… on a quiet day, I can hear her breathing

Tag: climate change

  • LA fires show the human cost of climate-driven ‘whiplash’ between wet and dry extremes

    Spread the love
    Allison Dinner / EPA

    Doug Specht, University of Westminster

    October to April is normally considered to be the wet season in California, yet this January, the region is experiencing some of the most devastating fires it’s ever seen.

    As of January 10, five major fires in and around Los Angeles have burned over 29,053 acres, leading to the evacuation of more than 180,000 people, the destruction of over 2,000 buildings (mainly homes), and an estimated damage cost of at least US$52 billion (£42.5 billion). Ten lives have been lost, and these numbers are expected to rise as the fires continue to burn.

    The exact causes of each fire are still under investigation. However, several factors have contributed to their rapid spread and intensity.

    The seasonal Santa Ana winds are particularly strong this year, bringing low humidity, dry air and high wind speeds. Southern California has received less than 10% of its average rainfall since October 2024, creating dry conditions that make the area highly vulnerable to fire.

    Unusually wet winters in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 led to increased vegetation growth, providing more fuel for the fires. This cycle of wet and dry extremes, known as “hydroclimate whiplash”, is part of the increasingly intense climate cycles caused by climate change.

    Hydroclimate whiplash can occur virtually anywhere. These cycles can cause extreme wildfires, such as those in California, where rapid vegetation growth is followed by drying. They can also exacerbate flooding when unusually heavy rains hit the dry-baked ground, then run off over the land rather than seeping in, leading to flash flooding.

    In Los Angeles, some neighbourhoods have been almost entirely destroyed. Jae C. Hong / Alamy

    The human impact of hydroclimate whiplash

    Rapid transitions between extreme wet and dry conditions have significant and wide-ranging impacts on people, a focus of my academic research, affecting everything from public health to economic stability and social equity.

    As we have seen in California, there is the immediate impact of loss of life, property and livelihoods. We have also seen this during whiplash-induced floods and landslides, such as those experienced across California in 2023 and east Africa in 2024, when years of drought were followed by weeks of rain.

    Fires exacerbate respiratory and cardiovascular diseases through their polluting smoke. Flooding creates conditions for waterborne illnesses such as cholera, leptospirosis or norovirus to rip through populations. Extreme swings in temperature can also create more heat-related illnesses, as human bodies struggle to adapt quickly. It is estimated that the health-related impacts of climate change will cost US$1.1 trillion by 2050.

    But this number pails into insignificance against the projected US$12.5 trillion in economic losses worldwide due to climate change by 2050. Critical infrastructure, including water supply systems, wastewater treatment plants and transportation networks, is at risk of damage or destruction. Food insecurity and scarcity will also increase during hydroclimate whiplash events.

    And these impacts are not evenly distributed. While this month’s wildfires are affecting some of the richest communities in the US, it is generally low-income communities and vulnerable populations that are disproportionately affected, with limited resources to prepare for or recover from extreme events. Across the world, poorer populations are experiencing a 24%-48% increase in drought-to-downpour events, exacerbating their vulnerability and widening the health equity gap.

    All these events and concerns also lead to mental health issues such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), resulting from displacement and trauma. Such human impacts are harder to measure, and often under-reported.

    Adaptation and resilience

    As climate change intensifies hydroclimate whiplash events, the human impacts are expected to grow more severe. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated efforts across multiple sectors, with a focus on both mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect human health, economic stability and social equity.

    Governments and local authorities will need to implement co-management approaches for both drought and flood risks, alongside developing more flexible water management systems and infrastructure. Investing in natural infrastructure to enhance biodiversity and ecosystems will reduce risks to humans, both by restricting the effects of climate change and lowering the risks of fire and flooding.

    As individuals we can often feel powerless, but environmental campaigns and movements have been highly successful in changing government policies. In the UK, the 2008 Climate Change Act and the net zero by 2050 legislation were the direct result of citizen lobbying and action, and the same can be said for numerous renewable energy transition policies around the world.

