‘Capitalism cares about our species’ prospects as much as a wolf cares about the lamb’s.’ Photograph: Minerva Studio/Alamy
Capitalism cares about our species’ prospects as much as a wolf cares about a lamb’s. But democratise our economy and a better world is within our grasp
We have an urgent responsibility. Our existing economic system is incapable of addressing the social and ecological crises we face in the 21st century. When we look around we see an extraordinary paradox. On the one hand, we have access to remarkable new technologies and a collective capacity to produce more food, more stuff than we need or that the planet can afford. Yet at the same time, millions of people suffer in conditions of severe deprivation.
What explains this paradox? Capitalism. By capitalism we do not mean markets, trade and entrepreneurship, which have been around for thousands of years before the rise of capitalism. By capitalism we mean something very odd and very specific: an economic systemthat boils down to a dictatorship run by the tiny minority who control capital – the big banks, the major corporations and the 1% who own the majority of investible assets. Even if we live in a democracy and have a choice in our political system, our choices never seem to change the economic system. Capitalists are the ones who determine what to produce, how to use our labour and who gets to benefit. The rest of us – the people who are actually doing the production – do not get a say.
And for capital, the purpose of production is not primarily to meet human needs or to achieve social progress, much less to deliver on any ecological goals. The purpose is to maximise and accumulate profit. That is the overriding objective. This is the capitalist law of value. And to maximise profits, capital requires perpetual growth – ever increasing aggregate production, regardless of whether it is necessary or harmful.
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We urgently need to overcome the capitalist law of value and democratise our economy, so that we can organise production around urgent social and ecological priorities. After all, we are the producers of the goods, the services, the technologies. It is our labour and our planet’s resources that are at stake. And so we must claim the right to decide what is produced, how, and for what purpose.
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A woman observes floodwaters from the Sado River covering a street in Alcacer do Sal, Portugal, amid Storm Leonardo on February 5, 2026. (Photo by Patricia de Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images)
Current models “assume the future will behave like the past, even as we push the climate system into uncharted territory,” said the lead author of a new report that’s based on input from dozens of experts.
In a report published Thursday, UK experts highlighted the “growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment,” while also warning that because the “window for preventing catastrophic warming” is narrowing, ambitious action “cannot await perfected models.”
Various scientific institutions concur that 2025 was among the hottest years on record—and the ongoing failure of governments across the globe, particularly the Trump administration, to enact policies that would significantly cut planet-heating emissions from fossil fuels is pushing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C and 2°C goals for this century further out of reach.
The new report from the University of Exeter and the think tank Carbon Tracker Initiative, titled Recalibrating Climate Risk, incorporates the expert opinions of 68 climate scientists from Australia, Austria, Canada, China, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
“Our expert elicitation reveals a fundamental disconnect: Climate scientists understand that beyond 2°C, we’re not dealing with manageable economic adjustments,” said Jesse Abrams, lead author and senior impact fellow at Exeter’s Green Futures Solutions, in a statement.
“The climate scientists we surveyed were unambiguous,” he explained. “Current economic models systematically underestimate climate damages because they can’t capture what matters most—the cascading failures, threshold effects, and compounding shocks that define climate risk in a warmer world and could undermine the very foundations of economic growth.”
Abrams said that “for financial institutions and policymakers relying on these models, this isn’t a technical problem—it’s a fundamental misreading of the risks we face, which current models miss entirely because they assume the future will behave like the past, even as we push the climate system into uncharted territory.”
Communities around the world are already contending with devastating droughts, fires, and storms—and, as another report from researchers at Exeter and the UK’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFOA) pointed out last month, “above 1.5°C, we enter the danger zone where multiple climate tipping points may be triggered, such as the collapse of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, permafrost melt, Amazon dieback, and changes in ocean circulation.”
The IFOA report “warned that when cascading and systemic risks are taken into account, warming of 2°C by 2050 could result in a 25% hit to projected GDP, rising to a halving of projected economic growth between 2070 and 2090,” BusinessGreen editor-in-chief James Murray reported Thursday. “Similarly, a report from consultancy Boston Consulting Group calculated a third of the global economic output could be lost under a scenario where temperatures reach 3°C above preindustrial levels by 2100.”
“The studies stand in stark contrast to some mainstream economic models that have suggested warming of 2°C or more will only reduce projected economic growth by a few percentage points—analyses that have been seized upon by opponents of climate action to argue that decarbonization policies can be dropped or delayed,” Murray noted.
Abrams told the Guardian that some current economic models “are saying we’ll have a 10% GDP loss at between 3°C and 4°C, but the physical climate scientists are saying the economy and society will cease to function as we know it. That’s a big mismatch.”
Laurie Laybourn, a Carbon Tracker board member and executive director of Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, cited another recent report that provides a bleak picture of the current moment and what lies ahead.
“As the UK government’s landmark security assessment of ecosystem collapse showed last week, we are currently living through a paradigm shift in the speed, scale, and severity of risks driven by the climate-nature crisis,” she said. “Yet, beyond this report, there has not been a corresponding paradigm shift in how regulators and government as a whole assess these risks.”
