The main driver for the increase in the forecast energy price cap is rising wholesale gas and electricity prices. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA
Cornwall Insight predicts rise in price cap of nearly 13% in Great Britain as Iran war pushes up gas costs
Energy bills for households in Great Britain could increase by more than £200 a year to almost £1,900 from this summer in “a kick in the teeth” for millions struggling with the cost of living crisis.
A typical gas and electricity bill is forecast to rise to the equivalent of £1,850 a year from July under the industry regulator Ofgem’s quarterly price cap, according to analysis by the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight.
The expected level is nearly 13% higher than the £1,641 cap on energy bills set for April to June, adding £209 to a typical annual bill, after the Iran war caused the UK’s gas market price to double earlier this year.
The main driver for the increase is rising wholesale energy prices, according to Cornwall. Prices climbed sharply in February and March after Tehran effectively cut off Gulf energy supplies to the global market by shutting the strait of Hormuz in response to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.
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Cornwall said that, even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, “the physical damage to infrastructure, and lingering effect of disrupted supply, means a fall back to April’s price cap levels in the autumn looks unlikely”.
Its principal consultant, Craig Lowrey, said: “If the cap stays at a similar level as July, that is when the government will need to think seriously about targeted support for the most vulnerable.
Orcas discuss Donald Trump and the killer apes’ concept of democracy. Front Orca warns that Trump is crashing his country’s economy and that everything he does he does for the fantastically wealthy.
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after arriving on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on May 15, 2026. (Photo by Alex Wroblewski/AFP via Getty Images)
“The only realistic path to a diplomatic breakthrough would require Washington to engage more directly with the structure and substance of the Iranian proposal itself,” said a national security expert.
With the economic impact of the war on Iran linked to President Donald Trump’s plummeting approval rating, the president issued his latest threat to destroy the Middle Eastern country Sunday as he demanded negotiators “get moving, FAST” to end the conflict the US and Israel began by choice in February.
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking,” said the president in a Truth Social post, adding that if a peace deal is not reached soon, “there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal last week; the country has reportedly offered significant concessions on its uranium enrichment, but seeks to have separate nuclear talks after achieving peace and reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which the Iranians effectively closed in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks.
Since launching the conflict, Trump has demanded the dismantling of Iran’s missile arsenal as well as its nuclear program, which Iran has said is not for military purposes, and has called for the country to cut ties with its regional allies.
Iran’s Mehr news agency said Sunday that Trump had offered “no tangible concessions” in his response to the Iranians’ latest proposal.
“The United States,” said the news outlet, “wants to obtain concessions that it failed to obtain during the war, which will lead to an impasse in the negotiations.”
Trump told Fox News in Beijing over the weekend that the Iranians are “crazy, and you know what? Because of that, they cannot have a nuclear weapon,” explaining why he viewed it as “unacceptable” for nuclear talks to take place separately after a peace deal is brokered.
Trump reportedly spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday about the possibility of renewing strikes on Iran, which would break a ceasefire that was reached more than a month ago.
Danny Citrinowicz, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, said Sunday that “the only realistic path to a diplomatic breakthrough would require Washington to engage more directly with the structure and substance of the Iranian proposal itself.”
“Iran’s priorities remain consistent: ending what it views as economic siege conditions, reopening maritime access and reducing pressure in the Gulf, negotiating an end to the broader conflict, and only afterward addressing the nuclear issue,” said Citrinowicz. “At the present moment, it is difficult to see the Iranian leadership agreeing to any framework that does not meaningfully engage with those core demands.”
As with Trump’s earlier threats of violence, including one in April in which he declared that Iran’s entire civilization would die, “never to be brought back again,” Iranian officials said the president’s latest comments—which followed his posting of an image of himself on a military ship accompanied by the words, “It was the calm before the storm”—would not be tolerated.
A spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces, Abolfazl Shakarchi, told Mehr that “repeating any folly to compensate for America’s disgrace in the Third Imposed War against Iran will result in nothing but receiving more crushing and severe blows.”
Reporting for Al Jazeera, correspondent Almigdad Alruhaid said that the “kind of language” displayed by Trump on Sunday “is not acceptable here in Tehran. They are projecting defiance rather than [giving] an immediate response to this kind of rhetoric.”
“Behind all of this rhetoric, there is awareness that the diplomatic window right now is narrowing,” said Alruhid.
