Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to members of his country’s internal spy agency on October 27, 2025 in Jerusalem. (Photo by Benjamin Netanyahu/X)
Israel accused Hamas of breaking the US-brokered ceasefire in a manner in which no one was physically harmed. Gaza officials say Israel has violated the truce 125 times, killing or wounding hundreds of Palestinians.
Following Israel’s 125 reported violations of the October 10 Gaza ceasefire in attacks that have killed or wounded hundreds of Palestinians, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday ordered “powerful strikes” in response to an alleged Hamas breach of the deal in which no one was physically harmed.
Netanyahu’s office said the right-wing prime minister instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to immediately carry out the attacks on the flattened strip, where two years of genocidal war and siege have left at least 248,000 Palestinians dead, maimed, or missing, hundreds of thousands of others starving; and the vast majority of Gaza’s more than 2 million people forcibly displaced.
Israel said the decision to escalate came after IDF invaders—none of whom were reportedly harmed—came under fire in southern Gaza, and amid Israeli anger over alleged Hamas subterfuge regarding the return of bodily remains from an Israeli hostage abducted during the October 7, 2023 attack.
Netanyahu’s announcement also came on the same day that the prime minister appeared in a Jerusalem court to continue his testimony in his ongoing trial for alleged fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. His testimony was cut off three hours early due to unspecified “security developments.” Critics, including relatives of hostages, have accused Netanyahu of unnecessarily prolonging the war in order to further delay his trial. The prime minister denies any wrongdoing.
Hamas said it would respond to Israel’s escalation by delaying the handover of the remaining 13 dead hostages it either holds or is trying to locate. The armed resistance group, which governs Gaza, said Tuesday it had recovered the body of another hostage.
The Gaza Government Media Office responded to Israel’s accusation of Hamas ceasefire violations by noting what it said are 125 incidents in which Israeli forces broke the truce, “resulting in the killing of 94 Palestinians and the injury of more than 344 others.”
Israeli violations of the current ceasefire include several massacres, such as the October 18 bombing of a bus that killed at least 11 members of the Abu Shaaban family, who were trying to return to inspect their home in Gaza City. Among the victims were three women and seven children ages 5-13.
Israel was also accused of nearly 1,000 violations of the previous ceasefire earlier this year—breaches that officials said left at least 116 civilians dead and nearly 500 others wounded.
There has been scant reporting of Israeli ceasefire breaches in the US corporate media. In a glaring act of apparently selective inattention, the Associated Press on Tuesday called Netanyahu’s strike order “a new test for the US-brokered ceasefire.”
Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone object to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities, mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.Genocide denier and Current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quoted that he supports Zionism without qualification. He also confirms that UK air force support has been essential in Israel’s mass-murdering genocide. Includes URLs https://www.declassifieduk.org/keir-starmers-100-spy-flights-over-gaza-in-support-of-israel/ and https://youtu.be/O74hZCKKdpAOrcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.
A satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows Hurricane Melissa churning northwest through the Caribbean on October 27, 2025. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
“Unimaginable violence is hiding in the very small and compact eyewall of Melissa,” said one hurricane specialist.
Hurricane Melissa barreled toward Jamaica on Tuesday as a monstrous Category 5 storm as the island country braced for devastating landfall, humanitarian operations urgently mobilized, and experts voiced horror at the latest climate-fueled weather disaster.
Anne-Claire Fontan, the World Meteorological Organization’s tropical cyclone specialist, told reporters that “a catastrophic situation is expected in Jamaica” and described the hurricane as “the storm of the century” for the island. Melissa is expected to make landfall imminently, bringing extreme flooding, landslides, and other life-threatening impacts.
Tens of thousands of Jamaicans lost power as the slow-moving storm approached the island, bringing torrential rain and maximum sustained winds of 185 mph, with gusts over 220 mph. Storms like Melissa are the reason scientists are pushing to formally add a Category 6 for hurricanes.
“Unimaginable violence is hiding in the very small and compact eyewall of Melissa,” said Greg Postel, hurricane specialist at The Weather Channel. “Nearly continuous lightning will accompany the tornadic wind speeds.”
