Israel Says IDF Will Stay in Lebanon for Months as It Expands Ground Invasion in South

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Original article by Julia Conley republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

Israeli army vehicles maneuver across the border inside a destroyed Lebanese village as seen from the Upper Galilee in northern Israel on March 16, 2026. (Photo by Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images)

“There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen,” said one analyst.

More than 800,000 Lebanese people who have been forced from their homes in southern Lebanon in the last two weeks have little hope of returning soon as the Israeli government on Monday announced its military had begun “limited and targeted ground operations” in and around the strategic southern town of Khiam, a stronghold of Hezbollah.

The ground attacks represent a significant expansion of the Israel Defense Forces’ ground operations. On March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel in retaliation for the US and Israel’s killing of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel began sending troops into Lebanon to bolster the presence the IDF has had there in five areas since a 2024 ceasefire.

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Until now, ground forces have conducted “limited incursions,” Axios reported.

Israel has also launched airstrikes in Lebanon, killing at least 850 people—including 107 children and 66 women—since it was joined by the US late last month in abruptly ending diplomatic negotiations and attacking Iran.

The Times of Israel reported that the IDF carried out “massive airstrikes and artillery shelling ‘to remove threats’” over the weekend before the 91st “Galilee” Regional Division began raiding the eastern section of southern Lebanon in attacks that the military said killed several Hezbollah operatives.

Israel conducted raids on towns including Burj Qalawiya, Sultyaniya, Chaqra, Qantara, and as-Sawana on Monday, according to Al Jazeera Arabic, with the military saying the 91st Division had “begun limited and targeted ground operations against key Hezbollah strongholds in southern Lebanon.”

A major target of the ramped up ground attacks was Khiam, a Hezbollah stronghold that lies at a strategic junction of roads leading to the eastern and western sections of southern Lebanon.

“What Israel has been trying to do is really cut the supply lines and the difficult capabilities of Hezbollah, so it’s unable to bring in more weapons and fighters to areas south of the Litani River,” reported Zeina Khodr of Al Jazeera.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that due to what the IDF claimed will be “limited and targeted ground operations,” close to a million people who have fled their homes in southern Lebanon “will not return to their homes south of the Litani River until the security of the residents of [northern Israel] is guaranteed.”

While claiming the operation in southern Lebanon will be “limited,” Katz also said the operation is intended to resemble Israel’s assault on Gaza, which has continued despite a ceasefire that was reached last October, has killed more than 75,000 Palestinians, and has been called a genocide by leading human rights groups and scholars.

Dozens of healthcare workers have been killed in Israeli strikes since the IDF began attacking Lebanon earlier this month; in Gaza, more than 1,500 doctors, nurses, and medics have been killed in October 2023. One attack that killed two paramedics this week in the southern village of Kfarsir was reportedly a “double-tap” strike in which first responders were killed when they arrived to help victims of an initial strike on a building.

The charity group Save the Children on Monday described children “clutching beloved pets and toys as they flee their homes in Lebanon due to the escalating conflict,” and said nearly 300,000 children are among those who have been forcibly displaced.

More than 130,000 people are sheltering in overcrowded schools that have been repurposed as refugee shelters, said the group, and families have had to leave their homes without time to gather crucial documents, clothes, or medications.

“Many families were forced to flee in the middle of the night with nothing, and children miss their homes, their villages, their friends, and their schools,” said Nora Ingdal, country director for Save the Children Lebanon. “I met a child who told me, ‘I’m not able to play here and I just want to go back to my village as soon as possible.’ One child I met clutched his blue toy car, as it was the only thing he had managed to bring from home.”

“Hostilities must end and children must be protected at all costs,” said Ingdal. “We know children are always the most impacted in any conflict, and the psychological impacts last long after any conflict ends.”

The IDF is reportedly calling up 450,000 reservists to carry out the ground invasion, and the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that a senior Northern Command official told reservists in a briefing that the operation could continue “until Shavuot,” a Jewish holiday falling between May 21-23.

“We will stay as long as necessary,” the official said.

Lebanese security sources told Reuters Monday that the IDF had effectively taken control of Khiam and were advancing west toward the Litani River, which could cut off parts of southern Lebanon from the rest of the country.

Katz has also threatened to seize territory in the southern area in an effort to uproot Hezbollah.

Geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim said Israel appears to be using “coercive diplomacy” and expressing a willingness to hold direct talks with Lebanon in the coming days.

