Weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago. Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Increasing frequency of heatwaves and flooding raises fears over health, infrastructure and how society functions
Record-breaking extreme weather is the new norm in the UK, scientists have said, showing that the country is firmly in the grip of the climate crisis.
The hottest days people endure have dramatically increased in frequency and severity, and periods of intense rain have also ramped up, data from hundreds of weather stations shows. Heatwaves and floods leading to deaths and costly damage are of “profound concern” for health, infrastructure and the functioning of society, the scientists said.
The weather records clearly show the UK’s climate is different now compared with just a few decades ago, the scientists said, as a result of the carbon pollution emitted by burning fossil fuels.
The analysis found that the number of days with temperatures 5C above the average for 1961-1990 had doubled in the last 10 years. For days 8C above average, the number has trebled and for 10C above average it has quadrupled. The UK has also become 8% sunnier in the last decade.
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The assessment, called the State of the UK Climate 2024 and published in the International Journal of Climatology, found the last three years were in the UK’s top five hottest years on record. The warmest spring on record was seen in 2024 although this has already been surpassed in 2025.
The UK has particularly long meteorological records and the Central England Temperature series is the longest instrumental record in the world. It shows that recent temperatures have far exceeded any in at least 300 years. However, today’s high temperatures are likely to be average by 2050, and cool by 2100, the scientists said.
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A man walks on a hot summer day in Srinagar, India-controlled Kashmir, July 25, 2024
SCIENTISTS say four billion people — about half the world’s population — experienced at least one extra month of extreme heat from May 2024 to May 2025 because of human-caused climate change.
The extreme heat caused illness, death, crop losses and strained energy and healthcare systems, according to the analysis from World Weather Attribution, Climate Central and the Red Cross.
“Although floods and cyclones often dominate headlines, heat is arguably the deadliest extreme event,” the report said.
Many heat-related deaths are unreported or are mislabelled by other conditions like heart disease or kidney failure.
The study shows how much climate change boosted temperatures in an extreme heat event and calculated how much more likely its occurrence was because of climate change.
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The fires that have engulfed Los Angeles cap the hottest decade in history.
Each year in the last ten was record-warm, but 2024 was the warmest ever recorded. Last year, Earth was 1.6°C hotter than the temperature average of the late 19th century, which was before widespread fossil fuel burning had significantly altered the climate.
Still, the conflagrations which have so far claimed 25 lives and razed thousands of homes are not inevitable – even on our overheating planet.
“While climate change sets the stage for larger and more intense fires, humans are actively fanning the flames,” says Virginia Iglesias, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder.
Extreme heat dries out vegetation and the soil. Wildfires ignite more easily, spread faster and burn with greater intensity in these conditions, as parched land is more flammable. In the western US, aridity caused by climate change has helped double the amount of combustible forest since 1984.
Nights are warming faster than days globally, and dusk has brought no reprieve from the fires menacing the residential areas of Pacific Palisades and Altadena. It’s been more than a week since the first spark but firefighters warn several more may pass before the flames are fully contained.
High winds and whiplash
Something is filling the fires with oxygen and spreading their embers to dry brush. The Santa Ana winds that blow down the San Gabriel Mountains between autumn and January lose moisture and gain heat as they rush downslope, and these gusts reached hurricane strength (exceeding 80 miles per hour) at the start of 2025.
“When the wind is blowing like this, there is very little chance of stopping fires,” says Jon Keeley, a plant ecologist at the University of California, Los Angeles.
Gusts have whipped the fire front onward and made containing the blazes difficult. EPA-EFE/Allison Dinner
Santa Ana would cause much less havoc in a more typical wet season, which runs from October to April in California. Ming Pan, a hydrologist who tracks the state’s water supplies, estimates that soil moisture in southern California is in the bottom 2% of historical records for early January.
In other words, the area around LA is about as dry as scientists have ever known it to be at this time of year. Why? Well, southern California has received less than 10% of the rain it would normally get from October onward. But it had the opposite problem last winter.
“Unusually wet winters in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 led to increased vegetation growth, providing more fuel for the fires,” says Doug Specht, a geographer at the University of Westminster.
