Is net zero pushing up our bills? Ruining British industry? A worthless target? We weighed these claims up against the facts
“This is what climate change looks like, here and now,” Andy Burnham said last month, reflecting on a summer of catastrophic fires, drought and heatwave after heatwave. People were left without water, crops failed and emergency services had their busiest summer ever.
And yet with disaster on our doorsteps – and the government now recommending we stockpile in preparation for future extreme weather – there remains a sustained opposition to the UK’s plan to tackle it all: net zero.
In fact, many have doubled down on “ditching net zero” this summer. And in some fringes this is accompanied by claims that our changing climate has nothing to do with human activity. Let’s be clear: this goes against the overwhelming majority of scientists and scientific study.
We’ve already reported on how this sort of straight-up climate denial is creeping back into UK politics. But what about the softer arguments against net zero, those that appeal to people’s anxieties about the cost of living, job losses and the supposed need for pragmatism?
Many of these are also based on fallacies and falsehoods – some of them warping the scientific concept of net zero into something different altogether. Let’s dig into some of the most common myths out there.
‘Net zero is a made-up term’
The UK became one of the first major economies to bring net zero into national law in 2019, under Theresa May’s Conservative government. In a nutshell it means reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 100%, from 1990 levels, by 2050. The “net” part is that some emissions may still exist but are balanced out by removing emissions through carbon sinks, such as tree planting, or technology.
It’s a legal commitment enshrined in an amendment to the 2008 Climate Change Act, and it is based on rigorous climate science.
And yet one of the more common narratives online is that net zero is some arbitrary idea, a figure plucked out of thin air to make us poorer, colder, and plunder our economy. Reform MPs regularly refer to “net stupid zero” and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has called it “political fiction”. Conservative MP Andrew Bowie, who acted as May’s parliamentary private secretary when the target was brought in said in an interview with Politico last year: “What’s quite clear is that the setting of arbitrary targets with no clear plan on how to deliver them does not work for the country.”
Professor Myles Allen from Oxford University is one of the leading scientists on net zero, and has worked on the need for a finite carbon budget for over 20 years. “When I hear politicians saying, ‘I’m not a climate denier, I’m a net zero denier’, that doesn’t make any sense,” he told us. “The implication of that, obviously, is, ‘I’m comfortable with the world warming forever.’”
Key fact: Net zero by 2050 is a legal commitment, rooted in physics and atmospheric science, based on a finite carbon budget to stay within 2 degrees of warming.
‘Net zero is sending our energy bills through the roof’
Energy bills are extremely high, and set to rise further next month when the price cap increases. We are all feeling this. And many – including Reform in its election manifesto and Restore Britain’s energy policy paper – blame net zero for pushing up prices and “crippling our economy”.
But the main culprit has nothing to do with net zero.
Wholesale gas prices – the sums paid by our suppliers when they buy gas in bulk – have skyrocketed since the Iran war. In the last year, they have more than doubled. And our bills, which include a unit cost based on that wholesale price, have risen accordingly. Depending on where you live and the tariff you’re on, you’ll be paying around 7p per kilowatt-hour this September.
But what about electricity – surely that’s unaffected by price shocks in the gas industry?
This is where a concept called “marginal pricing” comes in. It’s a principle of all commodity markets, and it’s where the last available technology sets the price for what all energy suppliers receive. So if all of the UK’s energy demand is met by renewables suppliers (the cheapest option), it’s renewables setting the price. But if renewables aren’t being offered on the markets, or if demand is high, then it’s more expensive options – like gas – that set the wholesale electricity price. (Analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit earlier this year found that wind power had reduced electricity prices by over 30%.)
The last part of the bill is the standing charge. This covers network operating costs, the maintenance of infrastructure, debt recovery and VAT. It also includes costs for some government policies such as social or environmental schemes – but this is a small percentage. So yes, our standing charges are helping pay for net zero. But they are mainly going towards upgrading pipelines and cables or claiming back unpaid bills. And they tend to make up between a fifth and a third of the total bill.
Adam Berman, policy director at Energy UK, the trade body for energy companies, explains that network costs have hugely increased because “successive governments have made the decision to finance our electricity infrastructure entirely through bills”. This is instead of “some balance between bills and general taxation which is what almost everyone else across the OECD does”. And it is this difference which makes our electricity bills more expensive than gas when you compare your two bills side by side.
However, he said: “If we hadn’t invested, in five or 10 years we would be close to the water sector, in that you’d have to be doing massive levels of investment”.
Key fact: Sky-rocketing energy bills are due to extremely high gas prices, which make both gas and electricity more expensive.
‘Net zero is destroying British industry’
Jobs are being lost in the UK’s oil and gas sector in the North Sea, and industries like steel have taken a hammering in recent decades. Reform and the Conservatives have put this down to net zero.
While it is true that the oil and gas industry reports staggering job losses – unions say 1,000 direct and indirect jobs are being lost each month – the reasons are complex. For a start, production in the North Sea has largely been in decline since 1999. Many of the wells and basins are reaching maturity, meaning that the fossil fuels are harder and more costly to extract. And as production has waned, so have jobs. (In fact, new research has shown that even in the small windows when production increased, jobs still declined.)
Losing your job can be a traumatic experience. But there is cause for hope: a recent government analysis found that oil and gas workers’ skills will be in high demand in critical sectors including clean power, construction, defence, advanced manufacturing and life sciences. It found that around 70% of oil and gas workers are already employed in occupations identified as a priority for these sectors. (For more on North Sea oil myths see Carbon Brief’s excellent analysis.)
On the other side, jobs in the UK’s renewable energy sector are growing – and have topped 145,000 for the first time according to a recent report.
Key fact: Oil and gas production in the North Sea has been in decline long before Net Zero, and jobs are declining too. However, renewables jobs are growing, and oil and gas skills are highly sought after in other industries.
‘The UK achieving net zero would make no difference anyway’
The UK’s carbon emissions have been in overall decline for decades and now account for less than 1% of the global total.