“Israel is applying the Daheyia Doctrine, which uses overwhelming, disproportionate force against civilian infrastructure in areas controlled by Hezbollah to deter future attacks,” said Ben-Ephraim. “However, they plan to use this increasingly against Lebanese infrastructure to coerce Lebanon into a deal.”

“There is no clear exit strategy for this war. While in theory Israel is trying to coerce Lebanon into disarming Hezbollah, it is unlikely that can happen,” he said.

US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) emphasized that the expanded ground operation in Lebanon is one of several crises unfolding as a result of President Donald Trump’s decision to launch attacks against Iran with Israel.

“A broader, regional war is breaking out,” said Murphy. “Trump has no endgame. Iran and its proxies can create chaos indefinitely.”

“All of this was totally foreseeable,” he added. “Frankly, it’s why previous presidents weren’t so stupid to start a war like this. Trump has lost control of the war. His best course now is to cut his losses and end it. That’s the only way to prevent an even bigger disaster.”

Original article by Julia Conley republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

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Continue ReadingIsrael Says IDF Will Stay in Lebanon for Months as It Expands Ground Invasion in South

Trump fell into Iran’s trap

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United States President Donald Trump departs the White House en route to Hebron, Kentucky in Washington DC, United States, on March 11, 2026. [Celal Güneş – Anadolu Agency]

by Tamer Ajrami

President Trump is not only failing to learn from history. He is also failing to learn from what is happening right now.

This was not a small tactical mistake. Trump walked into a war with no exit plan, then realised too late that Iran had set the battlefield for a war of exhaustion, not a quick victory. Washington is now stuck between two costly choices: it cannot pull back because that would look like failure, and it cannot go deeper because that risks a long war with no guaranteed results.

As the war moves into its third week, harder questions are rising inside Washington: what does “victory” even mean; and how can it be achieved while Iran still holds the strongest pressure point in this confrontation: the Strait of Hormuz?

The Strait of Hormuz is Trump’s weak point

Trump’s biggest miscalculation was believing that firepower alone could force Iran to surrender before Iran turned Hormuz into a global pressure tool. Reality is different. Control of the strait is not an American decision. It is an Iranian one.

READ: US spent $12B since start of strikes on Iran, says White House economic adviser

And the worst part is that disruption does not require a large army in the traditional sense. One incident, one strike (by an Iranian soldier on a small boat, with an RPG on his shoulder), or even a rise in perceived risk can panic markets and push up oil prices, shipping insurance, and transport costs.

That puts Washington in a double trap:

If it declares “mission accomplished” and withdraws while Hormuz is still under threat, it will look like it lost the war economically.

If it escalates to force the strait open, it enters a wider war with higher costs and no clear guarantees.

The Israeli promise that pulled Washington into trouble

A major part of the trap was set before the first strike. The war was built on an Israeli assumption: if Iran’s top leadership is hit, the state will collapse and the public will rise in the streets to bring down the system. This was sold to Trump as a shortcut: one decisive blow, rapid internal collapse, and political change without a long war.

That assumption failed. The system did not collapse, and the streets did not explode as expected. Iran reorganized leadership quickly and blocked any political vacuum that outsiders were counting on. This has also created tension inside the alliance. Washington wants to focus on Iran and Hormuz. Israel pushes to widen the war, including major escalation in Lebanon. That spreads military and political effort and raises the cost.

The Gulf wants a quick win, but the war is not in Trump’s hands

Some Gulf states want a fast end; on Washington and Tel Aviv’s terms; because they see that as the return of stability and manageable energy prices. That creates political pressure on Trump to intensify strikes. 

But more strikes do not solve the Hormuz problem. Firepower can destroy targets, but it cannot restore market confidence overnight, and it cannot stop Iran from keeping the strait under constant risk.

Worse still, a prolonged war may open other maritime fronts, such as Bab al-Mandab. That would mean the crisis moves from one chokepoint to another; from one shock to the next.

Conflicting goals: Open Hormuz or SOLVE the nuclear file?

Washington is now trying to achieve two competing goals:

  • Secure the Strait of Hormuz enough to calm markets. And, 
  • Deal with nuclear materials and enriched uranium stored in complex, fortified sites.

