This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

by Ranjan Solomon

The United States today finds itself ensnared in a war it cannot win, yet cannot leave. What appears, at first glance, as a familiar display of military dominance in West Asia is, in fact, a deeper crisis of strategy, legitimacy, and control. The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has exposed a paradox at the heart of American power: the more force it projects, the fewer viable options it retains. Nowhere is this contradiction more sharply visible than in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow passage that has become the fulcrum of a widening geopolitical confrontation.

At the core of this crisis lies a strategic bind. The United States cannot credibly exit the conflict without first securing what it can claim as a “victory.” Yet, in this theatre, victory is narrowly defined: ensuring unimpeded passage through the Strait of Hormuz. That objective, however, is precisely what Iran is positioned to deny. Geography, in this case, has become a weapon. Iran does not need to defeat the United States militarily; it merely needs to retain the capacity to disrupt, threaten, or selectively control access to the Strait. In doing so, it transforms a superpower’s overwhelming military advantage into a liability.

This is the cruel logic of asymmetry. For Washington to guarantee maritime security in the Strait, it would have to escalate—potentially by occupying strategic islands at its mouth, intensifying naval deployments, or even targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure. Such moves would not only expand the war but also risk drawing the United States into a deeper and more protracted conflict. Exit, paradoxically, demands escalation. And escalation offers no guarantee of resolution.

This is the cruel logic of asymmetry. For Washington to guarantee maritime security in the Strait, it would have to escalate—potentially by occupying strategic islands at its mouth, intensifying naval deployments, or even targeting Iranian coastal infrastructure.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be overstated. A significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes through this narrow corridor. Control over it is not simply about trade; it is about leverage over the global economy. Iran’s proximity to the Strait gives it a natural advantage—one that no amount of distant military power can easily neutralize. Even limited disruption can trigger global economic tremors, placing pressure not only on the United States but on its allies and adversaries alike.

War Beyond the Battlefield: How the Iran Conflict Is Reshaping Global Power and the World Economy

Compounding this dilemma is the collapse of allied consensus. Unlike previous conflicts where the United States rallied a coalition under the banner of collective security or shared values, this war appears strikingly unilateral. Key allies have refrained from offering meaningful support. The reasons are not difficult to discern. This was a war initiated without broad consultation, lacking a clear legal or moral mandate, and unfolding against the backdrop of widespread global disillusionment with Western interventions.

The absence of allies is not merely a logistical setback; it is a profound indicator of declining legitimacy. Military power, in the modern world, is sustained as much by perception as by capability. Without diplomatic backing, even the most formidable force appears isolated. The United States, once the architect of multilateral action, now finds itself acting alone, its calls for support met with hesitation or silence.

This isolation intersects with another structural reality: the conflict is not binary. As James M. Dorsey astutely observes, “it takes three to tango.” The United States is not the sole protagonist. Israel and Iran are independent actors with their own strategic imperatives, neither of which aligns neatly with American objectives.

The absence of allies is not merely a logistical setback; it is a profound indicator of declining legitimacy. Military power, in the modern world, is sustained as much by perception as by capability.

Israel, in particular, has undergone a significant shift in doctrine. Since the events of 2023, its strategy appears to have moved beyond deterrence toward the systematic weakening—if not outright incapacitation—of its regional adversaries. This includes not only Iran but also actors in Lebanon and Syria. The goal is no longer stability through balance, but dominance through disruption. Such a strategy inherently resists de-escalation. For Israel, a prolonged conflict may serve broader regional ambitions.

Iran, for its part, views the confrontation through the lens of survival and resistance. Despite suffering significant losses, it has demonstrated resilience and internal cohesion. Its strategy does not depend on outright victory but on endurance. By sustaining pressure—whether through control of the Strait, targeted strikes, or regional proxies—it ensures that the conflict remains costly and unresolved.

Caught between these two actors, the United States finds itself in a reactive posture. Even a partial withdrawal would not guarantee disengagement. Continued hostilities between Israel and Iran could easily draw Washington back into the conflict, whether through strategic commitments, regional security concerns, or the imperative to maintain credibility.

Adding another layer of complexity is the parallel war being waged in the realm of information. Modern conflicts are no longer confined to battlefields; they unfold equally in the domain of perception. Narratives, legitimacy, and global opinion play decisive roles. In this arena, the United States and Israel face an increasingly uphill battle.