There are many variations on this myth: from “How will it make any difference?” to “Why should we make an effort when we aren’t as bad as other countries?” Rishi Sunak said it when he was prime minister in 2023. And Reform MP Lee Anderson last year asked in Parliament: “If the UK went net zero tomorrow, by how much would it reduce the Earth’s temperature by?”
Less than 1% does sound very low. However, we are also the 22nd highest emitter in the world; there are over 160 other countries with lower emissions than us.
And if you add together all the countries accounting for less than 2% of emissions, it comes to just under half the global total. If all of them took the “Why bother?” approach, it would write off our chances of a net zero world.
It’s also important to note that while China, the US and India make up the top three (with 26%, 11% and 8% respectively) this doesn’t tell the full story when it comes to emissions per person. China is the 35th highest country for emissions per capita, way behind the US and all the petrostates. The UK is 83rd, putting us roughly in the middle.
Nor does the 1% figure take into account historic emissions. England was among the first countries to industrialise. Our emissions have risen since the mid-1800s, while other countries’ did not until closer to the end of the century. When you look at historic cumulative emissions from 1750, the UK is the fifth worst offender.
A final caveat: when looking at global emissions the aviation and shipping industries are not included. They are grouped together like a separate country and according to 2024 data count for just over 3% of global emissions. So flights taken by British people don’t count towards the UK’s reported emissions. And British people take a relatively high number of flights.
If anything, the 1% figure is obscuring the fact that the UK is in fact an outsized contributor to global emissions. A net zero UK would make a huge difference to the world.
(None of this is to mention the simple argument that we have a moral duty to clean up after ourselves, regardless of the size of the mess – as summarised by this caller to LBC).
Key fact: The UK is a lower emitting country at less than 1% of global emissions. However there are over 160 low emitting countries and if everyone gave up on net zero that’s around 42% of global emissions.
‘Climate change is happening. Let’s just accept it’
Climate change is certainly happening. Forecasters warn of a “super” El Niño into 2027, with droughts, flash floods and extreme heat likely to get worse.
And yet some instruct us to simply look on the bright side and adapt to the changing world. “When it’s a bit warm, let’s enjoy it,” said Reform’s Richard Tice last month. “And if it means that English wine and sparkling wine gets better and better, fantastic.” A fortnight earlier, Sunday Telegraph editor Allister Heath had written a column titled: “Britain can’t stop climate change. Let’s just embrace a Mediterranean lifestyle.”
Pallavi Sethi, a researcher into climate misinformation at the LSE’s Grantham Institute, described the suggestion that we should simply accept climate change and scrap net zero as “dangerous and misleading”.
Reform’s Richard Tice told a press conference that there is ‘no evidence’ net zero would stop climate changeOli Scarff / AFP via Getty
At Jordan Peterson’s Alliance for Responsible Citizenship conference in London, and most recently Reform’s party conference in Birmingham, participants have raised the need to adopt more air conditioning, like the US.
It is true that we need more money to be spent on adaptation. The Climate Change Committee estimates that we need investments of around £11bn per year of both public and private investment to adapt homes, hospitals, infrastructure and many industries for a changing climate. A recent report states that “the UK was built for a climate that no longer exists today”.
Sethi told us: “Accepting that climate change is happening while giving up on efforts to limit further warming means accepting greater risks, more damage, as well as higher costs in the years ahead.”
However this is not an “either/or” scenario, and increasing temperatures lay bare the increased inequality in the UK. Some people can afford to adapt where they live, installing air con or heat pumps, or planting trees in their garden. Others cannot: they do not have the money, or the agency over Council property or a landlord’s private home. Enjoying England’s vineyards is not for the many.
Key fact: The fact that the climate crisis is already here doesn’t mean we can’t still mitigate it.
Reporter: Grace Murray Deputy Editor: Chrissie Giles Editor: Franz Wild Production Editor: Alex Hess Fact checker: Lydia Morrish
The Bureau has a number of funders, a full list of which can be found here. None of our funders have any influence over editorial decisions or output.
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Heathrow airport wants to build a third runway and new terminals. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Climate Change Committee says government cannot expand airport without requiring aviation industry to clean up its emissions
Heathrow airport should be allowed to expand only if airlines pay for the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, the government’s climate advisers have said.
…
Nigel Topping, the chair of the CCC, said: “The government cannot expand Heathrow airport without requiring the aviation industry to clean up its emissions. Therefore, the government should legislate policies that require the aviation industry to fully address all of their emissions by 2050, either directly or by purchasing engineered removals. The polluter-pays principle must apply.”
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But campaigners rejected the CCC’s plan of relying on nascent technologies to wipe out the impact of an expansion that would commit the UK to much higher emissions for decades, and called on ministers to halt all airport expansion.
Tony Bosworth, campaigner at Friends of the Earth, accused the CCC of “pulling its punches”, pointing to recent research by the Tyndall Centre that found SAF and carbon removals were unproven and unlikely to ramp up in time to the extent needed to justify airport expansion.
“The CCC should have made it crystal clear: there is no plausible way to expand Heathrow without wrecking the UK’s climate targets,” he said.
Frequent flying is overwhelming skewed towards the wealthy. In any year, only about half of people in England take a flight abroad, while about 80% of all flights abroad were taken by people who took two or more flights – about a quarter of the population. Frequent flyers – those who took five or more return flights abroad in 2024 – made up only 5% of the population, but accounted for a third of all flights.
Those in the highest income group took 38% of all flights abroad – four times as many flights as those in the lowest income group, according to the National Travel Survey of England in 2024.
A photo of an empty classroom. Credit: Unsplash(CC0)
Thousands of schools closed their doors, and a third of all pupils were recorded absent in Wales as temperatures hit 37°C.
School pupils in England and Wales lost more than 15 million teaching hours during June’s heatwave, which caused a spike in absences and forced many schools to close their doors or reduce hours over safety concerns.
According to DeSmog’s analysis, at least 760,000 students in the two countries missed lesson time due to school closures. Temperatures broke previous records and parts of the UK reached over 37°C between 23 and 26 June.
Where schools remained open, absences spiked, with absence rates reaching 36.5 percent in Wales on 25 June, the hottest day ever recorded in the country during the month of June.
