Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. 

The party may have a 30-point lead in the polls, but its lack of real offering to voters will soon cause problems

It’s widely agreed that England and Wales’ local election results were terrible for the Conservative Party, which lost 474 councillors, and not particularly good for the Labour Party, which gained only 186.

But many commentators still miss the current mood among Labour supporters. The party’s 30-point lead in a new YouGov poll has been extensively covered, but not the fact that its should-be supporters are hardly rejoicing at the news.

Because while many voters have distaste verging on outright anger at Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives, and would certainly take pleasure in seeing them ousted from government, they have little enthusiasm for the Labour alternative.

Analysis of the local elections’ voting figures suggests Labour is headed for a much smaller lead at the general election than polls suggest; likely one sufficient to ensure it ends up in government but not anything like a landslide. In these circumstances, the tensions within the party, and how they are reflected in the attitudes of its voters, become significant – and may cause Keir Starmer serious problems in office.

Much of the discontent stems from suspicions that under Starmer, Labour is now on the centre-right and will not deliver the major reforms needed to help the millions of ordinary people struggling to make ends meet. Even in one of the few areas where Starmer previously seemed to offer hope, workers’ rights, there are suggestions that his policy will soon be watered down.

This sense that the party will continue the current government’s status quo has only been strengthened by Labour welcoming two Tory defectors into its fold in recent weeks. One of them, Natalie Elphicke, is a determinedly right-wing politician, whom many would have said was on the far right of her previous party. Some very angry Labour MPs have contrasted her official reception with the ongoing exclusion of Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn from the parliamentary party.

And while Labour may claim to be the party of fiscal fairness, there is little faith in it getting truly serious about controlling tax avoidance and evasion, and even less about wholesale tax reform. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has also already ruled out a wealth tax, despite the richest 1% of Britons holding more wealth than 70% of people in the UK.

Starmer is also keen to play tough on defence matters, presenting Labour as strong on military spending, and determined to maintain a vastly expensive nuclear programme and Britain’s vain attempt to be a world power.

This will likely be met with opposition from many of the party’s supporters, who have objected to the UK’s involvement in numerous failed wars in the past 25 years – including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Libya and now Gaza.

Whatever happens in Gaza, Labour will also be left with a legacy of deep mistrust over its failure to speak up for Palestinians. The ‘Gaza rebellions’ at the local elections earlier this month, which contributed significantly to the party failing to pick up the Tories’ lost votes, were hurried affairs organised late in the day. If organisers plan earlier for the general election, they may well have a much greater impact.

Then there is the issue of the climate crisis, which looms increasingly large, especially among younger voters. Labour’s U-turn on its £28bn pledge to invest in a rapid period of decarbonisation has struck a discordant note, and many find it difficult to accept claims by shadow climate change and net zero secretary Ed Miliband that the party is still on track to make Britain a “clean energy superpower”.

Labour may also soon have a problem among its own ranks. Many of the party’s 30 or so socialist-leaning MPs are keeping their heads down in the run-up to the general election for fear of suspension and deselection. This will change once the election is called. Some incoming new radicals may also be elected – who knows, even the odd socialist or two might slip through. It is certainly reasonable to think that Starmer, whether heading for a majority or minority Labour government, will have up to 40 MPs with a radical bent.

Where they will become significant will be when Labour runs into serious trouble a year or so into the new Parliament, when the multitude of toxic legacies left by 14 years of Conservative government emerge. At that point, if all Labour can offer on most policy areas is little more than modest change, British politics will become far more intens

Much of the discontent stems from suspicions that under Starmer, Labour is now on the centre-right and will not deliver the major reforms needed to help the millions of ordinary people struggling to make ends meet. Even in one of the few areas where Starmer previously seemed to offer hope, workers’ rights, there are suggestions that his policy will soon be watered down.

This sense that the party will continue the current government’s status quo has only been strengthened by Labour welcoming two Tory defectors into its fold in recent weeks. One of them, Natalie Elphicke, is a determinedly right-wing politician, whom many would have said was on the far right of her previous party. Some very angry Labour MPs have contrasted her official reception with the ongoing exclusion of Diane Abbott and Jeremy Corbyn from the parliamentary party.

And while Labour may claim to be the party of fiscal fairness, there is little faith in it getting truly serious about controlling tax avoidance and evasion, and even less about wholesale tax reform. Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves has also already ruled out a wealth tax, despite the richest 1% of Britons holding more wealth than 70% of people in the UK.

Starmer is also keen to play tough on defence matters, presenting Labour as strong on military spending, and determined to maintain a vastly expensive nuclear programme and Britain’s vain attempt to be a world power.

This will likely be met with opposition from many of the party’s supporters, who have objected to the UK’s involvement in numerous failed wars in the past 25 years – including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Libya and now Gaza.

Whatever happens in Gaza, Labour will also be left with a legacy of deep mistrust over its failure to speak up for Palestinians. The ‘Gaza rebellions’ at the local elections earlier this month, which contributed significantly to the party failing to pick up the Tories’ lost votes, were hurried affairs organised late in the day. If organisers plan earlier for the general election, they may well have a much greater impact.

Then there is the issue of the climate crisis, which looms increasingly large, especially among younger voters. Labour’s U-turn on its £28bn pledge to invest in a rapid period of decarbonisation has struck a discordant note, and many find it difficult to accept claims by shadow climate change and net zero secretary Ed Miliband that the party is still on track to make Britain a “clean energy superpower”.

Labour may also soon have a problem among its own ranks. Many of the party’s 30 or so socialist-leaning MPs are keeping their heads down in the run-up to the general election for fear of suspension and deselection. This will change once the election is called. Some incoming new radicals may also be elected – who knows, even the odd socialist or two might slip through. It is certainly reasonable to think that Starmer, whether heading for a majority or minority Labour government, will have up to 40 MPs with a radical bent.

Where they will become significant will be when Labour runs into serious trouble a year or so into the new Parliament, when the multitude of toxic legacies left by 14 years of Conservative government emerge. At that point, if all Labour can offer on most policy areas is little more than modest change, British politics will become far more intense – with a chance of some truly progressive thinking at last coming to the fore.

 Original article by Paul Rogers republished from OpenDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.