Tag: droughts

  • EXPANDED and UPDATED: Zack Polanski’s ‘reality check’ to the Prime Minister: act now on extreme heat emergency

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    At a press conference today, Zack Polanski delivered a ‘reality check’ to the Prime Minister as he sounded the alarm on the emergency of extreme heat and outlined three immediate actions he would take to tackle the crisis.

    After highlighting the multiple threats we face – to our safety, our food and water supply, and our way of life – Zack called for action to keep people cool and safe, taxes on oil and gas giants to fund our fire services, and public ownership of water to end the failed experiment of privatisation.

    Zack was joined on stage by an ex-soldier and engineer, a doctor, and a firefighter, who described the consequences of extreme weather they had seen in their work – as well as broadcaster and environmental campaigner Chris Packham who warned of the present and future risks of the climate crisis.

    “Trees reduced to charcoal”

    Zack started his press conference with a vivid description of the consequences of the extreme heat that has hit the UK this year.

    The day before he had witnessed the aftermath of the devastation caused by a wildfire in Oxfordshire.

    “Trees reduced to charcoal. Cars turned to burnt out wrecks. The smell of smoke still lingering in the air, on the site of what was once a thriving local business – now reduced to ash.

    “Wildfires. Literal scorched earth. And that looming sense that this is only the beginning.

    “These days feel exceptional, but what we’re living through right now are likely some of the least extreme summer temperatures we’ll experience in our lifetimes.”

    This is what climate failure looks like. Nature, homes and livelihoods are being destroyed. The Government must act now.

    — The Green Party of England & Wales (@greenparty.org.uk) 2026-08-05T11:01:03.072Z

    This is an alarm that needed sounding.

    The week before, while a wildfire the size of two hundred football pitches was raging across Suffolk, Zack had called on the Prime Minister to urgently call a COBRA meeting to address the crisis.

    Six days later, and with another heat alert having just ended, where is the Government response? There has been no COBRA meeting, no emergency briefing, no new plan.

    And so Zack stepped up to challenge the Prime Minister to act.

    “We are facing the biggest threat to this country since the Second World War”

    His challenge to the PM started with a stark reality check: “We are facing the biggest threat to this country since the Second World War.”

    “Extreme weather is now the new normal – and without action, the impact on the people of this country will be unimaginably grave.”

    And Zack broke down exactly what that impact will be.

    First, the threat to our safety.

    The dangers of extreme heat to our health are very real – especially for older people and those with pre-existing conditions – forcing people to stay indoors for days on end, to try to wait out the heat.

    Zack Polanski delivers ‘reality check’ to Burnham over ‘biggest crisis since WWII’ after summer of extreme heat

    — The Green Party of England & Wales (@greenparty.org.uk) 2026-08-05T11:30:36.274Z

    But the heat takes its toll.

    As Zack explained, “Almost three thousand people have died from the effects of extreme heat this summer.”

    Those “whose bodies were under such intense strain in trying to stay cool that their hearts or kidneys could no longer cope.”

    And then there are the fires – forcing hundreds to evacuate their homes, “while many thousands more wait anxiously with flames on the horizon and smoke in their lungs.”

    And Zack pointed to Europe as a warning of how bad things can get.

    “Hundreds of thousands evacuated. Half a million acres burnt.

    “The sheer scale of the devastation is hard to comprehend. But we need to look it in the face – because this is only a taster of what’s to come if we don’t act now.”

    Decimated crops, leaking pipes, and no new reservoirs since 1992

    After the danger to our physical safety, the second threat Zack identified concerned the basis of any society: our food and water supply.

    Half of England is currently experiencing serious drought, and eight of our water reservoirs are at risk of running dry.

    “The threat is so severe”, Zack said, “that the UK’s national risk register warns that if we had three years of exceptionally dry weather like this, we could face water rationing.”

    And what of the private water companies?

    The private water companies that haven’t built a single new reservoir since 1992.

    Well, they are losing nearly three billion litres of water a day from leaky pipes – or as Zack put it “five times more than a nationwide hosepipe ban would save”.

    Our farmers and growers, meanwhile, are on the frontlines of climate breakdown – facing in turn the extreme rainfall and flooding of recent winters, and the extreme heat and drought of our summers.

    Zack noted that despite farmers working through the nights to avoid the heat, food production has been hit by this chaotic combo of flooding and drought, and food prices are set to rise as a result.