The heatwave – one of five to batter the UK this summer – lasted for eight days and triggered a red health alert across many parts of the UK, with hospitals forced to cancel operations, workplaces shortening hours, and people warned not to travel. There were nearly 2,900 excess deaths caused by the May and June heatwaves.
The government recommends schools close only as a last resort, when conditions are unsafe. At least 1,730 schools shut their doors or closed early, far more than previously thought, DeSmog’s new analysis showed.
In an email to parents announcing closures, one Oxford school stated: “It reached 30 degrees at 11:30 in some classrooms without children in them”. Other schools reported classroom temperatures over 40°C.
Many other parents opted to remove their children from schools over safety concerns. One parent told DeSmog that she took her five-year-old child out of school after pupils returned home with severe heat rashes.
Where schools remained open, nearly 12 percent of students were absent in England, almost 50 percent higher than the same period in the previous year.
A version of this article was published by The Guardian.
In May, the Climate Change Committee, an independent government advisory body, warned that students would lose an estimated 14 days of learning to extreme heat every year without action to avoid 4°C global warming by the end of the century.
School children in southern England could experience “severe cognitive performance loss for over 80 percent of the spring and summer months,” it said.
Experts told DeSmog that missed school days could come at high costs for school students – from lower exam results to poorer mental health.
Nicola Gray from the University of Huddersfield, who led research into the impact of closures during the Covid-19 pandemic, told DeSmog: “School provides basic social services, social connection, and nutrition [through free school meals]. It provides the qualifications needed for decent housing, a decent job. So much is rooted in the school system.
“We do not want the education and training of our students to dip precisely at the time when they’re gonna need new skills and the best possible futures in a changing climate.”
A spokesperson for the Department for Education (DfE) told DeSmog: “Hot weather can be a struggle, but schools did a fantastic job keeping children learning safely during this summer’s heatwave. Schools put measures in place, so they remained the best place for children to be, even during a heatwave – because every day in school counts.”
The DfE said that it was “investing to make schools more resilient to a changing climate – including through a £710 million Renewal and Retrofit Programme and almost £20 billion to rebuild over 750 schools.”
Spiking Absence Rates
This summer was the UK’s hottest on record, according to provisional data by the Met Office. Extreme heat across Europe and many other parts of the world caused deaths, wildfires, and widespread disruption.
DeSmog collected information on more than 1,700 affected schools based on dozens of national and local news reports, and analysed it using census data to calculate the total number of students impacted by closures.
Neither the government nor local councils currently publish official data on school closures due to extreme weather events. UK councils told DeSmog that schools made individual decisions based on their safeguarding plans.
DeSmog also analysed government data on pupil absences during the heatwave at schools that remained open, which showed a major spike in students missing school time in both England and Wales.
While closures led to over 5.9 million lost learning hours, pupils missed an estimated 9.5 million additional hours due to heat-related absence.
On the hottest day (25 June) in Wales, absence rates were four times the year’s average – and the highest recorded during the year so far – with over a third of all pupils out of school.
Total figures are likely to be a conservative estimate, due to the lack of official data on closures and given government data on absences only covers pupils at state-funded schools up to the age of 15.
Georgia Price*, a mother of two in Sussex, told DeSmog that she decided to keep her son at home rather than sending him to school.
“He spent Tuesday with 30 five-year-olds in one class, with no fan and no ventilation. On Tuesday night, parents on the WhatsApp group were saying that their kids came home with horrendous heat rashes that were remaining overnight,” she said. “He’s not going to be able to learn in an environment like that.”
Deprivation
Closures affected at least 465,000 families, with many more impacted by absences.
Nicola Gray told DeSmog that those on lower incomes would likely be the hardest hit.
“Do students have the internet connection needed for remote learning? Do they have devices? Do they have a private space to work? With the best will in the world, some people may face difficult situations for learning.”
Gloucestershire, Somerset, and Bristol were among the counties worst affected, with 65,000, 48,000, and 46,000 pupils impacted respectively.
Among schools that remained open in England, the highest rate of student absence was seen in the South East, South West, and West Midlands. All three regions saw absence rates reach above 13 percent (double the yearly average).
“School closures can put students in the most deprived areas at a disadvantage,” said Charlotte O’Regan, schools engagement lead at the Sutton Trust, a charity focused on social mobility. “While some schools or parent organisations are able to pay to ensure that their environments are suitable for study, we know that state school leaders are already having to face difficult decisions when it comes to funding.
“We saw a significant widening of the attainment gap during the pandemic, and we have to make sure that the weather doesn’t become yet another barrier holding back those worst off.”
Adaptation
Parents, academics, and campaigners all said that rapid adaptations are needed in schools to keep children safe and able to study in increasing temperatures.
“We should learn from what happened in June,” Georgia Price said. “There are quite simple changes you should make to make it more comfortable. Stagger classes, teach in smaller groups, have portable air-con units.”
Nicola Gray likewise stressed that adaptations were vital for keeping kids in school.
“The best way to have the best life outcomes for our children and young people is for them to be in school. The government could and should have a proactive approach to providing short- and medium-term support,” she said.
Solutions could include changes to school buildings like fitting shutters to keep out the heat, installation of solar panels to power air conditioning and fans, and short-term adaptations like changing school uniform rules and learning in smaller groups, she suggested.
Recent polling commissioned by Global Witness revealed widespread support for such measures. Seventy-five percent of people support the installation of solar-powered air conditioning in schools and hospitals, the polling found.
Unions are also calling for a maximum temperature limit for classrooms such as the one introduced in New York state, which has set a limit of 31°C.
“If you’re not kitted out to make a comfortable environment then you should close,” Price said.
Labour Party chair Bridget Phillipson, who was England’s education secretary during the June heatwave, told Parliament at the time: “We do recognise the need to make sure that as we refurbish and rebuild schools across our country, we make sure that they are well placed to cope with some of the fluctuations in temperature that we’re seeing.”
Phillipson said, however, that in the meantime it was “for school leaders as to how they manage that best”.
