“With ocean temperatures at these levels and El Niño on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall in the coming months.”
A new report released Wednesday shows that surface temperatures of the world’s oceans hit a record for June, sparking fresh warnings of grave “consequences for weather patterns, global climate and marine ecosystems” across the globe.
The analysis by the European Union’s Copernicus Marine Service, and confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), finds that “record global sea surface temperatures” of 21.0° Celsius (69.8° Fahrenheit) in June of 2026 beat the previous record in the same month broken in 2023 and again in 2024.
C3S director Carlo Buontempo warned that the “current conditions” of the oceans “could indicate the beginning of a new phase, leading, once more, to uncharted territory.”
“With ocean temperatures at these levels and El Niño on the horizon, we are likely to see more temperature records fall in the coming months,” Buontempo warned. “That Copernicus Marine data reaches the same conclusion through independent methods speaks to the strength of European science—and to why open, robust data matters now more than ever.”
According to a statement from Copernicus, warmer oceans have wide-ranging impacts on natural systems and human infrastructure, noting that “higher ocean temperatures keep the atmosphere warm for longer, provide extra energy to storms and increase evaporation, thus enhancing the potential for extreme precipitation and flooding. Ocean warming also contributes to sea level rise and ice melt, and stresses marine ecosystems.”
With the onset of a new El Niño cycle—which tends to trigger more pronounced weather events worldwide—the continued increase of ocean temperatures is a serious concern of scientists.
Wednesday’s report on ocean temperatures also arrives as record-breaking heat waves hit both Europe and North America, offering more evidence of the perils of an ever-hotter world that is being pushed to the brink by the burning of fossil fuels and the failure of governments worldwide to finally act against the fossil fuel industry that is driving the crisis.
Surging ocean surface temperatures are “not unexpected,” Michael Meredith, an ocean scientist at the British Antarctic Survey, told CNN in response to the Copernicus report. “But the pace of warming we are now seeing is alarming.”
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A woman observes floodwaters from the Sado River covering a street in Alcacer do Sal, Portugal, amid Storm Leonardo on February 5, 2026. (Photo by Patricia de Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images)
Current models “assume the future will behave like the past, even as we push the climate system into uncharted territory,” said the lead author of a new report that’s based on input from dozens of experts.
In a report published Thursday, UK experts highlighted the “growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment,” while also warning that because the “window for preventing catastrophic warming” is narrowing, ambitious action “cannot await perfected models.”
Various scientific institutions concur that 2025 was among the hottest years on record—and the ongoing failure of governments across the globe, particularly the Trump administration, to enact policies that would significantly cut planet-heating emissions from fossil fuels is pushing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C goals for this century further out of reach.
The new report from the University of Exeter and the think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative, titled Recalibrating Climate Risk, incorporates the expert opinions of 68 climate scientists from Australia, Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
“Our expert elicitation reveals a fundamental disconnect: Climate scientists understand that beyond 2°C, we’re not dealing with manageable economic adjustments,” said Jesse Abrams, lead author and senior impact fellow at Exeter’s Green Futures Solutions, in a statement.
“The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous,” he explained. “Current economic models systematically underestimate climate damages because they can’t capture what matters most—the cascading failures, threshold effects, and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”
Abrams said that “for financial institutions and policymakers relying on these models, this isn’t a technical problem—it’s a fundamental misreading of the risks we face, which current models miss entirely because they assume the future will behave like the past, even as we push the climate system into uncharted territory.”
Communities around the world are already contending with devastating droughts, fires, and storms—and, as another report from researchers at Exeter and the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA) pointed out last month, “above 1.5°C, we enter the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points may be triggered, such as the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, permafrost melt, Amazon dieback, and changes in ocean circulation.”
The IFOA report “warned that when cascading and systemic risks are taken into account, warming of 2°C by 2050 could result in a 25% hit to projected GDP, rising to a halving of projected economic growth between 2070 and 2090,” BusinessGreen editor-in-chief James Murray reported Thursday. “Similarly, a report from consultancy Boston Consulting Group calculated a third of the global economic output could be lost under a scenario where temperatures reach 3°C above preindustrial levels by 2100.”
“The studies stand in stark contrast to some mainstream economic models that have suggested warming of 2°C or more will only reduce projected economic growth by a few percentage points—analyses that have been seized upon by opponents of climate action to argue that decarbonization policies can be dropped or delayed,” Murray noted.