    “A threat to our way of life”

    The third threat Zack named was far-reaching: the threat to our way of life.

    “Parents unable to take their children to the playground because the slides are so hot it could burn their skin off. Temperatures so high they keep us inside for days for the sake of our health. Cities feeling like ghost towns. Parks turned into deserts.”

    As climate change progresses – bringing more frequent, more damaging extreme weather – the way each of us lives our life will be more severely impacted.

    Zack Polanski holds a press conference to deliver an urgent message to Prime Minister Andy Burnham
    Zack Polanski holds a press conference to deliver an urgent message to Prime Minister Andy Burnham. (Photo: Aldo Ciarrocchi)

    And we don’t have to look far to see what may face us in the years ahead.

    Zack pointed to the “apocalyptic” scenes of “Wildfires. Droughts. Deadly floods.” coming out of Europe, noting that the continent “is heating at twice the rate of the rest of the world.”

    It is there for all of us to see.

    And yet the response from the Government, and most of the media, has been to look the other way.

    In Zack’s words: “It’s an astonishing dereliction of duty from those whose first responsibility is to keep us safe.”

    Zack’s demands for action: cool spaces, water in public hands, and taxing oil and gas giants to fund fire services

    The need for action is urgent.

    And Zack set out immediate steps the Prime Minister could take “to protect people right now and keep us safe from what we know is coming down the track.”

    “We need to keep people safe from extreme temperatures. That means a free, accessible cool space in every local area. And financial support for households to heatproof their home.”

    Secondly, Zack called for a robust wildfire prevention strategy – and a fire service with the resources it needs to tackle blazes when they come.

    “This should be funded,” Zack said, “by taxing the fossil fuel giants who are profiting from fuelling these infernos.”

    And thirdly Zack called for public ownership of our water.

    “To secure our water supply, prevent droughts and protect our food system we need to bring water back into public hands.”

    “Every penny households pay for their water needs to go back into strengthening our infrastructure, building new reservoirs, and protecting us from the droughts of the future.”

    Extreme weather is now the new normal.The Prime Minister must act like this is the emergency it is.

    — The Green Party of England & Wales (@greenparty.org.uk) 2026-08-05T10:15:07.597Z

    Zack’s message to the PM: “There can be no new drilling for oil and gas”

    Before handing the microphone over to the assembled experts, Zack finished with a powerful message direct to the Prime Minister.

    “If we are to secure a liveable future for our children and grandchildren, there can be no new drilling for oil and gas. On this, the science is crystal clear.

    “As politicians, we have a moral responsibility to do what’s right for the people we serve, even when it’s not politically convenient.

    “And I know that whatever our differences, we both care deeply about the people of this country – and the future of our world.

    “So when the time comes, I hope you will have the courage to be truthful, be brave – and hold firm to your party’s commitment to no new oil and gas drilling in the north sea – including both Rosebank and Jackdaw.

    “Some will say we can’t afford to make these changes. These last few weeks are showing we can’t afford not to.”

    “A dereliction of duty”: four expert voices on extreme heat

    Zack was followed by four speakers with unique expertise on the extreme heat emergency.

    First up was Carl Benfield, a former soldier and engineer, who since leaving the military has turned his engineering expertise to the challenges posed by climate breakdown.

    His view? “Climate change is the single greatest threat to human security that we face.”

    And his conclusion on successive governments’ failure to prioritise this threat was damning: “A government’s first duty is to keep its citizens safe. Ignoring extreme heat and raging fires isn’t just complacency, it’s a dereliction of duty.”

    He was clear about what’s required: “We need an immediate COBRA-level response. We need climate change reinstated at the top of our defence and security agenda. And we need the bold leadership of Zack Polanski for our nation.”

    "Ignoring extreme heat and raging fires isn't just complacency. It's a dereliction of duty."Experts warn the climate crisis is already costing lives and urgent action from the Government is needed.

    — The Green Party of England & Wales (@greenparty.org.uk) 2026-08-05T13:01:10.841Z

    Next to speak was London firefighter James Rodgers.

    His powerful testimony of a worker on the frontlines of extreme heat highlighted the immediacy of the crisis, and how rapidly the conditions in which firefighters work are changing due to extreme heat.

    “When people talk about climate change, they often talk about the year 2050. I’m a firefighter and I want to talk about now.”