The conduct of the war in Gaza has already inflicted significant damage on Israel’s global standing. Images of devastation, civilian casualties, and humanitarian crises have circulated widely, shaping international opinion in ways that military victories cannot easily counterbalance. In this context, Iran’s information strategy need not be sophisticated; it merely needs to amplify existing doubts and criticisms.

This erosion of narrative control has tangible consequences. It weakens diplomatic support, fuels domestic dissent, and complicates efforts to justify continued engagement. War, in the twenty-first century, is as much about legitimacy as it is about firepower. And legitimacy, once lost, is difficult to reclaim.

The notion that the conflict can be resolved through decisive military action is, therefore, increasingly untenable. Even the targeted elimination of senior Iranian officials or the degradation of military infrastructure does not fundamentally alter the dynamics at play. This is not a war that can be won through attrition alone. It is, as Dorsey suggests, a contest of endurance—a test of which side can “hold its breath” the longest.

Such wars tend to favour those with less to lose and more to prove. For Iran, survival itself constitutes victory. For the United States, anything short of clear dominance risks being perceived as defeat. This asymmetry in expectations further entrenches the strategic bind.

Meanwhile, domestic politics within the United States are beginning to reflect the strain. Segments of the political spectrum that once supported assertive foreign policy are now expressing dissent. Voices such as Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens have questioned the rationale for continued involvement, highlighting fractures within the broader support base. Public opinion, too, appears increasingly wary of another prolonged and costly conflict.

When diplomacy nears the threshold: What two wars in nine months reveal about how the Iran war will end

These internal divisions are not incidental; they are symptomatic of a deeper fatigue. After decades of military engagements in the Middle East, the American public is less inclined to accept the human and economic costs of war, particularly when the objectives remain obscure or shifting. In a midterm election context, such sentiments carry significant political weight, further constraining the administration’s options.

What emerges, then, is a picture of a superpower caught in a narrowing corridor. To escalate is to risk deeper entanglement and unforeseen consequences. To withdraw is to concede strategic ground and undermine credibility. Neither path offers a clear or satisfactory resolution.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is thus emblematic of a broader transformation in global power dynamics. It underscores the limits of unilateral action in an increasingly multipolar world, where regional actors possess both the will and the means to resist external dominance. It reveals the fragility of alliances built on expediency rather than shared purpose. And it highlights the enduring importance of legitimacy as a foundation of effective power.

The notion that the conflict can be resolved through decisive military action is, therefore, increasingly untenable. Even the targeted elimination of senior Iranian officials or the degradation of military infrastructure does not fundamentally alter the dynamics at play.

For the United States, this moment demands a reckoning. The instruments of power—military, economic, and diplomatic—remain formidable. But their efficacy is contingent upon context, perception, and restraint. In the absence of these, power becomes self-defeating, generating the very constraints it seeks to overcome.

The Strait of Hormuz, narrow and contested, has become more than a strategic chokepoint. It is a mirror reflecting the contradictions of contemporary geopolitics. It shows an empire struggling to reconcile its ambitions with its limitations, its capabilities with its credibility.

In the end, the question is not whether the United States can control the Strait, but whether it can redefine what control means in a world where dominance no longer guarantees compliance. Until that question is answered, the path forward will remain fraught—an uneasy passage through turbulent waters, with no clear exit in sight.Top of FormBottom of Form

This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

[dizzy: Uncertain whether that “Top of FormBottom of Form” belongs. It appears simultaneously quite surreal and almost belonging. I am supposed to copy unaltered according to the licence so it is as it is presented to me. A powerful, well-argued and well-presented article that can be republished under its creative commons licence.)

• Switzerland condemns ‘extremist settler’ violence in West Bank, urges Israel to act
• Majority of US voters oppose Iran war, say it benefits Israel more: Poll
• Power without exit – America’s strategic trap in the Strait of Hormuz
• Germany withdraws legal backing for Israel in ICJ genocide case
• Global attention must not lose sight of Palestine
• War Beyond the Battlefield: How the Iran Conflict Is Reshaping Global Power and the World Economy
• US intelligence undercuts Trump’s main justification for war with Iran
• UN experts warn Israel’s Gaza aid restrictions worsening crisis for women, girls
• USS Gerald Ford withdrawn to Greece after major onboard fire
• Hamas says displacement in West Bank reflects forced transfer policy
• Qatar condemns Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field
• Israel reopens Rafah crossing for limited Palestinian movement after 20-day closure
• US Embassy in Riyadh urges Americans to leave Saudi Arabia ‘if you can do so safely’
• Israeli forces demolish structures, water well south of Hebron amid rising attacks