Meanwhile, US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) urged Trump to “hurt them more” in order to force a deal, calling on the president to go through with bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure as he’s threatened to in recent months.
Uber-warmonger Lindsey Graham calls on Trump to bomb Iran's energy infrastructure.
The reason why Trump didn't do this during the war – despite threatening it – was because he realized Tehran would retaliate and take out the energy infrastructure in the GCC states. This would… pic.twitter.com/rvrewkavNr
“The reason why Trump didn’t do this during the war—despite threatening it—was because he realized Tehran would retaliate and take out the energy infrastructure in the [Gulf Cooperation Council] states,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “This would lead to a far worse oil crisis—one rooted in production problems, not just a bottleneck in the Persian Gulf.”
“The global economy would be thrown into a deep recession. Fuel shortages would lead to food shortages worldwide. Trump’s presidency would be destroyed,” he said. “None of this matters to Lindsey. He’ll burn the entire planet as long as he gets his war. Trump’s biggest mistake has been to listen to Lindsey and his allies.”
Donald Trump sings and dances, says that it’s fun to kill everyone …Orcas discuss rotting brain, front Orca says disinhibition and swearing are typical and common symptoms, small Orca speaks bluntly.
President Donald Trump briefs reporters after he concluded his trip to Beijing aboard Air Force One on May 15, 2026 as he returns to the United States. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
“No American should be comfortable with the president of the United States accusing a reporter of treason for critical reporting.”
President Donald Trump on Friday sparked alarm among press freedom advocates when he accused New York Times reported David Sanger of committing “treason” for portraying his illegal war with Iran in a negative light.
Speaking with journalists aboard Air Force One on his flight home from China, Trump was asked by Sanger about his failure to accomplish political changes in Iran that he swore to achieve when he launched the war without congressional authorization in late February.
“I had a total military victory,” Trump replied. “But the fake news, guys like you, write incorrectly. You’re a fake guy, and guys like you write incorrectly. We had a total military victory. We knocked out their entire navy, we knocked out their entire air force, we knocked out all their anti-aircraft weaponry.”
Trump to NYT's David Sanger: "I had a total military victory. But the fake news, guys like you, write incorrectly. You're a fake guy. We had a total military victory. I actually think it's sort of treasonous what you write. You should be ashamed of yourself. I actually think it's… pic.twitter.com/QK421YHKtq
Despite this purported “total victory,” however, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and has prevented commercial vessels from traveling through it for the last two months.
After attacking the Times’ reporting about the Iran War, the president pivoted to impugning Sanger’s patriotism.
“I actually think it’s sort of treasonous what you write,” the president said. “You and The New York Times, and CNN, I would say, are the worst… You should be ashamed of yourself. I actually think it’s treason.”
The Times on Tuesday reported that the Trump administration’s “public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what US intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers, and underground facilities.”
Hours after the president’s tirade against Sanger—which echoed Trump’s previous remarks about media coverage of the war—New York Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander released a statement defending its reporting on the Iran war.
“Reporting isn’t treason,” Stadtlander said. “It’s foundational to a free press and the work that America’s founders wrote the First Amendment to protect. That includes making clear when the claims of government officials and the reality of their actions don’t line up… We will continue this important, constitutionally protected work.”
Trump’s treason accusation also drew a rebuke from Will Creeley, legal director of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, who said that “no American should be comfortable with the president of the United States accusing a reporter of treason for critical reporting.”
New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof argued that Trump’s attack on Sanger was really a sign of weakness given the failures of his military campaign against Iran.
“President Trump unloading on David Sander reflects a combination of anxiety, insecurity, and desperation about the Iran War,” Kristof wrote. “David is the dean of national security reporters: experienced, meticulous, and fair. Blaming the messenger underscores that the reality itself is pretty bad.”
Kristof’s sentiment was echoed by former ABC News journalist Terry Moran, who wrote that he can’t “understand how anyone can see Trump here and not see weakness.”
Former Republican Illinois Congressman Joe Walsh said Trump’s interaction with Sanger exposed him as “the biggest fucking crybaby in all of human history.”
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WASHINGTON, D.C., UNITED STATES – MAY 5: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a press briefing at the White House on current issues in Washington DC, United States on May 5, 2026. ( Fatih Aktaş – Anadolu Agency )
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised questions regarding NATO amid the war with Iran, criticizing Spain for denying US aircraft access to its bases during the war, Anadolu reports.