    In California, we have seen the devastating effect of hydroclimate whiplash – and this won’t be the last we see. By calling on our governments to produce adaptation and resilience strategies that recognise climate change as a long-term human and economic risk factor, we can be more prepared for these events.

    Doug Specht, Reader in Cultural Geography and Communication, University of Westminster

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

  • Many species reach their heat limits at similar temperatures, leaving ecosystems at risk of sudden climate-driven collapse – new study

    Spread the love

    Tropical countries like Panama have lots of different tree species, but most may die at the same temperature. Martin Pelanek / shutterstock

    Joseph Williamson, UCL

    Last year, much of the world’s largest coral reef system was transformed into a white boneyard, featuring ghostly silhouettes of horns, brains and lettuces. The threat of sudden biodiversity loss from climate change had been realised through what’s known as a mass bleaching event.

    The abrupt loss of many species from a system is generally attributed to a breakdown in ecological functioning. As species are sequentially knocked out, the whole community becomes unstable, and it all comes crashing down. There is, however, another mechanism that may be at play.

    In our new paper, colleagues and I argue that despite the fact life on Earth displays such great variety, many species that live together appear to share remarkably similar thermal limits. That is to say, individuals of different species can tolerate temperatures up to similar points.

    Bleached coral
    Ghost brains and lettuces: corals turn white when the water is too warm. blueplanet97 / shutterstock

    This is deeply concerning as it suggests that, as ecosystems warm due to climate change, species will disappear from an ecosystem at the same time rather than gradually, resulting in sudden biodiversity loss. It also means that ecosystems may exhibit few symptoms of heat stress before a threshold of warming is passed and catastrophic losses occur.

    One way we can see this is by looking at how species are distributed across the globe to infer their maximum tolerance to heat. In doing so, it becomes apparent that species living in the same places tend to have similar tolerances, warning of potentially abrupt losses of biodiversity in the decades to come.

    This will be felt most acutely in the tropics, where maximum tolerances are closest to the temperatures already experienced by its inhabitants.

    Ground truthing

    These “global models” are rather abstract, however. Do we find the same phenomenon if we actually go out into the natural world and test this? Scientists can do just that by measuring the temperatures at which species stop being able to function normally by putting them through “heat trials” (think of it as a sauna for bugs or plants).

    The trees that make up a rainforest canopy in Panama are a good place to start. Surely, with all their weird and wonderful shapes, we might expect the wide variety of species here to have variable tolerances to warming? It turns out they don’t. By measuring photosynthetic rates in leaves, researchers have shown that the leaves of many tree species malfunction at roughly 50°C.

    But what about animals? To work out their thermal limits, biologists heat up creatures until they fall over to predict when they would become incapacitated by heatwaves in the wild.

    A few years ago, I conducted experiments on 45 species of dung beetle in south-east Asia, showing that almost half of them stopped functioning normally at around 39°C. When the lush forests of Borneo get too hot, we might expect half of their resident dung beetles to go extinct as temperatures reach this threshold. Without these diligent forest caretakers, the dung could really hit the fan.

    Dung beetles rolling some dung
    Ecologically crucial – and vulnerable to hot temperatures. Andries Combrinck / shutterstock

    Unfortunately, this pattern of clustered thermal tolerances appears widespread: we found further examples from tadpoles in South America, to insects in the mountains of Pakistan.

    Why species have similar heat limits

    My colleagues and I reviewed the literature to identify several mechanisms that may drive these similar warming tolerances. The first operates at the scale of our entire planet. The most common temperatures on Earth are relatively hot, as the tropics cover a much larger area than the poles. This could drive species to be adapted to the conditions that have been most prevalent, meaning many of them have the same tolerance to high temperature.

    Alternatively, we know that tolerances to heat evolve slowly compared to tolerances to the cold. We are unsure why this is the case, but it might simply be that it is highly costly (and therefore difficult to evolve) a change in molecular make-up that would allow a species to tolerate more heat. For example, at higher temperatures cell membranes become more fluid. Perhaps the costs of preventing cell death in such conditions are simply too high.