But talk of a “quick solution” to the nuclear issue points to dangerous scenarios: forces on the ground, technical operations, long timelines, and huge risks. This brings Washington back to the same problem: Trump entered expecting a short campaign, then found himself facing a war that demands costs he does not want to pay.

READ: Iran: We did not ask for negotiations or ceasefire

The real exhaustion: Weapons, defenses, and endless involvement

A war is not measured only by how many strikes are launched. It is measured by what is burned each day: air defences, expensive ammunition, and the political room to keep going.

As attacks continue, the key questions become: can Washington sustain this pace? Can its allies absorb the economic and security backlash?

Iran, meanwhile, is betting on time. It does not need to defeat the US militarily. It only needs to keep the war going long enough to turn it into a global burden: higher oil prices, higher inflation, weaker investment, and a political crisis inside Washington that cannot be covered by victory speeches.

Therefore, Trump entered a war with no exit

Trump fell into Iran’s trap because he bet on a quick collapse that never happened, and he tried to “close the file” by force without having the tools to close it. Now he faces a clear dilemma:

  • He cannot declare victory while Hormuz remains under pressure.
  • He cannot end the war without concessions, guarantees, or a settlement.
  • And every new escalation risks wider fronts and deeper economic damage.

This is not a war that will be decided by tough speeches. It will be decided by who can carry the cost longer. Iran, at least so far, is trying to make that cost global, not local, and to show that in this war, economics may be stronger than missiles in deciding when it ends.

OPINION: The war on Iran started with missiles, but oil price can end it

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

This work by Middle East Monitor is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Continue ReadingTrump fell into Iran’s trap

Iran refutes Trump’s claim it sought ceasefire with US and Israel as chaos continues

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https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/iran-refutes-trumps-claim-it-sought-ceasefire-us-and-israel-chaos-continues

A fire and plume of smoke rise after, according to authorities. debris from an intercepted Iranian drone struck an oil facility in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, March 14, 2026

IRAN denied today that it had called on the United States and Israel to cease fire as the war in the Middle East continued to spread death and destruction.

US President Donald Trump claimed on NBC News that Iran had wanted to make a deal to end the US-Israeli assault, but that he had refused to negotiate because “the terms are not good enough yet.”

He did not specify what those terms should be, but he did say that Iran must commit to abandoning its nuclear ambitions, which the two countries were already discussing in high-level talks before the US and Israel launched their surprise attack on February 28.

Iran’s response has been to launch drone and missile strikes on Israel and Persian Gulf states that host US forces or are otherwise allied with Washington, while also blocking ships from sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, halting the follow of fossil fuels and global trade.

At the weekend, Mr Trump called on Britain, France, China and other nations to help reopen the strategic waterway. He claimed today that several countries had committed to do so, but he has yet to name them.

The US president also said that his country’s forces may bomb Kharg Island, where Iran’s most important oil export facilities are located, again “just for fun,” after the US targeted military installations there on Friday.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS News: “No, we never asked for a ceasefire and we have never asked even for negotiation. We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes.

“There are people being killed only because President Trump wants to have fun.”

See the original article at https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/iran-refutes-trumps-claim-it-sought-ceasefire-us-and-israel-chaos-continues

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Continue ReadingIran refutes Trump’s claim it sought ceasefire with US and Israel as chaos continues

Israel-US and Iran War: A geostrategic transformation

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U.S. Navy warplane takes off from the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln during Operation Epic Fury targeting Iran in the Gulf of Oman, on March 01, 2026. [U.S. Navy / Handout – Anadolu Agency]

by Dr Zakir Hussain

After the 12-day war in May last year, it was clear that both sides would be face-to-face soon. They restarted on 28th February 2026. Israel-US adopted the same pattern of targeting the top brass, including the Grand Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the very first day, thinking that in the absence of these officials, the Iranian administration would be like a rudderless ship. This would create confusion and provide an easy opportunity for regime change.

Thirteen days have passed, yet there are no visible signs of either the fall of the regime or a pause or ceasefire. Despite US-Israel’s anguish, Iran selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader – an act of defiance.

Both sides continue to bombard each other’s vital infrastructure, including civilian and military targets. Energy installations such as oil depots and refineries have become primary targets. Under a tit-for-tat policy, Iran has also declared that financial centers, banks, and offices of major technology companies such as Google, YouTube, and Microsoft could be the next targets. Already 26 US bases have been targeted. Following the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the conflict rapidly expanded from a limited confrontation into a regional war, and with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, its effects are now visible in the global economy and in the daily lives of ordinary people. Approximately 130 oil ships are anchored, stopping 20% oil which passes through the narrow strait of 33 km. Already four ships were targeted which tried to bypass the warning.