    “Because for firefighters, climate change isn’t a prediction. It’s a shift we are already working.

    “Climate change is the fire call to multiple back gardens alight, children’s clothing burning on the washing line.

    “Climate change is the acrid smell as you affect entry into a flat because someone has succumbed to heat stroke and hasn’t been checked on in weeks. Climate change is the sound of people in floods of tears when they are stuck in a lift 20 floors up in 30 degree heat.

    “Climate change is the taste of dust in your dry mouth, watching a fire sweep uncontrollably across a park you used to play football in as a child in your summer holidays. Climate change is this becoming a day to day reality. ”

    Dr Veena Aggarwal speaks at the press conference on the emergency of extreme heat
    Dr Veena Aggarwal speaks at the press conference on the emergency of extreme heat. (Photo: Aldo Ciarrocchi)

    Next was Dr Veena Aggarwal, a GP in Bristol and the Climate and Sustainability Co-Lead and Clinical Adviser at the Royal College of GPs.

    She emphasised the growing danger to health, and – as with the fire services – the extreme pressure placed on health services by the heat:

    “As a GP, I’ve been seeing firsthand the health impact of the recent heat waves.

    “Ambulances are so stretched we couldn’t get an ambulance for a patient with sepsis or another one with very low oxygen levels, because the ambulance service was so completely overwhelmed.

    “The London Ambulance Service saw its busiest ever day during the heatwave in June, on 26th June. That’s even busier than the days at the height of the Covid pandemic emergency.

    “We’re seeing people having more asthma attacks; having flares up of their chronic lung disease so extreme they need to be in hospital; more people having heart attacks, strokes; or having falls and collapsing due to the heat, especially those who are frail and more vulnerable.”

    Dr Aggarwal also highlighted the impact of the heat on staff and patients in NHS buildings, the human cost of the heat waves, and the need for immediate action.

    “An extra almost 3000 deaths occurred within just one week in June during the heatwaves. That’s almost double what was recorded in that season in 2025. In Europe those deaths are 14,000 in that same period.

    “We need to act now. The climate crisis is a health crisis.”

    Chris Packham speaks at the press conference on the emergency of extreme heat
    Chris Packham speaks at the press conference on the emergency of extreme heat. (Photo: Aldo Ciarrocchi)

    The final speaker was broadcaster and nature campaigner Chris Packham.

    Chris was excoriating in his appraisal of the Government and media’s response to the climate crisis.

    Citing the same death figures as Dr Aggarwal, he said “If these deaths had been the result of terrorism or a pandemic, the Government would have cancelled its summer holiday.

    “There would have been COBRA meetings, and there would have been public information campaigns the likes of which we saw during Covid, designed to protect us in this time of crisis.”

    “And yet what do we get?

    “We get rumours of possibly more drilling for oil and gas, and we get articles in the Telegraph suggesting we ought to adapt to a Mediterranean climate…

    “If that isn’t reckless and irresponsible, I don’t know what is.”

    Long video of the Press Conference.

  • Actuaries and Scientists Warn Climate Shocks Risk ‘Planetary Insolvency’

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    Original article by Jessica Corbett republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Published Jan 16, 2025

    Gas company employees work in Malibu, California, after the Palisades Fire destroyed beach homes on January 12, 2025. (Photo: Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)

    A new report “shows a 50% GDP contraction between 2070 and 2090 unless an alternative course is chartered,” said the lead author.

    U.K. actuaries and University of Exeter climate scientists on Thursday warned that “the risk of planetary insolvency looms unless we act decisively” and urged policymakers to “implement realistic and effective approaches to global risk management.”

    Actuaries have developed techniques that “underpin the functioning of the global pension market with $55 trillion of assets, and the global insurance market, collecting $8 trillion of premiums annually, to help us manage risk,” Tim Lenton, University of Exeter’s climate change and Earth system science chair, noted in the foreword of a report released Thursday.

    Planetary Solvency—Finding Our Balance With Nature is the fourth report for which the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) has collaborated with climate scientists. In financial terms, solvency is the ability of people or companies to pay their long-term debts. Co-authors of one of the previous publications coined the phrase planetary solvency, “setting out the idea that financial risk management techniques could be adapted to help society manage climate change and other risks.”

