Climate change was a major factor behind the hot, dry weather that gave rise to the devastating LA fires, a scientific study has confirmed.
It made those weather conditions about 35% more likely, according to World Weather Attribution – globally recognised for their studies linking extreme weather to climate change.
The authors noted that the LA wildfire season is getting longer while the rains that normally put out the blazes have reduced.
The scientists highlight that these wildfires are highly complex with multiple factors playing a role, but they are confident that a warming climate is making LA more prone to intense fire events.
“Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires,” said Dr Clair Barnes, from Imperial College London, the study’s lead author.
“Drought conditions are more frequently pushing into winter, increasing the chance a fire will break out during strong Santa Ana winds that can turn small ignitions into deadly infernos.”
An aerial view of repair vehicles at sunset passing near beachfront homes that burned in the Palisades Fire on January 15, 2025 in Malibu, California. (Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images)
“Too much of the coverage has simply ignored the climate crisis altogether, an inexcusable failure when the scientific link between such megafires and a hotter, dryer planet is unequivocal,” wrote the founders of Covering Climate Now.
Covering the who, what, when, where, and why is journalism 101. So why are too few media outlets explaining the role that the climate crisis plays in the “why” behind the fires ravaging the Los Angeles region?
That’s the central question posed in an opinion piece published in The Guardian and elsewhere on Thursday authored by Mark Hertsgaard and Kyle Pope, the founders of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of over 500 news outlets aimed at improving climate coverage, of which Common Dreams is a part.
Hertsgaard and Pope wrote that “too much of the coverage has simply ignored the climate crisis altogether, an inexcusable failure when the scientific link between such megafires and a hotter, dryer planet is unequivocal.”
They added: “Too many stories have framed the fires as a political spat between U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and California elected officials instead of a horrifying preview of what lies ahead if humans don’t rapidly phase out fossil fuels. Too often, bad-faith disinformation has been repeated instead of debunked.”
Misinformation, in many instances stemming from right-leaning sources, have proliferated since the blazes broke out last week. Trump in a social media post appeared to point the finger at California’s statewide water management plans for fire hydrants running dry as firefighters fought the blazes last week. Southern California does have plenty water stored, but the city’s infrastructure was not designed to respond to a fire as the large as the ones that broke out, experts told PBS. Another user on the platform X falsely claimed that California turned away fire trucks from Oregon because of their emission levels, according to KQED.
Hertsgaard and Pope also called for outlets to name names. “Rarely have stories named the ultimate authors of this disaster: ExxonMobil, Chevron, and other fossil fuel companies that have made gargantuan amounts of money even as they knowingly lied about their products dangerously overheating the planet,” they wrote.
While the fires are still burning, researchers are already drawing the links between climate change and the blazes. In a thread on Bluesky, the climate scientist Daniel Swain explained the concept of climate “hydroclimate whiplash”—which southern California experienced in 2024—and how this can create ideal conditions for fires to spread.
The authors of the opinion piece noted that there have been bright spots when it comes to covering the fires with an eye toward the climate emergency and debunking false and misleading claims about the fires. The duo highlight a Time story that is titled “The LA fires show the reality of living in a world with 1.5C of warming” and a column written by the Los Angeles Times’ Sammy Roth, which began: “Los Angeles is burning. Fossil fuel companies laid the kindling.”
Hertsgaard and Pope wrote, “When a house is on fire, by all means let journalism show us the flames.”
“But tell us why the house is burning, too,” they added.
Image of the Green Party’s Carla Denyer on BBC Question Time.
Responding to new data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service showing that the average temperature in 2024 was 1.6C above preindustrial levels, Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer MP said:
“This news comes as uncontrollable wildfires rage in Los Angeles, and just months after unprecedented flooding in Spain killed over 200 people.
“The target of limiting warming to below 1.5 degrees was an attempt to prevent the deadliest effects of the climate crisis. Breaching that limit is catastrophic for humanity – and yet our leaders are sleepwalking into this deadly new future.