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Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage speaking at a Reform UK press conference on 3 June 2024. Credit: Reform UK / YouTube
The Reform UK leader is a vocal opponent of net zero policies, and has questioned the basis of established climate science.
Pro-Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage has announced that he will be standing to be an MP at the upcoming general election and will be replacing Richard Tice as leader of the populist party Reform UK.
Farage, who says that he hopes to become “the voice of opposition” in Parliament, has long been a vocal opponent of climate action and a critic of climate science – campaigning for a referendum on the UK’s 2050 net zero emissions target.
When he was the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the party’s 2015 and 2017 election manifestos pledged to rip up green measures, repeal the UK’s Climate Change Act, withdraw from the 2015 Paris Agreement – the flagship deal to tackle global emissions – and support fossil fuel extraction.
These reflected Farage’s personal views on climate action. In 2015, he told the libertarian website Spiked: “I think wind energy is the biggest collective economic insanity I’ve seen in my entire life. I’ve never seen anything more stupid, more illogical, or more irrational.”
Farage is a presenter on GB News, the right-wing broadcaster that has regularly provided a platform to climate science denial and attacks on green reforms since it launched in June 2021.
Speaking on GB News in August 2021, Farage said that he was “very much an environmentalist” and that he couldn’t “abide things like plastics in our seas, pollution in our rivers.” However, on the issue of climate change, he added: “What annoys me though, is this complete obsession with carbon dioxide almost to the exclusion of everything else, the alarmism that comes with it, based on dodgy predictions and science.”
The world’s foremost climate science body, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has stated it is “unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land”, while scientists at NASA have found that the last 10 years were the hottest on record. Earth’s average surface temperature in 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1880.
The IPCC has also stated that carbon dioxide “is responsible for most of global warming” since the late 19th century, which has increased the “severity and frequency of weather and climate extremes, like heat waves, heavy rains, and drought”.
Farage has been a vocal critic of net zero. He has claimed that the policy is an “act of self harm” and has called for it to be scrapped.
He has said: “It will not bring economic benefits. It will make everybody a whole lot poorer. And yet the lemmings in Parliament are taking us towards an economic cliff,” adding: “I can’t think of an issue on which the public and politicians are more divided.”
In fact, politicians are markedly less in favour of climate action than the general public. New polling by YouGov for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has shown that almost two-thirds (62 percent) of the public believe the best way to achieve energy security is to reduce the use of fossil fuels and instead expand the use of renewable energy, compared to 48 percent of MPs.
The Climate Change Committee, which advises the government on its net zero policies, has estimated that the cost of achieving net zero will be less than 1 percent of UK GDP, while the government independent spending watchdog – the Office for Budget Responsibility – has said that, “the costs of failing to get climate change under control would be much larger than those of bringing emissions down to net zero”.
Farage has also claimed that, “If green technology is going to work, it ought to work without ordinary folk subsidising it” – referring to the government grants and investment dedicated to developing clean energy sources. The UK government has given £20 billion more in support to fossil fuel producers than their renewable energy peers since 2015.
Farage has also spread conspiracy theories about anti-pollution measures being used to control people’s lives.
In a video posted on Twitter, he argued that Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s calls to reduce air pollution by cutting car engine use would pave the way to “climate lockdowns”.
He said: “Mark my words this isn’t going to end with 20mph zones and low-traffic neighbourhoods. No no. This is the beginning of climate lockdowns. We will have, in years to come, days where we’re told we can’t drive, we can’t do this, you can’t do that while Sadiq Khan is leading the way. Remember you heard it here first. Climate lockdowns.”
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue has highlighted how climate lockdown claims are part of “a conspiratorial narrative which claims that global elites are using climate change as a pretext to restrict individual freedoms and civil liberties.”
Farage and Reform UK
Farage used his announcement to state his belief that Labour will win the general election, which will be held on 4 July, and that the Conservative Party has “crushed itself”. With the Tories predicted to lose in a landslide, Farage appears to believe that he can lead a new right-wing movement.
The Reform leader was already a key figure in the party prior to today’s announcement, effectively owning the party as well as serving as its president. Reform operates as a private company without a democratic structure, so Farage’s majority shareholding meant that could have appointed himself as leader at any time.
Despite Farage failing to be elected as an MP when he stood in seven previous general elections, and Reform only winning two councillors in May’s local elections, polls indicate that Farage may succeed in becoming the MP for Clacton.
If this is the case, Farage will be advocating in Parliament for the anti-climate policies that have been proposed by his party.
Reform has called for the UK’s net zero emissions target to be scrapped, and has proposed holding a referendum on the policy – a campaign launched by Farage in 2022.
The party’s policy agenda states that: “Westminster’s net zero plans send our jobs and money overseas, making us net poorer and net colder”, adding that net zero policies are “net stupid”.
The party’s former leader Tice, who will now become its chairman, is a prominent climate science denier. Tice has claimed that “there is no climate crisis”, and has also expressed the view that “CO2 isn’t a poison. It’s plant food”.
Of the £2.5 million that Reform UK has received in donations since the 2019 election, around 92 percent (£2.3 million) of that income has been given by fossil fuel interests, polluting industries, or climate science deniers.
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Faster electrification is the best way to secure lower energy bills and stronger energy security, according to the Climate Change Committee (CCC).
The government’s official climate advisers have stressed the importance of electrification, noting that electric cars and heat pumps can “put money back into people’s pockets”.
Moreover, the UK’s net-zero targets face “significant risks” unless there is faster progress in electrifying cars, heating and industry, according to the CCC’s latest progress report.
The report notes that the government has closed some of the gaps to its upcoming targets and introduced more “credible” plans.
However, challenges remain in the UK’s climate strategy, including accelerating the expansion of heat pumps, cutting emissions from farms and supplying planes with “sustainable” fuels.
The CCC notes that 17% of the emissions cuts required to achieve the UK’s 2030 Paris Agreement climate target are currently not addressed by any government plans at all.
Amid political and industry pressure, the committee also says the government should “stand firm” on its climate goals, including its strategy for encouraging electric-vehicle (EV) sales.
