One of the many occasions UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak uses a private jet.
Political leaders owe their citizens the truth about the costs and the challenges of the energy transition on a warming planet. Last week, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak failed – and California Governor Gavin Newsom passed – that test.
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If Sunak had mustered the courage to tell Brits the truth, rather than throwing up flack about excessive costs and burdens, he could have taken a cue from Newsom and said this instead: “The cost-of-living crisis is a fossil fuel crisis. Inflation persists. It’s not complicated. It’s not complicated. It’s the burning of oil. It’s the burning of gas. It’s the burning of coal – and we need to call that out.”
“The rise in energy prices started last winter, when many countries experienced low gas stocks, leading to a rise in gas prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and volatile market conditions led to further price hikes,” wrote van Halm. European gas prices peaked in August 2022 at more than €300 per megawatt-hour (/MWh), she noted, when before the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European gas prices were regularly around €10–20/MWh.
Image of InBedWithBigOil by Not Here To Be Liked + Hex Prints from Just Stop Oil’s You May Find Yourself… art auction. Featuring Rishi Sunak, Fossil Fuels and Rupert Murdoch.
Protesters demonstrate against the British government’s approval of the Rosebank oil field’s development. Photograph: Lucy North/PA
Even if the 2050 goal is still met, postponing action – as the UK has done – will cause more heat and damage
Postponing action and taking a slower route to net zero emissions by 2050 will worsen the climate crisis even if the goal is still reached by that date, the new chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned.
Prof Jim Skea also said that approving new oil and gas fields only increased the already large amount of reserves that will have to be kept in the ground if global heating limits are to be reached.
The IPCC is the world’s foremost authority on climate change, under which thousands of the world’s best experts give advice to the 195 nations that founded the body. It does not comment on the climate policies of individual nations, but Skea’s comments on Monday clearly indicate that the recent actions of the UK government has slowed climate action, despite IPCC scientists warning of “a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all”.
The UK is considered one of the most nature-depleted countries in the world. This is not surprising given its history of early industrialisation and agricultural intensification.
These islands have lost species and unique habitats have shrunk to tiny remnants. Nearly every landscape and view has transformed.
What is more surprising is that over the last 50 years or so, from when scientists started to collect information about biodiversity systematically, there has been no let-up in that downward slide.
More than 750 assessed species have declined by 19% on average since monitoring began in 1970. The losses continue despite the heroic efforts of many passionate people and organisations. Today, out of over 10,000 species assessed, 16% (1,500, or one in six) are threatened with extinction.
That is the sobering conclusion of the latest state of nature report, compiled by experts from over 60 of the top research and conservation organisations in the UK, using the latest and most accurate information about biodiversity on land, in freshwater, around the coast and in the ocean.
The evidence that species and habitats are being lost is clear. And yet, as the report shows, there has never been a better understanding of the state of nature and, importantly, what is needed to fix it.
Nature continues to decline
Everyone depends on nature for the things it provides for free: so-called ecosystem services like healthy food, materials, clean air and water. You could add human wellbeing, physical and mental health – and for many, inspiration, solace and joy.
There is cause to protect nature because it aligns with our values, from the moral responsibility we feel to future generations to the intrinsic worth we know nature has. These are all good reasons, but self-preservation is compelling.
The new report presents evidence on how and why nature is changing in the UK and in its four constituent countries. To do this, the authors analysed three measures: species abundance (the number of individuals), species distribution (the proportion of sites occupied) and national extinction risk.
These measures have been assessed for hundreds – and in some cases thousands – of species native to the UK. Our new findings are in line with previous reports (2013, 2016, 2019) in pointing to a pattern of continued biodiversity loss.
The threatened marsh fritillary butterfly. Patrick Cashman/RSPB
The new report’s key findings include:
The distributions of almost 5,000 invertebrate species have on average shrunk by 13% since 1970. Strong declines were seen in insect groups that perform key ecosystem functions, including pollinators (18% decrease) and pest controllers (34% decrease).