    Hope for the future

    Without deep and rapid cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, clustered thermal tolerances will continue to threaten the ecosystems on which humanity depends. Regardless of whether drivers occur at the scale of proteins or planets, understanding how and why species have similar thermal tolerances may give us clues as to how we can promote climate change resilience in the natural world.

    For example, we know that more distantly related groups of species will probably have more diverse thermal tolerances. A practical step we can take, therefore, is to protect a wide-ranging sample of the tree of life through conservation action. If distinct lineages of life are protected, we increase our chances of harbouring a diverse portfolio of responses to warming.

    Crucially, by advancing our understanding of why, and in what contexts, thermal tolerances are more similar, we can predict where and when catastrophic declines may occur. Are they more similar in reefs or rainforests, in Africa or Antarctica? When we answer such questions, we can intervene in at-risk systems, safeguarding the future of our fragile planet.

    Joseph Williamson, Research Fellow in Biological Responses to Climate Change, UCL

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

  • A quarter of freshwater animals threatened with extinction, finds major new study

    Spread the love

    Iwan Jones, Queen Mary University of London

    For far too long, the decline in the biodiversity of our rivers and lakes has been out of sight and out of mind. As a freshwater ecologist I have long felt frustrated as conservation and research is dominated by land and sea species, even though our rivers, lakes, ponds and other wetlands host a hugely disproportionate amount of the world’s biodiversity in their relatively small area.

    The first comprehensive assessment of the risk of extinction of freshwater species, now published in the journal Nature, is set to change this. The scientists involved in the new study used the recently completed “red list” for freshwater fishes, and the one for dragonflies and damselflies.

    Red lists are official inventories of conservation status compiled by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). They combined this with data from the previously published red list for freshwater crabs, crayfishes and shrimps. In total, they assessed more than 23,000 species.

    The authors conclude that close to a quarter (24%) of freshwater species are threatened with extinction. That is, they have been officially assessed as vulnerable, endangered, critically endangered or extinct in the wild.

    These include the critically endangered European eel, and the endangered white-clawed crayfish, both of which were abundant in the streams of my childhood.

    small crayfish on river weed
    Once abundant, now endangered: a juvenile white clawed crayfish. valda butterworth / shutterstock

    There is some uncertainty in the estimates, especially as there is insufficient data to establish the extinction risk for some species. The authors use an accepted and robust method to address this uncertainty but note that this lack of data affects a substantially larger proportion of freshwater species than those that live on land.

    In fact, despite indications that a greater proportion of freshwater mollusc species are at risk of extinction, the authors could not include molluscs in their analysis as so many species are data deficient.

    Furthermore, we have only the most rudimentary understanding of the status of the wide array other freshwater species, particularly invertebrates such as mayflies, stoneflies, or various beetles, many of which are highly sensitive to pollution. Although this new study represents an important step forward in our understanding, it should also act as a clarion call to galvanise efforts to fill these critical data gaps.

    Freshwater species overlooked

    While shocking, this figure of 24% of freshwater species threatened with extinction is comparable with the estimate for predominantly land-based amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals, of which 23% are threatened. Comprehensive assessments of birds, amphibians and mammals have been available for over 20 years, with repeat assessments now available.

    Rivers and lakes support whole ecosystems with all sorts of species. Martine Liu 58 / shutterstock

    As the IUCN’s red lists are used to document trends in biodiversity and therefore to inform national and global strategy, data on terrestrial vertebrates has dominated conservation science and policy. Hence, to date, global environmental governance has focused on land and sea ecosystems, despite evidence that freshwaters require distinct management needs.

    With this assessment, it is now clear that policy will have to be developed that protects and delivers improvements for freshwater species. That means thinking about entire river basins as a whole, rather than the immediate area occupied by the species.

