A barge moves along the water past ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy’s Golden Pass liquefied natural gas facility in Port Arthur on April 2, 2026. (Photo by Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
Between 2026-40, the average wholesale price of liquefied natural gas could be 80% higher than during the past decade, thanks to Trump’s acceleration of exports and the construction of AI data centers.
As President Donald Trump’s push for artificial intelligence data centers sends demand for natural gas soaring, a report released Tuesday projects that wholesale prices will likely double by the late 2030s if his energy and AI policies continue, driving up household energy bills.
The report from the climate activist group Oil Change International, which argues for an end to reliance on fossil fuels, found that recent surges in wholesale natural gas prices are being driven by Trump’s so-called “energy dominance” agenda, which has cranked up natural gas exports.
In his second term, Trump has resumed and accelerated approvals for new natural gas export terminals following a pause on permits under the Biden administration.
Nearly 90 million metric tons of new annual liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity reached a final investment decision as of June, on top of 60 million that had already been under construction, the report found. Combined, the researchers predicted that these projects could double US LNG exports by the early 2030s.
While pursuing energy dominance, Trump is also pursuing “AI dominance,” which has included the breakneck development of data centers specifically built to run on fossil fuels, including natural gas.
His administration has fast-tracked federal permits for data center developers, loosened environmental review processes, and directed his agencies to provide incentives to finance the data center boom.
Gas is expected to power much of the near-term energy use from these data centers. The facilities, which operate 24/7, are being constructed faster than transmission lines can keep up, meaning that new gas plants are being proposed as an alternative.
The report finds that the demands of the AI data center boom could increase gas consumption by 17% by the early 2030s. With the cheapest gas being rapidly depleted, more demand will require producers to expand drilling in parts of the country where it’s significantly more expensive to operate, like the Haynesville shale region of Louisiana and East Texas.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have gutted federal support for wind power construction and other renewable energy sources, which will further increase dependency on gas.
In addition to pumping more planet-heating greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the report finds that this increased demand will likely cause prices to soar for consumers.
Thanks to Trump, the wholesale price of fossil gas could DOUBLE over the next decade, outpacing inflation every year. pic.twitter.com/8FCCmwysWd
— Oil Change International (@PriceofOil) July 28, 2026
Citing fluctuations in the Henry Hub gas price benchmark, the report projected that between 2026-40, the average wholesale price of gas could be 80% higher than during the past decade of US LNG exports, which it notes was “a decade when energy price volatility was already causing hardship in the US and LNG-importing countries.”
“Trump’s policies are making everyone’s lives more expensive while Big Tech and the fossil fuel industry cash in. Our research shows that the cost-of-living crisis will only escalate in the coming years if Congress and government agencies don’t intervene,” said Lorne Stockman, research director at Oil Change International.
“Our leaders must stand up to Trump, phase out LNG exports, stop the reckless data center build-out, and transition the US economy off of fossil fuels to make energy affordable again,” he added.
Bill McKibben, the co-founder of 350.org, argued in an op-ed for Common Dreams on Tuesday that Oil Change’s report, as well as another recent report demonstrating how the fossil fuel industry had hidden the climate damage caused by natural gas from the public for more than half a century, showed that it’s long past time to “make gas a dirty word” in a similar fashion to oil.
“Politicians locking us into natural gas are guaranteeing that our kids will spend much of their lives paying far more for energy than they should—and far more than people in the rest of the world will be spending,” he wrote.
McKibben noted recent reporting in The New York Times detailing how, in the wake of Trump’s war in Iran, which has caused LNG prices to soar across Europe and Asia, nations are beginning to “unshackle” themselves from it as an alternative fuel source. Not so in the US.
“The natural gas industry,” he wrote, “is destroying the climate, and destroying people’s lungs, and it’s trying to lock us into this expensive practice for decades to come.”
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Climate activists from Greenpeace and Uplift during a demonstration outside the Scottish Court of Session, Edinburgh, on the first day of the Rosebank and Jackdaw judicial review hearing, November 12, 2024
CONTROVERSIAL North Sea oil and gas plans “won’t take a penny off our bills” and instead increase “profits of a few,” campaigners warned as a public consultation opened into projects today.
Fossil fuel firm Adura claimed the Rosebank oil field and Jackdaw development would “deliver the greatest benefit for the UK.”
But campaigners and researchers with Uplift, which won the legal case against Rosebank in 2025, warned Brits not to fall for the plans which only serve to increase profits for energy firms.
