Richard Hargy, Queen’s University Belfast

The US is bracing for another cycle of elections, with November’s midterms determining the scope of Donald Trump’s power in the final two years of his presidency. All seats in the House of Representatives will be contested, as will one-third of the Senate.

Trump’s Republican party currently controls both branches of Congress. However, polls are indicating a swing to the Democrats that would see them retake the House. A current RealClear generic congressional vote poll, in which people are asked whether they will vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, gives the Democrats a five percentage point lead over the Republicans at 47.4% to 42%.

One major variable that is likely to affect the outcome of November’s elections is the war in Iran. Some Republican political operatives believe the conflict and its repercussions, namely the increased cost of living, could prove fatal to their party’s hopes of securing a slim retention of the House.

A March poll by the Pew Research Center revealed 61% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the conflict. One voting demographic of particular concern for Republicans is people aged 18 to 29. An Economist/YouGov poll also from March showed that 63% of these people opposed the war.

Men within this age bracket were an important factor in Trump’s 2024 election victory. Philip Wang, political reporter for Time magazine, argued in an article on April 8 that this “same voting bloc … is showing far less interest in voting in the midterms”.

William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has asserted that the affordability issue is affecting Trump’s standing. He has also stated that, for a majority of Americans, the president’s “priorities do not align with theirs”. A recent survey conducted by American non-profit Consumer Action for a Strong Economy revealed that voters’ most pressing concern was the price of groceries, with the cost of healthcare coming second.

Over the past year, both parties have also engaged in redistricting efforts designed to increase their respective chances of controlling the House. In a number of mainly – though not exclusively – Republican controlled states, legislators have redrawn congressional maps in an attempt to secure more seats.

The redistricting war has come down to two final states: Democratic-led Virginia and Republican-dominated Florida. On April 21, voters in Virginia will decide the fate of proposed new congressional boundaries heavily favouring Democrats. Florida’s legislature will vote days later on a revised Republican-leaning electoral map.

However, there are growing concerns in both political camps about these votes and their impact on the result of the midterms. Florida Republicans fear Trump’s low approval ratings could cost them redrawn districts, while Democrats are encountering tepid backing from their supporters for their aggressive redistricting in Virginia.

Growing Democrat momentum

There have already been significant election results in recent weeks that have shed light on the trajectory of the upcoming midterms. In Republican-led Texas, a fascinating race is shaping up between both parties for a Senate seat. The last time a Democrat won here was in 1988.

In primary elections in March, Democratic voters chose state representative James Talarico as their candidate for November’s election. Republicans are yet to confirm theirs, with incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing Texas attorney-general Ken Paxton in a run-off election in May.

Primary voting numbers in Texas are encouraging for Democrats. For the first time in six years, more of its supporters cast early vote ballots in a March primary than Republicans. Democrats also saw a major shift in Latino voters to their side, a voting bloc that had swung to Trump in record numbers in 2024.

According to analysis by American broadcaster NPR: “In the ten most populous counties in Texas that are also at least 50% Latino, votes in the Democratic primary increased by an average of 128%.” The same analysis concluded that, in those same counties, the Republican primary saw an average drop in votes of 4.8%.

Then, in early April, liberal judge Chris Taylor won a seat on the state of Wisconsin’s supreme court. She secured 60.1% of the vote to her conservative opponent’s 39.8%. Taylor’s statewide vote is an impressive 21 percentage points higher than Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s vote share was in the state in 2024.

Also in early April, an election took place in Georgia to fill the congressional seat vacated by former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene. Greene, who has publicly broken with Trump over his handling of the Epstein files, won in 2024 by almost 29 percentage points. Her replacement, Clay Fuller, held the seat for the Republican party by a much narrower margin of just 12 percentage points.

The forecasts for November’s midterm elections are moving in the Democrats direction, especially for taking control of the House. But there is some reason for hope among Republicans.

Figures from CBS News and CNN/SSRS show that at the same point in 2006 and 2018 – also midterm election years where a Republican president was in office – Democrats were ahead on party favourability by 18 points and 12 points respectively. At this stage in 2026, the data reveals Republicans are actually sitting with a five-point favourability lead.

Seven months out from November’s midterms, Democrats have momentum on their side as well as a Republican president whose poll ratings are plummeting. The most likely outcome is that the Democrats will emerge with control of at least one branch of Congress.

Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.