“This cycle of wet and dry extremes, known as ‘hydroclimate whiplash’, is part of the increasingly intense climate cycles caused by climate change.”
Affluent LA is the most recent arena of climate disaster to capture the world’s attention. Yet it is the poorest 20% of humanity who have felt the sting of whiplashes between drought and downpour most keenly according to Specht.
When unusually heavy rain meets baked ground that cannot easily absorb it, as it did across much of east Africa in spring 2024, flash floods and landslides follow.
‘Perpetually on the brink of catastrophe’
Now we come to the more immediately tractable causes of these fires.
“Fire is a natural process that has shaped ecosystems for over 420 million years,” Iglesias says.
“Indigenous people historically used controlled burns to manage landscapes and reduce fuel buildup. However, a century of fire suppression has allowed vast areas to accumulate dense fuels, priming them for larger and more intense wildfires.”
European colonisation has transformed relationships with the land. Subsequent arrivals to southern California have included invasive plants capable of overrunning native flora and forming dense, uninterrupted fuel beds.
The legacy of these fires may be more invasive plants, and more flammable landscapes. That’s because invasive species are typically better at exploiting extreme weather, their tendrils colonising land disturbed by fire before native species can recover.
The overwhelming majority of wildfires that affect people are also ignited by them, intentionally or otherwise. Lightning has been ruled out for the LA fires so that leaves a wealth of human explanations: arson, unattended campfires, overheating engines or sparks from power lines that utilities have neglected to replace.
“More people now live in and at the edges of wildland areas, and the power grid has expanded with them. That creates more opportunities for fires to start,” Keeley adds.
The Eaton fire which erupted near Altadena on January 7 would have probably burned out in citrus orchards 50 years ago. Today, there is no buffer between homes and the wildland, Keeley says.
Fast-moving wildfires have engulfed residential neighbourhoods with stunning speed. EPA-EFE/Allison Dinner
Whether it was wise to bring flammable homes and cars into this fire-adapted wildland is a debate that should have started nearly a century ago, after the catastrophic Malibu fire in 1930. It didn’t, and late urban historian Mike Davis had a lot to say about why.
“Davis, who died in 2022, painted a vivid, if pessimistic picture of Los Angeles as both a real and imagined city perpetually on the brink of catastrophe,” says Alexander Howard, a senior lecturer in English and writing at the University of Sydney.
“Davis’ Los Angeles is a place where – as he comprehensively details – commercial greed overrides common sense and the social good, where institutional racism marginalises vulnerable communities, and where wilful political inertia ensures history repeats itself with devastating consequences.”
Davis criticised liberal California politicians who greeted each new fire with calls to cut greenhouse gas emissions, but continued to allow real estate developers to “profitably but insanely, [build] in high-fire-risk areas”.
Although motivated by greed, these developers were not alone in their assessment of southern California as a tranquil paradise ripe for luxury housing. LA’s urbanisation occurred “during one of the most unusual episodes of climatic and seismic benignity” according to Davis, who traced natural disasters and climate change back several centuries.
“These spans are too short to serve as reliable proxies for ecological time or to sample the possibilities of future environmental stress,” he writes. “In effect, we think ourselves gods upon the land but we are still really just tourists.”
People wade through floodwaters in Feni, Bangladesh, on August 25, 2024. (Photo: Zakir Hossain Chowdhury/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
“No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change,” said a lead researcher.
Over $1 trillion spent each year on subsidizing fossil fuel production must be redirected to public health efforts, said the experts behind a new annual report monitoring progress on the climate and global health.
“This year’s stocktake of the imminent health threats of climate inaction reveals the most concerning findings yet in our eight years of monitoring,” said Marina Romanello, executive director of the Lancet Countdown and a senior research fellow at UCL. “Once again, last year broke climate change records—with extreme heatwaves, deadly weather events, and devastating wildfires affecting people around the world.”
With 2023 named the hottest year on record earlier this year by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the researchers behind the new report found that the average person experienced an additional 50 days of dangerously hot weather that would not have happened without fossil fuel extraction heating the planet.
Heat-related deaths among people over age 65 reached the highest level ever recorded, 167% higher than in the 1990s and more than double the 65% increase that was expected if temperatures hadn’t changed since then.
