Keir Starmer picks up Donald Trump’s papers at the G7 summit in Alberta, Canada, June 2025. Stefan Rousseau/PA
Now that’s what I call the art of the deal.
Ahead of what is predicted to be a bruising set of local and devolved parliamentary elections in May, we’re already getting a taste of the economic consequences of Starmer’s inability to keep Britain out of Trump and Netanyahu’s latest Middle East misadventure.
Of all the G20 nations, Britain’s economy will be worst hit by the war on Iran. That’s according to analysis by the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released yesterday. The OECD’s assessment also has the UK economy growing by just 0.7% this year, downgraded from the 1.2% it predicted in December, before the war began. By contrast, Italy, France and Germany’s growth will only shrink by 0.2% as a result of the war.
Meanwhile – get this – the US actually had its growth forecast upgraded by the OECD due to an increased demand for US oil, all thanks to its illegal war. Now that’s what I call the art of the deal.
How have we ended up with the worst of all worlds? Well, the UK is heavily overreliant on overseas fuel imports and international trade, and fears of higher inflation mean consumer confidence has collapsed – a fancy way of saying that when things feel uncertain, people are less likely to spend.
Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Orcas discuss Genocide-supporting and complicit Zionists. Donald Trump, Keith Starmer, David Lammy, Rachel Reeves, Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are acknowledged as evil genocide-complicit and supporting cnuts.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez makes a speech during an economic forum organized by the El Diario in Madrid, Spain on March 26, 2026. (Photo by Burak Akbulut/Anadolu via Getty Images)
“This decision is part of the decision already made by the Spanish government not to participate in or contribute to a war which was initiated unilaterally and against international law,” said one Spanish minister.
Doubling down on its status as an outlier among European countries that have largely supported or avoided speaking out forcefully against the US-Israeli war on Iran, Spain is closing its airspace to US military planes that are part of the invasion, with Defense Minister Margarita Robles on Monday calling the war “profoundly illegal and profoundly unjust.”
“We don’t authorize either the use of military bases or the use of airspace for actions related to the war in Iran,” Robles told reporters. “I think everyone knows Spain’s position. It’s very clear.”
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez angered President Donald Trump soon after the US and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched their war against Iran on February 28, with one of the first attacks striking a school and killing at least 160 children and teachers.
Sánchez responded to the assault by announcing the US would not be permitted to launch attacks on Iran from Spain’s military bases, prompting Trump to threaten a full trade embargo against the country in retaliation.
On Monday, Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo appeared unfazed by a reporter’s suggestion that closing the country’s airspace to the US could worsen relations with the White House.
“This decision is part of the decision already made by the Spanish government not to participate in or contribute to a war which was initiated unilaterally and against international law,” Cuerpo said simply in a radio interview.
International legal experts have said the war is clear violation of the United Nations Charter, which “prohibits the use of force against another State unless that use of force is authorized by the UN Security Council or is a necessary and proportionate act of individual or collective self-defense in response to an armed attack.”
Spain has closed its airspace to US planes involved in attacks on Iran.
All countries should follow Spain's example. US attacks on Iran have blatantly violated the UN Charter.
Sánchez told the Spanish Congress last Wednesday that the country has “denied the United States the use of the Rota [de la Frontera] and Morón bases for this illegal war.”
“All flight plans involving operations in Iran have been rejected. All of them, including those for refueling aircraft,” said Sánchez.
In the US, Progressive Mass political director Jonathan Cohn said it was “refreshing to see a European country take a hard line against the United States’ illegal and immoral wars.”
US aircraft can continue to use the airspace and land at the bases in emergency situations, and are still able to provide logistics support to 80,000 US forces stationed across Europe.
But as The Guardian reported Monday, 15 US refueling planes were diverted from the Morón de la Frontera and Rota bases to military facilities in France and Germany at the beginning of the war.
The US was also forced to find an alternative location for B-52 and B-1 bombers due to Spain’s policy, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer agreeing to allow Trump to send them to Fairford Air Base in Gloucestershire, England in the first days of the war.
The Seville Air Traffic Control Center has provided navigation support to B-2 Spirit bombers that have traveled from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri to carry out strikes in Iran, but those planes do not enter Spanish airspace, instead crossing the Strait of Gibraltar.