Melissa tonight has had one of the most powerful satellite presentations you will ever see for an Atlantic Hurricane. Perfect symmetry in all quadrants and satellite estimation techniques being maxed out, with Dvorak analysis yielding 871.1 mbar (recon found the real pressure to… pic.twitter.com/nKKFbv4g7j
The International Federation of the Red Cross said up to 1.5 million people in Jamaica—roughly half the island’s population—are expected to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa, one of the most powerful hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin and the strongest storm on Earth this year.
“We are okay at the moment but bracing ourselves for the worst,” Jamaican climate activist Tracey Edwards said Tuesday. “I’ve grown weary of these threats, and I do not want to face the next hurricane.”
The International Organization for Migration warned that “the risk of flooding, landslides, and widespread damage is extremely high,” meaning that “many people are likely to be displaced from their homes and in urgent need of shelter and relief.”
Melissa’s landfall will come on the same day that United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said the international community has failed to prevent planetary warming from surpassing the key 1.5°C threshold “in the next few years.”
Meteorologist Eric Holthaus wrote on social media that “this is the news I’ve dreaded all my life.”
“Humanity has failed to avoid dangerous climate change,” he wrote. “We have now entered the overshoot era. Our new goal is to prevent as many irreversible tipping points from taking hold as we can.”
Hurricane Melissa will make landfall in Jamaica in a few hours as one of the two strongest hurricanes ever to make landfall anywhere in the Atlantic Basin — on par with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in south Florida.Just horrific. The stuff of nightmares.
Climate experts said Hurricane Melissa bears unmistakable fingerprints of the planetary crisis, which is driven primarily by the burning of fossil fuels.
The warming climate is “clearly making this horrific disaster for Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas even worse,” Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told the New York Times.
Akshay Deoras, a meteorologist at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, told the Associated Press that the Atlantic “is extremely warm right now.”
“And it’s not just the surface,” said Deoras. “The deeper layers of the ocean are also unusually warm, providing a vast reservoir of energy for the storm.”
Amira Odeh, Caribbean campaigner at 350.org, warned in a statement Tuesday that “what is happening in Jamaica is what climate injustice looks like.”
“Every home without electricity, every flooded hospital, every family cut off by the storm is a consequence of political inaction,” said Odeh. “We cannot continue losing Caribbean lives because of the fossil fuel industry’s greed.”
“As world leaders head to COP30, they must understand that every delay, every new fossil fuel project, means more lives lost,” Odeh added. “Jamaica is the latest warning, and Belém must be where we finally see a steer to change courses. The Caribbean is sounding the alarm once again. This time, the world must listen.”
Orcas comment on killer apes destroying the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels.Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
In this handout satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) , Hurricane Melissa strengthens into a Category 4 storm as it churns northwest through the Caribbean Sea captured at 7:40Z on October 26, 2025. Later, Melissa intensified into a Category 5 hurricane as it approached Jamaica. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)
One hurricane historian said the world is “witnessing history on satellite right now” as the people of Jamaica came under evacuation orders and braced for impact of a storm that threatens severe flooding, landslides, and winds of over 200 mph.
The people of Jamaica are making emergency preparations on Monday as Hurricane Melissa intensified overnight, with meteorologists in awe of the scale and shape of the “monster” storm now bearing down on the island nation, already saturated from previous rains and bracing for what could be a major climate-related catastrophe.
In a 5:00 am EDT advisory on Monday, the US National Hurricane Center said Melissa is “now a Category 5 Hurricane” and warned of “destructive winds and storm surge and catastrophic flooding” that would worsen across Jamaica throughout the day and into the night. Landfall is expected Tuesday morning, with devastating consequences across the island nation.
The storm, reports the Weather Channel, “will be one of the most intense, devastating hurricanes on record in Jamaica, with widespread flooding, landslides, and destructive winds.”
Some areas of eastern Jamaica could be inundated with up to 40 inches of rain, more than some areas of the country typically get in a year.
Wind speeds in mountainous areas could be 30% higher that the main storm, meaning potential winds of more than 200 mph.
With Cuba, Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Haiti also within reach of the storm’s impacts, governments across the region are ordering evacuations of the most vulnerable areas and preparing infrastructure for the rescue and recovery operations from the life-threatening destruction almost certain to be unleashed.