    It also means considering things like how rivers and lakes are connected and how the water available varies from season to season. Bodies of freshwater are like islands in a sea of land. Facilitating movement between these islands can help preserve species, particularly where they disappear seasonally.

    Most species face multiple threats

    In the new study, pollution, dams, water abstraction, land-use change, over-exploitation, invasive species and disease feature prominently as threats, with most species impacted by more than one. Freshwaters in areas of limestone and other porous calcium-rich rocks host consistently more threatened species than would be expected, highlighting the importance of chalk streams for example, where pressure due to exploitation of water resources and pollution is pronounced.

    Chalk streams are valuable habitats for salmon, trout, otters, kingfishers and many other species. Tony Martin Long / shutterstock

    While current efforts to hold UK water companies responsible for reducing inputs of sewage to rivers and lakes are commendable, water use efficiency and run-off should be considered throughout the decision-making process, from building design and town planning though to our individual daily use of water. Nature-based solutions such as tree planting or wetland protection offer a way forward that simultaneously benefit biodiversity and human well-being.

    A lack of understanding can no longer be used as an excuse for inaction. As the authors of the new study point out, freshwaters support more than 10% of all known species, including about a third of vertebrates and half of fishes, while covering less than 1% of the surface of the Earth.

    Many of the freshwater species considered in this study are socially and economically important. Freshwater fish provide an important source of protein for many human societies, and species such as Atlantic salmon support a fishing-tourism industry critical to many areas with limited opportunities to generate income.

    Other species, while superficially unimportant to human society, thrive in clean water. The widespread decline in these species reflects increasing pollution and other pressures, which does not bode well for our society in the face of climate change and diminishing water availability.

    Iwan Jones, Freshwater Ecologist and Head of the River Communities Group, Queen Mary University of London

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

  • ‘This Is Unprecedented’: Several Horrific Wildfires Ravage Los Angeles

    Spread the love

    Original article by Jake Johnson republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

    Flames from the Palisades fire burn homes on January 7, 2025 in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California. (Photo: Eric Thayer/Getty Images)

    “There is no ‘firefighting’ in these kinds of conditions,” said one meteorologist. “There is only saving as many lives as possible and getting the heck out of the fire’s way.”

    Several major wildfires burned out of control in California’s Los Angeles County on Wednesday as roaring winds fueled the rapid spread of the blazes, forcing tens of thousands to evacuate as state, local, and federal officials mobilized resources to confront the emergency.

    Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass wrote on social media late Tuesday that the city is “working aggressively” to stem the wildfires, which scientists and government officials characterized as uniquely devastating.

    “Emergency officials, firefighters, and first responders are all hands on deck through the night to do everything possible to protect lives,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said early Wednesday. The governor noted that more than 1,400 firefighting personnel have been deployed to “combat these unprecedented fires.”

    The Palisades, Eaton, and Hurst fires broke out on Tuesday. It quickly exploded amid what the National Weather Service described as “extremely critical fire weather,” with wind gusts up to 99 mph propelling the devastating blazes. The extreme winds forced emergency crews to ground aircraft that were working to contain the fires.

    “For some context, fire crews are up against near hurricane-force winds occurring mid-winter in rugged terrain during a drought at night,” wrote meteorologist Eric Holthaus. “There is no ‘firefighting’ in these kinds of conditions. There is only saving as many lives as possible and getting the heck out of the fire’s way.”

    “The emergence of extreme wintertime wildfires in California presents one of those classic ‘this is climate change’ moments.”

    The Eaton fire, which broke out Tuesday evening in the Pasadena area, “spread so rapidly that staff at a senior living center had to push dozens of residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a parking lot,” The Los Angeles Times reported.

    “The residents waited there in their bedclothes as embers fell around them until ambulances, buses, and even construction vans arrived to take them to safety,” the newspaper added.

    The three fires have together burned thousands of acres so far and destroyed or endangered tens of thousands of homes and buildings, according to Newsom’s office. So far, at least 19 school districts have announced complete or partial closures due to the fires.