    Three IFoA leaders—Kalpana Shah, Paul Sweeting, and Kartina Tahir Thomson—explained in their introduction to the latest report how “planetary solvency applies these techniques to the Earth system,” writing:

    The essentials that support our society and economy all flow from the Earth system, commodities such as food, water, energy, and raw materials. The Earth system regulates the climate and provides a breathable atmosphere, it is the foundation that underpins our society and economy. Planetary solvency assesses the Earth system’s ability to continue supporting us, informed by planetary boundaries, tipping points in the Earth system, and other scientific discoveries to assess risks to this foundation—and thus to our society and the economy.

    Our illustrative assessment of planetary solvency in this report shows a more fundamental, policy-led change of direction is required. Our current market-led approach to mitigating climate and nature risks is not delivering. There is an increasing risk of severe societal disruption (planetary insolvency), as our economic system drives further global warming and nature degradation.

    “Impacts are already severe with unprecedented fires, floods, heatwaves, storms, and droughts,” the document points out, emphasizing that human activity—particularly burning fossil fuels—drives climate change and biodiversity loss. “If unchecked they could become catastrophic, including loss of capacity to grow major staple crops, multimeter sea-level rise, altered climate patterns, and a further acceleration of global warming.”

    The report was released as wildfires ravage California and shortly after scientific bodies around the world concluded that 2024 was the hottest year on record and the first in which the average global temperature exceeded a key goal of the Paris agreement: 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. In the United States, experts identified 27 disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion.

    “We risk triggering tipping points such as Greenland ice sheet melt, coral reef loss, Amazon forest dieback, and major ocean current disruption,” the new publication warns, adding that “tipping points can trigger each other,” and if multiple are triggered, “there may be a point of no return, after which it may be impossible to stabilize the climate.”

    Food system shocks and more frequent and devastating disasters increase the risk of mass mortality for humanity—including due to hunger and infectious diseases—along with mass migration and conflict, the report highlights.

    “Climate change risk assessment methodologies understate economic impact, as they often exclude many of the most severe risks that are expected and do not recognize there is a risk of ruin,” the document stresses. “They are precisely wrong, rather than being roughly right.”

    Specifically, lead author and IFoA council member Sandy Trust said in a statement, “widely used but deeply flawed assessments of the economic impact of climate change show a negligible impact” on gross domestic product (GDP).

    However, Trust continued, “the risk-led methodology, set out in the report, shows a 50% GDP contraction between 2070 and 2090 unless an alternative course is chartered.”

    To mitigate the risk of planetary insolvency, the co-authors called on policymakers around the world to implement independent, annual assessments; set limits and thresholds that respect the planet’s boundaries; enhance governance structures to support planetary solvency; and “enhance policymaker understanding of ecological interdependencies, tipping points, and systemic risks so they understand why these changes are needed.”

    They also underscored the need to limit global warming and avoid triggering tipping points with actions such as accelerating decarbonization, removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, restoring damaged ecosystems, and building resilience.

    “You can’t have an economy without a society, and a society needs somewhere to live,” said Trust. “Nature is our foundation… Threats to the stability of this foundation are risks to future human prosperity which we must take action to avoid.”

    Original article by Jessica Corbett republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

    Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes' concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country's economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
    Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
    Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.

  • Children born in 2020 will face ‘unprecedented exposure’ to climate extremes

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    Original article republished from Carbon Brief under a CC license. 

    Children drink water from a pipeline in the village of Afraaga, Somaliland. Credit: Joe Giddens / Alamy Stock Photo

    Children born in 2020 will face “unprecedented exposure” to extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts and wildfires, even if warming is limited to 1.5C above pre-industrial temperatures.

    That is according to a new study, published in Nature, which calculates the number of unprecedented extreme events that people born in different decades and countries might live through.

    Using a case study focused on Brussels, the researchers find that people born in 2020 will experience an “unprecedented” 11 heatwaves in their lifetime – even if global warming is limited to 1.5C by the end of the century.

    In contrast, in a pre-industrial climate, a person living in the Belgian capital would likely experience just three such heatwaves, according to the study.

    More than half of children born in 2020 – around 62 million people – will experience “unprecedented lifetime exposure” to heatwaves, even if warming is limited to 1.5C, the study finds. 

    However, this number nearly doubles to 111 million under a scenario where warming hits 3.5C.

    The study also analyses crop failures, river floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires and droughts. 

