Science shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction

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An offshore drilling platform.
Mike Mareen/Shutterstock

Ed Hawkins, University of Reading

The world has just suffered through its warmest month ever recorded. Heatwaves have swept across southern Europe, the US and China, breaking many temperature records in the process.

Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades that this type of event will become more frequent as the world continues to warm. The major culprit behind this is the burning of fossil fuels. So it’s extremely concerning that the UK government has announced its intention to grant hundreds of licences for new North Sea oil and gas extraction.

Although burning fossil fuels to generate power and heat has enabled society to develop and flourish, we are now experiencing the unintended side effects. The carbon dioxide that has been added to the atmosphere is leading to a rise in global temperatures, causing heatwaves to become hotter and downpours more intense. The resulting large-scale disruption and suffering is becoming ever more visible.

This warming will continue, with worsening climatic consequences, until we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to “net zero”. After that, we will still have to live and suffer in a warmer climate for generations. The collective choices we make now will matter in the future.

The small-scale, but high-profile, disruptions caused by Just Stop Oil protesters in the UK are extremely frustrating for many. But their single demand – for no licenses for new UK coal, oil and gas projects – is consistent with the science underpinning the international agreements that the UK has signed.

Temperatures are rising

Since the 1860s, the scientific community has understood that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would warm the climate. And as long ago as 1938, the burning of fossil fuels was linked to the observed rise in both carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. Fast forward to now and global temperatures are warmer, and increasing faster, than at any point in human civilisation.

In response to the overwhelming scientific evidence, the UK and 193 other nations came together in 2015 to ratify the Paris agreement on climate change. One of the agreed goals is to limit global warming to well below 2℃, and even aim for 1.5℃, compared to the pre-industrial era.

However, the latest synthesis report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which all governments explicitly endorsed, paints a stark reality. If we burn all of the fossil fuels that we currently have access to, then global warming will exceed 1.5℃ and may reach 2℃.

To avoid breaching the limits set out by the Paris agreement, some of the coal, oil and gas that we can already extract must remain unburnt. New fossil fuel extraction projects will make it even harder to stop further global warming.

Build up renewable infrastructure

There are other options. The UK government’s official advisers, the Climate Change Committee, have put forward a vision for UK power generation consistent with a net zero future. They say that the UK could provide all of its energy needs by 2050 through a combination of renewables, bioenergy, nuclear, hydrogen, storage and demand management, with some carbon capture and storage for fossil gas-based generation in the meantime.

A family walking dogs on a beach in front of an offshore wind farm.
The UK can achieve energy security without causing additional global warming.
Nigel Jarvis/Shutterstock

If the UK followed the example of China and rapidly increased its investments in renewable energy, then it could achieve energy security without causing additional global warming. China emits the most carbon dioxide of any country in the world. But it is installing more renewable energy generation than the rest of the world combined.

Rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, and not issuing new licenses to extract oil and gas, is the most effective way of minimising future climate-related disruptions. The sooner those with the power to shape our future recognise this, the better.


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Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue ReadingScience shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction

‘The World Burns as Our Dangerous Age of Unreason Fuels the Flames’

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Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London.
Greenpeace activists display a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters on July 27, 2023 in London. (Photo: Handout/Chris J. Ratcliffe for Greenpeace via Getty Images)

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/08/01/the-world-burns-as-our-dangerous-age-of-unreason-fuels-the-flames/

Every political system has its share of charlatans or nutcases who deliberately try to stir up division, embrace conspiracy theories, deny reality or advocate dangerous policies for short-term advantage.  But what do you do when such views are not just held on the political fringe, but are embraced at the heart of government, as is currently happening in the UK? 

There are plenty of immediate challenges facing the Government – inflation, housing shortages, crumbling infrastructure, struggling public services and immigration. Internationally, conflicts rage in many parts of the world, Iran and North Korea continue to pursue nuclear weapons, and democracy itself is under threat from hostile regimes, such as Russia and China. 