The distributions of 54% of flowering plant species and 59% of bryophytes (mosses and liverworts) have decreased across Britain since 1970. By comparison, only 15% and 26% of these groups have increased respectively.
The abundance of 13 species of seabird has fallen by an average of 24% in the UK since 1986. But these results pre-date an ongoing outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, which has killed thousands of seabirds, some belonging to populations constituting the bulk of an entire species.
The report shows that climate change – which is predominantly caused by burning fossil fuels – is among the biggest threats to wildlife in all ecosystems. The intensive way in which land is managed for farming (with the loss of hedgerows, farm ponds and scruffy margins and the increasing use of pesticides and fertilisers, as well as changes in crops and cropping patterns) is also a major driver of biodiversity loss, and contributes to climate change.
At sea, unsustainable fishing practices are a major factor. Added to these pressures on wildlife are invasive species, pollution and for some, such as birds of prey, persecution.
Solving all of these problems will involve several actions that can be joined up to support each other. This must be swift and extensive to be effective.
The report establishes what is known about the success or failure of conservation efforts. Fortunately, there are many success stories. Species like natterjack toads, Duke of Burgundy butterflies, bitterns, and large marsh grasshoppers have all benefited from bespoke conservation projects and are bouncing back.
Natterjack toads cling on in a handful of shallow coastal pools. Andy Hay/RSPB
Cairngorms Connect is the UK’s largest habitat restoration project, covering 60,000 hectares in the Scottish national park. It aims to restore native woodland, peatlands and rivers over the next 200 years. This is the scale at which conservationists need to operate in order to reverse nature’s decline.
Recovery by 2050?
It is only through the collective efforts of thousands of people, most of them volunteers, that we can report on the state of nature with such clarity and breadth. Without their enthusiasm, commitment and skill, we’d only have a sketchy understanding of how the environment is changing, and whether conservation efforts are making a difference.
The 2023 state of nature report is timely given the recent adoption of global targets to recover nature. The Convention on Biological Diversity’s new global framework, signed by nearly 200 countries in December 2022, aims to maintain, enhance, restore and expand ecosystems, reduce the number of species threatened with extinction and increase the abundance of native species by 2030, putting nature on a path to recovery by 2050.
Restoring meadows on farmland could benefit pollinating insects. Angel217/Shutterstock
To halt and reverse biodiversity loss in the UK, efforts to conserve and restore species and habitats must ramp up. But the underlying drivers of this loss must be addressed too, especially those attached to our food system.
That means making food production more sustainable and nature-friendly on land and at sea, and adjusting our diets to cut demand for products that drive the loss of nature, such as meat.
Nature-based solutions to climate change, such as restoring and protecting carbon-absorbing forests and wetlands in river catchments, or restoring coastal habitats, can also boost biodiversity if well designed (think saving two birds with one tree).
We have never had a better understanding of the state of nature and what is needed to fix it. Now we need action.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
London faces the “incredibly worrying” prospect of enduring days that hit 45C (113F) due to the worsening climate crisis, its mayor, Sadiq Khan, told the Guardian at a climate summit in New York where governments have gathered to discuss how to best cope with searing temperatures.
Khan said an interim independent climate resilience report for London had found the capital could experience multiple 45C days “in the foreseeable future”, potentially buckling various basic functions of the city. “It means the Underground is not fit for purpose, some of the homes are too hot in the daytime, care homes and schools too,” Khan said.
“It means we have to adapt for those temperatures now. It’s now time for those who are delaying action to wake up and smell the coffee because this is happening now. It’s now and it’s happening to us.”
Just ahead of U.N. climate summit in New York City, analysis calls on governments to halt planned gas and oil projects
Climate activists assembled at the White House during the People vs Fossil Fuels week of direct action in Oct. 2021. Credit: Dana Drugmand
United Nations chief António Guterres has called on nations to arrive at September 20’s high-level climate summit in New York City with firm commitments for ending fossil fuel production.