An additional 151 million people across 124 countries experienced moderate or severe food insecurity last year, an increase that was associated with extreme drought that affected almost half of global land area.
“We must cure the sickness of climate inaction—by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction.”
Changing climate conditions across the globe and the flooding that has come with more frequent hurricanes and tropical storms are also fueling a rise in the transmission of infectious diseases like dengue fever, according to the Lancet Countdown, and warmer coastal waters contributed a record-high number of cases of the bacterial infection vibriosis last year.
“The mosquitoes that spread infections like dengue fever epidemics are reaching new countries, and gradually moving north,” said Anthony Costello, a professor at UCL Institute for Global Health and co-chair of the countdown.
But despite those indicators and others, said Romanello, “we see financial resources continue to be invested in the very things that undermine our health.”
Researchers expressed optimism about rising investments in renewable energy, but warned that new fossil fuel investment accounted for more than a third of new energy spending in 2023, and 84% of world governments continue to subsidize fossil fuel production despite clear warnings from scientists that oil and gas extraction have no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C.
Governments are “in effect paying an estimated $1.4 trillion dollars per year to worsen the crisis,” reportedThe Hill.
Meanwhile, “only 68% of countries reported high-to-very-high implementation of the legally mandated capacities to manage health emergencies in 2023,” according to the Lancet Countdown. Just 35% of countries reported having early warning healthcare systems for heat-related illness.
“No individual or economy on the planet is immune from the health threats of climate change,” said Romanello. “The relentless expansion of fossil fuels and record-breaking greenhouse gas emissions compounds these dangerous health impacts and is threatening to reverse the limited progress made so far and put a healthy future further out of reach.”
Total carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion reached nearly 40 gigatonnes last year, a 1.1% increase from 2022, contributing to high levels of air pollution as well as changing climate conditions.
“National-level net subsidies exceeded 10% of national health spending in 55% of the countries, and 100% in 27% of them,” reads a visual summary of the report. “These funds could be redirected towards supporting the transition to clean energy sources, protect vulnerable populations from soaring climate change risks, and enable a healthy future.”
Redirecting fossil fuel subsidies “would provide the opportunity to deliver a fair, equitable transition to clean energy and energy efficiency, and a healthier future, ultimately benefiting the global economy,” said Romanello.
Released less than two weeks before world governments are set to convene in Azerbaijan for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), where climate finance is expected to be a key issue, the report calls for “new strategies and finance for implementation” in order to protect global public health from climate disasters.
“These must acknowledge climate change’s effects on health and related systems, assess risks and vulnerabilities, and incorporate resilience to shocks,” reads a joint brief by the Lancet Countdown and Médecins Sans Frontières, also called Doctors Without Borders. “Adequate, predictable, and unified climate finance for adaptation and technical support is urgently needed to enable ministries of health and their implementing partners to adopt forward-thinking strategies, integrate anticipatory actions, and enhance flexibility and agility in their operating models.”
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said the report shows “we must cure the sickness of climate inaction—by slashing emissions, protecting people from climate extremes, and ending our fossil fuel addiction—to create a fairer, safer, and healthier future for all.”
To shift resources toward a “zero-emissions future,” said Costello, “people’s health must be put front and center of climate change policy to ensure the funding mechanisms protect well-being, reduce health inequities and maximize health gains, especially for the countries and communities that need it most.”
Geenpeace activists set up a billboard during a protest outside Shell headquarters amid the company’s profits announcement on July 27, 2023 in London, England. (Photo: Handout/Chris J Ratcliffe for Greenpeace via Getty Images)
“We cannot let countries and communities that have done the least to cause climate change pay the price for Shell’s greed,” one green group said.
A little more than a week after Earth endured its four hottest days on record, fossil fuel giant Shell announced higher second-quarter profits than expected at $6.3 billion.
The company also announced a new share buyback program worth $3.5 billion through September, CNBC reported.
“It is shameful that Shell, as one of the world’s largest and most profitable fossil fuel companies, continues to reap billions in profits off the back of its planet-wrecking oil and gas operations,” Chiara Liguori, the senior climate justice policy adviser at Oxfam Great Britain, said in response to the news. “At a time when the company should be taking strong action to cut emissions it is instead weakening its climate targets and continues to invest in new oil and gas projects, in favor of short-term shareholder returns.”