Sánchez has rejected Trump’s criticism of Spain’s policy, noting that the country has also led the way in recent years in recognizing the state of Palestine and speaking out against Israel’s assault, as other European governments eventually did.
“They say that Spain is alone,” the prime minister said earlier this month. “They said the same when we recognized the state of Palestine, and then others followed. We are not alone. We are the first. Those defending the indefensible will be the ones left alone.”
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won.Keir Starmer explains that UK is participating defensively in Trump and Israel’s criminal war for Israel’s genocidal expansion in Iran and states that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.
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Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz holds a security situation assessment meeting with Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, Head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate (AMAN) Shlomi Binder and other senior commanders in Tel Aviv, Israel, on March 07, 2026. [Israeli Ministry of Defense – Anadolu Agency]
A warning by Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir about a potential army “collapse” due to troop shortages has triggered a wave of political reactions in Israel, with opposition figures backing the assessment and allies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu questioning its motives, Anadolu reports.
Israel’s military is currently engaged in conflicts in Iran and Lebanon while continuing strikes in Gaza. The army has also deployed additional forces to the occupied West Bank amid rising violence by Israeli occupiers, which necessitates sending more soldiers there, while ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredi) refuse military service.
While the army has been using its aircraft to attack Iran since Feb. 28, it announced the deployment of four military divisions to southern Lebanon and is deploying large forces in the West Bank, in addition to the forces present in Gaza.
“More than 100,000 reservists are deployed across all fronts, but the army still needs around 15,000 additional troops, including 7,000 to 8,000 combat soldiers,” military spokesperson Effie Defrin told a press briefing Thursday.
A day earlier, Zamir warned in a closed meeting of the Security Cabinet that the army could face “collapse” if the manpower shortage is not addressed, citing expanding missions in southern Lebanon and continued control over roughly half of Gaza.
He explained that the scope of the tasks is “constantly increasing,” with the expansion of military operations in southern Lebanon, and the continued control of about half of Gaza.
“But the number of soldiers is decreasing, especially after the cancellation of the extension of service for regular soldiers, which exacerbates the crisis,” he added.
Amir Yissscharoff, an analyst at Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, told Anadolu that Zamir’s warning was “professional, even as pro-government factions tried to cast it as political.”
Zamir spoke after the government legalized dozens of settlement outposts in the West Bank and as violence by Israeli occupiers escalated, alongside multiple security threats from Iran, Lebanon and Gaza, Yissscharoff said.
“Zamir sounded the alarm about a crisis, and his message was directed primarily at the Israeli domestic audience — he spoke before Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz and other political and military officials,” he said, adding that the message was clear: “We face a problem, and given the military’s expanding missions, everyone must be drafted — including the ultra-Orthodox.”
Attacking Zamir and labeling his remarks as political “misses the point,” Yissscharoff said. “He is addressing a professional problem. Zamir is not the problem; Netanyahu is.”
Haredi draft
Zamir’s remarks came as Netanyahu continued to stall on a military draft bill.
The opposition, along with factions within the nationalist right, argues that everyone — including the ultra-Orthodox — must serve, while the religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism are pushing for legislation that would formally exempt seminary students from military service.
Opposition parties accuse Netanyahu of shielding the religious parties to preserve his governing coalition, dubbing the proposed measure the “draft evasion law.”
Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in June 2024 that Haredi must be drafted and ordered a halt to state funding for religious institutions whose students refuse to serve.
Ultra-Orthodox Jews make up roughly 13% of Israel’s population of approximately 9.7 million. They do not serve in the military, citing religious devotion to Torah study.
While Israeli law requires all citizens over 18 to serve, the Haredi exemption has fueled controversy for decades — a debate that has grown sharper amid Israel’s multiple wars and mounting military casualties, with secular parties demanding the ultra-Orthodox share what they call the “burden of war.”
The current Knesset’s term expires in October, when general elections are expected unless early elections are called. The Knesset passed the 2026 state budget Sunday, allowing the government to avert early elections — a result attributed largely to Netanyahu securing Haredi party support, even without passing legislation cementing their draft exemption.