Carbon Brief has covered the CCC’s annual progress reports in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 and 2020.
The report comes at a febrile moment in UK politics, with prime minister Keir Starmer having just resigned and with newly re-elected MP Andy Burnham widely tipped to take his place.
The opposition Conservatives and Reform are lobbying to scrap UK climate goals – and senior Labour figures want to row back on EVs and North Sea oil and gas drilling.
Against that backdrop, the CCC insists that it is the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels – and the secondfossil-fuelprice shock in four years – that has caused a “cost of living crisis”.
Speaking to journalists ahead of the launch, CCC chair Nigel Topping warned against any moves to weaken UK climate policies. He said:
“U-turns are really damaging to inward investment confidence…[We should] hold the course and focus on electrification…which will unlock very significant savings.”
Whereas the CCC said last year it had become “more optimistic” that UK climate goals could be met under the new government, its latest progress report strikes a more cautious tone.
It says that the UK’s emissions fell by 1.8% in 2025 and that there has been “some positive progress” in terms of delivery over the past year, but that this has been “too slow”.
There was actually an increase in emissions from transport and electricity supplies in 2025, as shown below, despite the expansion of clean power and EVs.
UK greenhouse gas emissions by sector, million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Source: CCC 2026 progress report.
The UK’s greenhouse gas emissions are now roughly 50% below 1990 levels, the CCC notes, with the lion’s share of this having come from cleaning up the power sector.
In contrast, there has been far less progress in transport, which is now the UK’s largest emitter, as well as in buildings, the second largest.
The CCC stresses that future emissions cuts will need to come from using clean power to decarbonise other sectors – particularly buildings, transport and industry.
It puts a major emphasis on the need to electrify these sectors by more rapidly rolling out EVs, heat pumps and electric heating for industrial sites.
The CCC adds that government plans for meeting future targets, published last year, leave a “significant gap” to the UK’s international climate pledge for 2030. (See: Policy gaps.)
The most striking aspect of this year’s report is the way it centres on electrification, which the CCC says has been given “insufficient focus” to date.
Electrification has shot up the agenda in recent months, with the COP31 presidency calling for countries to back a global goal for 35% of “final” energy to come from electricity by 2035.
The text of the CCC’s latest report uses the word “electrification” far more often than previous editions, as shown in the figure below.
Number of times the word “electrification” appears in successive CCC progress reports, average per 10 pages. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of CCC reports.
Early last year, in advice on the seventh carbon budget, the committee singled out electrification as key to cutting UK emissions. It said electrification had won out over alternative options, thanks to rapid cost reductions for technologies such as EVs.
Now, the CCC says that electrification is also the best way to secure lower energy bills, stronger energy security and a host of other benefits.
Topping said these benefits include “putting money back into people’s pockets”, but also cleaner air, stronger energy security and protection from fossil-fuel shocks:
“The prize is really significant here. By 2030 alone, the UK could save up to 80m barrels of oil and 1.5bn therms of gas each year. That would cost almost £8bn at current oil and gas prices.”
The emphasis on the topic is also clear in the CCC press release for its report, which is titled: “Faster electrification would cut UK household bills, say climate advisers.”
The report fleshes this out in a dedicated chapter that explores the financial benefits of electrifying household energy use, including heat and transport.
Topping said that the “home of the future” will be equipped with an EV, a flexible “time-of-use tariff” for its electricity supplies and a heat pump for keeping warm.
Moreover, the report shows that even today, this type of household would cut its annual energy bills by around £1,200, relative to using a petrol car and a gas boiler.
Crucially, this saving, shown in the figure below, includes the high upfront costs of installing an electric heat pump and solar panels. The analysis shows that electrified homes have far lower annual running costs, which easily outweigh this initial outlay.
(Due to “modelling limitations”, the CCC analysis does not consider home batteries, which can help unlock even larger savings.)
Household energy costs for heat, power and transport, £ per year. The upfront costs of purchasing cars, heating systems, chargers and solar panels are annualised. Source: CCC progress report 2026.
The CCC says that while not everyone is currently in a position to enjoy the financial benefits of electrification, its analysis points to savings both before and after the Iran crisis, as well as for high- and low-income households, with the latter eligible for grants to cover upfront costs.
Even more homes would be able to unlock these benefits if the government acts to resolve barriers, such as high public charging costs, says the CCC.
However, the report says that the government’s current plan to electrify the economy “lacks ambition” and that there are “worrying signs” in some areas, such as heat pumps and electric vans. (See: Road transport and Buildings.)
Ultimately, says the CCC, the best way to encourage faster and wider electrification is to make electricity cheaper. This has been its top recommendation for several years.
The CBGD “projects slower emissions reductions for surface transport and buildings compared to the previous government’s plan”, according to the CCC.
This reflects both the slow rollout of some technologies – such as heat pumps – and “areas of reduced policy ambition”, including less support for low-income homes to install insulation.
The CCC says that without “sufficient progress on electrification” this year, the UK’s 2030 emissions target “may become out of reach” and future goals would face “significant risks”.
The chart below demonstrates the CCC’s view that the UK is “well on track” to meet its fourth carbon budget, between 2023 and 2027, and that there are “credible policies in place” to meet the fifth carbon budget out to 2032.
However, it also shows the “significant gap” that the CCC says still exists between projected emissions cuts (blue lines) and the UK’s international climate target for 2030, its nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement (black circle).
(This is particularly notable as the NDC was the first official UK climate goal that was aligned with its 2050 net-zero target. The fourth and fifth carbon budgets were set before the net-zero goal and therefore need to be overachieved.)
Plans that are “credible” or only come with “some risks” are on track to cut emissions to 356m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030. This is 11MtCO2e lower than last year, but still a shortfall of 64MtCO2e.
