Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Netanyahu is behind Iran war, not Trump – and that makes peace unlikely

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Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. 

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu will block peace in Iran however he can | Ronen Zvulun / POOL / AFP via Getty Images

Israel’s strikes on Lebanon are a reminder that Netanyahu will do whatever he can to avoid a peace deal with Iran

Within hours of Donald Trump accepting a two-week ceasefire in Iran, walking back on his dire threat that “a whole civilisation will die”, Binyamin Netanyahu did his best to wreck any prospect of peace.

Israel launched an intense bombardment of Beirut and other Lebanese towns and cities, with 100 attacks in the first ten minutes. More than 300 people were killed and more than a thousand wounded, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) also carried out a series of strikes across Gaza, including a precisely targeted armed drone attack on the car of Al Jazeera journalist Mohammed Wishah, the 262nd journalist to be killed by Israel since October 2023.

These massacres serve as a reminder that it was Netanyahu, not Trump, who started the war on Iran and that he continues to pull the strings. For as long as that’s true, the prospects of a lasting peace deal are very low.

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Provided the Strait of Hormuz remains open, Trump can now claim victory – even if that claim is far from the truth – but Netanyahu could not.

Trump wanted to kill Ayatollah Khamenei and cripple the Iranian military, including its nuclear ambitions, so Iran could not threaten its neighbours, especially Israel. Of course, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has not been crippled, but the US president’s self-belief and capacity to lie mean he would likely get away with saying otherwise.

The Israeli PM, however, needed regime change and the irreversible end of theocratic rule. A win over Iran had to be complete, not least to ensure his success at Israel’s general election later in the year.

But the Iranian regime is still intact; the popular Iranian uprising against the theocracy that the US and Israel expected failed to materialise. As such, a peace deal at this point would be a disaster for Netanyahu. If his devastating IDF Lebanon assault fails, he no doubt has more tricks of persuasion up his sleeve.

The extent of Netanyahu’s control of the war agenda, both its origins and its conduct, has been both disguised by Trump’s bombastic attention-seeking and overshadowed by the actions of the IRGC, which has survived intense bombing and developed a clear strategy: attack the eyes and ears of US and Israeli systems.

As Kelly Grieco, a specialist at the Stimson Centre, a Washington-based foreign affairs think tank, puts it, the IRGC is systematically targeting three “distinct functional categories”: radar and communications infrastructure, aerial tankers and airborne early warning.

“Each is a critical enabler of US air operations,” Grieco told Defense News. “That’s not random. That’s a target set derived from an understanding of how US airpower functions and where it is most exposed. The pattern suggests deliberate doctrine, or something close enough to it, not opportunism.”

The IRGC indeed reports that its US targets have included the Bahrain HQ of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet – the US’s primary hub for coordinating its naval operations in the region – a $1.1bn early warning radar in Qatar, and two radar facilities at sites in the UAE. It also successfully attacked the US’s Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, destroying an E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control plane. Two weeks earlier, it hit and damaged five KC-135 Stratotanker refuelling aircraft at the same base.

It is essential to remember that the IRGC was founded in the immediate aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and expanded in size and power during the Iran-Iraq War between 1980 and 1988, when as many as half a million young Iranians died resisting Saddam Hussein’s opportunistic invasion of Iran.

Back then, the IRGC managed to prevent Hussein from annexing Iran’s oil-rich Khuzestan province and gaining total control over the disputed Shatt al-Arab waterway. It has evolved into an ideological entity rooted in the defence of the revolution and is much stronger than Iran’s conventional armed forces.

The IRGC’s strength continues to lie in asymmetric defensive warfare. It has training, arsenals and weapons suited to survival and the wearing down of its much stronger opponents. The success of this approach against the US and Israel is clear, despite the thousands of Iranians killed or maimed and the billions of dollars of damage inflicted across the country.

Taking control of the Strait of Hormuz has been an obvious move, and even the repeated attacks on neighbouring states have a purpose. They may have shocked and angered leaders in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar, but they sent a clear message: we are facing an existential threat from the US and Israel, and you are either with us or against us.

Iran could now continue the conflict with the US and Israel for weeks, if not months, if it so chooses. Despite the claims of the US president, the IRGC is not running out of missiles and armed drones – far from it.

CNN reports that around half of its missile launchers are still intact, as are thousands of one-way attack drones, while armed drones are being produced in backstreet workshops. Even Israel assesses that Iran still has more than 1,000 missiles capable of reaching it, while Hezbollah’s arsenal in Lebanon includes as many as 10,000 shorter-range rockets, according to military briefings cited by Israeli media last weekend.

Given all of this, can the peace talks succeed? Probably not, meaning the US may embark on a huge bombing campaign against the Iranian infrastructure and its very society, to the relief of Netanyahu.

There are still two avenues for hope, though. One is that Trump or the US public comes to realise that Netanyahu has been pulling the strings all along, which would undoubtedly dent the US president’s ego. The other is through the objection of external agents of influence; superpowers such as China or India could make clear that destroying Iranian society is not acceptable.

Extraordinarily, given its small size, the UK is also an external agent with specific influence. A sustained US bombing campaign of Iran requires the mass use of strategic air power – for the US Air Force, that must include the fleet of B-1B Lancer long-range bombers. Only 21 of those are reported to be “mission ready”, 15 of which are at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, each carrying more than 30 tons of a wide range of ordnance.