    The research “helps the climate community build new narratives that better clarify the impacts [of climate change] on younger generations and vulnerable populations”, one expert who was not involved in the study tells Carbon Brief.

    Intergenerational justice

    As the planet warms, extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods and droughts are becoming more intense, more frequent and lasting longer.

    A popular 2021 study found that children born in the 21st century will be exposed to more extreme weather events in their lifetimes than their parents and grandparents.

    The paper found that in a scenario of 3C of warming above pre-industrial levels, a child who turns six in 2020 will experience twice as many wildfires and tropical cyclones, three times more river floods, four times more crop failures, five times more droughts and 36 times more heatwaves over their lifetime than a six-year-old living in a pre-industrial climate.

    The authors also found a “particularly strong increase” in children’s future exposure to extremes in the Middle East and North Africa.

    The lead author of the study – Prof Wim Thiery from Vrije Universiteit Brussel – told Carbon Brief at the time that today’s youth will live “an unprecedented life”, in which they will “face conditions which older generations have never experienced”.

    Four years later, Dr Luke Grant – a researcher in Thiery’s team – has led a new study building on the ideas of the 2021 paper.

    Grant tells Carbon Brief that rather than counting the number of extreme events that an individual might experience, his new study counts the number of people that reach an “unprecedented state” of exposure to extremes.

    Prof Kaveh Madani is the director of the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health and was not involved in the study. He tells Carbon Brief that the paper “helps the climate community build new narratives that better clarify the impacts [of climate change] on younger generations and vulnerable populations”.

    The authors define “exposure” as the number of extreme events that a person experiences in their lifetime, relative to the number they would have experienced in a pre-industrial climate.

    “Unprecedented lifetime exposure” is defined as exposure so high that it has only a one-in-10,000 chance of happening in a world without any greenhouse gas emissions.

    ‘Unprecedented lifetime exposure’

    The authors present a case study of extreme heat in Brussels, Belgium, to explain their method.

    They define a heatwave as a three-day extreme heat event, which reaches average temperatures that would be expected once per century in a pre-industrial climate.

    Using models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), the authors calculate heatwave frequency in a world without climate change. They also assess scenarios in which warming is limited to 1.5C, 2.5C and 3.5C by the end of the century.

    They combine this data with demographic information, including how many people are born in the country each year and their average life expectancy, using data from sources including the ISIMIP database and UN population estimates and projections.

    In a world without climate change, the study finds that a person born in 1960 in Brussels would have a one-in-10,000 chance of experiencing six of the pre-defined heatwaves in their lifetime. Any member of this “birth cohort” who experiences more than six heatwaves in their lifetime has therefore faced “unprecedented lifetime exposure” to extreme heat, according to the study.

    The authors find that a person born in Brussels in 1960 is likely to experience three heatwaves on average during their lives under all of the three future warming pathways– meaning that they are unlikely to face “unprecedented lifetime exposure” to heat.

    By contrast, the researchers find that many younger age cohorts will experience unprecedented heatwave exposure. For many younger age cohorts, lifetime exposure to heatwaves is greater for higher warming pathways. 

    For example, people born in Brussels in 2020 will experience 11 heatwaves in their lifetime if global warming is limited to 1.5C by the end of the century. If warming rises to 2.5C or 3.5C, they could experience 18 or 26 heatwaves, respectively. 

    The graphic below shows heat exposure since birth in Brussels for three “birth cohorts” of 1960 (bottom row), 1990 (middle row) and 2020 (top row). It presents three future scenarios, in which warming is limited to 1.5C (blue), 2.5C (yellow) and 3.5C (red) by 2100. The dotted line shows the threshold for an “unprecedented” lifetime exposure to extreme heat. 

    Lifetime exposure to unprecedented heat for people born in Brussels
    Lifetime exposure to unprecedented heat for people born in Brussels in 1960 (bottom row), 1990 (middle row) and 2020 (top row), under scenarios that limit warming to 1.5C (blue), 2.5C (yellow) and 3.5C (red) by the year 2100. The dotted line shows the threshold for an “unprecedented” lifetime exposure to extreme heat. Source: Grant et al (2025).

    Heat exposure

    The authors repeat their analysis across the Earth’s entire land surface, by dividing it into grid cells and using location-specific temperature and demographic data. 

