Original article by Stephen Prager republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

“The political rules of the last almost half-century are changing before our eyes,” said Jewish Currents editor Peter Beinart.

As voters sour on Israel after over two years of genocide in Gaza, an internal poll suggests that backing from the pro-Israel lobby may be a liability for Democrats seeking to win their primaries.

The Democratic polling firm Upswing Strategies canvassed 850 Democratic voters in congressional districts across Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The survey asked voters for some of the most competitive Democratic primaries in the 2026 election cycle a number of questions about their sympathies in the Israel-Palestine conflict.

It also zeroed in on their feelings about pro-Israel lobbying groups, including the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), which supported 152 Democrats who received more than $28 million in total during the 2024 election and had a role in toppling several House progressives, including then-Reps. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

The poll found that nearly half of voters in these competitive districts (48%) agreed with the statement that they “could never support” a candidate for Congress that was funded by AIPAC or the pro-Israel lobby more generally. Over a quarter of voters, 28%, said they strongly felt they could never support a candidate backed by AIPAC.

Just 40% said they “could see” themselves supporting a candidate backed by AIPAC, “especially if I agreed with them on most other issues,” but just 10% expressed that belief strongly, while the other 30% said they only agreed with it somewhat.

The poll was posted to social media by Matthew Eadie, a reporter for the Illinois news outlet Evanston Now,on Saturday. He said that since it was conducted in early September, its results have been “circulating among Democrats in over a half-dozen competitive primaries in mostly Illinois.”

With Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin’s seat coming open in 2026, several current Illinois congresspeople have signaled their intent to run, leaving their own House seats up for grabs. Among them are some AIPAC favorites, including Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), who received over $63,000 from pro-Israel groups during the 2023-24 election cycle and nearly $269,000 since his first campaign in 2016; and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.), who received over $17,000 last cycle and nearly $109,000 since her first campaign in 2012.

Pro-Israel groups will also likely seek to hold off yet another primary challenge to Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) from the progressive community organizer Kina Collins, who has run against him during the last three cycles. During the 2024 election, an AIPAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, spent approximately half a million dollars running ads attacking Collins, who had described Israel’s actions against Palestinians, including its blockade of food and water supplies, as “war crimes.”

Rep. Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.), a progressive who has referred to Israel’s actions as a “genocide” and sponsored a bill to halt military aid to the nation, was targeted with more than $157,000 worth of digital ads and mailers in 2022 by the AIPAC ally Democratic Majority for Israel. However, in 2024, while blitzing other races, the groups held off on targeting Ramirez, whose support was deemed to be too strong.

Other districts in the survey included that of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), who has weathered multiple challenges from AIPAC, which likewise held off in 2024 due to her popularity.

On the flip side, it also included the district of one of Israel’s strongest soldiers, the self-described “centrist” Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Pa.), whom AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups armed with more than $5.4 million in 2024 to take down the progressive Jewish incumbent Rep. Andy Levin, whom AIPAC’s former president called “the most corrosive member of Congress to the US-Israel relationship.”

While the poll’s results were not broken down by congressional district, they do show that in a political era defined by the Gaza genocide, the Israel lobby’s influence within the party may be on the wane. Last week, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), a centrist challenger to the progressive Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), seemed to exemplify this when he pledged to return the money he’d received from AIPAC, saying, “I’m a friend of Israel, but not of its current government, and AIPAC’s mission is to back that government.”

This wane is partially due to the collapse of support for Israel among Democrats over the past two years. Affirming what past polls have shown, the Upswing poll found that Democratic voters overwhelmingly have a wildly positive view of not only Palestine, but international organizations that have shown support to Palestinians like the United Nations and Doctors Without Borders, while having overwhelmingly negative views of Israel and especially its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

And while it was less salient to voters than holding President Donald Trump accountable and lowering the cost of living, 53% of voters in the poll said “putting pressure on the Israeli government to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza” was a 10 out of 10 issue on the scale of importance for Democrats to focus on, while 72% said it was at least an 8 out of 10.

Peter Beinart, the editor-at-large of the progressive magazine Jewish Currents, said, “It’s astonishing how quickly the politics are moving.”

Democratic politicians, he continued, now “don’t fear AIPAC. They fear being associated with AIPAC. The political rules of the last almost half-century are changing before our eyes.”

Original article by Stephen Prager republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).