“Hurricane Melissa could be one of the most intense and devastating hurricanes on record for Jamaica,” said Katharine Hayhoe, a professor of climate science, “and it’s rapidly becoming a textbook example of how climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous: explosive intensification, slow movement, and massive rainfall.”
In a Monday morning address to the nation, Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged “every Jamaican to prepare, stay indoors during the storm, and comply with evacuation orders. Check on your neighbours, especially the elderly and vulnerable, and continue to pray for our nation’s safety.”
Hurricane Melissa has strengthened to a Category 5 system and is now approximately 100 miles south of Kingston, moving slowly westward.
Based on current projections, all of Jamaica is likely to experience hurricane-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flooding.
Melissa is now the third storm of the 2025 hurricane season to reach Category 5 status, the first time that has happened in the Atlantic since 2005, the year a devastating Hurricane Katrina struck communities along the US Gulf Coast.
Weather experts expressed alarm about the storm’s size, power, and trajectory overnight.
UNBELIEVABLE. ADT estimates put #MELISSA at T8.3 — one of the highest ever observed in the Atlantic. Satellite presentations don’t get much better than this in the Atlantic.
We’re witnessing history on satellite right now. MELISSA likely nearing/at Category 5 status. pic.twitter.com/uFiTsz2PM3
Jordan Smith, a meteorologist with WJHG-TV in Panama City, Florida, said he was “absolutely speechless” after seeing the latest satellite images of the storm.
“This satellite image of Hurricane Melissa needs to be put in meteorology textbooks,” exclaimed Smith. “Please, everyone, send all your prayers and thoughts to the island of Jamaica. Catastrophic impacts are expected on so many levels. Jamaica will be unrecognizable after this.“
I am at a complete loss for words looking at Hurricane Melissa's appearance on satellite imagery right now. Meteorological perfection. pic.twitter.com/vJfuZsiMYT
Michael Ferragamo, a hurricane historian, said the world is “witnessing history on satellite right now,” just before Melissa officially hit Category 5 status.
In remarks to reporters on Sunday night, Desmond Mackenzie, Jamaica’s minister of local government and community development, warned that many Jamaican communities “will not survive” the flooding predicted for the island. McKenzie said all citizens, residents, and visitors to the island should follow the instructions of the government and emergency officials.
“This is not the time for people to become complacent. I believe that we have been giving Jamaicans adequate notice,” he said. “I can only urge Jamaicans to heed the warnings.”
Orcas comment on killer apes destroying the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels.Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.
A flooded village in the low-lying island nation of Kiribati. The UN secretary general says Indigenous communities must be better represented at Cop climate summits. Photograph: Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket/Getty Images
Exclusive: ‘Devastating consequences’ now inevitable but emissions cuts still vital, says António Guterres in sole interview before Cop30
Humanity has failed to limit global heating to 1.5C and must change course immediately, the secretary general of the UN has warned.
In his only interview before next month’s Cop30 climate summit, António Guterres acknowledged it is now “inevitable” that humanity will overshoot the target in the Paris climate agreement, with “devastating consequences” for the world.
He urged the leaders who will gather in the Brazilian rainforest city of Belém to realise that the longer they delay cutting emissions, the greater the danger of passing catastrophic “tipping points” in the Amazon, the Arctic and the oceans.
“Let’s recognise our failure,” he told the Guardian and Amazon-based news organisation Sumaúma. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.
Revealed: Only a third of national climate pledges support ‘transition away from fossil fuels’
Only around a third of the latest country climate pledges submitted to the UN express support for the “transition away from fossil fuels”, according to Carbon Brief analysis.
Several countries even have used their 2035 climate plans to commit to increasing the production or use of fossil fuels, predominately gas, the analysis finds.
The first global stocktake of progress to tackle climate change, agreed at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, calls on all countries to contribute to “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
Countries were meant to explain how they are implementing the outcomes of the global stocktake, including their contribution to transitioning away from fossil fuels, in their latest climate plans.
However, just 23 of the 63 plans submitted to the UN so far express support for “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, or the “phase out” or “phase down” of their use.
In addition, six countries, including Russia, Nigeria and Morocco, use their climate plans to commit to boosting gas production.
