Report says climate change made rainfall heavier but human factors turned extreme weather into humanitarian disaster
Carbon pollution led to heavier rains and stronger floods in Greece and Libya this month but other human factors were responsible for “turning the extreme weather into a humanitarian disaster”, scientists have said.
Global heating made the levels of rainfall that devastated the Mediterranean in early September up to 50 times more likely in Libya and up to 10 times more likely in Greece, according to a study from World Weather Attribution that used established methods but had not yet been peer-reviewed.
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The amount of rain that fell in Libya was “far outside that of previously recorded events”, the WWA report found. Up to 50% more rain fell than it would have in a world where people had not changed the climate, the report found, though the researchers cautioned that the level of uncertainty was high.
The report found the ongoing conflict and political instability in Libya compounded the effects of the flooding. Dams built in the 1970s had been poorly maintained. They may also have been designed based on short rainfall records that underestimated how strong an extreme storm could be.
The report found that people were at greater risk because the dams stored so much water and failed at night, leaving little time to escape.
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