the status quo now underway in full throttle.
We are living in the climate warp. Yet it is admittedly difficult to clarify in a word or a phrase the vast scope of impacts, which range from the epic to the highly specific. Climate-induced drought was one of the triggers to the Syrian civil war and also fuels the current battle between California and its neighbors over access to the Colorado River. It is helping drive the decimation of farmer livelihoods that is leading to the crush of new immigrants on America’s and Europe’s borders. It contributed to the record-breaking heat that caused the untimely death of a Taylor Swift fan in Rio de Janeiro. Such conflicts and record-breakers are happening hourly somewhere in the world.
“Climate change” describes only the result of fossil fuel-based greenhouse gases. A term like “fossil fueled-destruction” would name the cause as well as the effect.
There are two tools now available to journalists to more clearly show who can be held accountable for the devastating impacts of the changing climate. Major advances in the attribution sciences provide ever-more sensitive understanding of how the overheated atmosphere is disrupting conditions here on Earth. And, critically, ever more precise research into the history of greenhouse gas emissions establishes who can be held accountable.
During this last season of record-breaking summer and fall temperatures, one meteorologist suggested naming the heat waves after those responsible, as in, the “Amoco heatwave,” or the “Exxon hurricane” or the “Chevron drought.” While droughts have been in California’s backbeat for as long as there are historical records, Chevron’s global emissions of some 725 million tons of greenhouse gases including CO2 in 2022 directly contribute to their increasing breadth and duration, as they do to increasing water scarcity pressures in other parts of the world. (The company’s “offsets” of those emissions were found recently to be “mostly junk.”)
We know who is responsible for the overwhelming share of greenhouse gas emissions, and thus for the massive chaos being wrought. They are not hidden behind tax shelters or front companies. They are polluting in plain sight. A new language might incorporate that knowledge: At least one of the 90 companies responsible for practically all greenhouse gas emissions since 1850 is operating a refinery near you, or distributing its greenhouse gas emitting products at a gas station, seaport or airport in the neighborhood.
Cognitive Dissonance Ahead
We consumers also bear some responsibility; we’ve been driving around in those gas-powered cars since James Hansen delivered the news 25 years ago. But we’ve also been driving through a fog of disinformation. The fossil fuel industry hid for decades what it knew about the impacts of its products. Those “deceptions,” California alleges in a historic lawsuit against the top five oil companies in the state, “caused a delayed societal response to global warming. And their misconduct has resulted in tremendous costs to people, property, and natural resources, which continue to unfold each day.”
A recent study of the four largest U.S. and European oil companies (ExxonMobil and Chevron, BP and Shell) in the science journal PLOS One found a widening gap between what they say they are doing in response to the climate crisis and what they continue to do to cause it. The study concludes with a classic of scientific understatement: “[T]he magnitude of investments and actions does not match the discourse.” In the climate lexicon, it is hard to beat the term “greenwashing,” which is no doubt on abundant display in Dubai. But that study and countless others like it are a warning shot for journalists and the public to cast a wary eye on fossil fuel companies’ claim that they are working towards the “energy transition” away from the old dinosaur bones they’ve been mining that are polluting the world.
While COP28 in Dubai is awash in fossil fuel lobbyists, it has also established the world’s first “loss and damage” fund, and will likely be coming up with some actual money to assist the 90% of the world’s population that did not produce the greenhouse gas emissions but are suffering their consequences. A new word may also soon enter the popular lexicon, if it’s not there already: “incremental.” Which may not be revolutionary, but also has real impacts. Every incremental reduction in greenhouse gases, or incremental increase in funding, could mean the difference between a coastal community being inundated or not, of another year saved from a 10th of a degree Celsius increase, of another year spent on a sub-Saharan grassland before it turns to desert. Such increments are the new climate currency.
And for those of us in the fortunate climes, it means more fall seasons that feel like spring, more 65 Fahrenheit winters that should no longer be termed “unseasonably warm.” The writer Stevie Chedid calls it “warning weather.” A disquieting warning in the humid warming air.