Some two-thirds of countries have not yet announced or submitted their pledges, missing not only the UN deadline of 10 February, but also an extension to September.
How to address the lack of sufficient action from countries with their latest plans is billed to be one of the major issues up for debate at the COP30 climate summit in Brazil next month.
Taking stock
In 2015, countries forged the Paris Agreement, the landmark deal to keep temperature rise “well-below” 2C, with “aspirations” to limit global warming to 1.5C of warming by the end of this century.
At the time, countries’ initial pledges were not enough to put the world on track to meet the temperature targets, so they built a “ratchet mechanism” into the Paris Agreement, requiring them to keep increasing their ambition in the following years.
As part of this, countries agreed to submit new, more ambitious plans every five years detailing what they are doing to take action on climate change and adapt to its impacts. These are called “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs).
The Paris Agreement also stated that, following on from these plans, “global stocktakes” should be conducted to assess collective progress in meeting the temperature goal.
The first global stocktake concluded at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, with countries agreeing to a new document setting out how they will respond to a lack of sufficient action to meet the Paris goals.
The two-week talks saw fierce debate about how fossil fuels – the main driver of human-caused climate change – should be referred to in this text.
Activists demonstrating at the 2023 COP28 climate summit in Dubai Credit: Associated Press.
In the end, the stocktake “calls on” all countries to “contribute to” a list of global goals, including “transitioning away from fossil fuels…accelerating action in this critical decade” towards net-zero by 2050.
It was the first time that countries formally acknowledged the need to transition away from fossil fuels in almost 30 years of international climate negotiations.
However, many countries were disappointed that the text did not contain a firmer commitment to phase out all fossil fuels, or even just those with “unabated” emissions.
After Dubai, countries were expected to come up with new NDCs for 2035 that explained how they responded to the priorities set out in the stocktake.
The deadline for submitting the “3.0” NDCs was 10 February 2025, which 95% of countries missed.
On 24 September, the UN convened a climate summit in New York at the sidelines of the UN general assembly in the hope of encouraging more countries to come forward with new NDCs.
China stole the show at the event, announcing a pledge – although not yet formally submitted to the UN – to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035. Several other countries announced new plans, including Russia, Turkey and Bangladesh.
Following the summit, around one-third of countries have announced or submitted their 2035 NDCs.
Fossil-fuel focus
For the analysis, Carbon Brief reviewed each of the NDCs submitted to the UN to determine whether they express support for “transitioning away” from fossil fuels or for phasing them out or “down”.
Countries were considered to have expressed support if they explicitly mentioned the terms “transition” or “phase out/down” in relation to “fossil fuels” when speaking about their own actions to address climate change.
Some countries spoke in general terms about “reducing” or “replacing” fossil fuels, but did not explicitly reference the need to transition away from or phase them down or out. Others spoke about transitioning to a clean or renewable-based economy, but did not explicitly mention fossil fuels.
For the purposes of this analysis, all of these countries were considered to have not expressed support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
In addition, some countries mentioned in their NDCs that the global stocktake calls for a transition away from fossil fuels, but did not say that transitioning away from fossil fuels would be part of their own actions to address climate change.
These countries were also considered to have not expressed support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
Overall, the results show that only one-third of countries express support for the need to transition away from fossil fuels in their NDCs.
Countries used varying language when speaking about the need to transition away from fossil fuels.
Some directly acknowledged that transitioning away from fossil fuels was a key conclusion of the global stocktake and committed to doing this within their own borders.
This includes the UK, Brazil, Canada, Australia, Singapore, Lebanon and Niue. For example, the UK’s NDC states:
“At home and in line with the outcomes of the GST [global stocktake], the UK is committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels to achieve net-zero by 2050.”
Other countries chose to commit to “phasing out” fossil fuels instead of “transitioning away”.
This includes Iceland and Vanuatu. Similarly, Colombia’s NDC says:
“NDC 3.0 reaffirms that the phasing out of fossil fuels is not only a climate imperative, but also an opportunity to strengthen energy sovereignty [and] democratise the benefits of the transition.”
(Colombia and Vanuatu were two of the countries that were disappointed not to see a commitment to phase out fossil fuels included within the global stocktake text.)