    Video footage posted to social media showed residents watching in horror as flames surrounded their homes:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1876845562328146405

    Sorry, this content could not be embedded.
    X

    Another video shows residents attempting to salvage as many belongings as possible before fleeing:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1876845004745748780

    Sorry, this content could not be embedded.
    X

    “There has been a recent massive increase in wildfires in California but really, a fire this big in January? This is unprecedented,” scientist Hayley Fowler wrote on social media. “One of many extreme events fueled by the climate crisis.”

    Holthaus wrote Tuesday that Southern California is “facing a rare and dangerous juxtaposition of extreme winds and midwinter drought,” the meteorologist described as “a worrying example of the state’s expanding wildfire threat as climate change worsens.”

    “The National Weather Service defines ‘extremely critical’ fire weather as sustained winds over 30 mph and relative humidity of less than 10% in drought conditions and temperatures warmer than 70 degrees,” Holthaus observed. “This is the first time in history these criteria have been met anywhere in the United States during January.”

    “The emergence of extreme wintertime wildfires in California,” he added, “presents one of those classic ‘this is climate change’ moments: A specific set of weather conditions are now occurring in such a way to produce the potential for rare disasters to become much more common.”

    Original article by Jake Johnson republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

  • Humanity’s Chance to Reverse Amazon’s Slide Toward Tipping Point Is ‘Shrinking’

    Spread the love

    Original article by Eloise Goldsmith republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).

    This aerial view shows Amazon forest degradation in the Menkragnoti Indigenous Territory in Altamira, Pará state, Brazil, on August 28, 2019. (Photo: Joao Laet/AFP/Getty Images)

    The world’s largest rainforest showed “ominous indicators,” including wildfires and extreme drought, in 2024.

    The Amazon, sometimes called the “lungs of the planet,” this year showed signs of further inching toward a much-feared tipping point, threatening the very existence of the world’s largest rainforest.

    Rampant wildfires and extreme drought ravaged large parts of the Amazon in 2024. The fires and dry conditions were fueled by deforestation and the El Niño weather pattern, and also made worse by climate change, according to the World Economic Forum. “The number of fires reached its highest level in 14 years this September,” the group reported in October.

    Drought has also impacted the Amazon River, causing one of the river’s main tributaries to drop to its lowest level ever recorded, according to October reporting from The Associated Press. The drop in the river has negatively impacted local economies and food supplies.

    Andrew Miller, advocacy director at Amazon Watch, told the AP last week that the fires and droughts experienced across the Amazon in 2024 “could be ominous indicators that we are reaching the long-feared ecological tipping point.”

    “Humanity’s window of opportunity to reverse this trend is shrinking, but still open,” he said.

    The Amazon plays a vital role in keeping the planet healthy. 150-200 billion tons of carbon are stored in the Amazon, and it also carries 20% of the earth’s fresh water to sea.

    According to the World Economic Forum, if the Amazon tipping point is reached, “it will release billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere through fires and plants dying off. This would further exacerbate climate change and make the 1.5°C goal impossible to achieve. It would also alter weather patterns, which would impact agricultural productivity and global food supplies.”

    A paper published in the journal Nature in February indicates that up to half of the rainforest could hit a tipping point by the middle of the century. “We estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change,” explained the researchers behind the paper.

    However, it wasn’t all bad news out of the Amazon in 2024. According to the AP, the amount of deforestation in Brazil and Colombia declined in this year. In Brazil, which houses the largest chunk of the Amazon, forest loss dropped 30.6% compared to the year prior, bringing it to the lowest level of destruction in nearly a decade.

    The improvement is an about-face from a couple of years ago, when the country registered 15-year high of deforestation during the leadership of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil is now led by the left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who—despite presiding over this drop in deforestation—has also come under scrutiny, as AP noted, by environmentalist for backing projects that they argue could harm the environment.

    Original article by Eloise Goldsmith republished from Common Dreams under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0).