The next few days could be the world’s last chance of keeping global heating within safe limits, nations meeting for the Cop28 UN climate summit have been told.
With talks in Dubai now entering their final phase, the world’s governments are still far apart on the central question of whether to phase out fossil fuels.
Dan Jørgensen, Denmark’s climate minister, who has been charged with one of the key roles in forging an agreement among deeply divided governments, said: “We cannot negotiate with nature. The climate cannot compromise. No well meaning words will change a single thing unless we act. This week may be our last opportunity to bring us on course to keeping 1.5C alive.”
Jørgensen, along with the South African minister Barbara Creecy, will chair negotiations on the global stocktake, a process under the 2015 Paris climate agreement that assesses progress – or the lack of it – towards meeting the treaty’s goals of holding global temperature rises “well below” 2C and “pursuing efforts” to keep them to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
It is well established that the world is far off track to stay within those limits, which scientists say are vital to staving off the worst impacts of the climate crisis. Average temperatures for this year are likely to break records and come close to the 1.5C threshold, and on current trends the world will hit 3C of heating, rendering swathes of the planet effectively uninhabitable.
For those reasons, the global stocktake will also contain recommendations to governments for a “course correction”, asking them to change policies and bring in measures that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions drastically. The latest draft was published on Friday, and is currently being examined, but there are likely to be more iterations of it before the end of the talks.
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Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager at Oil Change International, a pressure group, said: “It shows unprecedented momentum for an agreement on phasing out all fossil fuels, owing to the relentless pressure from people and governments that are aligned with the science. The Cop president emphasised again today that 1.5C is his north star – and he must deliver on that promise with a Cop decision to build a fast, fair, full and financed fossil fuel phase-out rooted in equity, and enabled by governments redirecting trillions in finance from fossil fuel industry handouts to the real solution: renewable energy and energy efficiency.”
As well as phasing down fossil fuels, countries are being asked to triple global renewable energy generation and to double energy efficiency. The former is already likely to be met, on current trends, and the latter should save money amid high fossil fuel prices and a cost of living crisis around the world.
Developing countries are also concerned that a target to double the amount of finance they get to help them adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis has also not been met. Stiell called for more progress on this issue. “I don’t want to see diversions and political tactics that hold climate adaptation hostage,” he warned.
Failure to agree a phase-out of fossil fuels at the UN Cop28 climate summit would push the world beyond the crucial 1.5C temperature limit and into climate breakdown, the UK’s former climate chief has warned.
Alok Sharma, who was president of the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, said it was vital that governments made a clear commitment in the next few days to eliminate coal, oil and gas.
“If you’re going to keep 1.5C alive, you’re going to have to have language on a phase-out of fossil fuels,” he told the Observer in an interview. “And you’re going to need to accompany that with a credible implementation plan.”
He urged governments to act. “We are running out of time. The window on 1.5C is closing fast, and unless we are willing to act now, with the urgency that this issue demands, we will lose that 1.5C,” he said. “We are literally in the last chance saloon to save our children’s future.”
More than 190 governments are meeting in Dubai for the final days of the Cop28 summit, which runs until Tuesday, with the question of whether to phase out fossil fuels at the top of the agenda. At least 100 countries are in favour of a phase-out, but some major fossil fuel producers – including Saudi Arabia, China and India – are opposed.
Sharma was credited with keeping 1.5C “alive” against the odds at the Glasgow summit he led in 2021, when he managed to forge a deal among more than 190 squabbling countries that focused on the goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Greenpeace: COP28 must answer the call for a fossil fuel phase out
Dubai, UAE – As COP28 resumes for a second week, negotiators will be faced with answering the call for a commitment to a Fossil Fuel Phase Out in Dubai. Never before have we heard so many voices, coming from so many directions to seize the moment and commit to phasing out oil, coal and gas. And never before have alternative formulations on fossil fuel phase out made it this far into a draft text. But there are still no guarantees on a decision on fossil fuels, so all is in play.