“We need to massively speed up the transition away from fossil fuels – that is the bottom line. In a world of 1.5 degree warming it’s unconscionable that the government is still letting some new North Sea oil and gas drilling go ahead – Starmer must revoke those consents and licenses immediately.
“But we also need to start thinking about how we make our communities more resilient in the face of the extreme weather that is now unavoidable. From flooding to extreme heat, our homes and neighbourhoods need to be fit for the future.”
October to April is normally considered to be the wet season in California, yet this January, the region is experiencing some of the most devastating fires it’s ever seen.
As of January 10, five major fires in and around Los Angeles have burned over 29,053 acres, leading to the evacuation of more than 180,000 people, the destruction of over 2,000 buildings (mainly homes), and an estimated damage cost of at least US$52 billion (£42.5 billion). Ten lives have been lost, and these numbers are expected to rise as the fires continue to burn.
The exact causes of each fire are still under investigation. However, several factors have contributed to their rapid spread and intensity.
The seasonal Santa Ana winds are particularly strong this year, bringing low humidity, dry air and high wind speeds. Southern California has received less than 10% of its average rainfall since October 2024, creating dry conditions that make the area highly vulnerable to fire.
Unusually wet winters in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 led to increased vegetation growth, providing more fuel for the fires. This cycle of wet and dry extremes, known as “hydroclimate whiplash”, is part of the increasingly intense climate cycles caused by climate change.
Hydroclimate whiplash can occur virtually anywhere. These cycles can cause extreme wildfires, such as those in California, where rapid vegetation growth is followed by drying. They can also exacerbate flooding when unusually heavy rains hit the dry-baked ground, then run off over the land rather than seeping in, leading to flash flooding.
In Los Angeles, some neighbourhoods have been almost entirely destroyed. Jae C. Hong / Alamy
The human impact of hydroclimate whiplash
Rapid transitions between extreme wet and dry conditions have significant and wide-ranging impacts on people, a focus of my academic research, affecting everything from public health to economic stability and social equity.
As we have seen in California, there is the immediate impact of loss of life, property and livelihoods. We have also seen this during whiplash-induced floods and landslides, such as those experienced across California in 2023 and east Africa in 2024, when years of drought were followed by weeks of rain.
Fires exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular diseases through their polluting smoke. Flooding creates conditions for waterborne illnesses such as cholera, leptospirosis or norovirus to rip through populations. Extreme swings in temperature can also create more heat-related illnesses, as human bodies struggle to adapt quickly. It is estimated that the health-related impacts of climate change will cost US$1.1 trillion by 2050.
And these impacts are not evenly distributed. While this month’s wildfires are affecting some of the richest communities in the US, it is generally low-income communities and vulnerable populations that are disproportionately affected, with limited resources to prepare for or recover from extreme events. Across the world, poorer populations are experiencing a 24%-48% increase in drought-to-downpour events, exacerbating their vulnerability and widening the health equity gap.
All these events and concerns also lead to mental health issues such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resulting from displacement and trauma. Such human impacts are harder to measure, and often under-reported.
Adaptation and resilience
As climate change intensifies hydroclimate whiplash events, the human impacts are expected to grow more severe. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts across multiple sectors, with a focus on both mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect human health, economic stability and social equity.
Governments and local authorities will need to implement co-management approaches for both drought and flood risks, alongside developing more flexible water management systems and infrastructure. Investing in natural infrastructure to enhance biodiversity and ecosystems will reduce risks to humans, both by restricting the effects of climate change and lowering the risks of fire and flooding.
As individuals we can often feel powerless, but environmental campaigns and movements have been highly successful in changing government policies. In the UK, the 2008 Climate Change Act and the net zero by 2050 legislation were the direct result of citizen lobbying and action, and the same can be said for numerous renewable energy transition policies around the world.
In California, we have seen the devastating effect of hydroclimate whiplash – and this won’t be the last we see. By calling on our governments to produce adaptation and resilience strategies that recognise climate change as a long-term human and economic risk factor, we can be more prepared for these events.