Among the GCC countries, the UAE faced the highest number of attacks.

Iran’s aggressive response and selection of Mojtaba, a hardliner, as Ayatollah, appear to indicate that Iran is prepared for a prolonged conflict, whereas the United States and Israel seem eager to conclude the war quickly. Meanwhile, President Trump’s plan to send Kurdish Peshmerga into Iran via Iraq seems like another disaster.

READ: Trump says US ‘ahead of schedule’ in Iran war, claims most missiles destroyed

Tehran had been closely and patiently observing military buildups in the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Oman, and the Mediterranean Sea for several weeks. The United States mobilized a substantial part of its defence capabilities, including naval armadas and two aircraft carriers, Abraham Lincoln and Gerald Ford. Hundreds of fifth-generation stealth fighter jets were deployed along with advanced air-defence systems such as THAAD and large stockpiles of interceptors.

In addition, the United States strengthened its military presence across several bases in the Gulf region, including Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq.

Israel also appeared determined to launch what it described as a “fight-to-the-finish” war with the Islamic Republic. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly stated that he had been waiting for such a war for nearly forty years. Iran, on the other hand, has long maintained that it began preparing for such a scenario after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein.

The earlier conflict in May had already revealed the strengths and weaknesses of both sides. However, the current course of the war suggests that the US–Israel alliance underestimated Iran’s military capabilities, particularly its missile and drone systems, careful planning, and effective use of its military resources.

Compared with the US–Israel alliance, Tehran appears to possess a clearer understanding of its adversaries’ strengths, limitations, and operational constraints.

Iran was also aware of its own limitations. Its air force cannot match the capabilities of US and Israeli fighter jets, and its airspace remains vulnerable to aerial attacks. As the conflict expanded, these vulnerabilities became evident. At the same time, the United States and Israel appeared to have an incomplete assessment of Iran’s capabilities. Although they possessed precise intelligence about the locations of Iranian leaders and senior officials—they killed several commanders and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei-they appeared to lack detailed knowledge of Iran’s missile infrastructure, drone networks, and underground silos developed over several decades.

It also appears that the US–Israel side underestimated the possibility of indirect assistance from Russia and China, relying heavily instead on air superiority and defensive shield systems.

Iran’s war strategy

A detailed military assessment would require expert analysis, but developments in the conflict suggest that Iran followed a three-stage strategy.

First, Iran responded to the US-Israel attacks by deploying large numbers of drones, many reportedly stored since 2011 and 2013. These drones forced US–Israel defence systems to respond with expensive interceptors. In financial terms, this created an asymmetric dynamic: Iranian drones costing between $20,000 and $50,000 were intercepted by missiles costing between $1 million and $2 million. As the wave of drone attacks continued, interceptor stocks began to decline, gradually exposing the airspace of US bases and Israel to greater risk.

Second, once defensive systems were strained, Iran launched more advanced missiles targeting radar installations, communication centres, satellites, and data facilities. Reports indicate damage to communication and data infrastructure at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and at military installations in Bahrain. Such attacks disrupted surveillance and communication systems that coordinate missile defence networks such as THAAD, David’s Sling, Arrow, and Iron Dome. Command and monitoring centres that once gathered and transmitted military data across thousands of kilometres became severely limited in their operations.

Third,

Iran escalated its attacks using hypersonic missiles while adopting a tit-for-tat strategy. These strikes targeted refineries, military bases, and strategic infrastructure in Israel. Some reports suggest the use of the Khorramshahr-1 missile equipped with submunitions capable of dispersing dozens of warheads over a wide area, complicating interception efforts.

Meanwhile, attacks on naval assets reportedly forced aircraft carriers operating in the Gulf of Oman to reposition farther from the Iranian coastline.

READ: Two weeks in, Iran strikes inflict nearly $4B in US military losses

Hormuz blockade and its impact

After weakening regional defence systems, Iran announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, through which roughly 20 percent of global crude oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas passes.

At present, around 130 oil tankers are reportedly anchored in the strait. Iran claims effective control over the Hormuz chokepoint.