“That the profits of two companies alone can outweigh the GDP of six countries already being battered by the climate crisis lays bare the shameful inequity at the heart of the fossil fuel economy.”
Shell’s announcement covers the months of April through June 2024. While the company made 19% less than it did during the first three months of the year, it made $400 million more than London Stock Exchange Group predicted for the quarter, according to CNBC.
A Global Witness analysis concluded that Shell paid $23 billion to shareholders since June 2023. Every month in that same 13-month period saw temperatures averaging 1.5°C or more above preindustrial levels—the more ambitious temperature goal enshrined in the Paris agreement. Each month in that stretch was also the hottest of its kind on record.
“Wildfires raging across the Arctic Circle and temperature records breaking by the day should be a wake-up call,” Greenpeace U.K. said on social media. “But Shell continues to bank billions from digging up climate-wrecking fossil fuels.”
Shell’s announcement caps a month in which high global temperatures fueled a number of extreme weather events. July began with Hurricane Beryl forming as the earliest ever Category 4 and Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record, before it devastated several Caribbean islands. Last week, a fast-moving wildfire forced more than 20,000 people to flee historic Jasper in the Canadian Rockies before it destroyed nearly a third of the town. The same week, Typhoon Gaemi dumped more than 1,000 millimeters of rain on Taiwan in less than 24 hours.
“As people flee wildfires in Canada, floods in Taiwan, and rebuild in the wake of Storm Beryl, Shell is doubling down on fossil fuels, U-turning on renewables, and profiting to the tune of billions from an intensifying climate crisis,” Alice Harrison, head of Fossil Fuel Campaigns at Global Witness, said in a statement.
Shell’s announcement also comes days after BP posted $2.8 billion in second-quarter profits.
Global Witness calculated that BP and Shell’s second-quarter profits combined would be enough to pay one-tenth of the $100 billion in climate-related loss and damage money that developing nations have requested by 2030.
At the same time, the two oil giants’ profits over the past year—£31.2 billion ($39.8 billion)—exceed the £27.7 ($35.3) billion combined gross domestic products of the six nations most impacted by Beryl: Barbados, the Cayman Islands, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada, according to Global Justice Now.
“That the profits of two companies alone can outweigh the GDP of six countries already being battered by the climate crisis lays bare the shameful inequity at the heart of the fossil fuel economy,” Izzie McIntosh, climate campaigner at Global Justice Now, said in a statement. “People in the Caribbean devastated by the impacts of Hurricane Beryl are left to pick up the pieces, while rich shareholders and fossil fuel CEOs get to rake in the profits, removed from the chaos they’ve played a leading role in creating.”
The climate justice organizations called for governments to take action to stop fossil fuel companies before they can further destabilize Earth’s climate.
“We need accountability and a government that isn’t afraid to stand up to them—it can start by introducing measures to make these polluting megacorporations pay up for the climate damage they’ve caused in the Global South, as well as a fossil fuel phaseout,” McIntosh continued.
Harrison agreed: “We can’t keep letting polluters off the hook. Governments should be holding fossil fuel majors to account for the crisis they created and forcing them to pay for the damage they are inflicting on millions of families around the world.”
Oxfam G.B. and Greenpeace U.K. recommended policies for the United Kingdom—where Shell and BP are headquartered—specifically.
“As global temperatures and the huge costs of tackling the climate crisis continue to rise, the U.K. government has a chance to ensure those most responsible for contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions, like Shell, are held to account by taxing them more,” Liguori said. “This could help raise the vital funds needed to ensure a fair switch to clean, renewable energy in the U.K. as well as fulfilling our international commitments to support communities worst-hit by climate change to adapt and recover.”
Greenpeace concluded: “We cannot let countries and communities that have done the least to cause climate change pay the price for Shell’s greed. The new Labour government must prove it is different to its predecessor by reining in the fossil fuel giants and imposing bold new taxes on polluters to force them to pay their climate debts at home and abroad.”
A man walks on a hot summer day in Srinagar, India-controlled Kashmir, July 25, 2024
