Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister’s Questions at the Houses of Parliament, April 15, 2026
Polls show Labour facing meltdown in May elections for devolved parliaments and local authorities
LABOUR is facing a May meltdown in elections for devolved parliaments and local authorities, latest polling confirms.
The party is on course for wipeout in Wales, a setback in Scotland and evisceration across England, particularly in “red wall” districts in the Midlands and north.
The Greens and hard-right Reform are set to be the beneficiaries in England, with nationalist parties winning in Scotland and Wales.
If the results on May 7 bear out these predictions it will revive pressure on Labour MPs to act to end Sir Keir Starmer’s disastrous leadership of their party and the government.
James Johnson, of JL Partners, which conducted the detailed survey for the Telegraph, said the research pointed to “a major political earthquake” across Britain.
“It could be the worst local election ever for Labour in England, a collapse for the Conservatives in their historic Blue Wall heartlands, and a brutal third place for Starmer’s party in Wales,” he said.
Hannah Spencer (left) and Zack Polanski. A new technique that predicted Spencer’s byelection win forecasts that Labour could lose Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA
[Guardian] Exclusive: Senior party figures share data suggesting Green surge could put Labour in fourth place in capital in May
Senior Labour politicians across London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, with concerns the party faces a “political earthquake” in the capital in May after a surge in support for the Greens.
They have been privately circulating new data that suggests Labour could drop from first to fourth place in London in the May elections – losing control of all but two of their councils – with the Greens soaring into first place to take nine.
“The government needs to demonstrate that they’re not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted,” a senior London Labour figure warned.
Another added: “It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed. We need to start listening to them.”
A new technique, which builds on MRP modelling and correctly predicted the Gorton and Denton byelection result, forecasts that Labour, which holds 21 boroughs in London, could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens.
The modelling, from the data firm Bombe, will spook Labour MPs, who hold 59 of London’s 75 parliamentary seats, and include Keir Starmer, David Lammy, Steve Reed and Wes Streeting.
According to the forecast, the party would lose more than half its council seats – many to the Greens – in the prime minister’s own back yard, Camden, which would fall to no overall control.
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Mike Joslin, the chief executive of Bombe, which is non-political, said: “Labour is facing wipeout in London in the face of a Green tidal wave. The data shows that Labour’s core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza, social equality issues and Brexit. They want someone that shares their values.
‘Labour’s core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza.’ Demonstrators at a pro-Palestine march in 2024. Photograph: Antonio Olmos/The Observer
Keir Starmer objects to criticism of the IDF. He asks how could anyone object to them starving people to death, forced marches like the Nazis did, bombing Gaza’s hospitals and universities, mass-murdering journalists, healthworkers and starving people queuing for food, killing and raping prisoners and murdering children. He calls for people to stop obstructing his genocide for Israel.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.Keir Starmer says that the Labour Party under his leadership is intensely relaxed about assaulting those least able to defend themselves – the very poorest and most vulnerable.
The victory of the Greens in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary byelection is a landmark for the party. But our new research reveals the Greens have received limited airtime over the last year despite almost doubling their support in the polls and in party membership.
While Reform UK has seen a spike in media coverage since it took a commanding lead in the polls, our research shows the Greens have not received more airtime in recognition of their growing popularity.
Broadcasters have to abide by due impartiality rules, but they have the editorial freedom to balance the airtime of political parties. They consider factors such as a party’s vote share at the last UK general election or a party’s electoral performance at the most recent devolved, regional and local election. Other factors to consider include the latest trends in opinion polls tracking voting intention, and whether what a party is saying the news organisation considers significant or, as the BBC says, whether they are “making the political weather” by setting the agenda.
After winning the byelection, this raises the question: should the Greens now be given more airtime?
Limited coverage of Greens
Our Impartiality project team has been tracking coverage of UK opposition parties on BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten, the UK’s most-watched nightly TV news bulletins.
In 2025, we found the Greens were the sixth most covered opposition party, being referenced in just 32 items, behind the Conservatives (375), Reform UK (213), the Liberal Democrats (116), the Scottish National Party or SNP (46) and ahead of Plaid Cymru (10).
Number of items led by an opposition party on BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten. Cardiff University, CC BY-NC-ND
We also tracked how often a party was the leading focus of a broadcaster’s report. The Greens led four items – three on BBC and one on ITV. These stories related to the Greens’ May local election campaign, Zack Polanski winning the party leadership in September and the party conference in October. But neither BBC News at Ten and ITV News at Ten covered the announcement or build-up to the leadership contest.