UK greenhouse gas emissions, including international aviation and shipping (IAS), MtCO2e. Lines show historical emissions (black) and the UK’s “carbon budget indicative pathway” from the CBGD (red). Projected emissions are shown under what the CCC defines as “credible” policies (dark blue); credible policies, plus those with “some risk” (light blue); and policies that are credible, have some risk or “significant risk” (purple). The dotted black line indicates the trajectory for emissions before any net-zero policies were implemented. The dotted red line indicated an example trajectory to reach the target of net-zero emissions by 2050. Legislated carbon budget levels are shown as grey steps, including the suggested level of the seventh budget for 2038-42. The first five budgets did not include IAS, but “headroom” was left to allow for these emissions (darker grey wedges). Source: CCC 2026 progress report.
Overall, the CCC says there are “credible” plans in place for 44% of emissions reductions by 2030, including those linked to renewable energy, EV sales growth and electrification of steel production at Port Talbot in Wales. Another 15% of reductions come with “some risks”.
The report concludes that there are “significant risks” attached to 19% of emissions cuts, including the expansion of heat pumps, future “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF) supply and agricultural policies.
There are also 4% of required emissions cuts for which the UK has “insufficient plans”, including much of the electrification of the UK’s heavy industry.
The chart below shows how this assessment compares to previous CCC analysis of government plans, with the share of “credible” government plans increasing.
(As the latest report is based on the new CBGD rather than the previous 2023 plan, the assessments have different levels of baseline emissions and are not directly comparable. However, this chart shows the rough direction of travel.)
Share of emissions cuts needed to hit the UK’s 2030 climate goal that are rated by successive CCC reports as being backed by “credible” policies, or that face “some” or “significant” risks to delivery, or where there are “insufficient plans”, %. The chart also shows the share of emission cuts required that are “not covered” by the government plans. Source: Carbon Brief analysis of CCC reports.
As the chart shows, a substantial chunk of the required emissions cuts need to meet the 2030 pledge – 17% of the total – are not covered by the CBGD.
This reflects the fact that the new plan simply does not achieve the 2030 target, according to the CCC, despite the government’s stated commitment to its NDC goal.
(The government’s plan had also acknowledged that it fell short of meeting the 2030 NDC.)
The CCC emphasises that “the government will need to bring forward additional policies and plans to make up this gap”.
The new report suggests several areas – including faster EV growth, more heat-pump installations and more ambitious recycling rates – that would close 17MtCO2e of the 26MtCO2e gap to the 2030 goal.
Unlike the 2030 NDC, the government’s plan does achieve the sixth carbon budget, between 2033 and 2037. However, the committee says “this is largely achieved through additional measures where we have assessed there to be significant risks or insufficient plans”.
Only around three-fifths of the required emissions cuts for the sixth carbon budget are covered by “credible” plans or plans with “some risks”.
According to the CCC, the government is relying on a rapid scale-up of engineered removals beyond 2030, but has provided little detail about how it will achieve this. (See: Other sectors)
“This approach carries substantial risks,” according to the committee.
Road transport remains the UK’s highest emitting sector and its emissions increased by nearly 3% last year, according to provisional data in the CCC report.
Electric-car sales have continued increasing, reaching nearly a quarter of new sales last year. The number of electric cars on the road surpassed 2m in May 2025.
However, the emissions benefit of this rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) “is likely to have been offset by other factors”, such as driving rates returning nearly to pre-Covid levels, according to the CCC.
The report notes that EV costs “continue to fall” and have met price parity in some parts of the market, with grants providing an extra boost to sales.
The committee’s pathway to net-zero assumes faster emissions cuts from road transport than the government’s pathway. This is largely because it assumes an imminent “tipping point” will be reached, when EVs reach upfront price parity with petrol cars.
Nevertheless, the report says that sales will still “need to accelerate fast” over the next few years and that this will require consistent government support.
There have been reports that the government is planning a “U-turn” after a review of the ZEV mandate. The CCC says it is “essential” that the review “does not lead to further concessions”:
“Doing so would severely undermine prospects of achieving the UK’s 2030 NDC, exacerbate the UK’s dependence on imported oil, and leave more households paying the higher costs of petrol or diesel cars.”
As well as “stand[ing] firm” on the ZEV mandate, the committee says it is important that the government “remove[s] barriers to EV adoption”.
One key policy highlighted by the report is increased access to cheap EV charging, so the one-third of UK homes without off-street parking access can “benefit from lower running costs”.
(CCC analysis suggests that while the average home would save at least £660 a year by switching from a petrol car to an EV, their running costs could actually increase if they have to rely on public charging infrastructure.)
The report also stresses the use of EV “time-of-use tariffs”, which it says can help people save even more money. It notes that “measures to support consumer awareness” of this “could drive further uptake”.
Also, with a new 3p per mile EV tax due to start from April 2028, the committee says it is “essential that this new tax is implemented in a straightforward manner” to minimise the “hassle factor” that could disrupt the EV transition.
While electric-car sales have so far remained slightly ahead of the level needed to hit the ZEV mandate, the CCC notes that both electric van sales and prices are “significantly off track”. Unlike cars, electric vans still cost considerably more than their combustion-engine equivalents.
The committee says government support, including improved access to fast charging and “regulatory reforms”, is also “key”. As an example of the latter, it notes that certain licensing and testing requirements are based on vehicle weight, which puts heavier battery-powered vehicles at a disadvantage.
Finally, the CCC criticises recent policy decisions that incentivise sales of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) “based on emissions factors which underestimate real-world emissions”. It notes:
“Providing incentives for emissions savings that PHEVs do not deliver distorts the market and risks eating into the demand for EVs.”
The CCC says that the rate of growth in heat-pump installations in homes slowed last year, rising just 7%, compared to the 56% jump seen in 2024.
Around 52,000 heat pumps were installed in 2025, according to the report. Of these, 31,200 were installed with the support of grants from the “boiler upgrade scheme”.
This was not enough to meaningfully reduce emissions, says the CCC, only delivering around 0.1MtCO2e of extra savings in 2025.
(To eliminate emissions from homes by 2050, heat pump installations in existing homes need to reach 1.4m per year by 2035, according to the CCC.)
Overall, emissions from the buildings sector fell by 1.2MtCO2e in 2025, amounting to a reduction of 1.3% for non-residential and 1.6% for residential buildings compared to 2024.