Abrams told the Guardian that some current economic models “are saying we’ll have a 10% GDP loss at between 3°C and 4°C, but the physical climate scientists are saying the economy and society will cease to function as we know it. That’s a big mismatch.”
Laurie Laybourn, a Carbon Tracker board member and executive director of Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, cited another recent report that provides a bleak picture of the current moment and what lies ahead.
“As the UK government’s landmark security assessment of ecosystem collapse showed last week, we are currently living through a paradigm shift in the speed, scale, and severity of risks driven by the climate-nature crisis,” she said. “Yet, beyond this report, there has not been a corresponding paradigm shift in how regulators and government as a whole assess these risks.”
“Instead, they’re routinely underestimated if not missed entirely, meaning many regulations and government action are dangerously out of touch with reality,” she continued. “This threatens disaster when that reality catches up with us. So, it’s critical that policymakers change course, providing clear signals and guidance to markets that these risks should be priced accordingly, rather than downplayed.”
And, as the experts emphasized Thursday, it’s not just policymakers—investors are also still relying on “flawed economic advice,” said Carbon Tracker founder and CEO Mark Campanale. The result is “widespread complacency… with many investors viewing climate scenario analysis as a tick-box disclosure exercise.”
“Until the gap between scientists and economists’ expectations of future climate damages is closed and government bodies act to ensure the integrity of advice upon which investment decisions are made,” he added, “financial institutions will continue to chronically underprice climate risks—meaning that pension funds and taxpayers will remain dangerously exposed.”
Hetal Patel, head of sustainable investment research at Phoenix Group, the UK’s largest and retirement and savings business, said that her firm “supports the report’s call for a more robust and coordinated approach to climate‑risk modeling. Underestimating physical risk doesn’t just distort financial analysis and investment decisions, it underplays the real‑world consequences that will ultimately affect customer outcomes and society as a whole.”
The new report stresses that addressing the “fundamental disconnect between what climate scientists understand about climate impacts and how these impacts are represented in economic models” would require “research investments spanning years,” but rather than simply waiting for better modeling, decision-makers “must proceed on the basis of precautionary risk management, physical climate science, and observed impacts.”
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A series of climate records on temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice have alarmed some scientists who say their speed and timing is unprecedented.
Dangerous heatwaves in Europe could break further records, the UN says.
It is hard to immediately link these events to climate change because weather – and oceans – are so complex.
Studies are under way, but scientists already fear some worst-case scenarios are unfolding.
“I’m not aware of a similar period when all parts of the climate system were in record-breaking or abnormal territory,” Thomas Smith, an environmental geographer at London School of Economics, says.
“The Earth is in uncharted territory” now due to global warming from burning fossil fuels, as well as heat from the first El Niño – a warming natural weather system – since 2018, says Imperial College London climate science lecturer Dr Paulo Ceppi.
‘Unprecedented’ warming indicates climate crisis is taking place before our eyes, experts say
Temperatures in the world’s oceans have broken fresh records, testing new highs for more than a month in an “unprecedented” run that has led to scientists stating the Earth has reached “uncharted territory” in the climate crisis.
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Prof Mike Meredith of the British Antarctic Survey said: “This has got scientists scratching their heads. The fact that it is warming as much as it has been is a real surprise, and very concerning. It could be a short-lived extreme high, or it could be the start of something much more serious.”
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Some scientists fear that the rapid warming could be a sign of the climate crisis progressing at a faster rate than predicted. The oceans have acted as a kind of global buffer to the climate crisis over recent decades, both by absorbing vast amounts of the carbon dioxide that we have poured into the atmosphere, and by storing about 90% of the excess energy and heat this has created, dampening some of the impacts of global heating on land. Some scientists fear we could be reaching the limit of the oceans’ capacity to absorb these excesses.
Meredith said it was still too soon to tell. “The rate [of temperature rise] is stronger than climate models would predict,” he said. “The cause for concern is that if it carries on, this will be well ahead of the climate curve [predicted] for the ocean. But we don’t know yet if that is going to happen.”
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Mark Maslin, professor of Earth system science at University College London, said the climate crisis was taking hold before our eyes. “Climate scientists were shocked by the extreme weather events in 2021,” he said. “Many hoped this was just an extreme year. But they continued into 2022 and now they are occurring in 2023. It seems we have moved to a warmer climate system with frequent extreme climate events and record-breaking temperatures that are the new normal. It is difficult to see how anyone can deny climate change is happening and having devastating effects around the world.”