Yissscharoff stressed that Netanyahu needs the religious parties, and it is in their interest for the government to remain in power.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid sought to capitalize on Zamir’s remarks ahead of the expected elections.
“I want to warn Israeli citizens that we are facing a security catastrophe,” Lapid wrote Thursday on the US social media company X.
“Over 13 years, I served on Israel’s most important security councils and committees — as prime minister, foreign minister, finance minister and a member of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee,” he said. “Throughout all those years, I cannot recall a warning as severe as the one issued by the chief of staff.”
According to Lapid, the army chief told the Security Cabinet he no longer has the means to continue mobilizing reservists, with some soldiers now on their sixth and seventh rotations since October 2023.
“They are completely exhausted,” Lapid said, adding that Zamir also informed the Cabinet that regular forces are in a state of total collapse and that the military does not have enough troops to carry out its missions.
“The government’s continued encouragement of ultra-Orthodox draft evasion constitutes a security threat,” he said, adding that Zamir presented a series of threats, “most of which cannot be mentioned on camera, but the bottom line is: the government is sending the army into a multi-front war with no strategy, no resources and too few soldiers.
“The government will not be able to claim this time that it didn’t know. This is their appointed chief of staff, and they will not be able to politicize him or blame him. From now on, Netanyahu cannot escape responsibility,” Lapid said, calling on the government to immediately cut funding to draft evaders and deploy military police against those who flee service.
He also called on the government to “combat Jewish terrorism by all means” and strip authority from National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir “who publicly supports Jewish terrorists.”
A cry for help
Yair Golan, former deputy chief of staff and leader of the opposition Democrats party, said Zamir’s remarks are “not merely a warning — they are a massive black flag waving over the government’s policy.”
“When the highest military official tells the Cabinet during wartime that the army is struggling to fulfill its missions because of government policy, that is not a situation assessment — it is a cry for help,” he wrote on X.
“A government that continues this policy is one that has abandoned security. It is a dangerous government that promotes Jewish terrorism, draft evasion, and combines anti-Zionism with antisemitism,” he said.
“Despite all the warnings, the government continues to establish more outposts, supports and arms rioters (occupiers), and the result is direct damage to the army’s ability to carry out its real missions. Whoever continues this policy in wartime bears direct responsibility for harming state security,” Golan added.
Former Defense Minister and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman said on X that Zamir warned draft evasion “is harming Israel’s security.”
“The government, as usual, is ignoring warnings before disaster strikes. The army is facing the worst manpower shortage in its history, and everyone must be drafted,” Lieberman added.
Israel has occupied Palestinian territories and land in Lebanon and Syria for decades, and continues to reject withdrawal or the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a speech in Jerusalem on October 16, 2025. [Alex KOLOMOISKY / POOL / AFP via Getty Images]
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he has ordered the military to expand the occupation in southern Lebanon, vowing to continue attacks until Israel achieves its objectives, Anadolu reports.
Israel is “determined to fundamentally change the situation in the north,” Netanyahu said in a video statement released on the US social media platform X.
He said military operations in Lebanon would continue, adding that Israeli forces would act with force until their goals are met.
The Israeli army has pounded Lebanon with airstrikes and launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon since a cross-border attack by Hezbollah on March 2.
The region has been on alert since the US and Israel launched an air offensive on Iran on Feb. 28, so far killing over 1,340 people, including then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes targeting Israel, along with Jordan, Iraq, and Gulf countries hosting US military assets, causing casualties and damage to infrastructure while disrupting global markets and aviation.
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.Keir Starmer explains that UK is actively supporting Israel’s genocidal expansion and repeats his previous quotation that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
A view of the US aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford at a US Navy base in Souda Bay, Crete, where it is set to undergo repairs on March 23, 2026. [Stefanos Rapanis – Anadolu Agency]
Americans have heard this script before. A president says he wants a deal, insists he does not want a wider war, and then quietly builds the military architecture for one anyway. That is where the United States now stands in its war with Iran. Even as Donald Trump talks about a possible settlement and claims there are “major points of agreement,” the Pentagon is preparing to send thousands more troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, adding to a military buildup that already looks less like leverage and more like preparation for a deeper phase of the war. A government serious about winding down a conflict does not keep expanding the force package behind it.
