Reform Party leader Nigel Farage celebrates his party candidate Sarah Pochin winning the Runcorn and Helsby byelection by six votes Photograph: Anthony Devlin/Getty Images
The head of the UK’s biggest union has urged staff at Reform UK-controlled councils to sign up after Nigel Farage warned workers to seek “alternative careers”.
Farage said during a speech on Friday that he would advise council staff working on diversity or climate change initiatives to seek “alternative careers very, very quickly” after Reform UK took control of Durham county council.
The Clacton MP’s party made major gains in Thursday’s local elections, picking up 10 councils and more than 600 seats. The party also won two mayoral races and secured a fifth MP in Runcorn and Helsby with Sarah Pochin.
Responding to Farage’s comments, Unison general secretary Christina McAnea said: “Unions are there to ensure no one can play fast and loose with the law.
“Any staff working for councils now controlled by Reform, and who aren’t yet members, should sign up so they can be protected too.”
Farage has said he wants a British equivalent of Doge – referring to the Elon Musk’s so-called “department of government efficiency”, which is slashing government spending in the US, in every council.
Climate science denier Nigel Farage explains that it’s simple to blame asylum-seekers or Muslims for everything.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
Original article by Alan Macleod republished from MPN under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 International License.
The Trump administration’s deal to send large numbers of people to prisons in El Salvador has thrust its president, Nayib Bukele, into the international spotlight. Bukele has been praised, especially in conservative media, as a dynamic and popular leader who has saved his country from the grips of gang violence. But beneath this polished image, he has cemented his rule based on assigning himself autocratic powers, jailing and persecuting his political opponents, and overseeing the creation and expansion of the world’s first prison state. MintPress News explores the dark side of the man who calls himself “the world’s coolest dictator.”
Cruelty is the Point
The hundreds of migrant detainees the U.S. sent to Central America should be kept in Salvadoran jails “for the rest of their lives,” according to Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in an April interview. This is despite the fact that a Bloomberg investigation found that around 90% of those deported have no criminal records or charges against them.
Noem’s words reflect an administration eager to find a partner willing to help them outsource America’s prison-industrial complex. In February, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele offered to use El Salvador’s sprawling and rapidly growing network of jails to receive thousands of “dangerous American criminals” for a fraction of the cost of detaining them in the United States. “No country has ever made an offer of friendship such as this,” said a delighted Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a strong Bukele supporter.
The migrants have been sent to the Terrorism Confinement Center (Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo, or CECOT), a $115 million facility widely criticized by human rights groups that opened its doors in October 2023. The 23-hectare site is situated in a rural area of the country, around 70 km (45 miles) from the capital, San Salvador, and is set to house 40,000 people, making it, by quite some margin, the largest prison in world history.
Conditions inside the jail have been widely condemned. Those incarcerated are packed into cells of up to 100 people. Sleeping on metal or concrete bunks, inmates must defecate in front of their cellmates. A 2024 report from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights found an average of just 0.6 square meters (6.45 square feet) per inmate. Lights are kept on 24 hours a day.
Kristi Noem tours El Salvador’s mega-prison with Minister Héctor Villatoro, March 26, 2025. Alex Brandon | AP
The food is as sparse as the personal space. Detainees are fed just 450 grams of the same meal every day, consisting of beans, pasta and tortillas, along with coffee or another drink. Provided no utensils, they must eat with their hands only.
CECOT offers no outside recreation space, and those inside are allowed only 30 minutes per day out of their cells. Upon arrival, prisoners have their heads shaved, and are often forced to sit close together in formations resembling the conditions on trans-Atlantic slave ships. They are not allowed any contact with their friends, family, or lawyers. Often, the first news a family receives of the whereabouts of their disappeared relative is a note explaining that they have died in prison. The Bukele administration has made clear that they intend to make sure those inside CECOT’s walls “will never leave.”