Its executive director Tessa Khan said: “Rosebank won’t take a penny off our bills or meaningfully boost UK energy supplies — it’s overwhelmingly oil for export.
“But burning its oil would produce emissions equal to 70 per cent of the UK’s annual total, making it utterly incompatible with safe climate limits.
“Rosebank has nothing to do with the UK’s energy security and everything to do with increasing the profits of a few, already obscenely wealthy, oil companies.”
Koch, Inc., said in October that its real estate arm has been getting into the business of building data centers like this one in Council Bluffs, Iowa. Credit: Chad Davis/Wikimedia Commons(CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
Right-wing political group Americans for Prosperity, backed by oil and gas billionaire Charles Koch, sees data centers as part of a larger pro-fossil fuel agenda.
A political group created by oil and gas billionaire Charles Koch earlier this year wrote to a branch of the U.S. government making requests about artificial intelligence.
“To seize the moment and ensure that AI can meet its true promise and potential,” it argued in March to the National Coordination Office, a federal body tasked by Donald Trump at the time with developing an AI Action Plan, the administration should “clear the red tape” preventing “energy innovators” from supplying the massive amounts of electricity required to power new AI data centers across the country.
The comments were written by analysts with Americans for Prosperity (AFP), a Koch-bankrolled activist organization that supports right-wing causes and political candidates and spent more than $157 million to sway voters during the 2024 elections.
Strategy plans, policy documents, corporate communications and comments to the federal government reviewed by DeSmog show that Koch’s political operation is attempting to shape and help implement a U.S. AI technology agenda, which could ultimately profit Koch’s traditional oil and gas business.
Despite the Koch network’s ongoing disagreements with Trump on issues including tariffs, the vast political operation appears to have found common cause with the administration on ensuring that fossil fuels, and not renewable energy sources, are central to AI development, even as wind and solar remain cheaper and faster to build.
“Practical solutions can be identified that move our nation forward,” Americans for Prosperity wrote to the government’s AI and Energy Working Group in May. “We look forward to working with you and the Congress to assist in the identification of those solutions.”
Neither AFP nor Koch, Inc. responded to a request for comment.
‘Couched in Fear’
Charles Koch became one of America’s richest people through owning and overseeing an industrial empire with his late brother, David, that includes oil refineries, pipelines, petrochemicals and natural gas. Koch, Inc., formerly known as Koch Industries, is now embracing AI across its vast operations, which it has predicted will create “substantial economic value” for the company.
Koch, Inc., in 2020 announced a partnership with the AI software provider C3 AI, with the goal of improving “operating performance” across its products “ranging from refined oil, chemicals, and biofuels to polymers, automotive components, and forest products.”
Also around that time, the company led a $125 million investment in the San Francisco cloud computing startup Mesosphere, alongside the likes of Microsoft and Khosla Ventures. Other backers included Andreessen Horowitz, the venture capital firm whose founders became prominent Trump supporters during the 2024 election.
Koch, Inc., said in October that its real estate arm has been getting into the business of building data centers in cities like Chicago, Kansas City, and Atlanta. The company argued in a news release that it “can provide the expertise and capabilities that major tech companies either don’t have or don’t think would be worth the time or effort to build on their own from the ground up.”
As Koch’s industrial empire invests in AI and partners with Big Tech, AFP is pushing the Trump administration to remove regulatory barriers on the technology.
Last March, AFP analysts Faith Burns and James Czerniawski disapprovingly noted there were over 800 state-level proposals to regulate AI. These efforts “are couched in fear of the technology,” they argued in comments to the National Coordination Office, and said the correct approach for government is “keeping itself out of the way to drive innovation.”
This is part of a larger political project that would also be beneficial to the Koch companies involved with producing, transporting and selling fossil fuels.
AFP argued in its March comments that the administration and Congress could make progress on accelerating AI by deregulating the power sector “to get abundant and affordable energy to Americans and leading AI companies.”
‘Radical Climate Dogma’
The quickest and most economic way to power all the data centers now being built is through renewable sources, industry data shows. That’s in part because nearly 80 percent of planned electricity projects in the U.S. are currently tied to solar and wind farms.
But Americans for Prosperity has thrown its political weight behind legislation that hobbles renewables in favor of oil, gas and coal.
It cited as a major victory the passage this summer of the Trump administration’s Big Beautiful Bill, a massive tax cut bill predominately benefiting America’s wealthiest citizens that included deep cuts to clean energy tax credits brought in under President Joe Biden.
