This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 

by Dr Ramzy Baroud  RamzyBaroud

Iran is pursuing a multi-layered strategy—military, economic, political, and diplomatic—to raise the cost of war and prevent regime change.

Iran’s strategy in the current war

As the war on Iran continues to expand across multiple fronts, Tehran appears to be pursuing a complex strategy that combines military escalation, economic leverage, domestic mobilization, and diplomatic signaling.

Rather than relying on what Iranian officials once described as “strategic patience,” the current approach suggests that Iran is attempting to fundamentally reshape the battlefield by increasing the costs of the war for the United States, Israel, and any regional actors that choose to participate.

The strategy appears to rest on several interconnected pillars designed not only to respond to military attacks but also to prevent the broader objective that Iranian leaders believe lies behind the war: regime change.

Overwhelming the battlefield

The most visible element of Iran’s strategy has been its attempt to expand the battlefield geographically and operationally.

Rather than focusing solely on Israeli territory, Iran has targeted a wide range of US and allied assets across the region. These include military bases, intelligence facilities, radar systems, and logistical infrastructure that support American operations.

The aim appears to be twofold.

First,

Iranian strikes are intended to impose a form of “strategic blindness” on opposing forces by degrading radar systems, surveillance networks, and early-warning capabilities.

Such attacks reduce the ability of the United States and Israel to monitor Iranian movements and respond effectively to missile launches or other military operations.

Second, by targeting US bases in multiple countries across the region, Iran is sending a clear message that the conflict will not remain geographically contained.

In practical terms, this means that any country hosting American military facilities risks becoming part of the battlefield.

Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized that these strikes are directed at US military infrastructure rather than the sovereignty of host nations. Nevertheless, the message is unmistakable: if regional territory is used to launch attacks on Iran, that territory may also become a site of retaliation.

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This approach reflects a major shift away from Iran’s previous policy of measured responses and limited escalation.

Instead, Tehran appears to be pursuing a strategy designed to overwhelm the enemy on multiple fronts simultaneously, raising the political and military cost of continuing the war.

Economic warfare

Alongside its military operations, Iran is also leveraging one of the most powerful tools at its disposal: the geography of global energy supply.

The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes—has effectively become a war zone. Although Iran has not formally declared a blockade, the conditions created by the conflict have produced a functional shutdown of the waterway.

Missile exchanges, naval deployments, maritime attacks, and the growing threat environment have drastically reduced the willingness of commercial shipping companies to operate in the area. Insurance costs for tankers have surged, while several shipping operators have suspended or rerouted voyages altogether.

In practice, this means that the strait is not closed by decree but by the realities of war.

This distinction is important. Iran does not need to announce a blockade to achieve the strategic effects of one. The instability itself disrupts energy flows, drives oil prices upward, and injects uncertainty into global markets.

The consequences are felt far beyond the Gulf.

European economies—already weakened by energy shocks following the war in Ukraine—are particularly vulnerable to renewed volatility in oil and gas markets. Rising shipping costs, supply disruptions, and market speculation all compound the economic pressure.

For Tehran, this dynamic serves as a powerful form of indirect leverage.

The longer the war continues, the greater the economic consequences for the global system that underpins Western power. In this sense, the Strait of Hormuz functions not merely as a geographic chokepoint but as a strategic pressure valve capable of transmitting the costs of the conflict far beyond the battlefield.

Domestic cohesion

Another key pillar of Iran’s strategy lies within the country itself.

Western analysts had widely speculated that sustained military pressure—or a leadership decapitation strategy—could produce internal instability or even trigger a political crisis within Iran.

The killing of senior political and military figures, including high-ranking officials, appeared to be designed in part to create such a vacuum.

Yet the anticipated fragmentation has not materialized.

Instead, Iranian authorities have focused on projecting unity and political cohesion. Mass rallies and public demonstrations have taken place across multiple cities, with large crowds gathering in public squares to express support for the government and condemnation of the attacks.

These displays serve an important political function.

By filling public spaces with supporters, the government is attempting to pre-empt the emergence of alternative movements that might claim to represent a popular response to the war.

In effect, the strategy denies external actors the ability to argue that military intervention is intended to support domestic opposition or restore democratic governance.

For Washington and Tel Aviv, the assumption that internal unrest could become a decisive factor appears to have been a significant miscalculation.

Calibrated diplomacy

Despite the widening military confrontation, Iran has also sought to maintain a careful diplomatic balance with Arab governments.

Iranian officials have repeatedly emphasized that their strikes are directed at US military installations rather than the countries that host them.

This distinction is important.

Tehran’s broader objective appears to be preventing Arab states from becoming full participants in the conflict. While warning that any government enabling US military operations could face retaliation, Iran has simultaneously signaled that it does not seek confrontation with the region as a whole.

The message to Arab governments has therefore been dual-layered: do not allow your territory to be used for attacks on Iran, but if you avoid direct involvement, Iran does not consider you an enemy.

Such messaging reflects Tehran’s understanding that regional alignment could dramatically reshape the war’s dynamics.

READ: US intelligence assessment questions whether war could topple Iran’s regime

Strategic weaknesses

Despite the coherence of Iran’s overall approach, several weaknesses remain.

One of the most significant challenges lies in the realm of communication.

Iranian media outlets, operating under heavy pressure and frequent targeting, have struggled to project their narrative effectively to global audiences. Compared with the sophisticated international media infrastructure available to Western governments and Israel, Iran’s messaging often fails to reach wider international publics.

This limits Tehran’s ability to frame the conflict on its own terms.

A second challenge concerns the global anti-war movement.

While protests against the war have emerged in various cities around the world, they have not yet reached a scale capable of exerting decisive political pressure on governments supporting the conflict.

For Iran, the expansion of such protests could become a critical factor in constraining the military options available to Washington and its allies.

A war of strategy

Taken together, Iran’s actions suggest a leadership attempting to wage war according to a clearly defined strategic framework.

Military escalation, economic disruption, domestic mobilization, and diplomatic signaling all appear to function as parts of a single integrated approach designed to raise the cost of the conflict beyond what its adversaries may be willing to bear.

Whether the strategy ultimately succeeds remains uncertain.

What is increasingly evident, however, is that the war is evolving into a contest not only of military capabilities but also of strategic coherence.

For now, Iran appears to be operating according to a calculated plan, while its adversaries continue to search for a sustainable path forward in a rapidly expanding conflict.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 

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