The Trump administration had shown little concern for the reported condition at CECOT. In March, Noem herself traveled to the complex to pose in front of dozens of incarcerated people, warning others that they could be next. The Trump administration has justified its move as legal under an obscure law from 1798, and claimed that those deported were members of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan criminal group.
Prison Nation
Yet the conditions at CECOT are actually considerably better than at many other Salvadoran jails, as it is one of the few facilities not (yet) overflowing with inmates. In 2022, under the rubric of fighting gang violence, Bukele declared a state of exception, suspending civil liberties and overseeing the arrest and imprisonment of 85,000 people. The prison population has tripled in just a few years, to the point where around 2% of the country’s adult population is behind bars—equivalent to roughly seven million Americans.
“El Salvador, under the dictatorship of Nayib Bukele, has overtaken the U.S. as the global leader in incarcerating its own people,” Wanda Bertram, a spokesperson for the Prison Policy Initiative, told MintPress News. Today, the country imprisons more than twice as many people per capita as the next highest nation. “As horrific as El Salvador’s mass incarceration program is, we shouldn’t overlook that it had a clear role model in the United States,” she added, pointing out that nearly half of all U.S. adults have an immediate family member who has been incarcerated.
Few of those caught up in Bukele’s massive dragnet have had due process. Unable to prove their guilt or connections to MS-13 or other gangs, prosecutors continue to extend their pretrial detentions. Torture is widespread. “It’s a system that by design is mistreating and torturing people,” said Ana Piquer, Amnesty International’s Americas Director. Hundreds have died in custody.
Since he declared the state of exception, Bukele’s forces have arrested at least 3,000 children. Far from releasing them, in February, the president signed a bill into law transferring child detainees into adult prisons.
The U.S. government is intimately aware of the nature of Bukele’s rule. A 2023 State Department report detailed widespread abuses, including:
[U]nlawful or arbitrary killings; enforced disappearance; torture or cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by security forces; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest or detention; [and] serious problems with the independence of the judiciary.”
It also noted that, even before the massive surge in prisoner numbers, conditions inside Bukele’s jails were “harsh and life-threatening,” and recounted how prison guards beat victims to death and used electric stun guns on the prison’s wet floors to deliver shocks to prisoners en masse.
Osiris Luna, the director of El Salvador’s prison system, had been sanctioned by the U.S. government for his role in “gross human rights abuses.”
Despite the long list of documented abuses, the Trump administration has chosen El Salvador as the location to dump migrants and has promised that this is the beginning of a long partnership between the two nations.
“Salvadoran prisons are the product of the U.S. justice department, Drug Enforcement Agency, and other officials’ work in Latin America over the course of the decades. The United States has aided and abetted the construction of these gulags of the Americas. And so, in a lot of ways, Bukele is a monster made in the U.S.,” Roberto Lovato, a Salvadoran-American writer and professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told MintPress News.
Accused gang members sit on the floor of El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center, March 15, 2023. Via AP
“The combination of importing U.S. prison and gang culture with U.S. government-funded digital technology applied to politics is how we get Bukele now,” he added. Lovato’s 2020 memoir, “Unforgetting: A Memoir of Family, Migration, Gangs, and Revolution in the Americas,” explores the relationship of violence between the U.S. and El Salvador.
President Bukele has justified the crackdown as a necessary response to the country’s overwhelming organized crime problem, with groups such as MS-13 and Barrio 18 terrorizing the nation. His uncompromising approach has produced results: El Salvador’s official murder rate has fallen dramatically, and many say the country’s streets are safe again. His policies have certainly gained him significant public backing and praise in the West.
“Nayib Bukele’s iron fist has transformed El Salvador,” wrote Time magazine, noting he is “arguably the most popular head of state in the world.” He also has a fan in billionaire turned government official Elon Musk, who met with him in September, describing him as an “amazing leader.” Bukele’s achievements, including the drop in homicides, Musk later stated that such policies, “need to happen and will happen in America.”
