‘Until energy markets calm, the squeeze will persist’ on UK households, says the CEBR consultancy. Photograph: Jill Mead/The Guardian
Centre for Economics and Business Research calculates effect of inflation and wage stagnation to end of 2027
UK households will have suffered a £2,400 financial hit, on average, from the Iran war by the end of 2027, new analysis shows.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has calculated that the jump in inflation since the conflict began, and weaker wage growth, will knock £1,100 off the real income of the average UK household in 2026, and by a further £1,300 in 2027.
This adds up to a total of £70.4bn that will be wiped off UK households’ real disposable incomes by the Middle East conflict, according to the CEBR, an economic consultancy.
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Energy bills across Great Britain are scheduled to rise in October, after the regulator, Ofgem, decided to lift its quarterly price cap by 4%.
Last week, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit thinktank (ECIU) calculated that higher wholesale oil and gas prices since the start of the US-Iran war, on 28 February, will add an estimated £9.8bn to UK energy and road transport costs. UK gas and electricity users face paying an extra £190m for each week the conflict continues, the ECIU found.
Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Strait of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.Donald Trump sings and dances, says that it’s fun to kill everyone … unless he gets distracted or falls asleep.Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.
President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth attend a dignified transfer for US service members killed during operations in the Middle East, at Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware, on July 22, 2026. (Photo by Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
Trump has “lost the Iran War in every way possible in less than six months,” said one critic.
The illegal war with Iran that President Donald Trump said would be over in a matter of weeks entered its sixth month on Friday, and there is little sign of it wrapping up in the near future.
A Friday report in The Washington Post marking the six-month anniversary of the illegal war noted that Trump’s ability to decisively win the conflict declined markedly “after Iranian leaders discovered that they could withstand intense bombardment and slowly degrade the world’s most powerful military with a cheap combination of mines and drones.”
The biggest weapon in Iran’s arsenal has been its ability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for petroleum. Since the strait’s closure, oil and gas prices have soared, costing US consumers an estimated $71.5 billion more to fill up their cars than they otherwise would have paid.
Trump this week has tried to claim that the strait has actually been reopened, but the Post found that the president’s proclamations do not match reality.
“More than 100 ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz on average every day before the war,” the Post wrote. “Just five went through on one day this week, according to Kpler, a commodities and shipping tracker.”
A Friday report in The Associated Press focused on the White House’s announcements this week of new measures to put economic pressure on Iran, which are a sign that the administration no longer thinks it can use military force to force Tehran’s hand.
“The turn to using sanctions as the cudgel of choice,” wrote the AP, “comes as the administration weighs diminished munitions stockpiles after months of war, sparking concerns that the prolonged conflict could undermine US military readiness in other parts of the globe.”
The AP also flagged a shift in rhetoric from Trump, who once promised the war would end quickly but now says he’s “not in a hurry” to end the campaign.
Harrison Mann, a former US Defense Intelligence Agency officer, wrote in an analysis published by Zeteo on Thursday that Trump has “lost the Iran War in every way possible in less than six months,” which he said would mark “the arrogant, violent end of American dominance in the Middle East.”
In fact, Mann argued that Trump lost the Iran War three different ways: The first in his failed attempt to force regime change in Tehran, the second in an aborted campaign to incite an Iranian Kurdish uprising, and finally in his desperate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
All of these failures have combined to put Iran in a decisively stronger position than it was in before the war began, Mann wrote.
“After another four months of Trump threats, half-hearted bombing runs, and not one but two US blockades of Iran, Tehran’s military exercises formal authority over at least a third of the ships transiting the strait,” he wrote. “Plus, it now regularly shoots at ‘unauthorized’ ships with impunity.”
US Rep. Don Breyer (D-Va.) summed up the failure of Trump’s war in a Friday social media post.
“When Trump began his illegal, unpopular war with Iran, he said it would last a week,” Breyer wrote. “SIX MONTHS later: The administration has lied about our casualties and the deaths of civilians, the stated objectives haven’t been met, Iran has a new economic weapon in the Strait of Hormuz, the region is less stable, our prices are higher, our allies are angry, our adversaries are emboldened, and there’s no end in sight.”
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Donald Trump calls for help from NATO allies in securing the Strait of Hormuz despite saying on 7 March 2026 that they don’t need people to join wars after they’ve already won. He’s challenged with the claim that he lies as much as the IDF.Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
A motorist fills up their car at a petrol station in Colorado, August 12, 2026
UNITED STATES oil reserves have sunk to a 40-year low, it was reported today.
They are so low that there could be damage to the massive caverns holding them.