In contrast, Reform UK led 69 items, Conservatives led 45 items, the Liberal Democrats led 14 items and the SNP led 13 items.
The Greens also appeared on only four episodes of BBC Question Time during 2025. That was about a third as often as the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK. Despite the leadership change, the subsequent surge in membership and the sustained rise in poll ratings (from 11% in August 2025 to 17% in December 2025), broadcast coverage of Greens did not increase at the end of 2025.
This shows a potential inequality in the treatment of the rising left and right parties. The BBC cited improvements in opinion polling as one of the factors behind the increased coverage of Reform UK, but the Green party’s popularity has not received anywhere near the same recognition.
In May 2025, news coverage of Reform UK increased substantially following its victories in local and mayoral elections, which broadcasters considered a sign that the party was now a major player in UK electoral politics. Our research even showed in September 2025 Reform UK was referenced on TV news more than the Conservatives, the party that is supposed to be the UK’s parliamentary official opposition.
Greens and Reform UK TV news coverage compared to opinion polls. Cardiff University, CC BY-NC-ND
The question now is whether broadcasters will take the Green party’s victory in Gorton and Denton as a similar sign of its electoral significance and increase media coverage of the party.
While broadcasters have not broken any of the UK’s rules on due impartiality, our new research raises questions about how they have been interpreting impartiality in a new multi-party system.
Traditionally they have relied on allocating airtime according to parties with the largest number of MPs and total vote at the last general election. They have also factored in performances at the latest local, regional or devolved elections. But they now appear to making more subjective judgements about allocating airtime according to the opinion polls or the newsworthiness of parties.
Given the Greens’ growing popularity, their distinctive set of policies, charismatic leader and byelection victory, they might now look set to receive more media attention and scrutiny over the coming months.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Nigel Farage explains the politics of Reform UK: Racism, Fake anti-establishmentism, Deregulation, Corporatism, Climate Change Denial, Mysogyny and Transphobia.Nigel Farage reminds you that he’s the man that brought you Brexit and asks what could possibly go wrong.
Reform UK’s Gorton and Denton byelection candidate, Matt Goodwin, attends a campaign event in Manchester with Nigel Farage, 5 February 2026. Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
This byelection should have been a stroll for Keir Starmer’s party. Instead, all hope of defeating Matt Goodwin now seems to lie with the Greens
Every barb Labour has directed at the Greens can now be returned with interest. “It’s a wasted vote.” “Do you want to see Reform in power?” New polling ahead of the crucial Gorton and Denton byelection this week, while by no means decisive, puts the Greens first on 22%, followed by Reform UK (20%), then Labour (18%), with 31% undecided. But still Keir Starmer falsely claims that “only Labour can beat Reform”. Does he want to see Reform in power?
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A survey of 6,000 people by the group Persuasion UK found that by far the most effective message of five options was focused on corporate interests and went as follows: “Nigel Farage says he’s on people’s side – but when you take a closer look it’s pretty clear who he’s really fighting for, isn’t it? It’s the rich, the powerful, his mates in big business.” It explained that Reform UK has taken vast donations from fossil fuel investors and climate science deniers. This, Persuasion UK said, is why Farage wants to cut public services, workers’ rights and taxes for the richest. “He’s not smashing the system. He and his rich friends basically are the system.”
None of the other attack lines came anywhere near this for efficacy. So why doesn’t Labour use it? Because that might alienate the people Starmer seems keenest to appease: Labour’s own corporate backers and the billionaire proprietors of the rightwing press. The leadership’s key objective is not stopping Farage, but frightening people into voting Labour. Quite frankly, it has nothing else left.
One by one, it has destroyed the hopes that people vested in it, alienating potential voters on everything from Gaza to benefits to its self-destructive apeing of Reform’s rhetoric on immigration; from its vicious factional warfare against leftwingers in the party to its tearing up of environmental protections and attacks on wildlife, which, in a country of nature lovers, is utter, self-defeating madness. Disgust and disillusionment among former supporters is everywhere palpable.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Keir Starmer refuses to be outcnuted by Nigel Farage’s chasing the racist bigot vote.Nigel Farage explains the politics of Reform UK: Racism, Fake anti-establishmentism, Deregulation, Corporatism, Climate Change Denial, Mysogyny and Transphobia.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister’s Questions at the Houses of Parliament, April 15, 2026