The gap between Washington’s words and Washington’s actions is no longer small enough to dismiss as ordinary diplomatic theater. Trump says contacts with Iran are promising. Tehran has publicly denied direct talks, and Reuters has reported that Iran’s negotiating position has hardened during the war, with demands for guarantees against future attacks and refusal to place new limits on its missile program. That does not look like a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. It looks like an administration using the language of negotiation to buy time while keeping military options open. The question is no longer whether Washington prefers a deal in the abstract. The question is whether “talks” are becoming political cover for continued escalation.
That matters because coalition reluctance does not usually restrain Washington. More often, it leaves Washington compensating with more American assets, more American risk, and eventually more American ownership of a war that was sold as limited.
There is another sign that this war is moving in a more dangerous direction: America is having trouble persuading others to own it. When Trump asked allies to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, several of them declined to send ships. Japan and Australia publicly said they had no immediate plans to participate, and Reutersreported similar hesitation from other partners. That matters because coalition reluctance does not usually restrain Washington. More often, it leaves Washington compensating with more American assets, more American risk, and eventually more American ownership of a war that was sold as limited. A conflict that begins as a joint project can become an overwhelmingly American burden simply because nobody else wants to get pulled in deeper.
This is how mission creep actually happens. It rarely arrives with a formal declaration that the United States is entering a ground war. It comes in pieces: reinforcements to protect bases, troops to secure shipping lanes, special operations contingencies for sensitive sites, and a standing insistence that “all options remain on the table.” Reutersreported last week that U.S. officials were weighing reinforcements that could support operations connected to Hormuz and other possible next steps, while experts warned that securing Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be highly complex and risky even for special operations forces. That is not the language of a conflict staying neatly contained. It is the language of a war searching for its next rationale.
The American public, importantly, is not asking for this. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last week found that 65 percent of Americans believe Trump will order troops into a large-scale ground war in Iran, but only 7 percent support such an idea. An AP-NORC poll published found that most Americans believe recent U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, and about six in ten oppose deploying U.S. ground troops to fight there. Those numbers matter because they expose the fiction that a deeper war would rest on any real democratic consensus. Washington is not moving toward a broader conflict because the public has embraced one. It is moving there in spite of the public’s clear warning.
That should disturb Americans even if they have no sympathy at all for the Iranian government. One does not have to romanticise Tehran to see the danger of what Washington is doing. The United States and Israel may share the current war effort, but any ground phase would be paid for primarily by Americans, fought primarily by Americans, and politically owned in Washington long after today’s rhetoric about quick outcomes has faded. That is the part of “supporting an ally” that the White House prefers to leave vague. Air campaigns can be sold as controlled and temporary. Ground commitments are different. They create their own logic, their own momentum, and their own excuses for staying longer than promised.
Even now, after weeks of US-Israeli strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains a live strategic problem, negotiations remain uncertain, and military planners are still talking in terms of options rather than outcomes.
Nor is there any reason to think a ground phase would solve the political problem that air power has failed to solve. Iran is not a target that can simply be bullied into strategic surrender by adding more American bodies to the region. Even now, after weeks of US-Israeli strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains a live strategic problem, negotiations remain uncertain, and military planners are still talking in terms of options rather than outcomes. That is usually a sign that the advertised strategy has stalled. When that happens, Washington has a long habit of treating escalation not as proof of failure but as the remedy for failure. That is how bad wars become bigger wars.
What makes this moment especially dangerous is that the administration still wants the political benefits of sounding restrained while preparing for the military benefits of going further. It wants to say “deal” and move troops at the same time. It wants to claim this is not another open-ended American war while creating precisely the conditions from which open-ended American wars emerge. For Middle East Monitor readers, this should be understood clearly: Washington is not standing outside this conflict trying to calm it. It is deep inside it, helping shape the next phase while pretending the next phase may never come. If the White House truly wanted to prevent a ground war, it would stop building one. Until then, Americans should call this what it is—not prudence, not deterrence, but a familiar and dangerous drift toward a war the country has not chosen and does not want.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Straight of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won.Keir Starmer explains that UK is participating defensively in Trump and Israel’s criminal war for Israel’s genocidal expansion in Iran and states that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.