Kaisa Kosonen, Head of the Greenpeace COP28 delegation said: “We are here to make fossil fuels history. By now governments know they can’t leave this summit without an agreement to end fossil fuels, in a fast and fair manner. Now the question is what is the package of solutions, support and cooperation that will get us over the finishing line. It’s clear that developed countries are the ones that need to take the lead here.
The solutions are ready – a fast and fair transition to renewable energy is possible – but it won’t happen fast enough unless we push the fossil fuel industry out of the way.
Business leader says government tax credit for oil and gas ‘extends the life of Canada’s largest industrial sector.’
The government of Alberta, home to the tar sands pictured here, has announced taxpayer funding in the range of $3.5 billion to $5.3 billion for CCS projects. Credit: (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
As world leaders meet in Dubai for the COP28 climate negotiations, federal and provincial governments in Canada are preparing to give an estimated $15.3 billion in new subsidies to oil and gas companies, and other heavy emitters, for expanding the production of fossil fuels, according to climate experts.
Those subsidies are taking the form of massive new tax credits for carbon capture and storage (CCS), which is a technology that companies use to grow their extraction of oil and gas while burying a fraction of their greenhouse gas emissions underground.
“I completely agree that Canada’s tax credit for carbon capture and storage is a subsidy to the oil and gas industry,” Jason MacLean, an adjunct professor who studies climate policy at the University of Saskatchewan, told DeSmog in an email.
The federal Canadian government is close to announcing details on a tax credit that will go to top oil and gas companies like Suncor, Cenovus, and Imperial Oil, along with other major industrial polluters. Policymakers previously estimated the value of these investment tax credits to be $10 billion. The government of Alberta, home to the tar sands, has meanwhile announced taxpayer funding in the range of $3.5 billion to $5.3 billion for CCS projects.
The Pathways Alliance, an industry lobbying and marketing group representing 95 percent of tar sands production, says these tax credits are essential for oil and gas producers to lower their emissions in line with achieving “net-zero emissions” by 2050. Reaching “net-zero” entails stabilizing global temperature rise at 1.5 degrees Celsius, a level beyond which scientists warn the impacts to humankind could be catastrophic.
Yet, in submissions to the federal government, the Pathways Alliance explained that lowering a portion of oil sands emissions via carbon capture will create opportunities for the industry to expand globally — even as other countries move away from fossil fuels. “We believe Canada should seek to increase its market share for responsibly produced, lower emissions energy, even if global market demand, as a whole, begins to decline,” the group said in one submission.
“We need to keep in mind that this is about reducing emissions and not reducing production,” the organization said last year in a separate submission, as revealed by DeSmog.
Representatives of the Pathways Alliance are among the 35 people with ties to the fossil fuel sector who are part of Canada’s official delegation to COP28 this year. At the climate talks, they are pushing for policies supporting global deployment of carbon capture, which will allow companies to keep producing oil as countries get stricter about regulating emissions.
“It is really important for the energy industry in Canada because it extends the life of Canada’s largest industrial sector and maintains our competitiveness over the long term,” Scott Crockatt of the Business Council of Alberta told the Calgary Herald last month.
However, tax credits supporting carbon capture risk accelerating already dangerous levels of global temperature rise, MacLean argues. Even if the technology can fully capture emissions from the production of oil and gas in Canada — which is an expensive and uncertain proposition — the vast majority of climate impacts occur when fossil fuels are burned in places like car and truck engines and house furnaces.
“No possible innovation or improvement to [carbon capture technology] can change the fact that it applies only to the direct and upstream greenhouse gas emissions arising from the production of oil and gas, not the downstream emissions resulting from the combustion of oil and gas, which represent approximately 85 percent of the total emissions,” MacLean told DeSmog.
Allowing oil and gas to expand while relying on carbon capture could result in the release of 86 billion additional tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide between 2020 and 2050, according to a new analysis from the organization Climate Analytics. This “86 billion tonne carbon bomb” could derail efforts to keep global warming from exceeding dangerous thresholds, the group argues.
The Canadian government earlier this year unveiled detailed plans to remove “inefficient” oil and gas subsidies, with Environment and Climate Minister Steven Guilbeault saying at the time that “the simple reality is that it’s no longer free to pollute in Canada.”