This was despite the winter months being colder in 2025 than the previous year, generally meaning greater heating demand. This suggests factors other than weather are driving the reduction, it says, such as higher energy prices leading to lower heating use.
The CCC notes that while emissions did drop, this “does not indicate progress on decarbonising home heating”. It adds:
“Without further actions to decarbonise buildings, it is likely that emissions will rebound if energy prices fall or weather conditions revert to average.”
The slowdown in the rate of heat pump installations was largely due to the closure of the ECO scheme, which delivered around one-third of heat pump installations in existing homes over the last three years.
In terms of government policy, the CCC notes that there has been some “positive progress” for buildings, due to the new “warm homes plan” and the “future homes standard”.
The former provides support to help people install electric heat pumps, rooftop solar panels and insulation. In total, 5m homes are expected to benefit from £15bn of grants and loans earmarked by the government for these upgrades by 2030.
While installation rates in the UK in 2025 were significantly below this level, the CCC report says that growth rates in other European markets – and indeed, in the UK between 2023 and 2024 – suggest that higher rates could be achievable.
The CCC notes that while there is £1bn a year earmarked for supporting upgrades of low-income households under the warm homes plan, this is still a “significant decrease in investment” from that provided by ECO.
The future homes standard, meanwhile, is an update to existing regulations in England. From March 2028, new-build homes in England will be required to have on-site renewable energy generation and a low-carbon heating system.
From then on, newly built homes will produce 75% less greenhouse gas emissions than under previous regulations.
The CCC report notes that the installation of heat pumps in new homes, specifically, is currently on track to achieve targets, with 25% of new homes built with a heat pump in 2025. However, it says retrofit installations of existing homes are significantly below where they need to be and “urgently need to accelerate”.
The CCC notes that while there has been some progress in removing policy costs from household electricity bills, the ratio of electricity to gas prices remains a major barrier to heat pump take-up. (See: The electrification ‘prize’.)
It also notes that there has been no action to address this barrier for non-residential buildings.
Fewer than 2% of homes have a heat pump in the UK, it says, placing the nation among the lowest rates of installation in Europe, as seen in the chart below.
Heat pump market share vs electricity-to-gas price ratio in Europe in 2024. Credit: CCC.
Industry accounted for the largest share of emissions reduction in the UK in 2025, according to the CCC, with a 5.4MtCO2e (12%) drop from 2024.
As such, sectoral emissions for industry are now 56% lower than they were in 2008.
This was largely due to the closure of blast furnaces at the Port Talbot steelworks towards the end of 2024, ahead of reopening with new electric arc furnaces. Emissions from iron and steel production therefore fell by 3.2MtCO2e year-on-year in 2025, according to the CCC report.
The rest of the reduction was due to a fall in the output of energy-intensive, which the CCC says is in line with the longer-term trend in UK manufacturing seen since the 1990s.
However, the CCC notes that while some specific progress has been made to decarbonise industry, barriers to further progress remain.
It urges the government to set a clear plan for how electrification can become the economically rational choice for a wide range of industries.
As for buildings, the CCC points to the high electricity prices, relative to gas, as a major barrier to the decarbonisation of UK industry.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has taken some “positive steps”, according to the report. This includes the government allocating £9.4bn of funding to support its development.
There has also been a final investment decision for the first CO2 storage facility at a UK manufacturing site and the construction of transport and storage infrastructure for the nation’s first CCS industrial “clusters”.
The CCC’s report states that “many countries are responding” to the current global energy crisis triggered by the Iran war by “rapidly reducing dependency on fossil fuels”.
It continues that emissions from the UK’s fossil-fuel supply sector fell by 1.5MtCO2e in 2025, in line with the “significant historical decline seen over the last three decades”.
Emissions in the sector are now 45% lower than 2008 levels, it adds.
Key drivers of emissions decline from 2024-5 were a fall in emissions from oil refining of 0.9MtCO2e, mostly due to the closure of Grangemouth and Prax Lindsey refineries in 2025, according to the CCC.
Aerial view of industrial complex with towering chimneys and storage tanks under a hazy sky, Grangemouth, Scotland, United Kingdom. Credit: Andy Smith / Alamy Stock Photo
Declines in production emissions associated with oil and gas were due to the closure of North Sea fields “as they reach the end of life”, says the report.
It adds that this is a “continuation” in a longer-term trend. Production emissions from oil and gas have fallen by 58% since 2008 and by 75% since their peak in 2000. The CCC continues:
“The decline in oil and gas production is expected to continue as oil and gas reserves in the mature North Sea basin are increasingly depleted – the NSTA [North Sea Transition Authority] projects a further decline in combined oil and gas production of 93% by 2050.”
The report does not directly address the Labour government’s policies on oil and gas production in the North Sea.
Labour has ruled out new oil and gas licences – a manifesto commitment that has been subject to intense lobbying from the oil and gas industry and right-wing media. (See Carbon Brief’s factcheck on nine false or misleading myths about the North Sea.)
Speaking at a briefing for journalists, CCC chair Nigel Topping noted that oil and gas production is projected to continue to plummet in the coming decades, regardless of whether the government issues new drilling licences, adding:
“The real road to energy security is not through some marginal drilling decisions, but through electrifying the economy.”
Emissions from electricity supply rose in 2025, following a 5% increase in unabated gas generation year-on-year.
According to the CCC, this offset the reduction in emissions from coal, with the closure of the UK’s last coal-fired power plant in 2024.
This is in line with Carbon Brief’s analysis from January, which similarly found that there was a small increase in emissions per unit of generation in 2025.
This bucks the trend seen in the UK since 2008, over which period emissions from electricity supply have fallen by 82%.
The CCC says the rise in gas generation was likely due to a combination of factors, including a 12% drop in nuclear generation, an 11% decrease in net imports, underutilisation of wind capacity due to grid constraints and lower-than-average wind capacity additions.
Last year, offshore wind capacity increased by 0.7 gigawatts (GW), bringing the UK’s total to 16.6GW, according to the CCC.
