[Guardian] Exclusive: Senior party figures share data suggesting Green surge could put Labour in fourth place in capital in May
Senior Labour politicians across London have warned the government not to take progressive voters for granted, with concerns the party faces a “political earthquake” in the capital in May after a surge in support for the Greens.
They have been privately circulating new data that suggests Labour could drop from first to fourth place in London in the May elections – losing control of all but two of their councils – with the Greens soaring into first place to take nine.
“The government needs to demonstrate that they’re not taking liberal, progressive voters in the capital for granted,” a senior London Labour figure warned.
Another added: “It’s going to be a total catastrophe for us in London. If we lose swathes of voters on our progressive flank then we’re doomed. We need to start listening to them.”
A new technique, which builds on MRP modelling and correctly predicted the Gorton and Denton byelection result, forecasts that Labour, which holds 21 boroughs in London, could lose flagship authorities such as Hackney and Lambeth to the Greens.
The modelling, from the data firm Bombe, will spook Labour MPs, who hold 59 of London’s 75 parliamentary seats, and include Keir Starmer, David Lammy, Steve Reed and Wes Streeting.
According to the forecast, the party would lose more than half its council seats – many to the Greens – in the prime minister’s own back yard, Camden, which would fall to no overall control.
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Mike Joslin, the chief executive of Bombe, which is non-political, said: “Labour is facing wipeout in London in the face of a Green tidal wave. The data shows that Labour’s core voters think Keir Starmer disagrees with them on Gaza, social equality issues and Brexit. They want someone that shares their values.
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See the original article at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/mar/06/labour-urged-listen-progressive-voters-or-face-political-earthquake-london