A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County, California on January 8, 2025. (Photo: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)
“The fires in Los Angeles aren’t just a tragedy, they’re a crime.”
As massive wildfires continued ripping through Los Angeles on Thursday, leaving utter devastation in their wake, climate campaigners said blame for the infernos ultimately lies with the mega-profitable oil and gas giants that have spent decades knowingly fueling the crisis that made the emergency in southern California possible.
“Los Angeles is burning. Entire neighborhoods have been wiped off the map. We are devastatingly unprepared for the climate that fossil fuel greed is creating,” the youth-led Sunrise Movement wrote on social media as several mostly uncontained fires wreaked havoc, supercharged by roaring winds and abnormally dry conditions.
“Oil and gas CEOs know they’re responsible for these disasters,” the group added. “But still, they choose to fight investments in renewable energy, spread propaganda, and bribe politicians into supporting $757 BILLION in fossil fuel subsidies.”
With appalling speed, the Los Angeles fires have so far scorched tens of thousands of acres, destroyed thousands of homes, and killed at least five people—a death toll that’s expected to rise.
“It’s like Armageddon,” said one resident, a sentiment echoed by a CNN reporter in Los Angeles.
“Everyone keeps saying ‘apocalyptic,'” said CNN‘s Leigh Waldman. “But that doesn’t begin to cover it.”
The Palisades fire, the largest of five blazes currently ravaging Los Angeles County, has already been deemed the most destructive in LA history.
Early estimates indicate the total economic damage of the Los Angeles fires could exceed $50 billion.
With a Thursday social media post featuring footage of the raging fires and damage in Los Angeles, Warren Gunnels, staff director for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), wrote: “They say the Green New Deal is expensive. Compared to what?”
Ben Jealous, executive director of the Sierra Club, said in a statement Wednesday that “these fires have taken lives and destroyed homes, livelihoods, and landscapes.”
“We are holding those affected by this disaster close in our hearts and appreciate the first responders who are bravely working to contain the fires. It is essential that federal and state authorities continue to provide these communities with all the resources and support they need to recover and heal,” said Jealous. “Barely a week into the new year, and fire season is here. This is not normal.”
“Time and again, we are witnessing fossil fuel-driven climate change heighten extreme weather, making wildfires increasingly common and increasingly destructive,” he continued. “We cannot be passive. We cannot elevate misinformation about what is needed to confront the worsening crisis. Leaders must take the action necessary to fund and support the home-hardening efforts that make our communities resilient.”
People watch smoke and flames from the Palisades Fire on January 7, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo: Tiffany Rose/Getty Images)
The Los Angeles fires come as states and localities across the United States are suing oil and gas companies for climate damages as extreme weather becomes increasingly frequent and destructive on a warming planet.
According to the Center for Climate Integrity, more than one in four Americans currently live in a community taking legal action against Big Oil, “underscoring the rapidly growing wave of calls to hold the oil and gas industry accountable for its decades-long climate deception and the harms it has caused.”
Aaron Regunberg, an attorney who is helping build a legal case against the fossil fuel industry, wrote Wednesday that the Los Angeles crisis “didn’t just happen.”
“A recent study found that nearly all of the observed increase in wildfire-burned area in California over the past half-century is attributable to anthropogenic climate change,” Regunberg, senior policy counsel with Public Citizen’s Climate Program, wrote on social media. “This devastation is the direct result of Big Oil’s conduct.”
Did you know that California has a law that makes it a crime to "recklessly cause a fire," as well as a victim restitution statute requiring those conficted of crimes to pay their victims for their economic losses?Big Oil did this. Prosecute them and make them pay.
Jamie Henn, director of Fossil Free Media, offered a similar assessment, writing that “the fires in Los Angeles aren’t just a tragedy, they’re a crime.”
“This is exactly the sort of disaster that Exxon’s own scientists predicted more than 50 years ago, but they spent billions to keep us hooked on fossil fuels,” Henn added. “It’s time to make polluters pay.”