Barbados, an island nation known for its strong commitment to climate action, committed in its NDC to “achieve a fossil fuel-free economy” by 2040. In addition, Chile pledged to contribute to the “elimination of fossil fuels”.
In the analysis, these pledges were considered to be support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, despite not using the terms “transition” or “phase out”.
The table below shows the language used by each of the 21 countries that expressed support for transitioning away from fossil fuels, according to the analysis.
Country
Expression of support for ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels’ in NDC
United Kingdom
“At home and in line with the outcomes of the GST, the UK is committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels to achieve net-zero by 2050.”
Brazil
“Brazil will respond to the call to contribute to global efforts under paragraph 28 of decision 1/CMA.5, through the policies and national efforts below, including those under the National Climate Plan. In addition, Brazil would welcome the launching of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, with developed countries taking the lead, on the basis of the best available science, reflecting equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, as per paragraph 6 of decision 1/ CMA.5.”
Canada
“Canada also remains committed to implementing the mitigation outcomes of the Global Stocktake (GST), agreed at COP28…This includes…transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
Lebanon
“Guided by the UAE Consensus reached at COP28, which calls on all Parties to transition away from fossil fuels and strengthen support for adaptation, this NDC reflects Lebanon’s commitment to scaling ambition while addressing national vulnerabilities.”
Iceland
“Iceland’s NDC takes note of the outcome of the global stocktake, according to Decision 1/CMA.5. Specifically, Iceland’s NDC seeks to represent the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5°C pathways by contributing to the phase-out of fossil fuels across sectors and the strategic, fair and ambitious implementation of carbon capture, utilisation and storage, according to para. 28.”
Barbados
“In 2020, the Government of Barbados set the aspirational goal to achieve a fossil fuel-free economy and to reduce GHG emissions across all sectors to as close to zero as possible by 2030. In light of the significant challenges faced by the country, the aspirational goal is currently expected to be reached around 2040.”
Chile
“In 2023, within the framework of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP) in Dubai, the report on the First Global Stocktake, designed within the framework of the Paris Agreement to assess the global response to the climate crisis, was presented…Among its main conclusions, the agreement to move towards the elimination of fossil fuels in energy systems…stands out. All these conclusions are addressed in this NDC, demonstrating Chile’s commitment to climate ambition.”
Vanuatu
“Moving beyond our current net-zero status, this NDC recommits Vanuatu to rapidly phasing out fossil fuels, deeply decarbonising and transitioning completely to a circular economy.”
Pakistan
“Natural gas and furnace oil are set to decline, with net reductions of 2,147 MW and 430 MW respectively, as per IGCEP 2025-2035, signaling a gradual phase down of fossil fuels in Pakistan’s capacity mix.”
Colombia
“NDC 3.0 reaffirms that the phasing out of fossil fuels is not only a climate imperative, but also an opportunity to strengthen energy sovereignty, democratize the benefits of the transition, and consolidate Colombia as a Power of Life.”
Niue
Niue understands the need to transition from fossil fuel-based electricity generation to renewable energy to reduce the GHG emissions footprint and ensure energy security.”
Singapore
“Singapore is contributing to the first global stocktake’s call to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. We are also supporting efforts to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.”
Australia
“The global stocktake recognised the global direction of travel in its consensus call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems and to phase-down unabated coal-fired power. In Australia, our transition is underway.”
United Arab Emirates
“The GST Outcome at COP28, together with the broader UAE Consensus and the work under the Troika, has provided a strong impetus for the UAE NDC 3.0. The outcome of the first GST notably emphasizes the need to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, urging parties to adopt ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets.”
Japan
“The items listed in decision 1/CMA.5 have been incorporated to the greatest extent possible into the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, which is a comprehensive implementation plan for achieving Japan’s NDC.”
Bolivia
“The persistent dependence on fossil fuels, both for electricity generation and transportation, not only contributes to national greenhouse gas emissions, but also exposes the country to volatility in international oil and gas prices, highlighting the urgency of a fair, sovereign, and resilient energy transition toward renewable sources.”
Nicaragua
“The transition to an energy matrix less dependent on fossil fuels is a fundamental priority of the government.”