The Koch political group ran a $20 million advertising and political campaign that it claimed “helped make this win possible through over 1,500 meetings with lawmakers, nearly 500,000 doors knocked, more than 475,000 phone calls, 725+ community events [and] over 100,000 letters sent to Congress.”
AFP presented the bill as a victory for fossil fuels. “It provides for a minimum of 30 offshore oil and gas lease sales,” its analyst Burns said in an advertisement posted on the group’s Facebook page. “And it makes available for lease four million acres of recoverable coal resources on federal land.”
As it worked to help pass the Big Beautiful Bill, Americans for Prosperity was supporting the administration’s efforts on AI.
In late July, the Trump administration unveiled an AI Action Plan, which promised “to reject radical climate dogma and bureaucratic red tape” to ensure that the U.S. can “build and maintain vast AI infrastructure and the energy to power it.”
In a statement that was posted on the White House website, Americans for Prosperity’s Brent Gardner said the plan “will ensure America leads the world” on AI. That statement was included along with praise from the likes of Chevron, Palantir, Meta, IBM and the Heritage Foundation.
The plan itself had input from Dean Ball, who was recently an AI advisor at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and earlier a fellow at the Mercatus Center, a conservative think tank that’s received millions of dollars in funding from the Charles G. Koch Charitable Foundation. Ball was “intimately involved in the drafting” of the plan, according to a recent webinar on AI policy hosted by National Journal.
Ball said during the event that the build-out of data centers will likely mean that there’s “more gas, natural gas in particular, used in the United States than there otherwise might have been.”
Ball is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation, a national non-profit whose supporters include the Koch-backed Stand Together Trust.
The Next AI Battle
The fallout of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is already being felt across the renewables industry. Power “developers have canceled 1,891 power projects this year with a combined capacity of 266 GW, with clean energy accounting for 93% of cancellations,” according to analysis by the climate newsletter Distilled.
That’s not necessarily good news for AI, given that new natural gas and nuclear facilities can take much longer to build than renewables.
And there is now a growing backlash to the technology, with a coalition of over 200 environmental groups this month demanding a halt to new U.S. data centers, arguing they are “rapidly increasing demand for energy, driving more fossil fuel pollution, straining water resources and raising electricity prices across the country.”
But Americans for Prosperity has now made one of its political priorities getting federal “permitting reform” legislation passed, which would streamline or eliminate many environmental and other reviews on new energy projects such as data centers.
In a recent petition form sent out to its members, AFP claimed that permitting reform can help “ensure 24/7 reliable power as demand increases, particularly in regions experiencing surging data center growth and electrification trends.” It envisions such legislation as hastening “new pipelines, export terminals and delivery systems” along with expanding “LNG and crude oil exports.”
The Koch network is joined by a coalition of fossil fuel industry groups including the American Petroleum Institute and the American Gas Association, which in early December released a letter calling for passage of “a broader permitting package” around new energy infrastructure projects.
And the effort is also attracting interest from Big Tech.
Sponsors for a mid-December conference in Washington, D.C., that includes U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and features panels on “permitting reform,” “energy for AI,” and “American energy dominance” include the Koch nonprofit organization Stand Together.
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Public sector pensions have ploughed billions into opaque investment funds which are financing ruinous gas projects on the US Gulf Coast
In brief
UK public sector pension schemes are bankrolling rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas production in the US South, posing a major climate threat
US gas projects are reaping rewards from price shocks caused by Trump’s war in Iran
Gas terminals are frequently built in poor neighbourhoods, causing health problems in nearby communities
Trump’s war in Iran has boosted the fortunes of US gas companies – and UK savers are unwittingly bankrolling their expansion.
Sixty local government pension funds have invested a total of £8bn into funds paying for the rapid construction of gas infrastructure on the Gulf Coast of the US. Residents say these terminals are already causing health problems in their communities. Experts say they represent one of the biggest threats to the future of the planet.
Over 7 million school staff, civil servants and other public sector workers either save with, or receive their pension from, local government pension schemes. Our revelations have sparked concerns among local councillors, who have urged fund managers to divest from fossil fuels.
While the companies behind these projects are enjoying a boost from the war in Iran, they could tumble in value as the world switches to renewable forms of energy. Councillor Andrew Scopes, who sits on an advisory panel for West Yorkshire Pension Fund, said: “We will still be paying benefits out in 60 years’ time. We need to be looking beyond the possible short-term gains, at the long-term risk.”
Members of the scheme were dismayed to find what they were bankrolling. “The UK could be funding a safer, healthier future for all via renewable energy generated in the UK that is cheap, safe, clean and owned by us,” said Jane Thewlis, a retired social worker.