But by far the biggest long-term threat, which will only make all of these immediate problems harder to tackle, is climate change.

Climate change is not only already devastating animal and plant life, and exacerbating poor health, famine and poverty in some parts of the world, but also fuelling more conflict within and between states for scarce resources. It is driving migration levels higher and, through melting the polar ice cap, opening up new areas of strategic competition with Russia and China. 

Climate change is not just a long-term survival threat, but an ongoing, immediate, security, political and economic threat. The evidence is all around, plain to see.

According to the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation, July was the hottest month on record, possibly the warmest month humanity has ever experienced. The planet’s temperature has surpassed the crucial threshold of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Swathes of the American South, the Mediterranean and China have endured devastating heatwaves this summer. Only last week, we saw on our TV screens thousands of desperate British tourists fleeing devastating fires on Greek islands. 

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/08/01/the-world-burns-as-our-dangerous-age-of-unreason-fuels-the-flames/

Continue Reading‘The World Burns as Our Dangerous Age of Unreason Fuels the Flames’

Conservatives are the ‘political wing of the fossil fuel industry’ as Sunak invites BP and Shell to Downing Street

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Extinction Rebellion protests at BP
Extinction Rebellion protests at BP. Banner reads big profits before planet

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/conservatives-are-the-political-wing-of-the-fossil-fuel-industry-as-sunak-invites-bp-and-shell-to-downing-street/

New Global Witness analysis shows that government ministers met with fossil fuel companies 54 times between January and March.

London, August 1st, 2023 – Between January and March of this year, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and climate and energy ministers met with fossil fuel companies 54 times, on average more than once every two days, according to new Global Witness analysis of UK government data. This amounts to around 20 per cent of all lobbying meetings they held in that period. (1)

This analysis comes as the Times reports that Sunak will meet with fossil fuel bosses on Wednesday, just two days after announcing that the Government would grant 100 new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea.

Scientists and campaigners have denounced the Government’s plans to U-turn on its climate commitments and “max out” North Sea oil and gas. This would lock the country deeper into a fossil fuel dependency that has left the UK with the highest energy bills in Western Europe.  

(1)    See Transparency International UK’s database on UK government lobbying, available at openaccess.transparency.org.uk.

https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/conservatives-are-the-political-wing-of-the-fossil-fuel-industry-as-sunak-invites-bp-and-shell-to-downing-street/

Continue ReadingConservatives are the ‘political wing of the fossil fuel industry’ as Sunak invites BP and Shell to Downing Street

Rishi Sunak’s family firm signed billion-dollar deal with BP before he announced new oil and gas licences

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https://leftfootforward.org/2023/08/rishi-sunaks-family-firm-signed-billion-dollar-deal-with-bp-before-he-announced-new-oil-and-gas-licences/

Just a coincidence?

The firm founded by Rishi Sunak’s father-in-law signed a billion-dollar deal with BP just months before the Prime Minister gave the go ahead for new oil and gas licences in the North Sea.

It’s since come to light that in May, Infosys, the company founded by Sunak’s father-in-law, bagged a huge deal from the global energy company, BP. Byline Times also reported in July 2022 that: “Sunak and his family are intimately linked to the fossil fuel industry through his wife Akshata Murty’s stake in the transnational IT services firm Infosys, one of whose top clients is oil giant Shell.”

https://leftfootforward.org/2023/08/rishi-sunaks-family-firm-signed-billion-dollar-deal-with-bp-before-he-announced-new-oil-and-gas-licences/

Continue ReadingRishi Sunak’s family firm signed billion-dollar deal with BP before he announced new oil and gas licences

‘Ancient Heat Records Will Be Broken’: Southern Europe Braces for Unprecedented Temperatures

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Original article by JAKE JOHNSON republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). 

“If the disasters we’re seeing this month aren’t enough to shake us out of that torpor, then the chances of our persevering for another hundred and twenty-five thousand years seem remote.”