But climate campaigners say that promise risks being completely undermined by the new carbon capture tax credits.
The collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, shown here, is one of five tipping points that could be triggered by current levels of warming. (Photo: Patrick Robert/Corbis)
“Averting this crisis—and doing so equitably—must be the core goal of COP28 and ongoing global cooperation,” one expert said.
An earlier version of this article said the sea levels could rise by 656 feet by 2100 if the Antarctic ice sheet started to melt. It has been corrected to reflect the fact that they would rise by 6.6 feet.
Current levels of global heating from the burning of fossil fuels and the destruction of nature risk triggering five tipping points that could throw Earth’s systems further out of balance, with three more at risk of toppling in the next decade.
The Global Tipping Points Report, released Wednesday at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates, argues that policymakers have delayed climate action long enough that “linear incremental change” will no longer be enough to protect ecosystems and communities from the worst impacts of the climate crisis. However, world leaders can still choose to take advantage of positive tipping points to drive transformative change.
“The existence of tipping points means that ‘business as usual’ is now over,” the report authors wrote. “Rapid changes to nature and society are occurring, and more are coming.”
“Crossing these thresholds may trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt changes that could irreversibly determine the fate of essential parts of our Earth system for the coming hundreds or thousands of years.”
The report defines a “tipping point” as “occurring when change in part of a system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a threshold, leading to substantial, widespread, frequently abrupt and often irreversible impact.” A group of more than 200 researchers assessed 26 different potential tipping points in Earth’s systems that could be triggered by the climate crisis.
“Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity,” report leader Tim Lenton of Exeter’s Global Systems Institutesaid in a statement. “They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability, and financial collapse.”
Thank you to everyone involved in producing the first Global Tipping Points Report. We have worked with over 200 authors from over 25 institutions globally. Explore this informative, sobering & inspiring report – https://t.co/49ojesUceQpic.twitter.com/OESQpk26ix
Because current emissions trajectories put the world on track for 1.5°C of warming, this is likely to trigger five tipping points, the report authors found. Those tipping points are the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, the mass die-off of warm-water coral reefs, the thawing of Arctic permafrost, and the collapse of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre circulation.
The melting of just the Antarctic ice sheet, for example, could raise global sea levels by 6.6 feet by 2100, Carbon Brief reported, meaning 480 million people would face yearly coastal flooding. Three more tipping points could be triggered in the 2030s if temperatures rise past 1.5°C. These include the mass death of seagrass meadows, mangroves, and boreal forests, according to The Guardian.
“Crossing these thresholds may trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt changes that could irreversibly determine the fate of essential parts of our Earth system for the coming hundreds or thousands of years,” co-author Sina Loriani of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research told The Guardian.
Contributor Manjana Milkoreit of the University of Oslo said in a statement that “our global governance system is inadequate to deal with the coming threats and implement the solutions urgently required.”
But that doesn’t mean the report authors believe that hope is lost. Rather, they see it as a call to ambitious action at the current U.N. climate talks and beyond.
“Averting this crisis—and doing so equitably—must be the core goal of COP28 and ongoing global cooperation,” Milkoreit said.
One way to do this is to take advantage of positive tipping points.
“Concerted actions can create the enabling conditions for triggering rapid and large-scale transformation,” the report authors wrote. “Human history is flush with examples of abrupt social and technological change. Recent examples include the exponential increases in renewable electricity, the global reach of environmental justice movements, and the accelerating rollout of electric vehicles.”
The report authors made six recommendations based on their findings:
Immediately phasing out fossil fuels and emissions from land use changes like deforestation;
Strengthening plans for adaptation and loss and damage in the face of inevitable tipping points;
Taking tipping points into account in Paris agreement mechanisms like the global stocktake and national climate pledges;
Collaborating to trigger positive tipping points;
Organizing a global summit on tipping points; and
Increasing research on tipping points, including through a special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
“Now is the moment to unleash a cascade of positive tipping points to ensure a safe, just, and sustainable future for humanity,” Lenton said.
