Original article by Paul Rogers republished from openDemocracy under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence.

In choosing big business over ordinary people, the PM has sacrificed the heart of the Labour Party. So what next?

Labour’s political position is increasingly the reverse of the ‘for the many, not the few’ policy pursued under former leader Jeremy Corbyn. The party has embraced corporate capture and the main features of neoliberalism, albeit with incredibly poor timing, as the neoliberal economic model drives runaway wealth that increases dissent across much of the world.

It is no coincidence that, at the same time, when it should be coasting along on a huge parliamentary majority won less than 18 months ago, Labour has been plunged into political disarray and seen its lead disappear in the polls.

By cosying up to big business and failing to offer anything to substantially improve the lives of ordinary people up and down the country, Keir Starmer’s New-New Labour has seen a collapse in its general support and, more significantly, its membership.

The Labour Party has lost 300,000 of the 550,000 members it had in the Corbyn era. While it has been able to recoup the financial support offered by these ordinary members from a few big donors, it has in the process lost the heart of the party.

Many issues demonstrate this, but a few stand out. The government’s repeated refusal (now rumoured to be U-turned on at next month’s Budget) to lift the two-child benefit cap. Its flagship welfare bill (already U-turned on), which would have cut Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payments for millions of vulnerable people. The decision, announced in February of this year, to cut the foreign aid programme to increase military spending.

And then came perhaps the biggest problem of all for Starmer’s Labour: Gaza, where the UK government’s continuing support for Israel as it engages in genocide still beggars belief for many. There have been 32 mass demonstrations in London in the past two years, the most recent being one of the largest protests ever held in the UK. That level of political activity will continue, given Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu seems determined to avoid a peaceful outcome, and Starmer is unlikely to stand up to him or, by extension, the US.

Widespread dismay and depression on the backbenches may ebb and flow, but at this point, it feels like even a change of leadership may not be enough for a real change in fortune.

The government’s current predicament is the main reason why Westminster politics is so uncertain. Looking at the UK-wide parties, the far-right Reform UK is leading polls with vote shares that vary but are typically over 30%, having soaked up plenty of support as a substantial protest vote. If that persists through to the next general election in 2029, it will likely put Nigel Farage into Downing Street.

Labour’s support, meanwhile, is hovering at around 20%, the Tories more like 15% and the Liberal Democrats rather less.

And until three months ago, the Greens were still weak in polling terms – despite having made some progress since last year’s election – and millions on the left were still disenfranchised, having been disillusioned with Starmer’s Labour leadership.

Two things have changed; the first being Zack Polanski winning the Green Party leadership at the start of September. He has brought a more radical and left-wing perspective to the party, which has led to a jump in the polls and an 80% increase in new members. The Greens announced this week that its membership now stands at 126,000 – more than either the Conservatives or the Lib Dems.

The second change is in the fortunes of the new Your Party group, fronted by Corbyn and former Labour MP Zarah Sultana. While the party’s initial request for expressions of interest received a massive 800,000 responses – at which point it appeared likely to provide a serious challenge to Starmer’s Labour – it ran into internal disagreements six weeks ago that knocked it right back and led to a period of utter dismay and anger among supporters.

Those feelings have eased somewhat over the past two weeks, as Your Party has published draft versions of its constitution, standing orders and an organisational strategy, all of which are to be discussed and developed before being decided at a large national conference in Liverpool at the end of November. The documents, including a draft political statement, are open to all and will no doubt be subject to intense debate and plenty of disagreement, but they do appear to be a genuine attempt at accountability that is a very long way from the opacity of the Labour Party.

A typical meeting of supporters, of which there are hundreds around the country, still sees some of the anger of a few weeks ago, but now also more determination to see things through. If the new party can recapture the mood of three months ago – and particularly if it and the Greens are willing to work with one another – then there may be some hope for the disenfranchised left.

One of the most interesting aspects of these rapid political changes is the potential for the three figureheads of these two parties to have a substantial impact.

Zarah Sultana, with an often combative style, appeals particularly to younger and frustrated audiences, while Zack Polanski’s normal and measured approach is persistently disarming for Reform’s far-right politicians. Then there is Jeremy Corbyn, who is already a national figure known for a long-term commitment to a progressive agenda and a remarkable personal following.

These are very early days in a time of rapid political change. Reform is still on the up, but compared with just three months ago, there is now a lot more reason for hope on the left.

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