One major issue with this narrative, however, is that as soon as the state of exception was declared, the government began radically undercounting homicides by changing the way deaths were recorded. As Foreign Policy noted, unidentified bodies, or those discovered in mass graves, were no longer classified as homicides, nor were prison homicides, or individuals killed by Bukele’s police or security forces, a number known to total in the hundreds.
Persecuting Opponents
El Salvador’s youngest president has used these same security forces to attack those who oppose him, such as union leaders and human rights campaigners.
In January, the spokesperson for the Human Rights and Community Defense Union, along with 20 local leaders fighting the eviction of hundreds of families from their land, were arrested and absorbed into the country’s sprawling prison network. Public union leaders who organized a protest against the government’s failure to pay its workers were also jailed. Likewise, officials and activists from the country’s main left-wing political party, the FMLN (in power between 2009 and 2019), are prime targets.
Journalists unwilling to toe the official line have faced scrutiny and persecution. A 2022 report from Citizen Lab and Amnesty International found Pegasus spyware on the devices of dozens of Salvadoran reporters and civil society leaders.
Outlets critical of Bukele have been subjected to costly audits and other legal measures to financially cripple them. In 2023, El Faro, one of the nation’s leading outlets, moved its operations to neighboring Costa Rica, citing ongoing threats against its staff. “The dismantling of democracy, the lack of checks and balances on the exercise of power of a small group of people, the attacks against press freedom, and the shuttering of all transparency and accountability mechanisms gravely threaten Salvadorans’ right to be informed,” its editorial board lamented.
Another potential check on Bukele’s power is the judiciary, and the president has taken steps to dismantle it, replacing older judges with loyalists and packing the courts. In 2021, in what was widely described as a “self-coup,” he swiftly removed the Attorney General and five judges from the Supreme Court.
With few impediments to his power, Bukele could then concentrate on implementing his agenda of economic shock therapy, which largely consisted of firing tens of thousands of public workers and reducing taxes on the rich and the international business community.
More than 22,000 public sector employees have been laid off in a country of only 6.3 million people. Most of them have not received their legally mandated compensation, and some of those who protested have been arrested.
Bukele has been careful to enrich his backers in El Salvador’s business community. Indeed, he has gone so far as to announce his intent to charge municipal governments who do not lower business taxes with “extortion”—a crime usually associated with organized criminal groups. In a country supposedly fighting an all-out war against gangs, the consequences of being labeled as such could be severe.
Another of Bukele’s projects is to try to turn El Salvador into a tech hub, building data centers and science parks across the country. To much international fanfare, in 2021, he made Bitcoin legal tender, although it failed to gather significant domestic traction. He has also used social media to carefully craft his image as a maverick risk-taker. Lovato was unimpressed by Bukele’s branding, telling MintPress:
El Salvador is a digital dictatorship. It is innovating fascism for the digital age. The country has always been a laboratory for U.S. repression tactics. Both Democrat and Republican administrations would study and experiment with everything from death squads, torture, surveillance technology, and now imprisonment in El Salvador, and then they would bring it back to the U.S.”
Made in the USA
Internationally, Bukele has aligned himself with the Trump administration and the global right-wing movement. This has included Israel.
Despite being a member of El Salvador’s large Palestinian diaspora, Bukele has made pains to associate himself with Tel Aviv. In 2019, he traveled to Jerusalem to meet with local officials and to be photographed at the Western Wall. And in the wake of the October 7 attack, he described Hamas as “savage beasts” and said that the “best thing that could happen to the Palestinian people is for Hamas to completely disappear.”
The conditions that led to El Salvador’s poverty and Bukele’s rise were intimately shaped by the United States. Throughout the late twentieth century, successive administrations provided the cash, weapons, and training for far-right death squads to rampage throughout Central America, in an attempt to suppress the then-armed FMLN guerrillas.