This is expected to more than double to around 37GW by 2032, once the existing pipeline of new projects is built – including those that secured subsidies in the most recent auction for “contracts for difference” (CfDs).
The CCC notes, however, that further additions will be needed to reach the government’s “stretching goals” for offshore wind.
An additional 0.3GW of onshore wind capacity was added in 2025, bringing the national total to 16.4GW. It says between 2.1GW and 2.5GW will need to be added annually up to the end of the decade to meet government targets.
The UK installed more solar capacity in 2025 than in any year since 2015, adding 2.8GW to bring the national total capacity to 21.7GW.
To reach government targets, the CCC says installation of solar power still needs to increase, with around another 5GW required by the end of this decade.
The CCC highlights that faster progress is needed on expanding and modernising electricity networks, as well as deploying storage.
For example, in 2025, some 9.4 terawatt hours (TWh) of wind generation was “curtailed” – when windfarms are paid to turn off – up 77% on 2024.
The CCC’s report says “emissions in agriculture and land use have not fallen significantly in recent years” and that progress addressing this has been “too slow”.
Cattle and sheep numbers fell by 1% and 2% respectively in 2025, continuing a longer-term trend, with livestock numbers at their lowest since 1990, says the report.
This has led to a reduction in methane emissions from 2022-24, but this was offset by an increase in CO2 emissions in these sectors. It continues:
“This was in part driven by a smaller forestry sink due to an ageing woodland profile and removal of trees for habitat restoration priorities.”
The report adds that household beef and lamb purchases fell by 5% in the last year and have dropped by 9% since 2021, likely “driven by high beef and lamb prices and cost-of-living pressures”.
It continues that one area of “positive progress” is an increase in peatland restoration rates.
Some 21,400 hectares of peatlands were restored in 2025 – a 26% increase on the previous year and around three times the level in 2020, according to the CCC.
It adds that there is grant funding in place for peatland restoration across the country “until at least 2027”.
Tree-planting has seen “more mixed” progress, says the report. Planting rates fell by 25% from 2024-5, following a large boost to forest creation the year before.
The reduction was “driven by funding cuts in Scotland, which continues to lead in the establishment of new woodlands for the UK, planting more than half of the total in 2024-25”, says the report.
It adds that planting rates increased in England and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) is expected to launch a woodland creation strategy this year.
Despite this mixed progress, the chart below shows how the UK government is “on track” on most key agriculture and land use indicators, when compared to the CCC’s central pathway to net-zero and the government’s own ambitions.
The UK government is “on track” on most key agriculture and land use indicators when compared to the CCC’s central pathway to net-zero and the government’s own ambitions. Credit: CCC (2026)
The report says that another area of “positive progress” is the publishing of England’s long-awaited land-use framework in March of this year.
The framework used “high-resolution modelling” and found that there is enough land in England to meet climate and nature goals, while also producing more food and building new homes.
To increase progress, the report says that the government should “put policies and incentives in place to ramp up tree-planting and peatland restoration”.
One key upcoming policy development will be the “25-year farming roadmap”, the government’s long-term direction for farming in England. This is due to be published later this year, according to the CCC.
Emissions from flights fell by 0.5% in 2025, despite a 3% increase in overall distance flown by UK passengers.
The CCC says this is likely due to fuel-efficiency improvements within the nation’s aircraft fleet and “a small contribution” from the use of “sustainable aviation fuel” (SAF).
The report concludes that fuel-efficiency improvements are “almost on track” compared to the CCC’s net-zero pathway. The share of jet fuel provided by SAF reached 2.5% in 2025, which is above the level set by the government’s SAF mandate.
While people flew more last year, the overall distance travelled via planes is still below the projected levels in the CCC’s pathway for 2025.
The committee says emissions growth from aviation has “slowed down”, but notes that “it is too early to say whether aviation emissions will grow, plateau or decrease in the future”.
Overall, the CCC says there has been “mixed progress” in the aviation sector. This year’s SAF Act included a mechanism designed to drive domestic production of SAFs, but the report stresses that “significant challenges remain around scaling up supply”.
Meanwhile, for the first time, the government plans to use international carbon credits under CORSIA – the UN’s aviation emissions scheme – to deliver its sixth carbon budget. According to the CCC:
“This introduces significant risk, including uncertainty over the availability and quality of high-integrity credits.”
As for shipping, the CCC says this has seen “limited progress”. It welcomes the inclusion of domestic shipping in the UK emissions trading scheme (ETS) as “an important step”, but points out that this is only a small fraction of the sector.
Most emissions come from international shipping. The committee says delays to the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net-zero framework – following opposition from the US and big fossil-fuel producers – has “significantly increased” the risk of hitting emissions targets for this sector.
The CCC report highlights “significant risks” with the use of engineered removals in the coming years.
The government’s plan for achieving emissions targets over 2033-37 relies on a “rapid ramp-up” of technologies that suck CO2 out of the atmosphere, the report says, but there is still a lack of detail on how this will be achieved.
During this period, the amount of CO2 removed through these technologies is expected to reach an average of 17.4MtCO2e per year.
But the CCC says that 94% of removals planned for 2033-37 have “significant risks or insufficient plans”.
There is greater confidence in achieving planned removals over 2028-32, the report says, but this is due to scaled-back plans and policy progress.
The CCC says it is “essential” for the government to develop a strategy for delivering and monitoring engineered removals, along with “sufficient contingency plans…for any shortfall”.
The report also looks at emissions from waste, which are expected to reduce by an average of 1.1MtCO2e per year between 2024 and 2037.
The CCC has greater confidence in the government’s ability to meet waste goals compared to last year’s assessment.
But the report notes that there has been “little improvement” in recycling rates in UK homes. It says that further policies will be needed to meet plans to reduce waste, boost recycling and prevent waste going to landfill.
Looking at hydrogen, the CCC says there has been “good progress” in developing low-carbon hydrogen, but risks remain due to tight timelines and delays in funding.
The report mentions missed or upcoming deadlines to award contracts for some hydrogen projects and to update the UK hydrogen strategy. It notes that progress on hydrogen “must continue on the ground” in the meantime.
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