The news comes as the government is making changes to the law governing pension schemes. During a debate in the House of Lords, peers from several parties raised the issue of pension fund investments in climate-wrecking companies.
Baroness Hayman, a crossbench peer, told us: “Many UK pension funds are already reducing their exposure to fossil fuels, recognising the risks these investments pose. But with £3 trillion held in UK pensions, and the climate and nature challenge growing, there is a clear opportunity to better protect savers from rising financial and environmental risks.”
A gas explosion
The giant white orbs containing liquefied natural gas (LNG) look almost alien. Scores of these terminals are popping up along the 1,200km Louisiana and Texas coastline, a building frenzy turbo-charged by Trump’s second term. If all the planned terminals are built, the LNG produced in the US would generate the same amount of greenhouse gases each year as every EU country combined, says Jeremy Symons, a former official at the US environmental regulator.
UK pension funds have supported this expansion for years. In 2019, a little-known infrastructure fund called Stonepeak put up $1.3bn to complete the construction of the Calcasieu Pass gas terminal in the south-west corner of Louisiana. Twenty miles inland, building has started on another terminal also funded by Stonepeak.
Calcasieu Pass LNG terminalVenture Global
UK savers in 12 local government pension schemes, including West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire and Worcestershire, have invested over £360m in Stonepeak funds that financed these plants, according to figures from council records and data provider Pitchbook.
Since starting operations, Calcasieu Pass has reported hundreds of emissions violations and paid authorities a $245,000 settlement. That’s unlikely to make much difference to its owner, Venture Global, a major Trump donor. Its shares rocketed by more than 80% after the US and Israel started bombing targets in Iran.
Roishetta Ozane, a resident turned activist, lives near both terminals. She told us that pollution from the nearby gas, petrochemicals and oil infrastructure has caused asthma and an increase of cancer in the area – an account borne out by academic research.
“We’re seeing more women develop health issues that are living near these facilities, having pre-term babies or having miscarriages,” she said. “We’re seeing our air quality deteriorate. We have a drinking water crisis.” She said residents had to deal with noise pollution from construction and the flaring of excess gas from the terminals.
Roishetta Ozane (second left)
Two of her children have asthma. She told us the doctor said pollution may have exacerbated the seizures suffered by her son, who died last year. “When my son passed away, I was like, what are we doing this for?” she said. “We’re fighting for our children, for our future, for our community, but yet they’re dying.”
Further down the coast, a huge fireball at Freeport LNG in June 2022 made the risks of these installations vividly clear. IFM Global Infrastructure Fund – which counts among its investors more than 20 UK pension funds, including Avon, East Sussex and Aberdeen – paid $1.3bn to help build Freeport LNG in 2013. It continues to hold a stake in the project.
Travelling south, the construction boom continues. Right next to the Mexican border, Rio Grande LNG is building a sprawling complex that the NGO Sierra Club estimates will match the emissions of 50 coal-fired power plants every year. Campaigners say the project is already contributing to habitat loss in an area critical for endangered animals such as ocelots, falcons and sea turtles.
French bank Société Générale backed out of funding the controversial project. But it was able to proceed thanks to a $5bn commitment from BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners Fund V – which is supported by nearly £200m of UK savers’ pensions, from Waltham Forest to Greater Manchester.
In total, we found eight US-based LNG terminals backed by UK pension money. Taken together, those terminals would give rise to more CO₂ every year than the entire UK several times over, according to Sierra Club data.
A spokesperson for IFM Investors told us that the fund publicly discloses its infrastructure equity assets. They added: “Natural gas is increasingly utilised as a transition fuel for decarbonisation globally … These assets benefit from investment from long-term, trusted capital partners like pension funds, who can reinvest in them and pave the way for carbon emissions reduction.”
LNG is often promoted as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels. However, a peer-reviewed study found it is 33% worse in terms of planet-heating emissions over a 20-year period compared with coal.
Worcestershire Pension Fund said it invests through structures that mean “exposure to any single asset is indirect, limited, and a very small component of a broader portfolio.” It said the Stonepeak fund in question “publishes detailed annual reports and complies fully with statutory disclosure requirements”.
A greener pension
When it comes to curbing carbon emissions, council pension funds and campaigners have tended to focus on selling their shares in companies like BP and Shell. But a growing portion of pension funds are invested in so-called “private markets”. Typically this involves putting money into a number of big funds, which in turn invest in everything from private equity to property to company loans.