“One of the reasons why I supported NATO was because it gave us basing rights. It allowed us to have bases in Europe that we could use in a contingency like something in the Middle East,” Rubio said in an interview with Fox News, aired Wednesday but taped earlier this week.
“So when you have NATO partners denying you the use of those bases – when the primary reason why NATO is good for America is now being denied to us by Spain, as an example – then what’s the purpose of the Alliance? It starts becoming a ‘they’re allies when they want to be’ kind of thing,” he added.
Spain has denied US military aircraft access to its air bases during the Iran conflict, prompting threats from Washington of a trade embargo, troop withdrawals and even suspension from NATO.
Clarifying that there are countries in NATO that are “very helpful” to the US, he said that “others like Spain have been atrocious, just horrifying.”
“What is the purpose of being in an alliance whose benefit to us is these basing rights if, in a time of conflict like the one we’ve had with Iran, they can deny us the use of those bases? So why are we there for? Only to protect them but not to further our national interest? This is a very legitimate question that we need to address,” Rubio said.
Donald Trump sings and dances, says that it’s fun to kill everyone …Orcas discuss rotting brain, front Orca says disinhibition and swearing are typical and common symptoms, small Orca speaks bluntly.
Coffee prices are displayed at a supermarket in Alhambra, California on May 12, 2026. (Photo by Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)
“The only thing Trump has made great again is inflation,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed continued upward pressure on prices, caused in large part by President Donald Trump’s war with Iran.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices paid by businesses, posted a year-over-year gain of 6% in April, the largest yearly increase since December 2022.
Energy prices, which have surged since Trump launched an unprovoked war with Iran in late February, played a large role in raising wholesale costs, as the report finds “more than three-quarters of the broad-based increase in April can be traced to a 7.8% jump in prices for final demand energy.”
However, energy prices aren’t solely responsible for rising wholesale prices, as the so-called “core” PPI, which excludes the costs of food and energy, posted a yearly increase of 4.4% in April, the largest since February 2023.
PPI is seen as an important gauge of future inflation for consumers, as companies typically pass the costs they pay for inputs onto consumers in the form of price increases.
“What’s in the pipeline now is headed straight for your grocery bill and gas tank,” Groundwork Collaborative added. “The pain isn’t over. It’s just beginning.”
CNN economics reporter Elisabeth Buchwald similarly predicted more hurt for US consumers in the coming months, arguing in a Wednesday article that a 6% increase in PPI shows “the pain will not be short-lived.”
“Even if the United States were to reach a deal with Iran today, it would still take months for shipments of oil held up by the blockade of the crucial Strait of Hormuz to reach American soil,” Buchwald explained. “And even then, it would likely be months—or potentially years—before Americans see gas prices return to levels before the war.”
Wednesday’s PPI report came one day after the Consumer Price Index showed that consumer prices in April rose by 3.8%, the largest yearly increase since May 2023.
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) reacted to the latest inflation data by ripping into the president’s policy decisions, including the Iran war and the global trade war he started shortly after returning to office last year.
“The only thing Trump has made great again is inflation,” Boyle, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, wrote in a social media post. “His disastrous policies—from his tariff taxes to his war in Iran—are making life even more expensive. We shouldn’t be surprised the guy who managed to bankrupt a casino isn’t an economic mastermind.”
Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) linked the increased prices to Trump’s desire to have Congress spend $1 billion of taxpayer money on his proposed White House ballroom.
“Oregonians need real relief from these high costs at the store and the pump,” wrote Dexter. “We must stop the war in Iran and refuse to pay for presidential vanity projects. Oregon families want peace. They need a break, not a ballroom.”
Orcas discuss how Trump was re-elected and him being an obviously insane, xenophobic Fascist.Donald Trump sings and dances, says that it’s fun to kill everyone …Keir Starmer explains that UK is participating defensively in Trump and Israel’s criminal war for Israel’s genocidal expansion in Iran and states that he supports Zionism “without qualification”. Keir Starmer said “I said it loud and clear – and meant it – that I support Zionism without qualification.” here: https://www.jewishnews.co.uk/keir-starmer-interview-i-will-work-to-eradicate-antisemitism-from-day-one/