It has targeted four vessels, including one linked to India, that attempted to pass through. Iran has reportedly deployed underwater tunnels and small, agile boats to intercept or attack ships that violate the blockade.

At the same time, attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the temporary closure of Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas facilities disrupted global energy supplies. As a result, gas prices in Europe rose sharply while crude oil prices increased from about $62 per barrel to more than $100. Some analysts warn that if the conflict continues, oil prices could rise further, potentially reaching $200 per barrel. Such developments could trigger inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and rising unemployment worldwide.

Future of the War

Iran appears determined to pursue its objectives and may not halt operations even if a ceasefire is proposed by the United States or Israel. The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme authority signals continuity of leadership, consolidation of political control, and a claim of legitimacy within the existing system.

Large public gatherings during funeral processions and demonstrations suggest that, at least during wartime, sections of the population have rallied around the leadership.

Reports have also mentioned proposals to deploy Kurdish Peshmerga forces into Iran through Iraq. However, the region’s history suggests that such operations would face significant geographical and logistical difficulties. During the Iran–Iraq War, Saddam Hussein also attempted to advance through the mountainous terrain of the Zagros region but faced serious constraints.

Some Iranian sources have claimed the capture of US special forces personnel and the killing of several Israeli officials during the conflict, although many of these claims remain difficult to verify independently.

Chances of a Ceasefire

Iranian authorities have reportedly outlined three conditions for a ceasefire. First, all military attacks by the United States and Israel must stop immediately. Second, Tehran seeks assurances that such attacks will not be repeated in the future. Third, Iran demands recognition of its sovereignty and compensation for damages caused during the conflict. These conditions are not easy. Who will ensure that the U.S. and Israel would not attack in the future? Second, who will pay the reconstruction cost, etc.? It is true that regional problems can be resolved only when the issue of Palestine is resolved in a fair and just manner. Lebanon and Yemen, Syria also need attention.

Future Trajectory-Palestine solution is the only solution

Even if the present war stops, regional stability will remain uncertain. Long-standing political and security disputes remain unresolved. Israel is unlikely to abandon its strategic objectives, Greater Israel, while tensions involving Hezbollah and Hamas are likely to persist. The United States may also increase pressure on Gulf states to revise their security arrangements so that regional partners become more directly involved in future conflicts.

Implications for India

For India, energy security remains a major concern. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could affect oil supplies and trade routes. Approximately 50% oil passes through the route, while Houthis are there to choke off the Red Sea navigation. 

India must also prepare contingency plans for the evacuation of its 9 million workers from the region and strengthen logistical arrangements to safeguard trade and shipping routes in the event of prolonged instability. Chemical fertilizers are another major concern for India. The region provides the bulk of fertilizers and ensures food security. Disruption in supply line has significantly affected the supply of fresh vegetables, perishable items including agriproducts , poultry and meat products 

In the long term, India is to sign a long term energy agreement with the US. At the same time, India needs a more coherent West Asia policy and must avoid being drawn into the region’s strategic conflicts. The region is sensitive as well as vital to India’s economy and geostrategy. India needs a careful policy.

OPINION: Iran is not Venezuela: Gen-Z would fail to defeat diehard ayatollahs

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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Climate science denier Donald Trump says that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering
Climate science denier Donald Trump says that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering
Donald Trump explains why he established his Bored of Peace
Donald Trump explains why he established his Bored of Peace
Donald Trump warns against following the https://onaquietday.org blog, says that it's easy atm, she only needs to report war crimes supporting Israel's genocidal expansion.
Donald Trump warns against following the https://onaquietday.org blog, says that it’s easy atm, she only needs to report war crimes supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion.
Continue ReadingIsrael-US and Iran War: A geostrategic transformation

The economics behind wars

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People take part in a protest and march gathering at Times Square on Al-Quds Day, to oppose the joint U.S.–Israel war on Iran in New York City, United States on March 13, 2026. [Mostafa Bassim – Anadolu Agency]

by Muhammad Bilal Malik

War is not a violation of the international order. For a select few, it is the international order working exactly as intended; a machine that converts human suffering into corporate profit, political advantage, and generational wealth. The bombs that fall are not random. They are a calculated strategy, and behind every calculation sits a balance sheet.