Private markets can offer healthy returns. They’re also something of a black hole for information, which makes following the money much more difficult. And they’re often excluded from the scope of council climate commitments.
The upshot is that even pension schemes that have promised not to invest in fossil fuels have ploughed money into funds that are paying for major gas projects.
Take Waltham Forest Pension Fund, which in 2016 became the first local authority to make such a commitment. Simon Miller, a former councillor who chaired the pension fund committee, said the council already had a number of green goals to improve the lives of residents. “[But] we had a pension fund that was merrily invested in fossil fuels that was absolutely out of lockstep with the political direction and philosophy of the borough.”
The council’s pension fund proceeded to sell its investments in fossil fuel companies over the following five years.
According to its latest report, however, Waltham Forest is still invested in funds managed by Global Infrastructure Partners that have financed Rio Grande LNG and Allete, which owns an 18,000-acre coal mine in North Dakota.
Lewisham Pension Fund has also brought down the emissions associated with its investments after committing to sell its holdings in fossil fuel companies. But it remains invested in a huge infrastructure fund operated by JP Morgan Asset Management. While this fund has substantial investments in renewable energy, it continues to hold a 50% stake in Third Coast, which spilled over 1 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico in 2023.
In February 2024, West Yorkshire Pension Fund said it would no longer lend to the oil, gas and coal sector. According to the new standards set by the authority, councillor Andrew Scopes said, the decision to invest in a Stonepeak fund that bankrolled an LNG plant on Ozane’s doorstep would be “very difficult to justify”.
Jane Thewlis, a campaigner and member of the scheme, said: “We are particularly concerned if [West Yorkshire Pension Fund] is funding LNG infrastructure in the US, which is not compatible with a livable climate. We expect our elected representatives to use our money to fund a safe future – not to hasten the end of humanity.”
West Yorkshire Pension Fund said its environmental, social and governance policy “takes account of the current status and role of gas and oil within the energy transition, particularly with regard to reliability, affordability and coal displacement”. It said LNG is seen as “a bridge between today’s fossil‑fuel‑dominated energy system and a future low or zero‑carbon one”.
JP Morgan, Stonepeak and Waltham Forest council declined to comment on the record. Lewisham council said it cannot comment in a pre-election period. Third Coast, the LNG port operators, Global Infrastructure Partners and other local councils did not respond to requests for comment.
What next?
We are providing our research to campaigners and pension fund advisory panels so they can challenge decision makers on investments in infrastructure funds
New rules mean that council pension funds will be combined into pension fund pools, limiting councillors’ power over investment decisions. We will investigate what that means for funds that have committed to invest responsibly
Parliament is discussing the first of a number of pension reforms, where campaigners are pushing for greater recognition of climate risk
Neo-Fascist Climate Science Denier Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
The UK avoided the need for gas imports worth £1bn in March 2026 thanks to record electricity generation from wind and solar, reveals Carbon Brief analysis.
Wind generation hit a new record for the month of March on the island of Great Britain, up 38% year-on-year, while solar nearly matched the output of last year’s exceptionally sunny spring.
Together, wind and solar generated 11 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in March 2026, up a combined 28% and setting a new record for the month, as shown in the figure below.
Monthly generation from wind and solar in terawatt hours on the island of Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), which has a separate electricity system from the island of Ireland, which includes Northern Ireland. Source: National Energy System Operator (NESO) and Carbon Brief analysis.
This record wind and solar output avoided the need to import 21TWh of gas – roughly 18 fully loaded tankers of liquified natural gas (LNG) – which would have cost around £1bn at current high prices due to the Iran war.
(This is based on gas costing 130p per therm, or £44 per megawatt hour, compared with the range of 120-170p per therm seen over the past month.)
At the same time, the record output from wind and solar saw electricity generation from gas falling 25% year-on-year in March 2026 to the lowest level ever recorded for the month.
Nigel Farage urges you to ignore facts and reality and be a climate science denier like him and his Deputy Richard Tice. He says that Reform UK has received £Millions and £Millions from the fossil fuel industry to promote climate denial and destroy the planet.Donald Trump urges you to be a Climate Science denier like him. He says that he makes millions and millions for destroying the planet, Burn, Baby, Burn and Flood, Baby, Flood.Elon Musk urges you to be a Fascist like him, says that you can ignore facts and reality then.
Climate activists from Greenpeace and Uplift during a demonstration outside the Scottish Court of Session, Edinburgh, on the first day of the Rosebank and Jackdaw judicial review hearing, November 12, 2024
Calcasieu Pass LNG terminalVenture Global
Roishetta Ozane (second left)