Trade policies, crafted in Washington, locked El Salvador into a dependent relationship with the U.S., turning the country into a source of cheap labor, where American corporations could outsource poorly-paid jobs, like those in textiles. Predictably, millions of Salvadorans attempted to escape this fate. Two and a half million have moved to the United States. Aroundhalf of those living there now are undocumented, meaning that they could be swept up by the very system Bukele is enabling Trump to roll out. Remittances continue to sustain the economy. Furthermore, the insatiable appetite for drugs in the U.S. has left deep scars on the Central American nation, as rival cartels vie for supremacy and control over the lucrative drug trade.
Rather than stop the harm that is triggering it in the first place, Washington’s solution to the predictable migrant wave is to militarize the border, using many of the tactics honed by the same death squads it funded in the 1980s.
Perhaps most ominously, the Trump administration is looking to drastically expand the outsourcing of the carceral state to El Salvador, including sending American citizens to the country.
In a meeting between the two presidents in the Oval Office in April, Trump stated that “Home-growns are next. The home-growns. You have got to build about five more places. It [CECOT] is not big enough.” Bukele appeared delighted by the proposal. “Yeah, we’ve got space,” he replied.
This development has shocked onlookers. “The U.S. system of mass incarceration is already draconian, oppressive, and racist. Sending U.S. citizens to El Salvador would be an extremely dark turn for an already misguided system,” Bertram told MintPress.
“El Salvador serves the U.S. as a laboratory of repression,” Lovato said:
Just as the U.S. provided El Salvador with schools of oppression, like the School of the Americas. And now we see what I call the Salvadorization of the United States. The wealth gap between rich and poor has reached Latin American proportions, and even surpassed them. The dismantling of the welfare state, coup attempts, mass imprisonment, counterinsurgency theory and practice, the militarization of the police. The U.S. is becoming a Latin American country in many ways, and therefore, it is having to learn repression techniques from places like El Salvador.”
It is, therefore, crucial for those wishing to understand American politics to study the Salvadoran model. “If you want to look to the future of the U.S., you can look at the history of El Salvador, and you can see some of the things that are coming our way now. And we should be signaling red alert,” Lovato said.
Follow Alan on Twitter for more of his work and commentary: @AlanRMacLeod.
Original article by Alan Macleod republished from MPN under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 International License.
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
U.S. President Donald Trump takes a question from a reporter at the White House in Washington, D.C. on April 29, 2025. (Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
RSF says Trump’s moves “have jeopardized the country’s news outlets and indicate that he intends to follow through on his threats, setting up a potential crisis for American journalism.”
Press freedom in the United States has fallen to its lowest level since Reporters Without Borders began publishing its annual ranking more than 20 years ago, with President Donald Trump’s return to power “greatly exacerbating the situation,” RSF said Friday.
The U.S. fell from 55th to 57th place on RSF’s World Press Freedom Index, marking the second straight year that the situation in the country which lists freedom of the press first in its Bill of Rights has been classified as “problematic.” The report comes ahead of World Press Freedom Day on May 3.
The U.S. has been trending downward on RSF’s index since 2013, when it ranked 32nd in global press freedom. A decade later, it had fallen to 45th place before plunging to 55th place last year amid Trump’s attacks on the media.
“Trump was elected to a second term after a campaign in which he denigrated the press on a daily basis and made explicit threats to weaponize the federal government against the media,” the report states.
Press freedom in the United States has hit a record low, according to the latest World Press Freedom Index published annually by Reporters Without Borders.
“His early moves in his second mandate to politicize the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), ban The Associated Press from the White House, or dismantle the U.S. Agency for Global Media, for example, have jeopardized the country’s news outlets and indicate that he intends to follow through on his threats, setting up a potential crisis for American journalism,” the publication continues, accusing Trump of using “false economic pretexts” to “bring the press into line.”
“The First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution provides broad protections for the press. However, no meaningful press freedom legislation has been passed at the national level in recent years despite the country’s consistent slide on the Press Freedom Index,” the report notes. “The PRESS Act, a federal shield law, failed to pass for a second successive time in 2024. More than a dozen states and communities have proposed or enacted laws to limit journalists’ access to public spaces, including barring them from legislative meetings and preventing them from recording the police.”
