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• by Alice Johnson ImAliceJohnson

Americans have heard this script before. A president says he wants a deal, insists he does not want a wider war, and then quietly builds the military architecture for one anyway. That is where the United States now stands in its war with Iran. Even as Donald Trump talks about a possible settlement and claims there are “major points of agreement,” the Pentagon is preparing to send thousands more troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, adding to a military buildup that already looks less like leverage and more like preparation for a deeper phase of the war. A government serious about winding down a conflict does not keep expanding the force package behind it.

The gap between Washington’s words and Washington’s actions is no longer small enough to dismiss as ordinary diplomatic theater. Trump says contacts with Iran are promising. Tehran has publicly denied direct talks, and Reuters has reported that Iran’s negotiating position has hardened during the war, with demands for guarantees against future attacks and refusal to place new limits on its missile program. That does not look like a near-term diplomatic breakthrough. It looks like an administration using the language of negotiation to buy time while keeping military options open. The question is no longer whether Washington prefers a deal in the abstract. The question is whether “talks” are becoming political cover for continued escalation.

That matters because coalition reluctance does not usually restrain Washington. More often, it leaves Washington compensating with more American assets, more American risk, and eventually more American ownership of a war that was sold as limited.

There is another sign that this war is moving in a more dangerous direction: America is having trouble persuading others to own it. When Trump asked allies to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, several of them declined to send ships. Japan and Australia publicly said they had no immediate plans to participate, and Reuters reported similar hesitation from other partners. That matters because coalition reluctance does not usually restrain Washington. More often, it leaves Washington compensating with more American assets, more American risk, and eventually more American ownership of a war that was sold as limited. A conflict that begins as a joint project can become an overwhelmingly American burden simply because nobody else wants to get pulled in deeper.

This is how mission creep actually happens. It rarely arrives with a formal declaration that the United States is entering a ground war. It comes in pieces: reinforcements to protect bases, troops to secure shipping lanes, special operations contingencies for sensitive sites, and a standing insistence that “all options remain on the table.” Reuters reported last week that U.S. officials were weighing reinforcements that could support operations connected to Hormuz and other possible next steps, while experts warned that securing Iran’s uranium stockpiles would be highly complex and risky even for special operations forces. That is not the language of a conflict staying neatly contained. It is the language of a war searching for its next rationale.

When power becomes a trap: America’s strategic deadlock in Iran

The American public, importantly, is not asking for this. A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last week found that 65 percent of Americans believe Trump will order troops into a large-scale ground war in Iran, but only 7 percent support such an idea. An AP-NORC poll published found that most Americans believe recent U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far, and about six in ten oppose deploying U.S. ground troops to fight there. Those numbers matter because they expose the fiction that a deeper war would rest on any real democratic consensus. Washington is not moving toward a broader conflict because the public has embraced one. It is moving there in spite of the public’s clear warning.

That should disturb Americans even if they have no sympathy at all for the Iranian government. One does not have to romanticise Tehran to see the danger of what Washington is doing. The United States and Israel may share the current war effort, but any ground phase would be paid for primarily by Americans, fought primarily by Americans, and politically owned in Washington long after today’s rhetoric about quick outcomes has faded. That is the part of “supporting an ally” that the White House prefers to leave vague. Air campaigns can be sold as controlled and temporary. Ground commitments are different. They create their own logic, their own momentum, and their own excuses for staying longer than promised.

Even now, after weeks of US-Israeli strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains a live strategic problem, negotiations remain uncertain, and military planners are still talking in terms of options rather than outcomes.

Nor is there any reason to think a ground phase would solve the political problem that air power has failed to solve. Iran is not a target that can simply be bullied into strategic surrender by adding more American bodies to the region. Even now, after weeks of US-Israeli strikes, the Strait of Hormuz remains a live strategic problem, negotiations remain uncertain, and military planners are still talking in terms of options rather than outcomes. That is usually a sign that the advertised strategy has stalled. When that happens, Washington has a long habit of treating escalation not as proof of failure but as the remedy for failure. That is how bad wars become bigger wars.

What makes this moment especially dangerous is that the administration still wants the political benefits of sounding restrained while preparing for the military benefits of going further. It wants to say “deal” and move troops at the same time. It wants to claim this is not another open-ended American war while creating precisely the conditions from which open-ended American wars emerge. For Middle East Monitor readers, this should be understood clearly: Washington is not standing outside this conflict trying to calm it. It is deep inside it, helping shape the next phase while pretending the next phase may never come. If the White House truly wanted to prevent a ground war, it would stop building one. Until then, Americans should call this what it is—not prudence, not deterrence, but a familiar and dangerous drift toward a war the country has not chosen and does not want.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

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