Marshall Islands
“This NDC also demonstrates our drive, our achievements, and the challenges we face. In particular, we detail our domestic actions to contribute to the collective commitments made following the global stocktake, including the tripling of renewable energy, doubling of energy efficiency and removal of fossil fuel subsidies, all in pursuit of accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels this decade.”
Cambodia
“This transition will be implemented in two key phases: 70% renewable energy by 2030, followed by a further increase to 72% by 2035, ensuring a gradual yet decisive shift away from fossil fuel dependency in the power sector.”
Bangladesh
“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner [is] central to Bangladesh’s contribution to the global response to climate change. The NDC 3.0 commitments are designed not only to reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions but also to accelerate the just energy transition, promote zero- and low-emission technologies, and enhance climate resilience.”
Tuvalu
“We are steadfast in our transition to 100% renewable energy.”
Sri Lanka
“With abundant solar, wind, and hydropower resources, Sri Lanka has a clear opportunity and expressed ambitious commitments to move towards total electricity generation based on renewable sources, to transition away from fossil fuels toward cleaner, decentralised energy systems.”
Nepal
Nepal’s NDC is “informed” by Decision 1/CMA.5 Outcome of the first GST, “such as 1.5C decarbonisation pathway…just transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems.”
Separately, the thinktank E3G has examined how countries speak about their policies for reducing fossil fuels in their NDCs.
It found that more than two-thirds of countries include “explicit references to displacing fossil fuels in their electricity mix”.
However, E3G also noted that “specific language on winding down the production of coal, oil, and fossil gas is lacking in almost all NDCs”.
‘Transitional fuel’
Carbon Brief also examined each of the submitted NDCs to see how countries speak about new fossil-fuel production and use within their borders.
Six of the 64 nations – around 10% – used their NDCs to pledge to increase fossil-fuel production or use, predominately gas, claiming this could contribute to their efforts to lower emissions.
In its NDC, the world’s fourth biggest emitter, Russia, says it “emphasises the importance of implementing a just transition to low-emission development models using all available solutions”, including “gas as a transition fuel and technologies for reducing emissions in coal-fired power generation”.
During negotiations on the stocktake text in 2023, Russia had pushed successfully to include a controversial paragraph that says “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security”, Climate Home News reported.
The publication noted that, after this text was agreed, Antigua and Barbuda negotiator Diann Black-Layne called it a “dangerous loophole”, adding that gas is also a fossil fuel that “we need to transition away from”.
Several African nations, including Nigeria, Morocco, Mauritius and Zimbabwe, also pledged to boost the production or use of gas as part of their “climate” actions.
Nigeria, Africa’s second biggest emitter, says that the country “relies heavily on the oil and gas industry” and that the sector will be “called upon to further grow while adopting sustainability measures”. It continues:
“Natural gas use will be boosted, serving as a key transition fuel in Nigeria’s move towards increased adoption of renewable energy for meeting its net-zero emissions target.”
The world’s energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency, recently reemphasised that there would be no need for any new fossil-fuel production, if the world cuts emissions in line with limiting global warming to 1.5C.
It comes after the world’s top court this year concluded that new fossil-fuel production, consumption, the granting of exploration licences or the provision of subsidies “may constitute an internationally wrongful act”, leaving the states involved vulnerable to legal action.
COP30 calls
After nearly all nations missed the deadline for submitting NDCs in February, UN climate chief Simon Stiell asked laggard countries to do so by the end of September.
This will allow their plans to be included in a new report synthesising the level of progress contained within the latest NDCs, which is due to be published on 24 October. (Less than a third of nations met Stiell’s request.)
The report will come just before COP30, which will take place from 10-21 November in the rainforest Brazilian city of Belém.
Whether and how to respond to the insufficient progress contained within these NDCs, including whether to call for increased ambition in line with the outcomes of the first global stocktake, are among the key issues up for debate at the summit.
The Brazilian presidency is pushing for a formal COP decision on any “disappoint[ment]” over NDCs falling short, collectively, of what is needed to avoid dangerous global warming.
However, other countries would need to agree to this proposal at the summit.
Orcas comment on killer apes destroying the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels.Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