RSF continued:
Economic constraints have a considerable impact on journalists. Roughly one-third of the American newspapers operating in 2005 have now shuttered. While some public media outlets, and radio stations in particular, have been able to offset this decline thanks to online subscription models, others have found ways to sustain growth through individual donations. Massive waves of layoffs swept the U.S. media throughout 2023 and 2024 and have continued into 2025, affecting both local newsrooms and major legacy outlets. Many parts of the country are now considered news deserts, with the disappearance of local news outlets reaching crisis levels. Since 2022, more than 8,000 journalists have been laid off in the U.S.
Furthermore, “more Americans have no trust in the media than trust it a fair amount. Online harassment, particularly towards women and minorities, is also a serious issue for journalists and can impact their quality of life and safety.”
“Politicians’ open disdain for the media has trickled down to the public,” RSF added. “Journalists reporting on the ground can face harassment, intimidation, and assault while working. When covering demonstrations, journalists are sometimes attacked and physically assaulted by protestors or wrongfully arrested by police. According to the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker, there were 49 journalist arrests in 2024 compared to only 15 in 2023. The last journalist to be killed in the course of his work was Dylan Lyons in February of 2023.”
RSF paints a grim picture for journalism around the world.
“The conditions for practicing journalism are bad in half of the world’s countries,” as “less than 1% of the world’s population lives in a country where press freedom is fully guaranteed,” the report states.
Noting that economic self-sufficiency is critical to a free press, RSF editorial director Anne Bocandé said in a statement that “guaranteeing freedom, independence,s and plurality in today’s media landscape requires stable and transparent financial conditions.”
“Without economic independence, there can be no free press,” Bocandé continued. “When news media are financially strained, they are drawn into a race to attract audiences at the expense of quality reporting, and can fall prey to the oligarchs and public authorities who seek to exploit them. When journalists are impoverished, they no longer have the means to resist the enemies of the press—those who champion disinformation and propaganda.”
“The media economy must urgently be restored to a state that is conducive to journalism and ensures the production of reliable information, which is inherently costly,” she added. “Solutions exist and must be deployed on a large scale. The media’s financial independence is a necessary condition for ensuring free, trustworthy information that serves the public interest.”
RSF’s new rankings come days after U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi ended a Biden administration policy that strictly limited the Justice Department’s authority to seize journalists’ records and compel them to testify in leak investigations.
On Wednesday, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) published a report on Trump’s first 100 days in office, which the group said were “marked by a flurry of executive actions that have created a chilling effect and have the potential to curtail media freedoms.”
"It is disturbing that, on the eve of #WorldPressFreedomDay, the Trump administration has dealt major blows to journalists and the public they serve." — Katherine Jacobsen, CPJ's U.S., Canada, and Caribbean program coordinator
“From denying access to upending respect for the independence of a free press to vilifying news organizations to threatening reprisals, this administration has begun to exert its power to punish or reward based on coverage,” CPJ said. “Whether in the states or on the streets, this behavior is setting a new standard for how the public can treat journalists.”
“The uncertainty and fear resulting from these actions have caused requests for safety advice to increase as journalists and newsrooms aim to prepare for what might be next,” the group added. “These moves represent a notable escalation from the first Trump administration, which also pursued banning and deriding elements of the press. After nearly a decade of repeating insults and falsehoods, and filing lawsuits, Trump has normalized disdain for media to an alarming degree.”
Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an insane, xenophobic Fascist.Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
The Trump administration is a serious threat to democracy. They’re also laughably incompetent. But the result is no laughing matter.
…
Clown-show fascism describes a regime marked simultaneously by hubristic and defiant assaults on the democratic and constitutional order on the one hand and, on the other, a nearly laughable incompetence in just about every other area of the regime’s activity. The first characteristic certainly applies to the Trump administration, and it’s chilling and frightening and not at all funny. Just ask Mahmoud Khalil.