The loss of Fairford wouldn’t stop the war, but it would seriously hinder Trump’s plans. No other comparable European bases are available; only Fairford has the necessary and complex equipment to house the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and the easy access to a huge munitions depot, which is located at the nearby RAF Welford. In any case, the UK is likely the only European state that would want a US air base like this right now.

A private word from Keir Starmer that the UK may follow Spain and others in closing its airspace to American war planes would have a direct impact. It would certainly help explain Starmer’s unexpected visit this week to the Middle East.

Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. 

Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel's genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism "without qualification". Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
Keir Starmer explains that UK is defensively bombing Iraq in support of Israel's genocidal expansionism. He explains that while his bombs still kill people that they are especially called defensive for the gullible and to be harder to convict of war crimes.
Keir Starmer explains that UK is defensively bombing Iraq in support of Israel’s genocidal expansionism. He explains that while his bombs still kill people that they are especially called defensive for the gullible and to be harder to convict of war crimes.
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Genocide denying UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy says that UK is suspending 30 of 350 arms licences to Israel. He also confirms the UK government’s support for Israel’s Gaza genocide and the UK government and military’s active participation in genocide.
Continue ReadingNetanyahu is behind Iran war, not Trump – and that makes peace unlikely

For the US and Israel, the Iran war is exposing an uncomfortable new world order

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Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.

Is the US’s global economic dominance slipping away as a result of Trump’s gamble in Iran? | Roberto Schmidt/Getty Images

With Tehran closer to achieving its war aims than Washington or Tel Aviv, the global economic balance of power is shifting

After four weeks of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the conflict dynamics have become ever more complex. While none of the three main actors has achieved their aims, Iran has undoubtedly come closest, despite the gigantic clouds of hubris that have characterised Trumpian political output so far.

Ordinary Iranians have suffered appallingly – with towns and cities damaged, thousands killed and injured, food shortages and rigorous control of dissent – but there is little sign of leadership collapse. The heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will now be quietly confident in regime survival; those assassinated have been replaced, and the state remains functional.

For Donald Trump and Binyamin Netanyahu, the unexpected challenge in defeating Tehran is exposing an uncomfortable new reality: the global economic balance of power is shifting away from the North Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific.

Across the board, the IRGC’s decades of preparations have so far worked well against the immense combined military force of Israel and the US. Analysis suggests that most of Iran’s 200 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium-235 survived last year’s US attack and may be hidden in bunkers at Isfahan and at Pickaxe Mountain near Fordow. These hugely valuable stocks are close enough to “weapons-grade” enrichment, and are reportedly too deep to be destroyed by bunker-busting bombs – instead requiring very risky ground assaults.

The Pentagon is already said to be moving weapons and personnel suited to this task towards the warzone, including 2,000 troops from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division trained “to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure key territory and airfields”, but the IRGC has likely widely dispersed its stockpile to mitigate this risk.

Similarly, Tehran has long prepared for a confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz, including amassing a fleet of more than 1,000 fast attack craft, thousands of mines, numerous shore-based anti-ship missiles able to range widely over the Gulf, swarms of drones to saturate anti-missile defences and crewless armed subsurface craft.

The IRGC remains in control and able to fire the ballistic and cruise missiles and armed drones it has aimed variously at Israel and other nearby states in the region. Even if barely one in 20 gets through, that would be enough, symbolism being so important. Take last weekend’s Iranian attack on the Israeli city of Dimona, just five miles from the symbolically important and closely protected Shimon Perez Nuclear Research Centre, the heart of Israel’s own nuclear weapons research and development programme.

To complicate matters further for the US and Israel, Tehran is in the process of acquiring stocks of the Chinese anti-ship missiles that Beijing claims are the most effective weapon of its kind, the 180-mile-range surface-hugging CM-302. China knows all too well that the missile’s use in a successful Iranian attack on a US Navy destroyer, cruiser or even an aircraft carrier would transform its export potential for at least a decade.

If its survival becomes seriously threatened, Iran could force the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of desalination plants and the termination of oil and gas output in the region. Ask why they are hitting otherwise friendly states, and the IRGC will have a ready reply: ‘friendly’ can no longer mean allying in any way with the Americans. It will view the choice as between Muslim Iran and the bully in Washington with its Zionist ally.

That analysis may seem over the top, but anything less is dangerously missing the point.

The US and Israel have got it badly wrong, particularly as the Israeli Defence Force is also struggling on its “second front” in southern Lebanon, where it hoped to occupy and then depopulate the area to terminate Hezbollah as a functioning paramilitary movement. Hezbollah’s vigorous resistance may be one reason for the IDF’s controversial use of white phosphorus artillery shells, and also its practice of flattening entire villages with bulldozers.

Trying to understand what is likely to happen next is hugely complicated, but as I said last week, by far the most sensible action Trump can now take is to declare victory and withdraw, get his forces out of the way as quickly as possible and warn Netanyahu not to make trouble.

Will the US president do so? Highly unlikely, except for just one factor that most analysts are missing. He might be forced to.

The oil-rich Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are immensely wealthy. In terms of sovereign wealth funds alone, we are talking about over $4trn, and there are many other investment strengths to play with. Add a friendly China, and you get nearly twice that.

How that plays out in terms of withdrawal of investments and other multiple private pressures on Washington and Wall Street is not clear, but a new reality is unfolding. The US may still be the world’s leading military power, at least for now – but in this crisis, that’s less relevant than ever.

Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.

Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel's genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism "without qualification". Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don't need people to join wars after they've already won. He's challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.
Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes' concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country's economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
Continue ReadingFor the US and Israel, the Iran war is exposing an uncomfortable new world order