CNBC is reporting that the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen below 300 million barrels for the first time since it was filled in the early 1980s, after Washington released 172 million barrels in response to supply disruptions caused by the illegal war launched by the US and Israeli war on Iran on February 28.
Oil stocks are projected to fall to around 243 million barrels, prompting experts to warn that the rapid reduction could damage the underground salt caverns used to store the oil, reduce the reserve’s ability to respond to future energy emergencies, and leave critical infrastructure at increased operational risk, according to reports.
Energy experts told CNBC that while the US Department of Energy says the reserve can safely operate with as little as 70 million barrels, the practical operational floor is closer to 250–300 million barrels, warning that repeated large-scale releases over decades have weakened the ageing storage system.
Power-mad orange gasbag Donald Trump says Burn, Baby, Burn.Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.
An Arco station in Washington state sells gas starting at $4.73 per gallon in this photo posted to social media on August 17, 2026. (Photo by The Elk Plain Drifter/X)
Trump campaigned on fixing the affordability crisis but defends high gas prices as the cost of preventing Iran from building nuclear weapons that his own administration said Tehran is not trying to build.
The American Automobile Association reported Monday that drivers are paying more at the pump than ever before for this point in August as President Donald Trump’s war on Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies—and he says he won’t apologize for the pain his illegal war of choice is inflicting upon consumers.
AAA said the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline stood at $4.06 on Monday, more than 92 cents higher than a year ago and double the $1.85 recently promised by Trump. The price is the highest ever recorded for mid-August, according to GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan. In California and Hawaii, average prices are approaching—or exceeding—$5.40 per gallon.
The record gas prices come amid the protracted US-Israeli war on Iran that has killed thousands of people and severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy artery through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass. According to Reuters, only five vessels traversed the strait Saturday, and none did so Sunday. Brent crude was trading near $89 per barrel on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was above $82.
Quite a side-by-side video of Trump talking gas prices
While Trump has said the war is “over” or nearly over dozens of times—The Guardian’s Robert Tait recently called the recurrent spectacle his “own Groundhog Day”—Iran currently appears to have the upper hand, as shipping has overwhelmingly avoided the US-supported route through the Strait of Hormuz, with most vessels using a course set by Tehran or eschewing the waterway altogether.
The Guardian reported Monday that US households have collectively spent an additional $56.4 billion on gasoline over the past six months—an average of roughly $477 per home. Meanwhile, major oil companies raked in a combined $90 billion in profits during the second quarter.
Trump, who campaigned on promises to tackle the affordability crisis, has repeatedly defended high gas prices as the cost of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons that every administration since George W. Bush’s—including his own—has said Tehran is not seeking to build.
“For you to pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember, you’re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have… a nuclear weapon,” Trump said Friday during a speech to law enforcement officers in Garden City, New York.
“So remember that when you have to pay a little bit more, you’re at $4; it’s OK… I’ll never apologize, I did the right thing,” the president added to raucous applause.
Americans today will spend $338 million more on gasoline than they did one year ago, or $2.35 billion more every week. https://t.co/M7EcIMtt4w
Critics slammed Trump’s remarks, with Congresswoman Shontel Brown (D-Ohio) noting on Monday that, while “Trump’s family got rich off of his failed war,” the American people—including his own supporters—“got screwed.”
“Now he wants to us to smile and accept the higher prices he caused,” she added.
Climate science denier Donald Trump confirms that he knows nothing about democracy and that more liquid gold is being secured according to his policy of global privateering.Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
Demonstrators from CND and Fairford Action during an emergency protest outside the main gate of RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, following an attack on Iran by a US B-1 bomber stationed there earlier this week, July 25, 2026
Peace activists and trade unionists to gather at RAF Fairford to protest against US bombers taking off from Britain to strike Iran
WORKERS and campaigners are demanding Andy Burnham put an end to US President Donald Trump’s use of British bases for his war on Iran.
Activists from around the country are to gather at RAF Fairford on Saturday to tell the new Prime Minister to break from his predecessor and end British complicity in “illegal” and “senseless” US wars.
“Trump’s brutal and reckless illegal war is making the British population a target and pushing the global economy to the brink of recession,” Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament general secretary Sophie Bolt said.
“If Andy Burnham wants to keep the British public safe, he needs to stop dragging Britain deeper into this illegal war on Iran and call time on the use of British bases like Fairford,” she added.
Donald Trump sings and dances, says that it’s fun to kill everyone … unless he gets distracted or falls asleep.Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
A motorist fills up their car at a petrol station in Colorado, August 12, 2026