Yet at the same time, in other areas, the incompetence has been staggering. Trump’s constant about-faces and walk backs on tariffs have been an international embarrassment. Elon Musk’s DOGE has fired federal workers willy-nilly only to turn around and rehire many after the Musketeers realized they weren’t deep-state bloodsuckers and the work they did was kind of essential, after all—you know, like the people who tend the country’s nuclear weapons stockpile.
It can be hilarious to watch. But it carries two consequences that are no laughing matter.
First and more obviously, we have the prospect of the impact of Trump’s tariffs policy on real people. Will they cause inflation and a recession, as most experts now believe? As fate would have it, Trump will go to bed the night of his 100th day in office—Tuesday—and wake up the very next morning to the release of the first-quarter GDP number. Economists expect anemic results. The Atlanta Fed even predicts negative growth, around -2.5 percent. During Trump’s first week in office, its forecast nudged a gaudy 4 percent, but the president’s actions have liberated that figure ever downward.
Second and more insidiously: Even the gross incompetencies take us into treacherous territory because they contribute to making this all about one man, the man who must be in front of the cameras every day. He doesn’t have policies so much as he has urges, which he must announce to the world on a constant basis in a desperate plea that we keep him front of mind at all times. Some of those urges are cruel; some of them are a joke. What unites them is that they make the story entirely about him.
That is not how it’s supposed to work in democracies. Which we still are, for now, as we reach this 100-day mark. Only 1,361 to go.
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
Global temperatures in the first quarter of 2025 were the second warmest on record, extending a remarkable run of exceptional warmth that began in July 2023.
This is despite weak La Niña conditions during the first two months of the year – which typically result in cooler temperatures.
With temperature data for the first three months of the year now available, Carbon Brief finds that 2025 is very likely to be one of the three warmest years on record.
However, it currently remains unlikely that temperatures in 2025 will set a new annual record.
In addition to near-record warmth, the start of 2025 has seen record-low sea ice cover in the Arctic between January and March – and the second-lowest minimum sea ice extent on record for Antarctica.
The figure below shows the annual temperatures from each of these groups since 1970, along with the average over the first three months of 2025.
(It is worth noting that the first three months may not be representative of the year as a whole, as greater historical warming rates mean that temperatures relative to pre-industrial levels tend to be larger in the northern hemispheric winter months of December, January and February.)https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/2025-04/records-with-2024-to-date.htmlAnnual global average surface temperatures from NASA GISTEMP, NOAA GlobalTemp, Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5, Berkeley Earth and Copernicus/ECMWF (lines), along with 2025 temperatures so far (January-March, coloured dots). Anomalies plotted with respect to the 1981-2010 period, and shown relative to pre-industrial based on the average pre-industrial temperatures in the Hadley/UEA, NOAA and Berkeley datasets that extend back to 1850. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Starting with this state of the climate update, Carbon Brief will be showing a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) aggregate of the five surface temperature records, rather than highlighting any particular one, reflecting a single best-estimate across the different groups.
The WMO aggregate is calculated by averaging the different records using a common 1981-2010 baseline period, before adding in the average warming since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) across the datasets – NOAA, Hadley, and Berkeley – that extend back to 1850.
The figure below shows how global temperature so far in 2025 (black line) compares to each month in different years since 1940 (with lines coloured by the decade in which they occurred) in the WMO aggregate of surface temperature dataset.https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/2025-04/monthly-global-temp-anomalies.htmlTemperatures for each month from 1940 to 2025 from the WMO aggregate of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.
The first three months of 2025 have been unusually warm, coming in in the top-three warmest on record across all the different scientific groups that report on global surface temperatures. This is despite the presence of moderate La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific, which typically suppress global temperatures.
January 2025 was the warmest January on record in the WMO aggregate, February was the third warmest and March was tied with 2016 as the second warmest.