    Of the 81 million people born in 1960, they find that 13 million are likely to face unprecedented exposure to heatwaves in their lifetimes. They add that for this age cohort, lifetime exposure to unprecedented extremes does not vary depending on the warming scenario.

    However, 21st century warming has a significant effect on exposure for younger generations. Under a 1.5C warming pathway, 52% of people born in 2020 will face unprecedented exposure to heatwaves. This rises to 92% under a 3.5C warming scenario.

    The study adds:

    “This implies that 111 million children born in 2020 will live an unprecedented life in terms of heatwave exposure in a world that warms to 3.5C versus 62 million in a 1.5C pathway.”

    The charity Save the Children has published a report which unpacks the findings of the study. The graphic below, from the report, shows the percentage of people from different countries born in 2020 who will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves under the 1.5C (top), 2.5C (middle) and 3.5C (bottom) warming scenarios.

    Each circle shows a country, indicated by its three-letter countries code. The size of the circle indicates the number of people in the country. Darker circles indicate higher-income countries. 

    Circles on the right hand side of the graphic indicate that more than half of the country’s 2020 cohort will be exposed to unprecedented heatwaves in their lifetime. 

    The percentage of people born in 2020 who will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves
    The percentage of people born in 2020 who will face unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves under the 1.5C (top), 2.5C (middle) and 3.5C (bottom) warming scenarios. Each circle indicates a country, indicated by its three-letter countries code. The size of the circle indicates the number of people in the country. Darker circles indicate higher-income countries. Source: Save the Children

    “The evidence is now inescapable that heatwaves impact every community around the world,” Dr Luke Harrington, a senior lecturer in environmental science at the University of Waikato, who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief. He adds: 

    “This paper offers the clearest view that climate change is verifiably unfair: those who have done the least to contribute to rising global temperatures will experience the most extreme impacts.”

    From floods to fires

    The authors apply the same method to five other climate extremes – crop failure, wildfires, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones.

    The graphic below shows the key findings. The coloured portion of the bar shows the number of people born in 2020 who will face unprecedented exposure to each extreme under a 1.5C warming pathway. The dark green and light green bars show the additional exposure under 2.7C and 3.5C warming.

    Number of people born in 2020 who will face “unprecedented lifetime exposure” to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires and droughts
    Number of people born in 2020 who will face “unprecedented lifetime exposure” to heatwaves, crop failures, river floods, tropical cyclones, wildfires and droughts under 1.5C 2.7C and 3.5C warming. Source: Save the Children

    The authors find that unprecedented lifetime exposure to heatwaves will affect the most people, with 62 million people born in 2020 likely to face unprecedented exposure to heat in their lifetimes if warming is limited to 1.5C.

    This is followed by crop failures and river floods, which will impact 23 million and 10 million people from the 2020 birth cohort under the 1.5C warming pathway, respectively.

    Lead author Grant tells Carbon Brief that he is “most confident” about his heatwave findings because temperature is a “basic” metric for climate models to “get right”.

    Meanwhile, extremes such as crop failure depend on a range of factors including soil moisture, land-atmosphere interactions and rainfall, which can make it harder for the models to accurately capture changes, Grant explains.

    Vulnerability

    The authors also assess how “socioeconomic vulnerability” affects their findings using a global deprivation index – a tool which measures the level of disadvantage and hardship experienced by individuals or communities in a particular geographic area.

    The authors use the index to identify the 20% most and least vulnerable people in each age cohort. They find that the most vulnerable groups are overwhelmingly from African countries.

    The authors also conclude that “socioeconomically vulnerable people have a consistently higher chance of facing unprecedented lifetime heatwave exposure compared to the least vulnerable members of their generation”.

    The graph below, taken from a news and views article about the study, shows the percentage of high vulnerability (red) and low vulnerability (pink) people in each age cohort who would be exposed to unprecedented heat, under a 2.7C warming scenario. 

    The percentage of high vulnerability (red) and low vulnerability (pink) people in each age cohort who would be exposed to unprecedented heat,
    The percentage of high vulnerability (red) and low vulnerability (pink) people in each age cohort who would be exposed to unprecedented heat, under a 2.7C warming scenario. Source: Gualdi and Muttarak (2025).

    Dr Marina Romanello, a research fellow at the University College London and research director of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the paper “is an important addition to the scientific literature, showing how our delays in tackling climate change are putting the future of our children at risk”. 

