How Netanyahu’s political survival depends on the genocide in Gaza
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On 26 July, the Israeli daily Haaretz ran the headline: “Israel at War: Day 659. Gaza medical sources: At least 25 people killed by Israeli fire, some while waiting for aid.” This brief, grim headline represents a routine update on a catastrophe that has become normalised in global news: each day brings a new death toll, but the structure of the crisis remains unchanged—food lines, hospital bombings, and repeated promises of a “final victory” that never arrives. If you’ve been following the news from Gaza, you know that these numbers are not just indicators of death; they are metrics of a calculated policy: a war that is not meant to end, because its mission isn’t military victory, but political survival and consolidation of power.
Since October 2023, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government quickly realized that ending the war would mean the end of his political career. Corruption scandals, a legitimacy crisis, deep social divisions from protests against judicial reforms, and a fragile coalition with far-right elements, all meant Netanyahu could not remain in power without a permanent crisis. The Gaza war gave him just that. Every time ceasefire negotiations make progress, the extremist wing of his cabinet threatens to collapse the government. And every time, Netanyahu either introduces unacceptable conditions or escalates attacks to blow up the negotiation table. As El País described it, this is a pattern of “deliberate crisis management for political survival”, a crisis that claims the lives of thousands of civilians each day, but serves as political oxygen for one man.
This pattern is not new for Israel. Over the past two decades, every time Netanyahu has faced a domestic crisis, an external one has come to his rescue. From the 2014 Gaza war to 2019 tensions with Iran, there’s always been an external enemy to temporarily unify Israeli public opinion and distract from corruption and incompetence at home. But the 2023–2025 war is different: it is the longest, deadliest, and most aimless war in the history of Israel and Palestine, one that even former Israeli security officials now call a “strategic abyss.” Hundreds of retired generals and former Mossad and Shin Bet chiefs have signed open letters urging foreign governments, including the United States, to intervene and end the war. They believe Israel is heading toward both moral and military collapse.
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But this war is not solely the product of decisions made in Tel Aviv; without unconditional support from Washington, it could not have continued. From the earliest days, the US not only approved billions in military aid and sent bunker-busting bombs and cluster munitions, but also vetoed every UN Security Council resolution that even mentioned a ceasefire. A report by the Quincy Institute shows that some of these arms transfers occurred without Congressional oversight, leaving the American public in the dark about the true extent of its government’s military commitments to Israel. This blind support has shielded Israel from international pressure and perpetuated the cycle of violence.
This scenario is not unfamiliar to Americans. From Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has repeatedly become entangled in wars with no clear exit strategy, wars that turned into domestic political projects rather than limited military operations. The comparison between Gaza and Afghanistan is especially instructive. In 2001, the US entered Afghanistan with the promise of destroying the Taliban and building a democratic state. Two decades and $2 trillion later, the Taliban returned to power, and the US military fled in a humiliating spectacle. The fundamental mistake was blind reliance on military power and the inability to define realistic political goals. Israel today is on the same path. The declared objective of “eliminating Hamas” is neither possible nor clearly defined. Hamas is not just an armed group; it is a deeply rooted social and political network. Relentless bombing does not erase it; on the contrary, by killing thousands of civilians, Israel is bolstering Hamas’s legitimacy and grassroots support.
The human toll of this policy is devastating. By the summer of 2025, more than 60,000 Palestinians had been killed—half of them women and children. Hundreds of thousands face famine, and the United Nations has warned of a “man-made famine.” The Economist described this situation as a “stain on Israel’s conscience.” But this stain is not only moral, it is strategic. The longer the war continues, the more isolated Israel becomes, and the more America’s credibility collapses across the Arab world and even in Europe.
Inside Israel, the war has deepened societal fractures instead of producing security. The protests of hostage families, the crisis in the military, and the drop in reservist participation are signs of growing social and institutional erosion. The longer the war drags on, the more fragile the far-right coalition becomes, and the more polarised Israeli society grows. Even in the US, support for Israel is increasingly contested. Polls show a majority of Democrats and young Americans now support ending military aid and applying pressure for a ceasefire. Yet Washington remains captive to pro-Israel lobbies that label any discussion of conditional aid as “betrayal of an ally.” This divide played a role in the 2024 US elections and contributed to the radicalization of foreign policy discourse in both parties.
Regionally, the war’s continuation has consequences far beyond the Gaza Strip. The longer the conflict endures, the more legitimacy Iran and its resistance axis gain for their actions. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and armed groups in Iraq have all used the Gaza war to strengthen their narrative. At the same time, Russia and China are exploiting the erosion of U.S. credibility to expand their influence in the Middle East, from arms deals with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to energy partnerships with Iran and even informal contacts with Hamas. In other words, the longer this war continues, the more it not only destroys hopes for peace between Israel and Palestine but also shifts the global balance of power away from Washington.
Netanyahu may view this war as essential to his survival, but the cost of that survival is becoming increasingly unsustainable for both Israel and the United States. Israel grows more isolated and vulnerable each day; the US is increasingly seen as complicit in war crimes; and Palestinians are being driven deeper into despair and radicalisation. This is the very formula that turned America’s endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq into disasters: an enemy that multiplies with every bombing, an ever-receding horizon of victory, and a legacy of destruction that will last generations.
If Washington wants to break this cycle, it must change its policy: end unconditional military aid, apply real pressure for a ceasefire, and initiate a political process centered on Palestinian rights. Without such a shift, Haaretz headlines will keep counting: “Israel at War, Day 700… Day 800…” and the deadly queues for food aid will continue to tell the same truth—that this war continues not for security, but for politics. And as the Afghanistan experience showed, no war designed for domestic politics ever ends with honor.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