When combined, the first three months of the year in 2025 were the second-warmest Q1 period in the historical record, just 0.035C below the record set in 2024 after the peak of a strong El Niño event, as shown in the figure below.https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/2025-04/Q1-temp-plot.htmlQ1 temperature anomalies from 1850 through 2025 from the WMO aggregate of temperature records. Anomalies plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. Chart by Carbon Brief.
The persistence of warmth after the end of the 2023-24 El Niño event – and through a weak La Niña – has been highly unusual by historical standards. In most prior cases, global temperatures returned closer to the long-term temperature trend following the return to neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the tropical Pacific.
Weak La Niña conditions have faded over the past month, with ENSO-neutral conditions returning and expected to persist for most models through the remainder of the year. However, predictions of ENSO status are particularly uncertain at this time of year due to a phenomenon known as the “spring predictability barrier”.
The figure below shows a range of different forecast models for the ENSO for the rest of this year, produced by different scientific groups. The values shown are sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific – known as the El Niño 3.4 region – for overlapping three-month periods.
By looking at the relationship between the first three months and the annual temperatures for every year since 1970 – as well as ENSO conditions for the first three months of the year and the projected development of El Niño conditions for the remaining nine months – Carbon Brief has created a projection of what the final global average temperature for 2025 will likely be.
The analysis includes the estimated uncertainty in 2025 outcomes, given that temperatures from only the first quarter of the year are available so far.
The chart below shows the expected range of 2025 temperatures using the WMO aggregate – including a best-estimate (red) and year-to-date value (yellow). Temperatures are shown with respect to the pre-industrial baseline period (1850-1900).https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/2025-04/Q1-2025-estimate.htmlAnnual global average surface temperature anomalies from the WMO aggregate plotted with respect to a 1850-1900 baseline. To-date 2025 values include January-March. The estimated 2025 annual value is based on the relationship between the January-March temperatures and annual temperatures between 1970 and 2024. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Carbon Brief’s projection suggests that 2025 is virtually certain to be one of the top-three warmest years, with a best-estimate approximately equal to global temperatures in 2023.
However, this model assumes that 2025 follows the type of climate patterns seen in the past – patterns that were notably broken in 2023 – and to a lesser extent in 2024. Other recent estimates – such as one published by Berkeley Earth – give a higher probability of around 34% that 2025 will set a new temperature record.
The figure below shows Carbon Brief’s estimate of 2025 temperatures using the WMO aggregate, both at the beginning of the year and once each month’s data has come in. The estimate jumped notably after t2025 saw the warmest January on record, but has been relatively stable over the past three months.
Carbon Brief’s projection of global temperatures based on the WMO aggregate at the start of the year, and after January, February, and March global surface temperature data became available. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Record-low Antarctic and Arctic sea ice
Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent spent much of early 2025 at record, or near-record, lows.
The figure below shows both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2025 (solid red and blue lines), the historical range in the record between 1979 and 2010 (shaded areas) and the record lows (dotted black line).
(Unlike global temperature records, which only report monthly averages, sea ice data is collected and updated on a daily basis, allowing sea ice extent to be viewed up to the present.)https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/2025-04/sea-ice-graph.htmlArctic and Antarctic daily sea ice extent from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The bold lines show daily 2025 values, the shaded area indicates the two standard deviation range in historical values between 1979 and 2010. The dotted black lines show the record lows for each pole. Chart by Carbon Brief.
Arctic sea ice saw a new record low nearly each day between January and March, recording a record-low winter peak extent in late March. Ice extent subsequently moved out of record-low territory in April.
It is worth noting that, as northern hemisphere winter conditions remain cold enough to refreeze sea ice, there tends to be less variability in extent year-to-year in the winter than in the summer, as the chart below illustrates.
Antarctic sea ice started the year within the historical range (1979-2010), before plunging to tie for the second-lowest minimum on record in late February. It has since recovered in April, and is currently on the low end of the historical range.
dizzy: Trump is attempting to censor research and information like this.
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