“Instead, they’re routinely underestimated if not missed entirely, meaning many regulations and government action are dangerously out of touch with reality,” she continued. “This threatens disaster when that reality catches up with us. So, it’s critical that policymakers change course, providing clear signals and guidance to markets that these risks should be priced accordingly, rather than downplayed.”
And, as the experts emphasized Thursday, it’s not just policymakers—investors are also still relying on “flawed economic advice,” said Carbon Tracker founder and CEO Mark Campanale. The result is “widespread complacency… with many investors viewing climate scenario analysis as a tick-box disclosure exercise.”
“Until the gap between scientists and economists’ expectations of future climate damages is closed and government bodies act to ensure the integrity of advice upon which investment decisions are made,” he added, “financial institutions will continue to chronically underprice climate risks—meaning that pension funds and taxpayers will remain dangerously exposed.”
Hetal Patel, head of sustainable investment research at Phoenix Group, the UK’s largest and retirement and savings business, said that her firm “supports the report’s call for a more robust and coordinated approach to climate‑risk modeling. Underestimating physical risk doesn’t just distort financial analysis and investment decisions, it underplays the real‑world consequences that will ultimately affect customer outcomes and society as a whole.”
The new report stresses that addressing the “fundamental disconnect between what climate scientists understand about climate impacts and how these impacts are represented in economic models” would require “research investments spanning years,” but rather than simply waiting for better modeling, decision-makers “must proceed on the basis of precautionary risk management, physical climate science, and observed impacts.”
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Stagnating population growth would lead to fewer tax revenues and cause the government to borrow more, according to the thinktank. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Alamy Stock Photo/Alamy Live News.
Jump of £37bn in budget deficit by 2040 would force government to increase taxes, NIESR predicts
The UK economy would be 3.6% smaller by 2040 if net migration fell to zero, forcing the government to raise taxes to combat a much bigger budget deficit, a thinktank has predicted.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said falling birthrates in the UK and a sharp decrease in net migration last year had led it to consider what would happen if this trend continued to the end of the decade.
In this scenario the UK population would stop growing at about 70 million in 2030. The latest official figures showed the UK population was 69.3 million in 2024.
Dr Benjamin Caswell, a senior economist at NIESR, said: “Net zero migration leaves the economy 3.6% smaller by 2040 and this reflects slower employment growth and a smaller workforce.”
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The forecast came after a sharp fall in net migration in 2025, from 649,000 to 204,000 in the year to June, after a tightening of work visa requirements by the Conservative government.
Additional measures by the Labour government around recruiting foreign workers within health and social care may bring down migration further, NIESR said. At the same time, the number of births and deaths in the UK have been more or less equal since the start of the decade, with any change in the UK population being driven by migration.
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Fossil fuel advertising in public spaces will be banned in Amsterdam from May 1, 2026. Credit: World Without Fossil Ads
The world’s largest outdoor advertising company warned city councillors of “far-reaching consequences” hours before the landmark vote.
Amsterdam city council has passed a legally binding ban on advertising for fossil fuels and meat products across public spaces in the city, becoming the first capital in the world to prohibit such ads through local law.
The city council voted 27-17 on Thursday (January 22) to approve the measure, which from May 1 prohibits advertising for high-carbon products and services such as flights, petrol and diesel vehicles, gas heating contracts and meat products across all public spaces in the city, including on buses, trams, and in metro and train stations.
The day before the vote, JCDecaux — the world’s largest outdoor advertising operator, controlling ad space on bus shelters, billboards, and street furniture, all of which are covered by the ban — sent an email to all party groups in the Amsterdam city council, warning the ban would have “far-reaching financial and legal consequences”.
In the email, seen by DeSmog, JCDecaux said it was “deeply concerned” about the proposal and accused councillors of failing to exercise due diligence in preparing the advertising ban, claiming the city had not adequately consulted the industry and created unclear definitions of the restrictions based on “incorrect and incomplete information”.
JCDecaux — which reported global revenues of nearly €4 billion ($4.7 billion) in 2024 — stressed its 40-year partnership with the city and warned that advertising revenue pays for maintenance of public infrastructure. This is a common business model for outdoor advertising companies, which provide and maintain public amenities (such as bus shelters, public toilets, and street furniture) in exchange for the right to sell advertising on them.
In its letter, JCDecaux told city councillors that it manages and maintains 1,500 bus shelters in greater Amsterdam and warned that without advertising revenue these services could come under pressure.
Anke Bakker, Party for the Animals councillor and co-sponsor of the ban, disputed the implication that infrastructure funding was at risk. “I am confident that they will be able to continue filling the advertising space, but with vegetarian and emission-free products,” she said. JCDecaux’s email “illustrates how deeply fossil fuels and meat are rooted in the advertising industry,” Bakker said, adding that there was “widespread support in society” for pro-climate advertising bans.
JCDecaux had not responded to a request for comment at the time of publication.