So far, however, the world’s top 20 oil and gas extractors have enough production planned to generate 173 billion tons of carbon pollution by 2050 — more than enough to blow past their Paris Agreement commitments and heat the world well beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius above historical temperatures. The greatest polluter among them will be the United States.
Those are some of the findings in a new report from the group Oil Change International, which has found that these 20 countries — dubbed the “planet wreckers” — are going to be responsible for almost 90 percent of the expected carbon emissions from planned oil and gas projects between 2023 and 2050.
“A handful of the world’s richest nations are gambling our global future by failing to act and ignoring the scientific calls and evidence that we need to rapidly phase out fossil fuels,” said Kelly Trout, co-director of research at Oil Change International, who co-authored the report with colleague Romain Ioualalen.
“Most countries are unfortunately still moving in the wrong direction,” she said.
Oil and gas projects already planned by these nations will generate climate-heating CO2 emissions equivalent to 1,082 new coal plants, according to the report.
Based on their current plans, just five countries — the U.S. Canada, Norway, Australia, and the UK — will account for 51 percent of all new oil and gas projects through 2050, Trout found in her research.
“Among all of the countries that we call out in the report, these are the five that have the greatest economic means and capacity to actually be phasing out their oil and gas production the fastest,” Trout said.
The U.S. is both the largest historical carbon emitter and the world’s top oil and gas producer. Dubbed “planet wrecker in chief” in the report, it is on course to drive the most carbon pollution from planned oil and gas expansion by far. New oil and gas extraction in the U.S. will account for more than one-third of all planned projects over the next 25 years, creating 72.5 billion tons of CO2 emissions through 2050.
Canada, which is on track for 18.6 billion tons of cumulative carbon pollution through 2050, came in second.
Russia, the world’s second largest gas extractor and third largest oil producer, ranked third with 17.3 billion tons of CO2 expected from new production through 2050. Iran ranked fourth with 9.7 billion tons, and China rounded out the top five at 8.9 billion tons of expected carbon pollution.
Trout was not surprised by the outsized role of the U.S. “It’s a reflection of the reality that the oil and gas industry’s expansion has been unchecked for many years now in the United States,” she said. “President Biden has put very few limits on the oil and gas industry, and has even enabled the sort of expansion that we’re warning about in this report.”
Since the beginning of 2023, the Biden administration has approved construction of multiple liquid natural gas export facilities.
Among the moves that have further outraged environmentalists, in March, the administration approved the Willow Project, a major ConocoPhilips oil drilling venture in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, a federal wilderness on Alaska’s North Shore. Estimates put up to 600 million barrels of oil in the area where the project will be located.
Just two weeks later, at the end of March, the Department of Interior held a large oil and gas lease sale in the Gulf of Mexico, leasing 313 tracts across 1.6 million acres.
In June, as part of the debt ceiling deal negotiated between congressional Republicans and the White House, federal agencies fast-tracked Mountain Valley Pipeline, which will carry fracked gas about 300 miles from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia.
President Biden has also resisted calls from climate advocates to formally declare a climate emergency, even as the annual number of billion-dollar climate disasters continues to mount. Among them: Phoenix, Arizona set a new record for enduring 31 consecutive days over 110 degrees Fahrenheit, Vermont suffered its worst flooding in nearly a century, and the Hawaiian city of Lahaina was destroyed by one of the deadliest wildfires in U.S. history.
In an August interview on the Weather Channel, Biden said he had “practically” declared a climate emergency, a statement that angered climate activists seeking more concrete action.
Against this backdrop, tens of thousands are expected to take to the streets of New York on September 17 for a “March to End Fossil Fuels,” some with the explicit demand that President Biden stop U.S. expansion of oil and gas development. Mid-September actions and protests are also being planned in cities and towns worldwide.
“Thousands of folks will be marching, not just in New York City but across the world to just say our future is on the line,” Trout said, “and a livable future for us all is completely incompatible with the expansion and continuation of the fossil fuel industry.”