In 2024, the world’s top 100 arms manufacturers generated a combined $679 billion in revenue; the highest figure ever recorded in human history. American firms alone accounted for $334 billion of that total. That wealth was not created in a vacuum. It was built, contract by contract, on the rubble of Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, geopolitical tensions surged and a war of survival began on both sides. Ukraine rushed westward, particularly toward the United States, for aid and military hardware. What followed was framed publicly as an act of solidarity. What it actually triggered was one of the most profitable procurement cycles in modern American history.

Raytheon’s CEO Gregory Hayes stood before investors shortly after the invasion and declared the conflict would be “very, very good” for the company’s bottom line. He was not speculating. He was reading the market. Raytheon reported a record $180 billion order backlog in the months that followed. Lockheed Martin posted net earnings of $6.9 billion in 2023; a 21 per cent increase over the previous year, while sitting on $160.6 billion worth of unfulfilled weapons contracts. The US arms export figure hit $200.8 billion in fiscal year 2024, up sharply from $157.5 billion the year before.

These are not incidental numbers. They are the architecture of a system; one that political philosopher Max Weber identified more than a century ago. In The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism, Weber argued that Protestant; particularly Calvinist theology provided capitalism with its moral foundation. Wealth, in this tradition, was not greed. It was divine confirmation. Accumulation was virtue. Profit was blessing.

That theological inheritance echoes loudly in the American defence industry today. A $6.9 billion profit is not merely a financial result. Within the cultural logic that shaped Western commerce, it is evidence of righteousness. And every missile fired is not a tragedy to these corporations. It is an invoice, one paid in human blood, invoiced to the taxpayer, and deposited into shareholder accounts.

READ: “Where are we supposed to go?” The road out of Dahiyeh and Lebanon’s forced evacuations

The mechanism that sustains this system is not secret. It operates in full public view, protected by its own normalisation. It is called the revolving door; the seamless rotation of senior personnel between the Pentagon, the US Congress, and the private defence industry.

A 2021 report by the Government Accountability Office found that 1,700 senior US government officials had moved into arms industry positions over just five years. Over 80 per cent of retired four-star generals and admirals went directly onto defence company boards or into lobbying roles, men who spent their careers making war decisions, now paid to ensure those decisions keep coming.

In 2023, Lockheed Martin deployed 65 lobbyists in Washington. 48 of them were former government insiders. The company spent $14 million on lobbying that year alone. Since 2001, the weapons industry has collectively spent more than $2.5 billion lobbying the US Congress; roughly 700 lobbyists per year whispering into the ears of the men who decide where American bombs fall next.

The men who vote for war and the men who profit from war are, with remarkable frequency, the same men. Or they were last year. Or they will be next year.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower understood this danger intimately. In his farewell address of January 1961, he warned the American public of what he called the military-industrial complex, an alliance between the defence industry and the military establishment that, left unchecked, would corrupt democratic governance and manufacture the conditions for permanent war. He was right. The warning went unheeded. The complex grew.

Now observe what is happening in real time because theory without evidence is merely opinion, and the evidence today is overwhelming.

In the final days of February and the opening days of March 2026, the United States and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes against Iran within a single 12-hour operational window. The US military is burning through an estimated $890 million to $1 billion per day in expenditure. Iran has retaliated with hundreds of ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones targeting US bases and Israeli territory. More than 1,700 people have been killed in eleven days of exchanges.

Israel-US and Iran War: A geostrategic transformation

The economic consequences have rippled immediately across the globe. Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war. The Strait of Hormuz: the narrow chokepoint through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply passes is under direct threat of closure. LNG prices in Asia more than doubled in a single week after Qatar Energy declared force majeure at the world’s largest liquefaction facility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 1,000 points in a single session. Global food prices are climbing again, driven by supply chain disruption and fuel cost surges.

Civilians across Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and the Gulf are paying with their lives and livelihoods. And somewhere in Bethesda, Arlington, and the corridors of Capitol Hill, the shareholders are watching the numbers go up.

This is the economics of war in its most brutal form. One conflict. One superpower and its defence industry. One shared outcome, an entrenched elite that profits from permanent conflict, sustained by institutions too compromised, too invested, and too structurally captured to stop it.

The revolving door keeps spinning. The lobbying budgets keep growing. The order backlogs keep lengthening. And with every new conflict, every new theatre of war, every new headline about missiles and drones and civilian casualties, another procurement cycle begins.

The missiles point outward. The money flows inward, upward, always upward, toward the architects of the machine. And the machine, as long as it keeps paying, will never stop.

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