Southern Europe faced dangerously high temperatures on Sunday amid a continent-wide heatwave that’s expected to get worse in the coming days, potentially shattering longstanding records as the climate crisis rages.

Reuters reported that a “new anticyclone dubbed Charon, who in Greek mythology was the ferryman of the dead, pushed into the region from north Africa on Sunday and could lift temperatures above 45°C (113°F) in parts of Italy early this week,” prompting Italian officials to issue heat advisories for more than a dozen cities on Sunday.

Meteo.it, Italy’s weather news service, said Sunday that the country must “prepare for a severe heat storm that, day after day, will blanket the whole country.”

“In some places,” the service added, “ancient heat records will be broken.”

The fastest-warming continent on the planet, Europe has been facing scorching heat over the past several weeks as scientists warn that the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis is making such heatwaves more likely and increasingly intense. Last summer was Europe’s hottest season on record, and extreme heat killed more than 61,000 people on the continent between late May to early September of 2022.

But the current heatwave appears on track to be even more severe than last summer’s.

As CNN reported Sunday, “Climate scientists at the European Space Agency (ESA) say temperatures could reach 48°C (118.4°F) on the islands of Sicily and Sardinia, ‘potentially the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe.'”

“The ESA warned that Europe’s heat wave has only just begun with Spain, France, Germany, and Poland expected to see extreme weather, just as the continent welcomes what is expected to be a record-breaking number of tourists coming for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic,” the outlet added.

Giulio Betti, an Italian meteorologist and climate expert, told the BBC that “temperatures will reach a peak between 19 and 23 July—not only in Italy but also in Greece, Turkey, and the Balkans.”

“Several local heat records within these areas may well be broken during those days,” Betti added.

Europe’s intensifying heatwave comes in the context of globally high temperatures fueled by El Niño conditions—which the climate crisis has likely made worse and more frequent.

Large swaths of the U.S.Asia, and Africa have experienced sweltering temperatures and other extreme weather—including deadly flooding—in recent weeks, heightening the urgency of coordinated climate action at the upcoming COP28 conference in the United Arab Emirates.

“It was probably the Earth’s hottest week in history earlier this month, following the warmest June on record, and top scientists agree that the planet will get even hotter unless we phase out fossil fuels,” The Guardian‘s Dharna Noor wrote Sunday. “Yet leading energy companies are intent on pushing the world in the opposite direction, expanding fossil fuel production and insisting that there is no alternative. It is evidence that they are motivated not by record warming, but by record profits, experts say.”

In February, after reporting a record-shattering $28 billion in 2022 profits, the London-based oil giant BP announced that it was walking back its emission-reduction goals and planning to produce more fossil fuels than expected.

Shell, which posted $40 billion in profits last year, followed suit last month, ditching its plans to reduce oil production by up to 2% per year.

In a New Yorkercolumn on Sunday, author and climate advocate Bill McKibben noted that the BBC aired an interview with Shell CEO Wael Sawan on July 6, the day scientists believe may have been the hottest on record.

During the interview, Sawan claimed that cutting oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible,” drawing swift backlash.

McKibben noted that Sawan “told the BBC that, while there are not currently any plans, Shell wouldn’t rule out moving its headquarters from the United Kingdom to the United States, where oil companies get higher market prices for their shares.”

“This suggested to him that the U.S. is more supportive of oil and gas companies, and, as he has told investors, he wants to ‘reward our shareholders today and far into the future,'” McKibben added. “That is pretty much the definition of ‘business as usual,’ and it’s precisely what has generated this completely unprecedented heat. If the disasters we’re seeing this month aren’t enough to shake us out of that torpor, then the chances of our persevering for another hundred and twenty-five thousand years seem remote.”

Original article by JAKE JOHNSON republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). 

Continue Reading‘Ancient Heat Records Will Be Broken’: Southern Europe Braces for Unprecedented Temperatures