The ban covers product advertising –– ads for flights, petrol cars, and meat –– but not corporate branding by fossil fuel and aviation companies, which can continue until contracts expire. Fossil fuel companies and other high-carbon industries can still run campaigns in public spaces, as long as they don’t advertise specific products. That continues until Amsterdam’s contract with JCDecaux expires in 2028, after which all corporate advertising will be prohibited under the new terms.
The pushback followed The Hague’s successful defence of its similar legal fossil fuel advertising ban in April this year. Travel industry groups ANVR and TUI sued to overturn The Hague’s ordinance, which prohibits advertising for petrol, diesel, aviation and cruise ships. The court upheld the ban, ruling it complies with EU law and serves a clear public interest in addressing the climate crisis.
“The Hague paved the way for cities to legally install an ad ban for climate-damaging products,” said Rémi ter Haar of campaign group Reclame Fossielvrij, which has spent years pushing for a nationwide fossil fuel advertising ban in the Netherlands.
“That a big city like Amsterdam now follows suit is no small feat and sends the message worldwide that fossil fuel advertising is on its way out, just like tobacco.”
It is not the first time JCDecaux has resisted restrictions on fossil fuel advertising. When Amsterdam first moved to exclude ads on high-carbon products from metro stations in 2020, managing director Hannelore Majoor told Adformatie, a Dutch advertising trade publication, that the measure was “a form of censorship” and complained, “It’s not our role to decide on communication for products that aren’t prohibited.”
‘Drawing a Clear Line’
Advertising for fossil fuel-intensive products and by fossil fuel companies has come under growing scrutiny for normalising climate-damaging consumption and undermining government climate policies.
Multiple Dutch government advisory bodies haverecommended restricting both product advertising (such as for flights and petrol cars) and corporate brand advertising by oil and gas companies as essential climate measures.
The ban goes considerably further than Amsterdam’s landmark 2020 decision to voluntarily exclude fossil fuel ads from metro stations. Unlike voluntary agreements, the ban is written into Amsterdam’s APV – the local ordinance governing public order and safety in Dutch municipalities.
Violations will incur administrative fines, though the specific penalty has not yet been determined. The city expects enforcement to be largely complaint-based, with officials expecting advertising companies to comply without needing enforcement.
A narrow exemption allows businesses to advertise at their own physical premises, meaning a local butcher can display meat promotions in their shop window, but oil and gas companies, and other high-carbon industries cannot buy billboard space across the city –– even to advertise renewable energy initiatives or sustainability programmes.
Creatives for Climate, a global network that coordinated an open letter signed by almost 100 advertising professionals, backed the ban. Community Manager Andrea Mancuso said it represented the industry holding itself accountable: “Advertising doesn’t just sell products, it grants social licence. Our network backed this ban because they know that promoting fossil fuels undermines climate action and public trust.”
The letter noted that Amsterdam’s 2020 commitment to ban fossil fuel advertising in metro stations had “sent a powerful signal” globally but remained “unfinished”, with fossil fuel ads still promoting flights, cruises, high-emission vehicles, and gas contracts across the city. “As the first capital city in the world to legally ban fossil fuel and meat advertising, Amsterdam is drawing a clear line,” Mancuso said.
The city’s metro station ban sparked a global movement, with Sydney, Edinburgh, and Stockholm among the cities to introduce similar voluntary restrictions on municipal advertising spaces.
Several Dutch cities have adopted legally binding bans through local ordinances which prohibit fossil fuel ads, regardless of existing contracts. The Hague was the first to use this approach in 2024. Utrecht and Bloemendaal followed with legal bans in 2025, upgrading their earlier contract-based restrictions.
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As rivers swell and homes are cut off, scientists say UK winter rainfall is already 20 years ahead of predictions
When flooding hit the low-lying Somerset Levels in 2014, it took two months for the waters to rise. This week it took two days, said Rebecca Horsington, chair of the Flooding on the Levels Action Group and a born-and-bred resident. A fierce barrage of storms from the Atlantic has drenched south-west England in January, saturating soils and supercharging rivers.
“It’s déjà vu,” she said. “The stress and anxiety is palpable in the community. We’ve all been here before, we know what happens and it shouldn’t. But since 2014, the weather events are becoming more and more frequent and the rain just dumps now.”
The climate crisis is here and now and this is its face in Britain, scientists told the Guardian. But the devastating impacts are accelerating faster than the work to keep communities protected, they said: torrential winter rains are arriving 20 years earlier than climate models projected. While those forced from homes engulfed by filthy water are suffering today, a darker question is looming: will some settlements have to be abandoned?
Storm Chandra, which pummelled the south-west this week, followed hot on the heels of Storms Goretti and Ingrid. New 24-hour rainfall records were set in places in Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. Setting new records is the new normal in the climate crisis.
Somerset council declared a major incident on Tuesday and across the south-west homes and businesses were flooded, communities cut off, schools closed, trains cancelled and dozens of people were rescued from stranded vehicles.
“These events are getting more frequent and more serious,” said Bryony Sadler, a hairdresser from Moorland, a village on the Levels. She was planning an evacuation of her family and animals when the Guardian spoke to her this week as the waters rose. “The rain is heavier and more intense, the winds stronger.”
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