    She adds:

    “The authors have used well-established models to project future health threats, framing them around what matters the most: the wellbeing, health and survival of present and future generations.”

    Grant, L. et al. (2025) Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes, Nature, doi:10.1038/s41586-025-08907-1

    Original article republished from Carbon Brief under a CC license. 

  • Revealed: Forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels soar in Trump’s first 100 days

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    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/02/trump-drill-baby-drill-tariffs

    Expected greenhouse gas emissions from US oil and gas fields has jumped under Trump, after previously dropping under Biden, forecasts show. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images

    Tariff chaos hampers Trump’s pledge to ‘drill, baby, drill’, but analysis still shows surge in planet-heating emissions

    Donald Trump’s ambitions for the US to “drill, baby, drill” for more fossil fuels have ironically been hampered by the economic chaos unleashed by his own tariffs, but the US is still on track to increase oil and gas extraction, causing a surge in planet-heating emissions, a new analysis shows.

    The US was already the world’s leading oil and gas power, producing more of the fossil fuels than any country in history during Joe Biden’s administration. But Trump has sought to escalate this further, declaring an “energy emergency” to open up more land and ocean for drilling and launching an unprecedented assault on environmental regulations in his first 100 days back in the White House.

    This new political climate means that the expected amount of greenhouse gas emissions from active and planned projects in US oil and gas fields has jumped under Trump, after previously dropping under Biden, forecasts shared with the Guardian show.

    Despite awarding more drilling leases than Trump in his first 100 days, Biden also pursued policies to combat the climate crisis that saw oil and gas companies revise down their production estimates. That situation has now reversed, threatening a pulse of new pollution that will further add to the fever of a planet already suffering from heatwaves, floods, droughts and other disasters accelerated by global heating.

    “The uptick in embodied emissions from forecast US oil and gas production is worrying,” said Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, which tracks emissions projections from the lifetime of projects, based on data from research consultancy Rystad Energy. “The world can’t afford more climate chaos.”

    …

    The International Energy Agency, which has forecast that global oil and gas demand will peak by 2030, has said that no new major fossil fuel projects can occur if the world is to stay within agreed temperature limits and avoid catastrophic climate impacts. Last year was the hottest, worldwide, ever recorded and governments are collectively failing to meet targets to avert escalating disasters.

    …

    Tariffs on solar panels from Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have been ratcheted up to as much as 3,521%. “We don’t want windmills in this country,” the president said shortly after his inauguration in January. “We don’t want windmills. You know what else people don’t like? Those massive solar fields.”

    …

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/02/trump-drill-baby-drill-tariffs

    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
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    Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
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    Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.

    ‘A ruthless agenda’: charting 100 days of Trump’s onslaught on the environment

  • More than 150 ‘unprecedented’ climate disasters struck world in 2024, says UN

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    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/19/unprecedented-climate-disasters-extreme-weather-un-report

    A destroyed mechanic’s shop in downtown Swannanoa, North Carolina, US, December 2024, nearly three months after Hurricane Helene in late September. Photograph: Mike Belleme/The Guardian

    Floods, heatwaves and supercharged hurricanes occurred in hottest climate human society has ever experienced

    …

    The world is already deep into the climate crisis, with the WMO report saying that for the first time, the 10 hottest years on record all occurred in the last decade. However, global carbon emissions have continued to rise, which will bring even worse impacts. Experts were particularly critical of the purge of climate scientists and programmes by the US president, Donald Trump, saying that ignoring reality left ordinary people paying the price.

    “Leaders must step up – seizing the benefits of cheap, clean renewables for their people and economies – with new national climate plans due this year,” said the UN secretary general, António Guterres.

    Dr Luke Parsons, of the Nature Conservancy, said: “Every year, we venture further into uncharted territory, with 2024 the hottest year modern human society has ever experienced. Yet the coming decade is expected to be even hotter, pushing us deeper into this unprecedented climate.”

    Previous research determining the role of the climate crisis in what are now unnatural disasters has shown that at least 550 heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and wildfires had been made significantly more severe or more frequent by global heating.

    …

    Original article by The Guardian at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/19/unprecedented-climate-disasters-extreme-weather-un-report

    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.
    Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
    Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
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    Orcas comment on killer apes destroying the planet by continuing to burn fossil fuels.